After a one year hiatus our annual Interesties Awards are back for their thirteenth edition.
Whatever this year has been, it hasn't been dull. During 2024 we have continued living in interesting times. Our navy even managed to lose a ship for the first time since World War II...
And if nothing else, New Zealand's politicians have entertained us. We've even been able to grab some popcorn and watch our big banks bosses endure two banking competition probes. Meanwhile, times are looking up for borrowers and down for savers with the Reserve Bank cutting the Official Cash Rate.
The headline act in a series of overseas elections featured the return of Donald Trump. We've seen share markets and cryptocurrencies surge, and the horrors of war playing out all too often.
So as 2024 moves towards its inevitable conclusion, here are some gongs for those who featured in our news this year.
Thanks to everyone who has made informative, thoughtful, entertaining and humorous contributions to interest.co.nz this year adding to the discussion and debate. We appreciate it. To all our contributors, readers, listeners, viewers and commentors, have a Merry Christmas and a happy and healthy 2025.
So without further ado, here are the 2024 Interesties Awards.
The What I'd Say to You Management Speak 101 Award: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. I'd just say to you, the PM's customers, watch the video below from Tim Prebble.
The Itching for Power Award: ACT leader, and Deputy PM to be, David Seymour.
For the letterhead below meshed together with Ross Payne's cartoon.
The full letter is here. It was received with an emailed press release on July 16, 2024, more than 10 months before Seymour was due to become Deputy PM. (Yellow highlighting below by Interest.co.nz).
The In Search of a Backbone Award: Leader Chris Hipkins and the Labour Party.
The Light Fingers Award: Ex-Green Party MP Golriz Ghahraman.
The Na Na Na Na, Na Na Na Na, Hey Hey, Goodbye Award: Ex-Green Party MP Darleen Tana.
The Fingers Crossed and Hope it Doesn't Happen Again Award: Energy Minister Simeon Brown after winter's high electricity prices.
The Best Parliamentary Theatre Award: Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke for her now world famous haka.
The Gymnast Flexibility Award: Ex-PM John Key for managing to endorse both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Political Shemozzle of the Year Award: A few contenders, but with recency bias I'll give it to Finance Minister Nicola Willis and her Cook Strait ferry announcement.
The Politician Most Likely to Find a Lump of Coal in their Christmas Stocking Award: Shane "fossil fuel" Jones.
The Capital Gains Tax Advocacy Award: ANZ NZ CEO Antonia Watson.
The Waking from Hibernation Award: The Commerce Commission.
The Well Disguised Maverick Award: Kiwibank.
The Best Impersonation of a Piñata Award: The big four banks.
The U-Turn Denier Award: Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr after August's Official Cash Rate cut.
The Bitcoin Spruiker Award: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for comparing the crypto-asset with gold.
The Pinch Yourself it Really Happened Award: Shared by; 1) the Bank of Japan for raising interest rates for the first time in 17 years, and; 2) the Japanese share market for reaching record highs, topping levels seen more than 34 years earlier in December 1989 right before Japan's asset-price bubble popped.
The Best Impersonation of a Sith Award: Elon Musk (below), with apologies to non-Star Wars fans.
The Economist OCR Hawk Award: Westpac NZ's Kelly Eckhold, for OCR calls and comments.
The Economist OCR Dove Award: Kiwibank's Jarrod Kerr for OCR calls and comments.
The Economist OCR Flip-Flop Award: ANZ NZ's Sharon Zollner for changing OCR forecasts from a steady sequence of cuts, to two increases and then back to cuts again.
The Doomsday Award: Treasury’s chief economic advisor Dominick Stephens for a speech on New Zealand's fiscal settings in September.
The Challenging Economic Status Quo Thinking Award: Interest.co.nz commenter JFoe. Demonstrated in the comment thread on the Stephens speech article, and below from this article.
by Jfoe | 21st Jul 24, 10:44am
Monetary policy works as expected? Do you mean if you force business and households to increase their interest payments from $20bn to $42bn per year you collapse consumer demand and trigger a major recession with spiralling unemployment? If so, I agree that monetary policy works exactly as expected. Great stuff.
But... countries across the world have all followed the same inflation track (up and down) and many barely shifted their interest rates at all (and some had no choice over rates because they were set by the ECB). Basically the price of energy then food went up, that pushed other prices up, and then when energy & food price increases slowed or reversed, price rises of other stuff moderated. Between 2022 and 2024 the world shifted to a new price level.
Now, the only argument worth having is how much RBNZ caused or slowed inflation compared to the base case 'do nothing'. There is zero doubt that RBNZ juiced the housing market with their rate cuts. Check. And, as David articulates above, there is zero doubt that the rate hikes have crashed consumer demand and pushed up unemployment. But, if RBNZ had done nothing, what would measured CPI have done? My view is that it would have still spiked above 7% and then come down over two years to 3%. I genuinely don't think they have made much difference at all.
The PDK Growth is Dead Award: New Zealand GDP.
Interest.co.nz Comment of the Year Award: Holding off other contenders, including a couple of late challenges on this week's Treasury Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update story is ... drum roll ... Palmtree08 for the comment below, made on this article.
by Palmtree08 | 27th Mar 24, 3:11pm
News Alert, politicians lie. Every three years they promise you can have a shiny new car, while dissing the one you currently drive as a worthless clunker.
After driving the car off the lot, the wheels fall off. On complaining? We never promised wheel nuts, but we may find some by 2028. Here, have a bill for the rego.
The PR Person Whose Name Most Sounds Like a 1970s Punk Rocker: The Greens' Johnny Blades.
The Banking Intern Most Likely to Switch Careers to Become a Secret Agent Award: ASB "Future Me Graduate" Johnny English.
The Best Name in the NZ Financial Services Sector Award: Worldline NZ’s Chief Sales Officer, Bruce Proffit. Note, this is an updated version of the Best Name in NZ Banking and Finance Award, whose winners and contenders included SBS Chief Financial Officer Tim Loan, PwC partner Chris Money, PwC Director Henry Risk, and Nikko Asset Management Fixed Income Analyst Tim O'Loan.
The Dr Jekyll Keeping Mr Hyde Hidden Award: The housing market.
The Bitumen Cup Formula 1 Award for Services to Roads and Speed: Minister of Transport Simeon Brown (below).
The Playing Politicians Like a Piano Award: Federated Farmers for getting their agenda to the forefront of the banking competition select committee inquiry.
The Services to Political Donors Award: The Fast Track Approvals Bill (soon to be Act).
The Political Wheel Spin of the Year Award: So many contenders... One that sticks in the mind, and thus winner of this gong, is Housing Minister Chris Bishop's claim to be making; "pro-tenant changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to help increase the supply of rental properties," including; "reintroducing 90-day ‘no cause’ terminations for periodic tenancies, meaning landlords can end a periodic tenancy without requiring a specific reason."
The Wot About the Workers Award: Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden.
The Tangled in Red Tape Award: Regulation Minister David Seymour after receiving push back twice, (one & two), from his own creation, the Ministry of Regulation.
The Biggest Contribution to Samoa's Diving Attractions (but hopefully not reef damage and ocean pollution) Award: The Royal New Zealand Navy.
The Pot Calling the Kettle Black Award: Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport accusing each other of monopolistic, market power abuse.
The Lack of Self Awareness Award: Du Val's Kenyon and Charlotte Clarke.
The Good Luck Untangling that Mess Award: Du Val's statutory managers at PwC.
The Best Impersonation of an Old Man Shouting at a Cloud Award: Joe Biden.
The Scream/Freddy Krueger Back to Haunt Us Award: Donald Trump.
The Biggest Contributor to Political Cartoons: Donald Trump, as demonstrated x3 below.
— mike luckovich (@mluckovichajc) October 4, 2024
Michael de Adder @deAdder #TrumpAdvisors pic.twitter.com/qnmJw4pubE
— Editorial & Political Cartoons (@EandPCartoons) October 27, 2024
Missing the fascism for the clown show
— Matt Wuerker (@wuerker) October 22, 2024
New toon https://t.co/DYjVqGWvoA pic.twitter.com/z0ytQPyRvB
Charts of the Year:
1) US consumer sentiment from this New York Times story. Go figure.
2) Trade policy uncertainty from the Bank for International Settlements.
3) Blinking bitcoin.
We welcome readers' comments, and own awards, in the comment thread below.
52 Comments
Eminence grise award: Elon Musk
https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-speaker-mike-johnson-funding-bill-20…
As much as looking forward to judging NACT on their results?
Their current promotion must deserve an award!
Over the last year our priority has been on...
National's Economic Plan is Delivering Results
1. Inflation is at its lowest in 3.5 years.
2. Interest rates are down.
3. We delivered tax relief to low and middle income earners.
4. More than 40,000 households have claimed up to $150 a fortnight for childcare costs through FamilyBoost.
Like @mark_a I look forward to objectively assessed results, and in four years time, much better presidential candidates.
For plot 2 above, wouldn’t a survey of trade focussed politicians or other trade professionals be a better indication than newspaper articles as a measure of trade uncertainty?
We don’t seem to have learnt much from the last 8 years or so. Media in general create a narrative focussed around a progressive agenda. They, along with economists, “academics”, celebrities and others are not above creating media storms to stimulate opposition.
Just saying objectivity is key, rather than running with the cool pack.
Edmonds must have been neck and neck with Chris Bishop.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/barbara-edmonds-deletes-facebook…
Surely we should wait until next year to see what he actually acheives? I think the title of the award will offer greater opportunities for comedy gold if we wait a bit longer. My bet is on an award titled something like the: 'I would have got away with it if wasn't for those pesky realities' award.
It's not about left or right. I disagree with his worldview, yes, but what he is doing is terrible macroeconomics. The country is getting into deeper debt denominated in US dollars (issuing its own US dollar bonds even) and within the year that is going to go pop. Where are they going to get enough US dollars to pay the interest / settle the debt? China?
Argentina recorded a current account surplus of USD 1.401 billion in Q3 2024, a sharp reversal from the USD 6.05 billion deficit in the same period last year. The goods account shifted dramatically to a USD 5.37 billion surplus, up from a USD 1.37 billion deficit in Q3 2023. Meanwhile, the services gap slightly narrowed to USD 1.61 billion from USD 1.68 billion. Additionally, the primary account deficit narrowed to USD 2.73 billion from USD 3.46 billion, while the secondary account surplus fell to USD 363 million from USD 467 million, highlighting overall improvement despite some pressures.
Sorry I missed this response. Now tell me whether a more sustained current account surplus was achieved just a few years ago? It is easy to hit a sudden surplus when you crash the economy and all imports stop because nobody can afford them. The key question here is whether you think any of this thrashing around is going to achieve anything. Where do you think Argentine will be in a year? Maybe the US / IMF will forgive them their dollarised debts and they will turn a corner? Or maybe not.
I think this is a classic case of dogma, sadly jfoe. The world isn't as simple of models or ideologies. Those breakdown in the nuances.
Under previous regimes a lot of companies kept their foreign currency off the books in offshore companies. With the proper revaluation of the currency (there was always a difference between the hard to get official rate and the black-market rate) the central bank has allowed funds to start flowing freely for new trade (old debt needs to be paid off over 2-3 years to stop an outflow of cash that doesn't facilitate new trade).
Anyone dealing with actual trade with Argentina will tell you this is the most positive they have felt in the last 10 years and this is going to flow through into their economy over time.
I'd be far, far more concerned now about the likes of Paraguay and Chile. Argentina will start to grow again, but those two are going to have very real setbacks at both the micro and macroeconomic level.
It's not about left or right
Argentina is a fairly good extreme case study of how badly awry an economy can go with far too much state control. A combination of deficit spending, over regulation and bloated government. It has choked their ability to be commercially competitive.
You seem to be a strong proponent of deficit spending, but that usually goes hand in hand with governments wanting to tightly control that spend, and them often being fairly inept at making commercially astute decisions.
I am not a 'proponent of deficit spending', I just think govt deficit should be a balancing item managed in accordance with an actual economic strategy. Of course, running big negative current account balances and govt deficits is an unsustainable strategy.
Now, what has got Argentina into trouble (amongst other things) is building up debt in a currency (USD) they have no ability to print.
I am not a 'proponent of deficit spending', I just think govt deficit should be a balancing item managed in accordance with an actual economic strategy
Its the second half of this sentence that's the rub. Actually deploying the deficit in a way that provides a return to cover the expenditure is way easier said than done.
So we get a lot of vague sound bites of how to spend the money, that lack a path to a net positive return.
- invest in "productivity"
- government deficit spending to smooth over an economic downturn
- Green energy transition
They're all nice ideas, lacking in detail of how they'll actually pay for themselves.
Unfortunately the state usually lacks entrepreneurial prowess to pull it off. You could do something like helicopter money to fund 100 new ventures, chances are 80 or more of them will fail within 5 years. The survivors are unlikely to provide a return on investment that'd pay for the losers.
Don't worry - the leftists will get back in again to try and rescue what's left of their country after the corporate hegemons have made their extractions.
Maybe you should check out the $US dollar denominated debt and inflation Milei triggered to achieve this "surplus". He has basically reduced liabilities by reducing the price of assets (for sell off)
It's the basic neo-liberal corporate raiders trick the IMF and US has been playing on Latin America since forever. They're still pissed about YPF and have been applying the thumb screws ever since. They want in on the Vaca Meurta Shale play.
As JFoe mentioned - lets see how the grift plays out.
Argentinians will own nothing and be happy.
Thanks socialists - you were doing so well until that nasty Milei (and climate changeTM) came along and destroyed our socialist dream in 2024.
Child poverty soared to 63% in Argentina in 2023, says UCA report
Study by UCA’s Social Debt Observatory covering period 2010-2023 also reveals that 16.2% of children and teenagers currently live below the destitution line. Child poverty rate now at highest level since 2010.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/child-poverty-climbs-to-63-perc…
profile,
Thanks socialists - you were doing so well until that nasty Milei (and climate changeTM) came along and destroyed our socialist dream in 2024.
It's a wild guess, but I think I detect some irony in that sentence. When was the last successful Argentinian government of the right or left? Climate change is a bitch. It doesn't care what colour a government is, it just does its thing. It is affecting its wine industry in a number of ways; earlier and hotter vintages, reduced water availability, more frequent weather events and increased stress on vineyards.
Don't forget the award for searching for evidence to support a decision that has already been made (see: heated tobacco products).
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/529782/casey-costello-releases-ind…
Politicians from major political parties talk a lot of crap about banks looking for political points but in reality they aren't going to rock the boat. Many of them end up working for banks after retiring from politics.
The most profound attempt to improve banking in New Zealand in the last generation was thanks to the late Jim Anderton and even then he had to twist Labours arm to make them even do it.
A big thanks to Gareth, David, and the rest of the Interest.co team for making this site my go-to for daily reading, learning, and the odd chuckle. And to all the great contributors! Cheers, merry Xmas, and a safe and prosperous (or at least financially stable) New Year!
How about a couple of couple of extra categories:
The Un-introspected Noisy Flailing About for Relevance Award. Nominees: pretty every journalist that's been laid off from legacy media outlets over the last years. Standout performance: Patrick Gower.
The "Who? Us? No!" Strenuous Denial Award. Nominees: both major political parties and the RBNZ over our slide in to recession when the rest of our developed trading partners have largely managed to avoid it.
The Bullshite award. Nominees: too many to list, in both public and private life, as meaningless nonsense seems to have become a marker of our public discourse - and no-one is getting called on it.
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