Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the world's services sector seems to be holding its own.
Ahead of this weekend's November non-farm payrolls report, the private ADP Employment report out today reveals American private businesses added +146,000 workers to their payrolls in the month, slightly below forecasts of 150,000. This is a reversion to the mean for 2024. Currently analysts are expecting the non-farm payrolls to rise +200,000 when they are reported in Saturday (NZT).
New factory orders inched up in October to be +3.4% higher than year ago levels.
US mortgage applications rose again and for the fourth consecutive week. This was driven by new purchase activity, helped by a fall in benchmark mortgage interest rates (to 6.69%), but undercut by a fall in refi activity.
The giant US service sector expanded at a good solid rate in November, but not as fast as in October, according to the widely-watched ISM survey. The November expansion was also a reversion to the 2024 mean. But the internationally-benchmarked S&PGlobal/Markit version reported a rising expansion in the sector, and to its fastest clip since March 2022. They say it was based on a rise and rise in new orders.
The bullish of those two reports is likely to be the more realistic because American vehicle sales rose to an annualised rate of 16.5 mln in November, its strongest pace since May 2021.
There were services sector reports out for a number of economies overnight and they were mixed.
In Canada, their small expansion grew again in the month. In Japan, that sector shifted from contraction to expansion. The Caixin version for China stayed at a modest expansion. But it will be disappointing that all their stimulus efforts so far haven't really moved the needle, and deflationary pressure grow. In India, their expansion stayed strong, but is being marred by fast-rising inflation. It is inflation fuelled by food and wages and is now running at a twelve year high.
In South Korea, the president's martial law move has backfired spectacularly. The stage is now set for an historic vote to impeach him. Democratic forces have prevailed over authoritarian ambition.
As we publish, it seems that the French government will fall to a no-confidence vote supported by both far-right and far-left political opposition parties. (But a little history might be helpful for some French parliamentarians. Only one motion of no confidence has ever been passed in France since 1958. It was in 1962 and it was aimed at PM Georges Pompidou, and through him President Charles de Gaulle. A month and a half later, the two men found themselves more secure than ever.)
In Australia, their services PMI slipped from a very minor expansion to no expansion in November. But the same survey recorded business confidence rising to its highest level since May 2022, which in the circumstances seems odd. However other Australian confidence surveys report a similar disconnect.
The Aussies also released their Q3-2024 GDP result yesterday and it came in with a somewhat surprising miss. Some analysts had expected a surprise, but to the high side given recent data (based largely on the spending surge by their Federal government). But few saw this downside miss coming. The Australian economy grew by +0.3% in Q3-2024, following a +0.2% increase in the prior three quarters. This marked the 12th straight period of quarterly growth but fell short of market expectations of +0.4%. And year-on-year the rise was +0.8% instead of the expected +1.0%. These are still minor moves and given the stimulus in effect, it does lead to a view the Aussie economy is stagnating. But at least it isn't contracting.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.19%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, now by +7 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is less inverted by -15 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also less, now at -33 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.28% and down -6 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 1.97% and a startling -6 bps lower. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.42%, and up +3 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has opened its Wednesday session with the S&P500 up +0.4. European markets were quite mixed with London down -0.3%, Frankfurt up +1.0% and Paris up +0.6%. Toked its Wednesday session up a minor +0.1%. Hong Kong was virtually unchanged and Shanghai was down -0.4%. Singapore was up +0.4%. The ASX200 ended down -0.4% and the NZX50 dived -1.5% yesterday in particularly weak trading.
The price of gold will start today at US$2652/oz and up +US$2 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are -50 USc softer at US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is little-changed at just under US$73.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.7 USc and down -15 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we up +30 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -20 bps to 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.3, and unchanged from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,114 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.1%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
61 Comments
How much of 'services' is maintenance increasing to parry entropy?
https://www.reliableplant.com/Read/13584/entropy-maintenance-reliability
https://medium.com/@biplab_8868/infrastructure-entropy-of-big-data-syst…
Hired a cleaner yesterday. She's a trained and experienced chef, came here legitimately, kids are integrated into schooling... and can't work because Immigration New Zealand are f**king useless still.
I usually don't do cash jobs on principle but it's the only way she can be paid... so seriously, screw our public service.
Interesting. Personally, increasing my red meat and egg consumption (from a more plant based diet with 3-4 servings of meat per week to 4-6 eggs daily + a piece of meat/fish for lunch) while cutting down on carbs has had the most positive effect on my health.
I feel healthier and am much fitter than I was 10 years ago. I should add, it's not solely due to dietary changes but also working out 5-6 days per week for the last year.
I usually don't do cash jobs on principle - great Tui ad for NZ - moan about immigration then pay peanuts under the table as our kids head overseas.
So the taxpayer picks up the tab for educating her kids.(no tax paid by her or your business) just as figures released August showed people aged between 15 and 24 who make up almost half of the newly unemployed, and that many of them want more work but cannot get the hours.
A youth worker says many young people are trying to find a job but it is "really hard" and the difficulties are creating widespread feelings of "hopelessness".
But but but... we need these migrants to pay for all the boomers retiring. Never mind many don't contribute enough in taxes and/or economic activity to cover their own added demand on our infrastructure and public services.
We need more wage slaves and lifetime renters because to work in low-paying jobs because Kiwis won't do it.
Did you actively celebrate the crash in house prices in front of this all kiwi construction crew like you do on this forum…or were you slightly more low-key with consideration to what the flow on to their incomes might be? 🤔😂
I live semi-rurally & agree far less migrant workers in the trades, but the local lads are getting lean on work…& I’m seeing more & more vans from the city in our small town.
Lets put aside the cash job aspect for a second. Cleaning is a pretty much a min wage job, so why would someone employ a recent immigrant over a young kiwi? The young kiwis don't want to do cleaning work? Or they expect more than min wage as an inexperienced cleaner? Or they have a bad work ethic?
Businesses in NZ love the idea of free markets, except when it works against their favour in the labour market. By all means, let's endlessly intervene in those markets giving anyone with a pulse a chance to come work in NZ.
Result: we lack quality engineers, software developers and doctors in this country but no shortage of wage slaves willing to cook them meals, clean up after them and drive them around.
"So the taxpayer picks up the tab for educating her kids.(no tax paid by her or your business)" - in this case yes, but I don't think that is systemic.
Is Auckland, with a large percentage of immigrants, paying less tax per resident than a city where almost everyone is NZ born? I don't have the stats for that, but I suspect it is the other way around.
Auckland is 38% of NZ's GDP but contributes less than 10% of NZ's total exports and has only a small GDP per capita premium compared to the rest of the country (most of which is rural) for a "commercial/financial" capital.
The trouble isn't only what migrants are contributing to the tax pool, but also what they are offering in terms of skills to lift NZ's economic output. Most are being brought here to participate in the domestic economy rather than working in export-oriented, higher value sectors.
An increasingly inward-focused economy in the middle of nowhere is not going to help us pay for first-world infrastructure and public services.
"Most are being brought here to participate in the domestic economy rather than working in export-oriented, higher value sectors" - does it really matter who does what? The domestic jobs need to be done by someone, they would be freeing up a NZ resident to lift NZ's economic output.
Would NZ be any better if NZ born people are running dairies, driving ubers and doing the cleaning, while skilled migrants are doing the high value work?
The main reason we need migrants in NZ is to reduce the average age so we can keep "affording" NZ super. If migrants are not net taxpayers, then we are (more) screwed.
I'm all for more dairies, and also further localisation of pubs, cafe's. They make for more vibrant communities and make many places more desirable to live. Case in point, look at the sprig& fern pub chain which started as a 3 bedroom house gutted and repurposed to a small local pub. Now they have them all around Nelson Bay, and Wellington too, as well as ion supermarket shelves.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier ousted in no-confidence vote
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360511017/french-prime-minister-mich…
This is hilarious, also why councils she should be be all care NO liability. Next time the area floods, and it will, I hope the owners are out there waving the piece of paper and admonishing the flood waters for daring to come close.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360509476/couple-get-hazard-risk-note-r…
I knew a couple who lived in a boatshed on an Australian island. They had a hole cut in its floor the shape of their runabout. They'd come home in the boat - groceries and all - hitch up to the falls and winch themselves up. The boat became the conversation-pit (very 70s).
"Wonder how deep those piles had to go. To hit solid ground?"
Not if sufficient friction comes first. And those big diameter tree trunks create a lot of friction.
Did a project some years back using vibration driven wooden piles. Massive cost savings over concrete or steel. (Seriously massive!) PDK would cream his pants if our architects, engineers & councils boned up on this technique. Can't be used everywhere. But always, always check if you can before just rubber stamping concrete.
I think you'll find the requirements are getting higher all the time.
The local farmlands building was built by driving 9 metre wooden poles in full depth, then pouring the slab on top of that.
A few years later a local wanted to add an extension onto his house. Just one room, they wanted piles at least 6 metres deep.
All depends on soil type etc.
I was looking at a section mid year which had a geotech report (subsurface peat layer). The recommendation was engineered screw piles (to 8m depth from memory). The estimated costs seemed very reasonable compared with my previous concrete slab experiences. Have you any brief views on the respective merits of these vs wooden piles?
My only experience in that kind of thing was duck bill anchors for wind turbine guy wires.50 year stainless wire corroded through in 10 years, down it came.
Our wet possibly acidic soil different to where they are used overseas.
H5 treated wood, 50 years is 50 plus with few exceptions.
I must admit, I didn’t have both Vladimir Putin and Jerome Powell capitulating on Bitcoin on my bingo card this morning. The market clearly didn’t either, given the quick run up from 94-99k.
Putin – “Bitcoin. Who can prohibit it? Nobody. No matter what happens to the dollar, these tools will develop, one way or another, as everyone seeks to lower costs and improve reliability.”
Powell – “Bitcoin is like gold, it's just like gold, only it's virtual, it’s digital.” “It's not a competitor for the dollar; it's really a competitor for gold.”
Powell – “Bitcoin is like gold, it's just like gold, only it's virtual, it’s digital.” “It's not a competitor for the dollar; it's really a competitor for gold.”
I didn't know Bitcoin could be used for reflecting heat, electrical conductivity or jewellery. Ya learn something new every day.
/sarc.
TVNZ's interview with Adrian Orr ... Watch the video - enjoy the squirming as Orr spouts the standard lines (first 10 minutes. (And gets completely caught out with current statements vs. his previous statements.)
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/12/04/reserve-banks-orr-on-housing-market-…
Hopefully someone at interest.co.nz will keep Orr honest. At present he is covering arse ... 'big time'.
Examples? Sure Adrian, blame media for house price increases but ignore the RBNZ's role in that by dumping LVRs? Conflate NZ's local shocks with 'global' ones. And no, Adrian, history will NOT reflect the RBNZ got things rights.
After watching this ... I have changed my stance ... He must go - but the culture he(?) started must remain.
I do NOT ever want a RB governor that can't admit they made mistakes. Nor do a want a RB governor that can't accurately describe NZ's economy. Sorry. And if he goes - the 'chief economist' must too.
Did he say anything that I respected? Yes. 14:20 in the video. And towards the end when he reals off what the RBNZ actually does most of the time.
A RB governor should be, first and foremost, humble and honest. A RB governor is not a politician. They've never been elected. Ergo - they must not - ever - use classic politician tricks to avoid owning their mistakes.
Shame. His heart is in the right place. His actions, and now words, suggest we need a new one.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.