Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news China and Japan may be swapping places.
But first, following a much better than expected rise in October, and driven by fast-rising credit card debt, the American consumer debt levels corrected in November, falling -US$7.5 bln. Again, it was a sharpish pullback in credit card debt that drove the surprise November result. On the other hand, nonrevolving credit, which includes car loans and mortgages, saw a still-modest +2% rise, after small increases of +0.7% in October and +0.4% in September.
There were announced job cuts involving 39,000 American workers in December, much lower than November and only marginally different to December a year ago. For the full year employers announced 761,500 job cuts, the most since 2020, and prior to that pandemic year, the most since 2009. In 2024, 134,000 of those cuts were in the tech sector. But in terms of the 160 mln US labour market, these announced annual cut levels are a truly tiny 0.4%.
Across the Pacific in China, we noted yesterday that authorities there seem to have instituted a hard peg for the official yuan exchange rate to the USD. Now they have to defend that in open markets. Overnight they announced a massive ¥60 bln bill issue in Hong Kong in an effort to build demand for their under-pressure currency.
The battle against deflation is far from over too. China’s annual consumer inflation rate edged down to +0.1% in December from +0.2% in November, aligning with estimates and marking the lowest rise since March. It is now at a nine-month low. The latest result came amid a slight decline in food prices and a modest rise in non-food costs. But beef prices were down -13.8% for the year, lamb prices down -6.1%, and milk prices were down -1.6%.
Meanwhile, producer prices fell by -2.3% in December from a year ago, but that was their softest fall in four months. It was the expected fall.
And perhaps we should also note that, although there was little movement in the past 24 hours, the 30 year Chinese bond yield at 1.89% is now lower than the equivalent Japanese government bond at 2.30%. While it is not the case for other tenors, the shifting directions are the same - China down and Japan up. China is turning Japanese, and Japan is shifting out of its hard deflationary cycle.
In Japan, wages rose +3% in November from the same month a year ago, rising from the +2.6% increase seen in October and higher than market forecasts of a +2.7% gain. However, real wages adjusted for inflation and a key indicator of consumers' purchasing power fell by -0.3% year-on-year in November.
In India, they have downgraded their fast economic growth estimates. After growing +8.2% in the year to June 2024, they now say that will 'slow' to +6.4% in the year to June 2025. Apart from the pandemic period, that will be their slowest expansion in more than a decade. While these expansion rates are still high by any standard, the worrying component for them is the fast slowdown in private investment
From the EU there was some positive economic news. Retail sales volumes - that is, after considering inflation's impact - were up +1.5% in November and to their best level since September 2022.
In the UK, there are bond yield shifts too, some of them sharp. Their 30 yr Government bond is up to 5.46%, their 10 year up to 4.88%. That is more than +100 bps higher than a year ago. In just the past month their 10 yr is up from 4.37%. These 10 year benchmark levels are higher than either New Zealand or Australian equivalents now, and the shift up has caught financial market attention.
And here's an odd item from the UK. A minister in their government is the niece of the recently-ousted and disgraced Bangladeshi president. The Bangladeshi's are investigating her for her part in the corruption in their country. And that UK politician is City Minister, a job that involves battling financial corruption in London markets.
Australian retail sales rose +4.1% in November from the same month a year ago, a positive 'real' gain. They were up stronger than that national average in Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia. But they were only up +2.9% in NSW.
Australian exports rose to AU$43.8 bln in November from October in a recent rising trend and boosted by strong rural exports. But at that level they are still -5.0% lower than in November 2023. Imports were also lower in November from a year ago. And their merchandise trade surplus was -AU$4.5 bln lower than in November 2023.
The rush to get product from China to the US is in full swing now and commanding a premium on containerised freight rates. Those routes saw a +13% jump last week, which pushed the overall market up +2% for the week. Freight rates for other key routes are not on the move however. This special situation is expected to reverse within the next two weeks, and the global trade system's immediate outlook is quite uncertain. Bulk cargo rates fell -8% last week, and are now back to levels that prevailed in the mid-1980s.
And an update on the US East Coast and Gulf waterfront labour dispute. The automation issue is settled and another strike is averted. On balance, employers lost. Markets have repriced equities lower for listed port operators. So US waterfront costs will stay higher than in most other port jurisdictions.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.69%, and up +1 bp from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive by +40 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +27 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is marginally less positive, now by +36 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.54% and down -2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.63% and up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65% and down -1 bp.
Wall Street is up +0.2% on the S&P500 in Thursday trade. Overnight, European markets closed about +0.6% higher, except Frankfurt which was -0.1% lower. And Tokyo fell another -0.9% yesterday, Hong Kong was down -0.2% and Shanghai was down -0.6%. Singapore also ended down -0.6%. The ASX200 closed its Thursday trade down -0.2% while the NZX50 down -0.8%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2669/oz and up +US$18 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are back up +50 USc from this time yesterday at just on US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$77.
The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 56 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.9 but really little-changed from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,218 and down -0.5% from this time on yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.9%.
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68 Comments
Cheap/near free money is gone, finished.
- Unless Depression occurs, which cannot be ruled out with the Chinese walking dead economy, with their 80 million housing unit overbuild, is still to pay the financial grim reaper...... CCP Govt economic life support and CCP Govt oxygen can only keep the Chinese economy "just alive" in the forever coma, for so long.....
Meanwhile for the humble Aotearoans, their Housing Ponzi - pop, then flaccidity, is set to continue, with the balloon deflating hiss into 2027.
Trump the first time or covid or both obviously put some skids under China from A to Z aggravated immensely by the consequential pull back by the international community at large. Being pals with Russia, Iran and similar doesn’t exactly compensate although of course the weaker Russia makes itself the more dominant China becomes in the “friendship.” Therefore the prospect of another four years of Trump and the disquieting presence of another nasty virus outspreading must be somewhat unsettling for the powers that be?
prophesying a chinese collapse has been called for by many for decades while there manafactoring workforce of 113m make technological advancements. Meanwhile the the impending santions on DJI, USA agencies are voiced concern they wont be able to perform some tasks as there is no local drones with the same capabilities, on the EV front, Xiaomi a phone makers first production electric car set the fasted lap time for a 4 door at Nürburgring.
I support anything that anyone personally can do to reduce climate change..but we have probably jumped the shark.
LA on the front line - must be all those Hummers and RAMS doing the shopping?
A carbon footprint is the total amount of greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide and methane) that are generated by our actions. The average carbon footprint for a person in the United States is 16 tons, one of the highest rates in the world. Globally, the average carbon footprint is closer to 4 tons. (NZ 6.31)
Never let ecotards or politicians near forest management. Ecotard policies are so moronic they generate more CO2 from poor forest management than they ever save from dipshit EV and paper straw policies.
"In this short communication, we estimate that California's wildfire carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions from 2020 are approximately two times higher than California's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions since 2003. Without considering future vegetation regrowth, CO2e emissions from the 2020 wildfires could be the second most important source in the state above either industry or electrical power generation.
...Our analysis suggests that significant societal benefits could accrue from larger investments in improved forest management and stricter controls on new development in fire-prone areas at the wildland-urban interface."
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749122011022
I'm not going to debate the carbon position of all this. The fact of the matter is, fuel needs to be managed in the context of forest and scrub land near urban population with a history of fire. Australia has learnt a few harsh lessons in what happens if back burn is not carried out (yes, prevented by environmentalists). The Santa Ana is a fierce wind, it was forecast, the fire was not a zero possibility given the winds and fuel load.
The LA mayor was in Ghana apparently, the fire department seemingly asleep at the wheel. I would be suing LA for misfeasance/malfeasance.
Reducing fuel load by controlled burn, yeah great. If you had read more into the story you'd see there has been no opportunity for such actions! The Southern Californian wet season is absent this year and we're already past the mid point. Water supplies for fire fighting are low and bush is tinder dry. Low humidity, combined with the Santa ana winds and the place was a disaster in waiting!
Last year was one of the wettest on record in LA, the water is not captured though and allowed to run-off to the sea. But yeah, ok.
Back burn is the most effective method of preventing this sort of catastrophe, if that doesn't line up with you view of the world science doesn't really care.
Controlled burns may not happen but you can rely on government to be very efficient in areas that matter to them - even in an emergency!
That may be the case, I don't know. Palm Tree said there was no wet season and that is totally incorrect.
Backburning may not have prevented this, we aren't there and it's too early. What we do know is that it is one of the best methods to prevent this and it wasn't carried out. You'd be asking questions if you lost your house, that's for sure.
Try again TK. Do try to keep up.
"Los Angeles usually gets several inches of rain by now, halfway into the rainy season, but it’s only recorded a fifth of an inch downtown since July, its second driest period in almost 150 years of record-keeping. The rest of Southern California is just as bone-dry."
Absolutely. I've helped fight 2 bush fires , nothing scarier. In rural bush areas it would be all over before the fire brigade got there.
I don't really think there are any real answers, it's one of those forces of nature we can't really eliminate, reduce and contain if possible.
In L.A , too many people, living a water using lifestyle in a desert. I've kinda taken an interest in the restoration of the L.A river, in my opinion the best thing they could do is use seawater for all non food plantings , swimming pools, toilets etc. The soil / groun dwaters fkd anyway, plant plants that can adapt to salt.
Here you go TK.
Rainfall totals(in) Central LA 2024-2025, July 0.00, August 0.00, September 0.00, October 0.00, November 0.14, December 0.02.
https://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we08aa.php
Yep, sure is wet. :-)
You can learn about it here chap.
"A new report co-authored by The Nature Conservancy and Willis Towers Watson, using our natural catastrophe modelling, shows that prescribed burns and the removal of smaller trees and other vegetation in overgrown forests (i.e.: ecological forestry) can significantly reduce the costs of insurance in areas at risk of wildfires, providing a better opportunity for insurers to continue writing insurance in high-risk areas.
...The wildfire risk reduction benefits of ecological forestry for insurance are quantifiable, significant, and far-reaching."
https://www.wtwco.com/-/media/wtw/insights/2021/07/wildfire-resilience-…
We are all trapped in fossil culture Beanie. Using zero product from that industry is not possible unless living on a hand made park bench and you know it! Virtue signalling deserves ire,. but less so than the burner meme drones "CO2 is plant food" and "you are the problem if you use a plastic toothbrush".
Bond markets looking twitchy. Investors are not yet outright rejecting the ever increasing sums being borrowed by governments (mostly to fund their large and expanding non-productive administrative state sectors), but it is plausible these dynamics are a nascent stage of investor sentiment along those lines.
As Los Angeles firefighters battle the blazes, rightwing media and commentary has focused instead on diversity within the fire department, saying it’s to blame for the devastation.
“Meet Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley,” X account Libs of TikTok, known for spreading anti-LBGTQ rhetoric, posted. “She boasts about being the first female and LGBTQ fire chief in the LA Fire Department. Promoting a culture of DEI is her priority. Does this make you feel safer?”
Crowley’s identity and attempts to diversify the firefighting force feature heavily into headlines about the fire department’s response to the fires, mingled with claims of mismanagement by LA mayor Karen Bass and California governor Gavin Newsom. It’s a common tactic on the far right to bring up DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) during crises and say it’s to blame.
In another tweets, Libs of TikTok, which has nearly 4 million followers, wrote: “DEI will get people k*lled. DEI must DIE.”
The account also laid out a variety of rightwing criticisms in one tweet to deflect from the role climate change plays in increasing wildfires. “Don’t you hate it when climate change appoints a DEI hire to run the fire dept, gives away fire equipment to Ukraine, stops critical controlled burns, defunds the fire dept, refuses to build more water reservoirs and store water, cancels fire insurance, mismanages forests and brush, and fires firefighters for refusing an experimental vaccine?”
Elon Musk, the owner of X and a frequent spreader of misinformation, claimed: “They prioritized DEI over saving lives and homes.” In a response to Libs of TikTok, he wrote: “Wild theory: maybe, just maybe, the root cause wasn’t climate change?”
The anti-wokesters are proper retards it seems, they'll fall for any old shit the fossil fuel lobby throws their way. Wildfires are now apparently due to **checks notes** Diversity and Inclusion.
I guess this is what happens when reality hits your ideology, copium and make stuff up. It reminds me of how the Roman's would attribute a failure in battle to bad omens or ignoring the gods, not a failure of leadership.
As Los Angeles firefighters battle the blazes, rightwing media and commentary has focused instead on diversity within the fire department, saying it’s to blame for the devastation.
Well yes. When you prioritize DEI over public services, what do you expect? The thesis of civic-minded, educated liberals supposedly being able to run things better is on display in Cali. And it's not a good look.
The problem is when the people in charge are superficially civic-minded and intelligent. They have the correct woke opinions and aesthetic. There is a tendency, among many on the left and center-left, to think these people are the people they claim to be, but they're not. They're dreadfully superficial. Plenty of examples here in Aotearoa of what I'm talking about.
What we need to learn is not that there's something inherently wrong or wrong-headed with the woke leadership. But the ruling elite is more like an aristocracy -- hostile to its subordinates and sealed off from them. An aristocracy feels no sense of obligation to the body politic.
It's not necessarily a struggle pitting left against right (although the partisans would say it is). It's a struggle pitting the liberal against the illiberal faction -- those who embrace democracy vs those who do not.
The aristocracy is deeply illiberal and self-serving and, really, militant about policing its interests at the expense of everyone else. An establishment steeped in the democratic tradition welcomes pluralism, upward mobility, the constant churn of an open society.
Another nutty comment - something in the water today, do you really think your favourite word "woke" is the cause of these fires?
'Woke' is a better word to use than 'progressive'. Woke used to mean something, but it is more commonly used as an adjective to describe the superficial nature of the liberal elite (or aristocracy) and its followers - more about appearances than actually achieving anything. The preparation for and response to the LA fires illustrates this.
The public has been poorly served in LA and in California. You may disagree. That's up to you. The elite / aristocracy has been falling like flies globally, particularly those of the 'woke' ilk because of their failures. And what I say is not that out of step with wider public opinion.
Remind me again what the ethnic and gender breakdown is of the LA Fire Department.
For your racist and sexist comment to make sense you must be able to prove there is a disproportionate number of non-white and women in the department right now.
Go on, give the breakdown.
Holding woke opinions isn't the problem - in themselves they are generally a good thing. The problem is allowing those opinions, which are largely symbolic, to substitute for doing anything at all of substance to fix the vast injustices and inefficiencies in our society - which of course most politicians and their social circles benefit from.
I'm not well informed about whether the government of California has fallen short in this particular case and frankly I don't trust many sources to give an impartial opinion on that. But without a doubt woke governments as a whole are failing to address our major issues, and that's a big part of why they're so unpopular (although I acknowledge that some there are some genuinely hateful bigots out there too).
. But without a doubt woke governments as a whole are failing to address our major issues, and that's a big part of why they're so unpopular (although I acknowledge that some there are some genuinely hateful bigots out there too).
I also think it's a bit ripe to attribute the downfalls of Biden, Harris, Trudeau, Ardern, Starmer, Albo etc to "bigotry".
That in itself how many woke / progressives think - that this lot are somehow exceptional, even God-like leaders but have been taken down by some vast right wing conspiracy operating throughout the internet.
So JC, despite attributing the wildfires to the woke LA Fire Department you are not willing to provide evidence that the LA Fire Department is in fact populated by non-whites and women.
How strange that an organisation dominated by white males is now considered woke. Seems like woke is whatever you want it to mean so long as it allows you to blame anything other than the actual cause (climate change).
For a supposedly independent thinker JC you sure seem to be sucked in by fossil fuel paid content.
There is a growing body of evidence that individuals are being promoted to positions beyond their experience, and possibly ability. In the corporate world it doesn't really matter as most companies run themselves. In key roles, Head of Secret Service for example, it does and there are consequences.
I've seen those clips, are you suggesting they are not real? The 3 females running the LA fire dept had DEI as their priority.
I'm happy to debate this, but increasingly large companies are ditching this agenda.
Couple that to the empire building and the problem(s) balloon. The more likeminded executive that can be installed under their command, all the more head nodding and acclamation and most importantly one’s package bettered. Suggest this element of management provides much explanation as to the explosion in public service numbers under the previous government.
Like most things, too much of a good thing is bad. Empirical evidence tells us diversity of thought and experience is good in complex problem-solving situations but actually negative in repetitive, simple tasks. Diversity by itself can actually be negative. Social justice and equity, yes I'm all for this, but you achieve it by increasing access to education and training and bringing people through at graduate and grass routes.
The moment I saw those 3 female fire chiefs talking about how DEI was their priority, you know it's a ticking bomb.
Pacific Palisades median income is 200k (avge closer to 359k) paying 9% income tax and 1.17% property tax rate on a median home price of 3.5 million.
Imagine those poor people watching their homes burn to the ground with no water for fire hydrants.
As of January 2025, the average annual salary for a Division Chief at the Los Angeles Fire Department is approximately $855,537, with a range between $650,491 and $1,092,028.
https://www.salary.com/research/company/los-angeles-fire-department/div…
With 70% of Los Angeles fire insurance removed, will we see ripple effects where the bankruptcies suddenly cause insolvencies at local and regional banks?
Consider that many of those houses that burned down (or still burning) are collateral to mortgages. What do borrowers do? Keep paying the mortgage without their house to live in anymore?
Logically many will file for personal bankruptcy and banks won’t have collateral to foreclose. When insurance policies are pulled during the life of a mortgage, the borrower is responsible for finding a new policy. As many sources show, many insurance policies were pulled right before these big fires started and many were likely still uninsured.
Mortgages are underwritten on the whole value of the property. It's not unreasonable to think the value of the land is being inflated 2x+ (well it's reality). Also, until safety is restored, many will be unwilling to rebuild there for years and insurance companies unlikely to insure those properties, except at exorbitant premiums.
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