Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the expected glow following the Chinese stimulus signals is surprising in its absence. Markets have turned quite sceptical and the Chinese bond yields have sunk sharply.
But first up today, we can report that the overnight GDT dairy Pulse auction brought slightly lower prices for SMP and WMP, but that the fall in the NZD maintained the results in NZD. SMP fell -1.5% from the prior week's full auction (in USD), and WMP fell -1.6% on the same basis. But in that same week the NZD fell -1.3%, so call it quits in NZD. Although they will have noticed this overnight event, the analysts are unlikely to alter their farmgate payout forecasts based on this recent activity, although the ones who still have forecasts lower than the Fonterra mid-point will be feeling a little safer.
Also overnight, the Redbook index of US retail activity there rose only +4.2% from the same week a year ago, a much lesser rise than the +7.2% gain the previous week. In fact it was the least gain since March. A bit of a levelling off, it seems.
But jumping a lot is the latest survey of small business sentiment. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped in November to the highest reading since June 2021,and well above what was expected. It is also the first time in 34 months that the reading is above the 50-year average of 98. The election result is said to be the reason for this rise.
The latest USDA WASDE report points out new restrictions of cattle imports to the US from Mexico because of an outbreak of screwworm (NWS) and the ban may be long-lasting. US imports of beef from other sources (including Oceania) are likely to rise. They also note that US milk production will likely turn up on higher milk prices.
There was another very well supported US Treasury 3 year bond auction earlier today, and that resulted in a median yield of 4.07%, very similar to the 4.09% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. No risk-rise signaled here.
In Japan, machine tool orders rose +3.0% in November from the same month a year earlier, slowing from +9.3% growth in October. Local orders were up +5.0%. The larger export order set was up only +2.2% as orders from China dragged.
China's export growth underwhelmed in November. It rose +12.7% in October and an +8.5% rise was expected in November (some thought +10%) due to front-loaded US demand ahead of 2025 tariffs. But in fact the gain was 'only' +6.7% from a year ago. Imports actually fell, a signal about their internal economic activity. Chinese imports from New Zealand are down -8.6% so far in 2024.
Interestingly, China's stimulus announcements have barely registered in international markets yet. Markets do expect them to cut rates and raise spending, but the feeling seems to be that this will just help them stay little-changed. So far it has been a very underwhelming event.
In Australia, the November NAB business confidence index fell to -3 from a near two-year peak of +5 in the prior month, falling below its long-term average. We haven't seen such a big one-month negative shift since the pandemic. And relief from their central bank doesn't seem about to happen.
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target at 4.35%. "Taking account of recent data, the Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipated. Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and while the level of aggregate demand still appears to be above the economy’s supply capacity, that gap continues to close." Analysts say this signals they remain confident they will get inflation back under control with the current policy rate and settings. Taking a while, however.
And we should perhaps note that coffee prices have surged to their highest level since 1972, driven by low production affected by drought in some parts, excessive rainfall in others. It is similar with chocolate (cocoa) prices, heading back to their unusual March peaks.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.24%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, now by +8 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is a little less, now by -12 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also less, now at -17 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.22% and down -5 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 1.88% and down a very sharp -8 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.40% and down -3 bps.
Wall Street is down -0.1% on the S&P500 in Tuesday trade. Overnight European markets were mostly -1% lower, except Frankfurt which was unchanged. Yesterday Tokyo closed up +0.5%. Hong Kong fell -0.5% but Shanghai rose +0.6%. Singapore also ended up +0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session down -0.4%. And the NZX50 ended down -0.6%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2693/oz and up +US$24 from yesterday.
Oil prices are up +50 USc to just over US$69/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$72.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 58 USc and down -80 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps to 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.9 to be down -50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,850 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.9%.
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89 Comments
Perhaps next year, Interest.co could do a piece - or series - on exponential growth?
There was a linear comment yesterday (assuming that a growth-requiring financial system could last for generations and generations).
Seems to me that lauding growth comes with an obligation to examine the ramifications thereof.
Funny thing about natural resources; they're a lot like a bank account without an overdraft facility. You don't know they're running out until the flow stops.
Thing is, the above is not entirely true. With natural resources there are warning signs, such as it gets more expensive to pull out more resources, and they're harder to find. A bit like what's happening now?
As a long time reader but fairly new contributor to this site, I have to say I've grown a bit tired of PDK's repetitive comments. I'm pretty sure I could write a "ChatPDK" script in about 20 lines of code which is indistinguishable from the real deal. The next time I see someone try to shoehorn the term "entropy" into a conversation, I swear to god...
That said, he's 100% correct.
It's not about going back to the stone age and living like Neanderthals. It's about acknowledging the fact that our current way of life is unsustainable - which means by definition it will come to an end at some point - and preparing for that eventuality, so that it doesn't end up being a major issue when it happens. Even better, we could be proactive and start gradually moving towards a more sustainable way of life, so that the inevitable transition happens on our own terms.
Just sticking our heads in the sand and "living for the moment" is ignorant, selfish, and potentially catastrophic. Nobody knows how long we can carry on like this for, but we do know it won't be forever.
You can live for the moment without consuming resources. Go outside, watch some birds or trees.
We have so many existential threats on our doorsteps, it's hard to know which one to put the most attention into. All of them could happen, and none of them could happen. One might occur tomorrow, or it might occur in a hundred years. We can have some limited influence, but it's ultimately out of our control.
I can't really judge anyone for how they live their life. My personal view is we all are better off in servitude to life, our energies best directed in bringing out the best from what's around us (whether flora or fauna), than what we can take from it.
Not entirely true Pa1nter, both birds and trees are consuming resources. Birds consume oxygen and the seed and other foods they need for energy, while trees consume CO2 and nutrients. Get too many of either in an environment and the environment can no longer support them. Proof of that is available over the planet. The problem is human beings have come to believe that the laws of physics and nature don't apply to them. Deflecting and delaying only results in the response being somewhat stronger.
"I've grown a bit tired of PDK's repetitive comments."
Weird? I get tired of all the repetitive comments extolling the virtues of growing like yeast. These comments may be posted by many individuals rather than just one, but they all say the same physics blind, echo chamber, bubbleland nonsense.
I guess PDK understands the power of repetition? That being said, he's still a voice in the wilderness.
Bit of a rude character swipe Pa1nter first thing in the morning (7.37am).
This site is interest dot co which specializes in financial interest after all, so understanding mathematical differences between linear and exponential growth and their application to the 'world' around them is probably of some real importance.
Perhaps readers may learn or absorb something by such an article?
Say you're 30. You have what, 50 years of life in front of you, in which you should be aiming to build yourself a foundation for some sort of financial independence.
How useful is hearing that someone else (who's primary working life is behind them) is convinced the sky is going to fall tomorrow?
We don't know when and how a bus might come round the corner and wipe us out. We can be mindful that *might" happen any day, but for the most part it's better to assume you'll still get up tomorrow. And the next day. And many after that.
There's likely going to be hundreds or thousands more generations, possibly even millions. Accurately guessing what form that'll take though, is a neat trick.
If I had a big concern about the future, it's less limits to growth and the planets ecology, but more human interpersonal relationships. Although there's some crossover.
You ever wondered what started and ended the The Younger Dryas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
If someone wants to do that, more power to them.
My personal advice would be to stay involved in active commerce, but with a view to lower ones rate of consumption, and work towards building resilience from shocks. Possibly not as good financial returns as going pedal to the metal, but a foot in each camp.
It would be interesting to assess how the assumptions of CGT & Wealth tax proponents are to be maintained for future generations.
And how they intend to provide tax refunds in the event of either temporary negative periods (eg the Covid years) or semi permanent declines (eg. Degrowth).
Re the quantum computing announcement yesterday, were there any large bitcoin transfers yesterday? Alphabet could have delayed the announcement by a day, and spent some of that day farming enough crypto to finance their entire research project. Proof of work isn't going be very viable for long with quantum chips. And if the power consumption of a quantum chip is less than the consumption of every supercomputer out there, that could mean some very interesting (scary?) AI advances.
Sorry co founder and developers, a CEO would actually be accountable. I must admit there must be crickets - I was under the impression these currencies were safe and limited, not controlled by developers.
Why trust the government with decades of experience to control your currency when you can just hope that computers don’t get faster and that developers have your back.
No problem, Mr "come up with various names for someone you disagree with rather than produce a superior argument". I'm definitely not the smartest in the room, but if I feel a position is flawed, I will test them. It's how you form more robust positions.
We now have a popularly traded asset, with heavy value exposure to larger markets and forces.
It won't be used widely as a replacement for fiat in common transactions. Little to none of it's value is derived from it's utility as currency. So the bigger question is what are the limits to market demand for it as an asset. And what are the potential risks to that demand.
The funny thing is you're descibing our current financial system. We are all minnows with no leverage and no control.
Even owning a mere 0.1 Bitcoin, you have more than all but 94 publicly traded and private companies, ETFs and countries.
If you have the keys to that bitcoin, that can never be taken from you. You have total control and true ownership of a bearer instrument.
The funny thing is you're descibing our current financial system. We are all minnows with no leverage and no control.
Indeed. I am not arguing to the contrary of that.
It's the belief you can switch and somehow elevate your standing, or not still be a pawn that I'm highlighting.
"New Zealand doesn't have a problem with productivity - it just lacks investment. The economic "experts" have got it wrong for 50 years."
Great article, although I'd suggest he could revise his last paragraph; "NZ needs to fund more investment using overseas and domestic savings. We must tear down barriers stopping foreign savers investing their money here (& curtailing returns even if they do). We need drastic cuts in red-tape that hamper all investors, domestic and foreign."
Rather the Government could do the investing now through deficit funding. Take a modern view of the NZ$ and fund high quality infrastructure to base economic activity on. Create an environment to reallocate resources to local manufacturing and build national resilience and independence, and trade capability. this would require an overhaul of our tax base, and bank infrastructure too.
The focus should be forward looking with less focus on "growth" as viewed by economists, but building sustainable resilience and reducing vulnerability to external factors.
NZ needs to reform its tax system. ONE role of tax is to redistribute wealth (to avoid the endgame that the game monopoly demonstrates).
Our tax system does this so poorly that we have created the monster called the Ministry of Social Development.
Until we reform the role of the IR & MSD monstrosities, productivity gains are a pipe dream.
It's not a big jump to align "investment" with ownership.
Marx said. "the ultimate benefit flows to the owner" I agree. Ownership works. You are better to focus on ownership than working your butt off trying to make a dollar.
It's not about working hard. It's about capturing the benefit. Ownership does that.
New Zealand does not value ownership. Businesses we develop get sold off. That's our pattern. We miss building on most of the benefit.
Solution: We forgo some consumption and build capital and ownership. Does not take many decades before that works for us.
"The National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government is set to announce today it will spend $900 million on new ferries to replace the two bigger ones already being built in South Korea for $551 million, but that it cancelled a year ago in an unnecessary panic about spending."
From Bernard Hickey this morning.
They're an ideology - and a pretty narrow one at that.
Their demon is rail (it has to be bad, the Greens like it) so whatever, we have seen the last of rail linking our islands.
The joke is that the collapse will take us below the level of needing/maintaining rail - a point few if any in the Green camp (pun intended) comprehend.
"...we have seen the last of rail linking our islands. "
Apparently not, blinkered groupthink virtue signalling constrains the options again
"Whatever the preferred solution, rail freight will continue to be able to be transported between the North and South Islands.”
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/536339/watch-live-government-won-t…
The difference is whether it's rollon/rolloff rail enabled ferries, or unload onto a trailer, drive onto ferry, drive off ferry, load onto a rail wagon, rinse and repeat for each container, $200 each thank you very much, bye bye cost competitiveness.
National will then claim it's not ideology that killed rail, but simple economic realism.
Buying two Corolla for almost twice the price of two Ferrari. Not even ideology, simply stupidity, we can trash the previous government plans because we're in power now.
No forward thinking what so ever.
No doubt they'll stick to the line that the Corolla cost $900m vs $3b for the Ferrari and the stupid won't question this.
You'd sort of expect politicians, especially ones with corporate history to be very wary of knee jerk reactions? If Bernard's expectations are correct then NACT are about to be very embarrassed, especially as they have imposed massive and damaging cost saving measures on every government department.
I've travelled to most of the much maligned "3rd world" over the last 30 years. The only time I had anything approaching this level of disruption was 9/11 (stuck in South America, waitlisted on last plane out of Sao Paulo).
Live: Queues at Auckland International Airport as network outage hits | RNZ News
Linear comment - try thinking about entropy.
Tainter gave us Collapse of Complex Societies, back in 1988. We didn't listen, kept complexifying. AI is the latest joke; adding to growth (resource and energy consumption) at yet another level of complexity.
And productivity is really energy efficiencies (upthread) - how many times does that need to be stated?
Death lies all around us every day, yet most human attention and behaviour assumes tomorrow is guaranteed to us.
Most of us walk around in a daze, trying not to bump into things
People only really see things when they really want to. And even then, their response won't be uniform.
I won't disagree with anyone who thinks much of how we live, and components of our culture are flawed and deeply foolish.
And yes, it is an addiction.
If anyone's had to be around a serious one, they'll know it's pretty hard, to impossible, to convince one to change.
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