Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news all about the state of the world's factories. Globally, manufacturing stabilised in November with a rise in new orders.
First up today, there were two factory PMI surveys out for the US for November. Both reported their sector contraction eased noticeably. The widely-watched local ISM version reported that new orders are now back expanding, even if the overall sector isn't. They also found that customer inventories are currently "too low", so that could well indicate an expansion is on the cards soon. And the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version was upgraded from their 'flash' report showing similar improvements in new order flows.
In Canada, their factory sector expanded with its strongest result in nearly two years.
In China, the private Caixin factory PMI was noticeably more positive for November than the official version. New orders drove that improvement too, and they were led by new export orders.
The same survey of Japanese factories wasn't as positive and they reported a slightly larger contraction in November.
In Singapore, their PMI rose to a small expansion. But it was equal best since December 2018.
In Malaysia, their PMI eased in November, only slightly, but it remained under pressure with fewer new orders.
Back in China, their 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 2%, a multi-decade low. Modern records for this paper only go back to 2002, but it is easily the lowest since then. The fall comes amid expectations of expanded stimulus from Beijing to support the economy. But expected announcements haven't surfaced so far.
There was quite a bit of data released in Australia yesterday. First, their building consent data for October rose but only because of a catchup in apartment consents. It was a big jump. Consents for houses continued to slip however. But they have had overall rises consistently since the start of the year.
On the retail sales front, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia saw good gains, but retail sales gains in NSW and WA were weak. However, it seems their Black Friday sales were quite positive, giving retailers there hope that the run to Christmas will be a better trading period.
On the factory front, their internationally-benchmarked November PMI contracted at a much slower pace in November, hardly at all, which counts as an improvement for them.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.18%, unchanged from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, but only by +1 bp. Their 1-5 curve inversion is inverted by -25 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now at -43 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.33% and down -4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.01% and a new record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.42%, and down -5 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has opened its week with the S&P500 up +0.3% to yet a new high. European markets were mixed, bookended by Paris down -0.3% and Frankfurt up +1.4%. Tokyo ended its Monday session up +0.8%. Hong Kong was up +0.7% and Shanghai was up +1.1%. Singapore was up +0.3%. The ASX200 ended up a mere +0.1% and the NZX50 rose +0.4% yesterday.
The price of gold will start today at US$2640/oz and down -US$9 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are -50 USc lower at US$68/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is -US$1 lower at just over US$71.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.8 USc and down -50 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we up +20 bps at 91 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 56 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.4, and down -20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,401 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.7%.
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31 Comments
“However, it seems their Black Friday sales were quite positive” - how much profit do they make though. Vacuum cleaner we bought on special for $640 (20% off) a couple of months before Black Friday was down to $499. Either they were making a massive profit beforehand or very little profit on Black Friday.
Suckers both sides of the deal.
I just see them as yet another consumption of a collection of resources, crappily-assembled (or we'd all be out of the market by now - we've all bought one) discardable, not-very-repairable and not fully recyclable.
But notice the discussion is in $$$$?
Agree PDK. Long gone are the days of buying something decent that lasted 30 years and repairing it when it breaks. Although in this case it was a stick vac and the technology is moving so fast that you wouldn't want it to last more than 5 years.
We don't tend to buy much crap, mainly the stuff we actually need (I guess the definition of need is fairly loose), and we try to keep existing stuff going as long as possible. But I know other people who buy stuff simply because it is on special and is a bargain, normally very low quality, not at all necessary, and eventually just ends up in the bin. Or they buy a new TV / computer / phone / car each year because they have nothing better to do with their excess money (I would think a charity would be a better use of excess money)
A greener government should stop this, but won't as it would take down the economy (and people don't like Nanny telling them what to do)
I built an in-house one in our first house. An 8,000 rpm motor, a tricky spiral fan thing, and the carcase of an old industrial upright as the catcher. The pipework was all grey waste-pipe, 45's rather than 90's for the bends. Screw-on caps at stations, and a hand-piece which screwed into them wherever you were.
Kids loved it - you could suck up a marble and hear it clattering along the pipes... No dust in the house, never broke down....
Not sure vacuum technology is moving very fast, just the marketing. The main limitation is the proprietary battery pack. A better solution would be to have swappable batteries which work across all brands and appliances. The EU had to put a power limit on vacuums as suppliers were one-upping each other on power to sell units when above about 1000W there is no additional benefit - just heats your house up faster.
Our new stick vac is significantly better than the previous one that was 4 years old (much better suction and battery life). And that one was significantly better than the first one we bought. It probably won't change so much from here.
Agree that standard batteries would make a huge difference. The EU will probably take the lead and mandate that at some stage. Imagine if we had never had standards such as AA, AAA, etc!
461,000 borrowers behind on their payments
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/challenging-picture-461000-borrower…
Classic how the left wokies can spin anything ... (Alan Dershowitz is an emeritus professor at Harvard Law School)
Imagine if this were Trump
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360508338/pardoning-hunter-president…
" It is clear that Hunter was treated differently … No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son – and that is wrong.”
President Biden is certainly correct in his observations: Hunter would never have been prosecuted if his name weren’t Biden. Yes, he did violate the law, but few if any defendants who do what Hunter did are criminally prosecuted, absent special circumstances."
I do disagree with the pardon. It's a consequence of the consistent erosion of unwritten norms that underpin the US institutions.
I can understand why he did it, when the institutional norms have been so eroded that a convicted felon, adjudicated rapist and compulsive liar is chosen as the best person in the whole of America to lead the Nation, personally I'd also say fuck it, every man for himself. I'm done with the high moral high ground and I'm going to look after my family. There was a time (before the Tea Party and Trump) when this would have been unimaginable. It just shows how far the extreme right has managed to erode the norms of Democratic convention.
Yes
This pardon clearly is all about Trump ...
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-pardoning-his-son-biden-s…
You mean like when Trump pardoned Charles Kushner, the father of Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner?
https://www.newsweek.com/list-who-donald-trump-has-pardoned-1993998
"Figures from Inland Revenue show $38.3 million was withdrawn from KiwiSaver funds for financial hardship reasons in October – the highest on record.In the year ended June 30, 2024, $300.5m was withdrawn for financial hardship, up from $172.9m the prior year."
We have had 4 months of recession since then. So that YOY number is probably climbing fast.
We are borrowing from the future to cover the debt of the past. But a two income household that suddenly becomes a one income household has little choice. No WINZ support available. It's either sell, sell, sell, or draw down savings. The job market is tough now and unless you are prepared to take something instead of nothing it will be a tough road.
Won't someone think of the children?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/535525/canadian-company-finds-more-…
Brother, I enjoy reading your commentary BUT I reckon it’s probably too late for what you are trying to get going. Would it not be better just to go hell for leather, and out with a bang? The current species of human roaming the earth really are a bunch of f-wits and the sooner we wipe ourselves out the better. As agno states above “fuck it, every man for himself”. You may think it’s the easy way out but unless the people start listening to me and living as I do then I can’t see it going any other way.
What is more likely is a long lingering miserable existance as the sudden bang never comes.
Sort of like deciding to run a car into the ground in the hope the engine will terminally expire one day (close to home or public transport). But the reality is one trivial thing after another happens that you either live with or repair while waiting for the terminal breakage that never comes (the car then sits on the drive or front lawn while waiting for another trivial bit to be repaired).
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