Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend with news the economic world its returning after the end of year holiday season, and finding the 2024 worries are still here in 2025.
First up however, the first post-New Year holiday week back will be a relatively quiet one, but there are still some important things to cover, and few of the key ones are local. But the week culminates with the December US non-farm payrolls report in the US, and that will increasingly dominate how the week goes. Markets currently expect a modest +150,000 rise in US jobs. That is close to 'average' over the past ten years. But don't forget that is the seasonally-adjusted result. Actual payroll shrink in the month usually, and that average over the past ten years is by -160,000. That is what we will be watching, because fewer actual people employed could have an outsized impact on metrics like retail sales and the like.
The US will also release December services PMIs. A slightly softer expansion is expected. And China will release its important new yuan loan data, and the expectations are for another weak result. Eyes will also be on India's industrial production data, something that has been softish recently.
Just as important for us, we will get more December real estate activity data this week. We will also get another full dairy auction on Wednesday, and the intervening Pulse results for both SMP and WMP have shown a marked softness since the last full auction event. And Barfoots are likely to release their December results later in the week.
Over the weekend, the FAO World Food Price Index reported a -0.5% fall in December from an upwardly revised November. Dairy prices fell -0.7% but meat prices rose +0.4%. Overall this index is +6.6% higher than year-ago levels with dairy up +17% and meat up +7.0% on that annual basis.
On the commodity front, both lithium and iron ore prices slipped on concerns about the prospects for the Chinese economy. The Shanghai stock exchange fell yet again, by -1.6% on Friday to be down a very sharp -5.5% for the week. And the benchmark yield for Chinese government bonds slumped to a new record low of 1.60% for the 10 year. The yuan fell, testing its lowest level since 2007 after their central bank stopped defending 7.3 to the USD.
So China is ramping up its subsidy program for consumer durables, trying to spark some extra consumption activity.
And China's central bank said late Friday during a quarterly meeting of its monetary policy committee that it will cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at the “proper time”.
So China is starting the new year on the back foot.
Across all reporting countries, the global factory PMI contracted slightly in December, shifting from the slight expansion in November. Good expansions in India, Taiwan, Canada, and China (among eight others) was offset and more by retreats in the US, Australia and especially the Europe (among seven others). On balance, it was soft new order levels that is turning the global tide.
In the US, a good rise in new orders saw the widely-watched ISM factory PMI rise by 0.9 points in December from the previous month to record only a very minor contraction and very much better than was expected. The result reflected the softest pace of contraction in the US manufacturing sector since March. Oddly, the narrative for the internationally-benchmarked S&P/Markit PMI was the inverse with weaker new orders and slipping output. However, both surveys landed at the same spot, reporting a very minor contraction.
US vehicle sales ended the year on a strong note, running at a 16 mln annualised rate. EV sales accounted for 9.0% of those, and a surge in demand for EVs helped heavyweight GM claim the top spot for all cars and now second only to Tesla in EVs. Tesla slipped back in the final quarter. (For reference, NZ EV sales in 2024 were 7.3%.)
Over the weekend, two Fed governors (Daly and Kugler) both reiterated that the battle to control US inflation is not yet won. Another was more positive, but thought restrictive rates should still stay in place until things are clearer.
In Canada, their factory PMI delivered a solid performance with good new order levels and rising output contributing to a rising expansion.
In Australia, SE NSW and NE Victoria have been hit by a headwave with temperatures as high as 45oC. But a wind-change has relieved things today. Bushfire season is well underway there.
Containerised freight rates rose marginally last week (+3% overall), built on a +7% surge on transPacific rates from China to the USWC. Traders are trying to beat what are expected to be new tariffs from the incoming US Administration. Bulk cargo rates stopped falling last week, essentially holding at an 18 month low.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.60%, and up +1 bp from Saturday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive by +32 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is a bit more positive, now by +24 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is much more positive, now by +30 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.39% and down -8 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.60% and down another -1 bp to a new record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.52% and unchanged from both Saturday and from this time last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$2639/oz and little-changed (-US$1) from this time Saturday.
Oil prices are unchanged from this time Saturday at just on US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$76.50. Both are up +US$2.50 since this time last week and at a two-month high.
The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.1 USc and unchanged from yesterday, but down -20 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps to 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.8 and down -10 bps from this time Saturday - but essentially unchanged from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$98,070 and up +0.1% from this time on Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.8%.
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59 Comments
I have watched a lot international news over the weekend. Starting with the situation in South Korea, I tried to see both sides. I watched various podcasts about the USA - China relationship, the war in Israel and the Russia - Ukraine war from both sides and the tensions in Taiwan. I tried to watch various news sources such as Al Jazeera, First Post and Vion, DW and BBC, some US and Asian channels.
The only conclusion I came to, is that we live in an age of overinformation where we can find anything to suit our beliefs, but where it sadly is near impossible to get to the "facts". (edited)
It makes for a convoluted world and ever-increasingly polarised opinions as everyone thinks their opinion is based on THE truth, which as you allude, is so hard to ascertain. Imagine being born today and the level of information the kids are bombarded with and have available to them at their fingertips compared to even 20 years ago. Add in social media, the trend of selling services by subscription, and I feel for the kids now. The world has never been out to get them so much, pilfer their pockets and more so their minds, than today.
Retired Army Officer Says Matthew Livelsberger Emailed Him About Car Bomb
And then you have mind blowers like this in the news that seemingly are deliberately pushed aside by the MSM
Very hard to get straight answers on South Korea, I recently came back from a family trip there. We stayed up watching the coup attempt while special forces stormed the National Assembly wondering if we needed to book an immediate flight home until lawmakers were able to overturn the decision.
It seems there are some sympathetic undercurrents to the North over Japan purely over historic grievances both countries refuse to acknowledge or resolve.
In laws also seem divided, I did my best to understand whether they felt there was any justification, I got a lot of non answers and divided opinion, ended up visiting the DMZ tunnels a week after the attempted coup, which in itself was very interesting.
There are facts - the attempted coup occurred, then there is the opinion on why the coup attempt occurred. This opinion involves human logic and mostly human emotion which is a very fickle thing. I find that cultural history / mythologizing by a society and more recent individual human emotion combines within people to create an opinion ( as an example how many people are scared by the stock market crash on 87) which for the most part is wrong (the past is in the past) . Stop trying to find the "truth" it doesn't exist - there are facts and opinions (and most "truth" is just opinion) ( and trying to find the "truth" will drive you nuts - KISS - keep it simple and straight forward).
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/538168/elon-musk-projects-his-hard-rig…
I don't think Musk and Trump are far right guys at heart, they're just made a calculation that the useful idiots there have votes (and street violence) they need to supply the chaos to create the fear they thrive on.
Musk is playing a 5-10 game in Europe to steer it right, as Trump did to get in the White House.
Expect a backlash towards "driving Teslas" in the coming years. Musk is a fascist. Do you really what to make a Nazi rich ? Strap in for Trump's reign.
Musk is president. He spent US$250 million on buying himself an orange guy who has no principles and who believes office is a business opportunity. Trump has already been told to adopt Musk H-1B policy. Now with Musk moving into Mar a largo, when Trumps lips move, it'll be repeating what Musk told him to say.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-tr…
Musk is driven by his ADHD to get his latest "project" resourced. Cue, US Govt. SpaceX subsidies/contracts.
Doesn't he believe his SpaceX/Mars project is to protect humanity? Doesn't he believe his StarLink space junk is to bring communications to all?
Fascism? Maybe. or misplaced Utilitarianism?
ASB app showing me:
6 months: 5.99%
12 months: 5.65%
18 months: 5.59%
24 months: 5.49%
I agree, hard to know which of those is best. I have ruled out 6 months (too high) and 18 months (not much different to 12 months). I think I'll go 12 months but I can see an argument for 24 months.
Bit of a conundrum. I generally agree with you. Six months could be good if we were confident that retail interest rates are going to be much lower in 6 months - but I don’t think we can be!
I will need to re-finance in late May. Hoping these rates will be down by circa 0.5% by then - I think there’s a good chance they will be
I absolutely believe the OCR will be lowered by 0.5% in February.
When it comes to deciding on a term to re-fix a mortgage, I believe that flexibility if very important because of the very high degree of economic and geo-political uncertainty (in my opinion). That would make the floating rate best, but its rate demands a large premium. I will re-fix for 6 months and accept to pay a slight premium over the 12 and 24 months, for the privilege of being able to reassess the situation in 6 months time.
That's a funny thing to have absolute belief in! Some people believe in god, others in the laws of physics. My call on the future OCR direction i'd call a prediction, a guess, a hunch. Certainly not something i would have absolute belief in given the variables and committee members involved.
I wouldn't want to guess at how the world will look in 3, 6, 12 or even 36 months.
The big questions are around
Trumps tariffs and the reactions of the world to them.
Chinas economy.
Trumps impact on the Ukraine war.
And locally... whether Luxon and Co wake up and start to spend on infrastructure and sort the exodus to Au (mind you the Au economy might solve that one)
Sure.
There’s every chance they will be above 6% *at some point* in the next 5 years, and every chance they will also be at 3.5% or less *at some point* in the next 5 years. Both are likely to happen in my opinion. I would guesstimate there’s greater than a 70% chance that there will be an economic crisis in the next 5 years that will see interest rates plummet. Could be a domestic event (major natural disaster, or a steadily eroding and sick economy with unemployment at 6% plus under National’s austerity) or an international event (financial crisis, another pandemic)
There’s more to lose than gain, in my opinion, in fixing for 5 years. Most people are already on interest rates at close to, or more than, 6%. Are retail rates likely to go to 7% or more? I don’t think so
Not worth going another 6 months. Partner did 6 months and rates dropped 1.5% during that time, that's not going to happen over the next 6 months, in fact I see rates rising again as a much higher probability. We are never going to those historic lows again anytime soon in my opinion.
Will be interesting to see.
One thing he is right about is that the US has not been leveraging it's dominant economical or military position. In fact it's been wasting and borrowing too much money, racking up debt and letting china catch up too fast.. and (if they don't act now) overtake them. Which should worry us all as there is a growing band of dictators in our world.
The US (and trumps) business culture is to push negotiations and finances to the limits (and even risk bankruptcy) in order to win. And now we have pyschopathic, very hard negotiating, hard working and high risk taking business people who thrive in a hard cilture and whowant to win... and who are now in full control of the usa.
My guess is we watch the dollar soar and the larger trading partners buckle to trumps demands. But we should expect some wars and bruises on the way... and nz but a small boat in a very storm ocean now.. and we haven't prepared very well at all.
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