Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr says the Monetary Policy Committee expects to cut interest rates another 50 basis points in February, proving good things do come in threes.
The Committee lowered the Official Cash Rate to 4.25% from 4.75% on Wednesday afternoon, following 50 and 25 point cuts in October and August, with another big cut still to come.
Orr told reporters the forecasts were “consistent” with another 50 point cut in February, and that the Committee had talked “explicitly, about moving early in the new year”.
This would bring the OCR to 3.75% and just above the neutral range deemed neither stimulatory nor constraining to the economy, estimated to be anywhere between 2.5% and 3.5%, which the RBNZ is aiming to land in.
After February, the central bank does project the rate of cuts will slow with the OCR not falling to 3% until the end of 2026 — all conditional on economic forecasts playing out.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said her team was still forecasting 25 basis point cuts in each of the next three meetings but the chance of another double cut had increased.
“[The projection] is technically on the fence regarding whether February will bring a 25bp or 50bp cut, but the Governor made a comment at the press conference that made it clear that another 50bp is the default at this point,” she said in a note.
Short-dated interest rates initially moved higher in reaction to the Monetary Policy Statement but fell back when Orr made the dovish comments.
“The RBNZ has taken the OCR a big step closer to neutral, and left its options open from here,” Zollner said.
Orr told reporters the Committee was aiming for the neutral interest rate and didn’t expect to need to stimulate the economy to prevent inflation from falling too far below the target range.
“Headline CPI inflation can easily fall below the band, because it is so volatile relative to core inflation. The dramatic fall in import prices is the main reason we're at 2.2% at the moment”.
The Reserve Bank cannot rely just on low imported prices to keep inflation on target, particularly with trade wars looming, and still needs domestic prices to cool further.
Zollner agreed, writing in a note that non-tradable inflation was still too high, at 4.9% in September, although the weak economy should mean it continues to recede.
“If the data comes in soft, then the RBNZ will clearly not hesitate to deliver another 50bp cut in February, but there’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before then”.
Mortgage rates
Orr and Deputy Governor Karen Silk also had a warning for households looking to refix a mortgage: long-term retail rates are unlikely to fall as fast as the OCR.
The RBNZ forecasts the average mortgage interest rate will decline from 6.4% to 5.8% while the benchmark rate drops from a peak of 5.5% to just above 3%.
This was partly because global bond yields, which banks rely on for long-term funding, have increased as investors price in a less efficient global market and higher interest rates.
Many New Zealanders have been opting for short-term mortgages on the expectation long-term rates will fall as the central bank cuts rates, despite those rates being more dependent on the global market than the OCR.
“We're assuming people will start to move into longer dated mortgage fixes, but the thrill might not be as big as what it looks like on the OCR,” Orr said.
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Willis said it was good news but there was still a long road ahead.
"But the steps the government has taken to carefully prioritise government spending, invest in frontline services, reduce red tape and restore confidence in the economy, are having an impact. We are headed in the right direction.
Trust us
I call BS, they will need to stimulate to either
a - restart housing ponzi - pushing on a string with current unaffordable prices for most
b - stimulate to produce jobs so other way, possibly solar panel 1% loans or massive infrastructure build. Something is needed to provide jobs, though if NZs will not fill them, lets just not do it.
They do not publically acknowledge that the engine needs help to restart, at least farm gate prices are up.
It's going to be (a) isn't it? Investor mortgages overtook first home buyers last month, and overall property purchase mortgages were back at usual levels.
RBNZ are forecasting house prices growth hitting 7% - 8% yoy by this time next year. We're going to do another round of mortgage-fueled growth and the people will lap it up.
1563 FHB vs 1709 Investors.
Now that doesn't factor in cash buyers, it's new loans based on borrower type. But how prolific are FHB cash buyers?
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/lending-and-monetary/new-res…
That's right. Interest rate cuts can slow down the pace of economic decline but cannot single-handedly lead to recovery.
Many skilled Kiwis and industrial employers have quit NZ in the last couple of years and there is nothing going on in the economy for anyone to believe this trend is going to stop or reverse anytime soon.
"PM's real estate hat trick: Christopher Luxon sells third rental property this year" (NZH 27/11/24) .... If its all Sunshine and Champagne ahead why the sell off ? Buy Low ...Sell High... seems the timings out even with that theory. If the market was gonna surge wouldnt you sit and wait it out? Or is it a case of building up capital for the expected....?
Sounds about right. Make thing easier for landlords, then sell off and claim that he is innocent in the matter by next election, then focus on opening up the country to foreign investment and claim that it has saved the day along with the house price increases and have the public vote them back in on the basis that things are on the up and up seemingly.
I haven't properly looked at the new economic forecasts yet, but there are a few interesting changes. When you triangulate, it is clear that the employment, GDP, and unemployment turnarounds next year are based on a big increase in the flow of bank credit - yes, pumped into the housing market! House prices are predicted to be increasing by 7% to 8% by this time next year. The current account deficit is projected to stay around 5% of GDP for another year at least, so with govt deficit spending at 2% - 3% of GDP, RBNZ are assuming that privately debt levels will be increasing at 7% - 8% of GDP per year - consistent with the classic kiwi mortgage-fueled growth model (or loads of new PPP deals).
This approach is only sustainable for 3 - 5 years if the OCR tapers down into the 2s.
I have asked RBNZ what their assumptions are for private debt as a % of GDP going forward. They told me that they don't include that in their models or forecasts. Says a lot.
Housing supports under review Chris Bishop said in June including Accommodation Supplement, more in article.
The Accommodation Supplement had one of the biggest price tags of any of them, having doubled to about 380,000 people - about 20,000 of whom had a mortgage - it now cost about $2.3b a year. That's two Transmission Gully motorways just on Accommodation Supplement. I'm not saying we're going to cut it, it's a very important means of social support for a huge number of New Zealanders - but is it being used the most effective way, particularly as it relates to the way income related rent happens? I would argue it's worth having a look at that. People staying in income-related rent subsidised housing pay a quarter of their income towards rent, with the government topping up the rest. However, benefits and allowances like Accommodation Supplement are included as part of someone's income. If you get a pay rise, or your circumstances render you ineligible - for a variety of reasons - for public housing, and you move into the private rental market, the cliff face on that ... is vast," Bishop said. The incentive is to stay in income-related rent subsidised housing.
That would indicate to me that the funds available would decrease for whatever subsidy they settle on, rather than the expansion that would be required to further support increasing property values.
I cannot see how they can square the circle of reduced support (budget restraint) while promoting credit expansion in the sector....remembering this is also while wages are expected to be flat/reduced.
"I have asked RBNZ what their assumptions are for private debt as a % of GDP going forward. They told me that they don't include that in their models or forecasts. Says a lot."
So how does the RBNZ intend to manage financial stability - when they're not factoring in private debt - should we face a major earthquake or a major outbreak of foot & mouth (ala 12 Monkeys)? Hmmm ... Do I see another covid fiasco in our future?
...and some folks wonder why so many are disengaging from the system; when the flow of capital moves into areas that are destroying our future, to participate becomes a self-destructive act.
The converse of this is that we will only start rebuilding our society when we instead collectively invest into infrastructure/ businesses/ research that can be resilient to a future that is likely to look radically different from the present. Those who currently control the flow of capital are naive if they think accumulating wealth at the expense of the nation is actually a self-serving move.
So not only did you do a small cut (i.e. the bare minimum) in the lead-up to Xmas, the retail period most bank on to get them through the year, and with the biggest gap between this and the next MPS, but you also signalled another cut is coming in February which gives anyone who was already luke-warm on spending money a damn good reason to hold off on spending anything because financing will be cheaper?
NZD will drop to 50cAUD!??? or did you mean to 50c USD?
If NZD will drop to 50c AUD then imagine how cheap NZ house prices will look to all those Kiwi expats who left for Aus because of supposedly "cheaper house prices there"! House prices in NZ will go up by quite a bit as thousands of Kiwi expats and Aussie investors will turn their sights towards New Zealand Real Estate.
Reserve Bank (RBNZ) governor Adrian Orr said as much during a press conference on Wednesday, following the Monetary Policy Committee cutting the OCR by an expected 50 basis points to 4.25%.
“The thrill might not be as big as what it looks like,” Orr said.
The issue is the OCR isn’t the only thing that influences the interest rates consumers and businesses pay.
Geopolitical factors are putting upward pressure on the interest rates banks pay to borrow money from international money markets to then on-lend to Kiwis.
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OCR changes have never translated one-for-one to mortgage rate changes across all terms, with the OCR more directly influencing floating rates and those for loans fixed at shorter terms.
But the global economic environment is currently such that borrowers shouldn’t all expect to enjoy dramatic interest rate cuts.
The RBNZ only expects the average interest rate banks receive for all their mortgages on issue falling from 6.4% to 5.8% in a year.
“It’s not a big decline,” Orr said.
The RBNZ explained, in its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, that the outcome of the US election was putting some upward pressure on banks’ funding costs.
Even though central banks around the world are cutting interest rates, longer-term sovereign bond yields have jumped.
Investors believe the tax cuts President-elect Donald Trump has promised to deliver in the US will result in the country’s books sinking further into the red. Increased economic uncertainty and higher inflation expectations, on the back of Trump’s tariff threats, have also introduced risk, which investors have priced into longer-term assets.
Higher sovereign bond yields in major economies such as the US affect the interest rates New Zealand banks pay to borrow money from offshore. This ultimately trickles through to interest rates Kiwis pay.
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Again, Orr affirmed this, saying borrowers’ “enthusiasm may be tempered a bit, now that they’ve seen other global influences going on”.
Craig’s Investment Partners’ investment director Mark Lister made the same point in a recent column he wrote for the Herald.
He also cautioned overly enthused borrowers that banks had already priced in OCR cuts.
And, he made this point; the Covid-era Funding for Lending Programme saw the RBNZ create money and lend it to banks at a relatively low cost (the OCR) throughout 2021 and 2022.
This meant banks didn’t need to increase mortgage rates by as much as one might otherwise have expected, as the RBNZ hiked the OCR between 2021 and 2023.
Accordingly, mortgage rates won’t have as far to fall now the OCR is being cut.
All this might seem to contradict talk in recent months that OCR changes would flow through the economy relatively quickly, because borrowers have been refixing their mortgages at short durations.
This is still true – people will soon feel the effects of a lower OCR, if they haven’t already refixed on to lower mortgage rates.
The pinch is this relief might not be as soothing as some expected.
The other big factor that affects mortgage and term deposit rates is competition between banks and other institutions.
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