Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news of a large number of key new releases to end the year.
It might be the final full week before the summer holidays (in New Zealand), but there will be a lot going on and a lot to follow. Here of course it is the week when corporates and the government release their 'bad news' stories in the hope people are distracted. Then the REINZ will release its November data. And there will be a full dairy auction on Wednesday morning. Thursday will bring our Q3 GDP, expected to confirm we have been in recession.
But there is not a lot on the card from Australia this week, other than a consumer sentiment survey from Westpac which we need to keep an eye on.
Globally, the big set piece will be the US Fed's monetary policy review on Thursday NZT. A -25 bps cut is expected there. And that comes in the middle of a large raft of important US data updates. China has a good chunky set too. Japan will chime in with its own, including their rate review where now, no change is anticipated. There are other central bank reviews as well, from Sweden (uncertain), Norway (no change), Indonesia (-25 bps), Taiwan (no change), Thailand (no change) and the Philippines (-25 bps). Russia is also expected to push its policy rate up by +200 bps to 23%. Canada and the EU will have their own key data releases.
In the meantime we start the week with global interest rates on the move up and the US rate inversions have now vanished. Except in China where there is a rush on for the safety of Government bonds which is driving down yields to record lows. And positive-sloping yield curves are returning.
As we noted, the US Fed is expected to cut rates by -25 bps at its December meeting next week on Thursday NZT, bringing the benchmark range to 4.25%-4.50%, and a full percentage point drop since September. Economists anticipate slower cuts ahead, with only three reductions projected for 2025. Those cuts may be delayed if inflation remains above the Fed's target.
As the Trump team prepares for the transition, its anti-regulation focus is coming into view. They are seeking candidates to eliminate or eviscerate the FDIC (sought by big banks), and rid themselves of car-crash reporting (as sought by Elon Musk). The billionaire sharks are going after consumer protections.
Canadian manufacturing sales were up strongly in October, their best growth spurt in nearly two years. That made them +1.4% higher than the same month a year ago. While that isn't quite besting inflation, the recent moves up will be encouraging them.
Across the Pacific, Chinese banks extended just ¥580 bln in new yuan loans in November, less than half the same month a year ago, and nearly half of what was expected. This is the lowest new lending for a November since 2012. The decline took place despite the aggressive monetary stimulus measures from the PBoC in late September in an attempt to halt the property market downturn. There have also been much higher levels of local government debt issued in that time too. Poor credit demand in China is saying a lot about Beijing's management of their economy and its prospects.
President Xi and his top team have been meeting in their big set-piece Central Economic Work Conference, and what is glaringly obvious from this so far, is that they don't know what to do, and financial markets are sensing that with their pullbacks.
But it sounds like they are preparing to cut both key policy rates and their reserve requirement ratio in 2025, according to a report here.
EU industrial production is still in its decline phase, now stretching to 18 consecutive months. It will be little comfort to them that the October decline was smaller than the prior month.
In Australia, a report suggest that auction clearance rate in Sydney have fallen sharply over the weekend to be just on 50%, a long way lower than the about-80% level of just a few weeks ago.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.40%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday. But that is quite a move for the week, up +26 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is more positive, now by +16 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion +1 bps positive. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion has also disappeared to now be positive at +9 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.31% and down -8 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.78% and unchanged from Saturday. A week ago it was 1.96% so a huge -18 bps fall since then. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.52% and unchanged. But it is up +6 bps for the week.
The price of gold will start today at US$2647/oz and down -US$11 from Saturday.
Oil prices are firmish but still just over US$71/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$74.50.
The Kiwi dollar starts today still just under 57.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday, but down -70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 to be unchanged from Saturday, and down -40 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,011 and up +1.5% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$101,044. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.
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36 Comments
Russia raising its policy rate to 23%. Appreciate, like the All Blacks on tour in the old days, what happens in Russia stays in Russia but that sort of central bank rate in what is still one of the big global economies can only be stifling both development and sustenance of industry, commerce and the population in general. Guess though the military is growing but once that is fired or destroyed, then it is spent, in productive terms anyway.
Super weird, 2 years ago people were telling me Putin is holding all the cards. 4D chess even.
Couldn't sustain Assad in Syria
African proxies are losing support
Mates in Iran aren't looking too flash
Much of their Cold War military stockpile are hulks in Ukraine
My concern now is if things get worse faster if he'll be tempted to hit the big red button.
Pa1nter. Those people weren't reading the signs nor aware of Russian history. Two years ago it was becoming obvious that Putin had made a disastrously bad decision to embark on an invasion of Ukraine, that his military was incompetent and being fought to a standstill by a numerically and materielly weaker opponent. Shoigu and Gerasomov are political appointments, poorly qualified for their roles and having limited credibility with the military leaders who actually have control of Russias degrading nuclear arsenal. High level russian leadership moved decisively to oust Khrushchev after his finger strayed terrifyingly close to the nuclear button in 1962, replacing him with a succession of glove puppet non entities.
Yup. As a strongman Putin would never allow a truly competent military officer to rise to the top if his military. If one did so in a country like Russia, that officer would become a threat to whatever leadership was in place. The natural consequences of corruption whatever its form.
I was more than a little amused at those here who wilfully swallowed the rubbish Putin spouted and argued his case for him. Gullibility driven by their own blinkers and bias's.
I was more than a little amused at those here who wilfully swallowed the rubbish Putin spouted and argued his case for him. Gullibility driven by their own blinkers and bias's.
Don't be one of the sheeple swallowing mass media lies.
Be an "independent thinker", and subscribe to this more outlandish craziness I've been sucked into.
We don't actually know what he'll do. There's a possibility he'll propose an unpalatable settlement to one or either side.
- Ukraine doesn't accept, and US funding will slow
- Russia doesn't accept, and the US will increase its aid.
Trump also has a boner for Iran, and it's in his interest for their ally Russia to be less capable of supporting them. Seems fairly clear that Russia is struggling to support their own military actions, let alone continue to prop their mates up.
The funding is not going to slow, its going to stop dead. Trump has stated that war is going to be over in 24 hours and there is only one way of doing that. The moment the munitions stop flowing, Ukraine is toast. The reasons that countries all round the world have stopped rushing to help prop up the shit kickers is because they have their own severe economic troubles at home. America is going to start looking after itself, not propping up some proxy war to the tune of billions of dollars on a totally different continent.
Yes there's been a bit of that here too.
I learnt when doing my IT degree that we can have blinkers/bias without being aware of them. Being challenged as to 'Why' can be both painful and enlightening and you learn pretty quickly to keep asking why? Disregarding evidence that doesn't fit your paradigm is a lazy way to think. But then evidence that does fit might not be correct too. Keep asking why.
I've said it many times before here but i love it when people disagree with me and can tell me why. People who just resort to name calling - spoilt children.
Well in replacing Khrushchev they first tried a bob each way with Brezhnev & Kosygin but the former soon muscled out the latter but then undid himself over Afghanistan. As Churchill put it they are a puzzling lot to our Western eyes. In a USA city had a conversation with a Russian taxi driver around about 2003. He had been there for about ten years and doing OK. But he was heading back he said because there was a strong leader now. And added I can get away with things here that I would never get away with at home, but I’m still going back. Seems to be centuries of royal Tsars, and now red Tsars have caused a population that expects to be subjugated and deprived. As Frank Sinatra sang, “That’s life.”
FG.Kosygin was gone by 1980 and Breshnev dead by 1982. The critically ill Andropov who followed had little say over the conduct of the war, with the military establishment running the Afghanistan debacle during his time and Gorbachev oversaw the soviet retreat in 1988/89. Russian widows and mothers of slain soldiers protesting war deaths are often proposed as causing the withdrawal. While the threat of mass uprising influenced the cut and run decision, it stretches credibility to attribute a sudden exhibition of humanity to the men in the Stavka. US arming of the Mujaheddin, notably with ground to air missiles such as the highly portable stinger, along with Gorbachev's developing understanding that the RU military industrial complex was irreparably degraded were far more influential, leaving him with no choice but to bail.
Interesting, Russian withdrawal from Syria, wishful thinking?? see
https://maritime-executive.com/article/russians-leave-tartus-naval-base….
I also searched RT news for mention of Assad: no mention!, suspect he'll disappear along with his reputed billions in Russian property. Sup with the devil... need a longer spoon...
Bit hard for RT to spin sheltering this homicidal tyrant.
Apparently we are going to meet emissions targets 6 years early under the coalition - basically by doing nothing. Magic. https://www.stuff.co.nz/climate-change/360517587/new-climate-plan-nz-co…
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