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Dairy prices rise again; Trump makes new/old NAFTA threats; US data positive; Singapore factories disappoint; eyes on RBNZ and Aussie CPI; UST 10yr at 4.32%; gold and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 58.3 USc; TWI = 68.1

Economy / news
Dairy prices rise again; Trump makes new/old NAFTA threats; US data positive; Singapore factories disappoint; eyes on RBNZ and Aussie CPI; UST 10yr at 4.32%; gold and oil little-changed; NZ$1 = 58.3 USc; TWI = 68.1

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that financial markets are being rattled somewhat by the isolationist rhetoric from the incoming US President on tariffs, especially as they will apply to Canada, Mexico and China. However, despite the incendiary nature of the talk, the market reactions have been relatively mild with the expectation the adults in the room will calm things in January.

But these reactions have hit commodity currencies.

One reason restraining Trump might work is that his mind is still in the 2020 past. In fact the Biden Administration has been particularly successful in restraining drug importation, fentanyl in particular, that overdose deaths are falling rather fast now. And restraining the drugs trade from China and Mexico is a motivating reason for those tariff threats. (It was during the last Trump Administration that those deaths spiked.)

Anyway, away from the ramblings of a bitter old man, first up today, we can report higher dairy prices for two key commodities at the overnight GDT Pulse auction event. SMP rose +0.5% in USD terms and was up +1.8% in NZD terms. WMP rose another +2.2% in USD terms to be up +3.5% in NZD terms. This will give upside to all the analyst farmgate payout forecasts, and it seems likely they will coalesce around the $10/kgMS mark now. That, of course, would be a record high.

In the US, their retail impulse is staying 'healthy' as measured by the Redbook survey, and last week it rose +4.9% above the same week a year ago, holding the expansion we have observed for the past eight months.

This was supported by a rise in consumer sentiment, as measured by the Conference Board survey. It is now at the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding their labour market.

Further, there was an improvement in the Texas services sector in November, taking into an expansion. And a return to expansion was also reported for the service sector in the mid-Atlantic states.

But none of this has spilled over into confidence in home buying, yet anyway. New home sales in October dropped more than 17% from the previous month to at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 610,000. And that takes it -9% lower than the same month a year ago.

There was another very well supported US Treasury bond auction this morning, this one for the five year maturity. The median yield rose to 4.13%, up from 4.07% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Singapore’s factory production rose by only +1.2% in October from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +9% rise in the previous month and disappointing analysts. Activity slowed significantly for biomedical manufacturing.

Here's something we rarely report on, but is an indication of the tight ASEAN economies. Car sales in Thailand sank -36% in October from a year ago to be the seventeenth consecutive month of decline, driven primarily by high household debt and significant tightening of loans.

Later today in Australia, we will be following the October CPI indicator and it is expected to reveal a small rise from the prior month.

Join us at 2pm for the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and the OCR review. A -50 bps rate cut is widely expected. But it will be a twelve week gap until the February 19, 2025 MPS, so this review has to carry them through a period which may have considerable international uncertainty attached to it.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.32% and rising +3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve has turned positive again, now +4 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is still inverted, now by -17 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also still inverted by -32 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.49% and up +1 bp. The China 10 year bond rate is down another -1 bp at 2.06%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps from this time yesterday at 4.51%.

Wall Street in its Tuesday trade is up +0.4% on the S&P500. Overnight European markets were down about -0.6% on average. Tokyo ended its Tuesday down -0.9%. Hong Kong however was little-changed and Shanghai dipped a minor -0.1%. Singapore ended down -0.5%. The ASX200 ended down -0.6%. And the NZX50 retreated similarly, down -0.6% with a partial late session recovery.

The price of gold will start today at US$2629/oz and down -US$2 from this time yesterday.

Oil prices are little-changed at just under US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$73.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and down a minor -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps higher at 90.2AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.1, down another -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,496 and down another -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.

Daily exchange rates

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92 Comments

It does not feel very Christmassy this year yet....

Though Trump has given any equity weighted kiwi savers a boast, Milford trying had to do a double every 10 years.

 

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It does not feel very Christmassy this year yet....

That's because we've relegated Santa duties to government, and they just leave us a lump of coal in a fairly worn sock.

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As we look ahead to the final Official Cash Rate announcement of the year, economists are calling for a 50 basis point cut.

Kiwibank economists Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado agreed a 50bp cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Wednesday afternoon was “the right thing to do”.

“We know it, the market knows it, and the RBNZ should know it too,” their latest report said.

“The cash rate should end the year at 4.25%. And hopefully drop another 50bps to 3.75% in February. It’s needed.”

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The private sector is mostly hitched to duopolies and housing speculation, so the government is in-charge of practically every other economic means in this country.

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Follow the money

  • Interest on house - Banks
  • Mortgage Payments - Banks
  • Rent - Landlords and Banks
  • Electricity - Gentailers -under funded lines
  • Food - duopoly supermarkets
  • Rates - council
  • Water - Council - watercare - hopelessy unmaintained
  • Mobile phones - almost duopoly
  • Insurance - not a duopoly but risk premiums are rising FAST

NAct can do little to influence our house outgoings.     RBNZ can slightly influence interest costs and they are slowly reverting to the normal 5.5% .   Council seem unable to control spending, Brown is trying.

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Council seem unable to control spending

I've mentioned before, it will take time and hard work to change lax behaviours adopted through the last governments term of spend, spend, spend and nice-to-haves.

1./ Contracts need eagle eyes oversight to ensure value for money and contractors are not rorting the council for jobs

2./ Staff need to be reminded and enforced that they are spending others money and their decisions impact the costs of ratepayers for decades to come, and re-enforce accountability and transparency for all decisions made.

3./ Everyone should take more active involvement in the goings on of their local council, and take objective views on key issues. Write submissions, attend council sessions if possible We are all responsible for our own communities and cannot abdicate all personal responsibility to elected officials given tat they have been elected on a shrinking voter base due to the lack of engagement in the election process.

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You're talking about trying to instill reason into self serving bureaucracy, from the outside. Even people who get into power to force change struggle to have much meaningful impact.

Philosophically, and psychologically, their approach to doing stuff is counter intuitive.

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Most of them are elected from the Left, who believe in things like MMT (aka magic money trees) - they spend in the belief that there is an unlimited well of wealthy people that they can continue to fleece and "redistribute" it.  Whilst making living in a city so unbearable and expensive that everyone is leaving for Australia where they can save thousands of dollars a year on their rates and actually enjoy driving again.

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Be grateful, under the last govt coal was verboten, you would have got nothing. 😉

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@pragmarist - that is very funny

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Now that Santa has to wear a seat belt, his ability to deliver anything on time will be severely hampered.  Presumably his sleigh has also been speed limited to ensure it remains within the 30kmph speed limit that is now standard in NZ.  

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/santas-helpers-to-wear-seatbelts-in-chris…

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RBNZ knock off the year today. They could meet again in Dec/Jan, but won't. Nice work if you can get it aye. LAZY.

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I think they do a bit more behind the scenes than just turn up to the meetings. 

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Rather than blaming Trump, DC, ask why Trump? 

 

 

 

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Trump is a rejection of

  • defund the police
  • trans wokeness
  • US Financing war in Isreal and Ukraine
  • the fact that biden has been a sleep puppet for years

 

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You missed out the most important one - Biden didn't offer the working class anything to relieve their miserable lives.

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Its global, The Left (including) Labour, have lost connection with the working man/women.  In fact they hate white cis males.

You reap what you sow.  

Now that Trump does not have to consider re election himself, and has both houses he is going to cause carnage on the left within the US

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You're falling into the culture war trap with the left there. Trump and many others before him know the power of 'othering'...

Something wrong with your lives? I hear you my brothers. Now, let me explain how your woes are the fault of immigrants / bureaucrats / woke / communists / Chyyyyna [delete as appropriate]. I'm gonna do something about that and make America great again. It's a tried and trusted routine.

What the left need to do is explain how and why the elite keep the working classes poor and desperate at home and abroad, and why the middle classes are basically debt-worker bees, harvesting credit through the housing ponzi to fatten the top 1%.

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The left keep the working classes and beneficiaries poor because thats their voter base. Last thing a leftist party needs is for the poor to become wealthier and risk them voting for a right leaning party.

The elites benefit from this strategy as they get cheap labour.

 

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"The left keep the working classes and beneficiaries poor because thats their voter base. Last thing a leftist party needs is for the poor to become wealthier and risk them voting for a right leaning party."

LOL. Logic not your strong point then? But you got this bit right ... 

"The elites benefit from this strategy as they get cheap labour."

But there's a problem. Too many poor people and nobody has enough to buy the products. No matter. Just like in the 1920s leading to the Great Depression - make and sell expensive stuff that only the rich can afford.

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Jeez, that's a bad take. The 'left' leaning parties in most social democracies keep the working classes and beneficiaries poor because they think that this cruelty is necessary (a) get the votes of the swing voters they think they need to win elections and (b) appease the business leaders and economists with influence.  

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Its not just the elites.  Its also the white upper middle class that love illegal immigration because it means they can afford to have servants.  Cheap South American nannies, housekeepers, cleaners, gardeners, pool boys, drivers, and all sorts of other menial labourers they can just pick up from the local corner for cash jobs. 

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A paradoxical quandary then isn’t it. The workers have miserable lives. Yet thousands on thousands are prepared to crawl over broken glass to enter illegally to supposedly work illegally where you would consider logically the working conditions and returns  for such illegal work are worse than those that work legally. Now should Trump make the legal workers less miserable would that not in turn improve the lot of the illegals and attract even more of them. Hypothetical merry go round that one  of course, which doesn’t of course take into account the impact if the threatened deportation of large numbers of illegals is actually enacted.  But let’s see now, didn’t someone mention a wall or was that something I watched on Game of Thrones.

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Republicans talk a big game about illegal immigration, but they love it. No-one is easier to exploit than someone who is undocumented. If you think no that can't be true, Trump is different, he doesn't want illegal immigrants, look at the prosecutions for knowingly employing undocumented workers  last time he was president with a massive 11 individuals and no companies charged in 2019!

If they really wanted to stop the illegal immigration they would stop the employers employing undocumented workers

 

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Some time ago, before Trump’s 2016  we l lived and worked in South Jersey. Trump developed a golf course out of disused ski field. Nice job too. The thing is there was an abundance of illegals working widespread in region. Likely because our operation was overseas ownership we got frequent visits from government people and got to know them. Learnt off the record  that the golf course tapped significantly into illegal labour but the owner was too powerful to go after. Members like our neighbour knew it too. But once the presidential run got serious,well they all vanished. Make hay while the sun shines then.

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Jfoe the US working class earn a lot more than ours, and their expenses are lower, they would mostly be considered rich here. Why the miserable lives?

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No, too superficial. Trump is a rejection of an embedded political establishment that demonstrates too often and is seen to be too corrupt. That Trump himself is corrupt is the anathema. I think that added factor is that because of his character, he would never have gained traction with the establishment, but because he was wealthy, real or perceived, he was able to self fund his own run for the first election, that got him inside. His character flaws means he is also seen as very ordinary. 

But he also shows that people will forgive almost anything if they really believe he will be able to deliver on his promises. He can't for most, but it will never be his fault, or he will find a way to get people to hide the true cost.

There are some very real risks though. For the Republicans they are looking to entrench their power, but as they also entrench their privilege and corruption the people will push back and that, as we have already seen, can get very ugly. Politics may become even more polarised (is that possible?) and extremism and violence could increase. People have already raised the risk and spectre of civil war. The US will become more isolated, and most Americans do not really understand that the world leadership considered Trump an idiot and a laughing stock, that is not likely to change. 

Could the UN headquarters be moved away from the US, maybe to Brussels? Unlike the 1940s, the US mainland is no longer safe from attack, so a fractured, weakened nation and isolationist administration may also face bigger external threats if they turn their backs on the world. Consequences to politics plays out over periods much longer than most political terms.

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He runs a high chance of being assassinated, unless he quickly calls some to account for past lack of security.

Much of the waste that Musk is going to reduce is flowing into very rich hands.

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I'd suggest he's far more likely to drop dead from a stroke or heart attack. His diet is junk. And one notes his health reports are hidden.

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No breakfast or lunch..12 diet cokes a day and Dorito's...even Zachary would be shocked!

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Dorito's, that'll explain his skin colour.  

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Extra cheese

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The staple American cheese on offer, general  supermarket types etc, are without doubt the worst cheeses in the world and what they ladle onto fast food is beyond description.  Read somewhere that by 2050, two out of three Americans will be categorised as being obese. Little wonder.

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Dont worry RFK will fix this ;)

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Trump carried the day by exploiting the inexplicable ineptitude the Democrats presented as to securing a second term and at the same time promising improvement to the lot of the common man so to speak. That adds up to very big expectations that not only will he be better than Biden & Co but everybody is going to simply be better off too. Can he deliver accordingly. If by the time of the mid terms, if he hasn’t done so markedly, there will be more than trouble at t’mill. Big trouble in big America I would think which may see the Republicans lose there house majorities. That will hardly settle things down though, quite the opposite in fact.

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Nobody can solve the malaise, neither left or right. 

So it's incumbents out, incumbents out, incumbents out from here on. 

Until it implodes. 

The sad thing is that we get our info filtered - damn near censored - by the MSM. Who are as a result, being sideling more and more - by some sense and by some rabbit-holing. As one who set out to change the false MSM narrative some years ago, I can tell you they will even resort to hissy-fits to avoid reading stuff which might pull the pin on their beliefs. That leaves them doggedly peddling said belief - or set thereof - and becoming ever-more irrelevant. 

A great pity. 

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Trump is a symptom of an all round shrinking pie and a brainwashed proletariat. 

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The pie isn't shrinking !!!  ... It just looks that way because the top 5% are making off with it like bandits.

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Bollocks, Chris. 

The pie IS shrinking; yesterday, like every day, we burned 100 million barrels of oil, and equivalent Boe of coal and gas. Gone. Forever. Every day. 

That's a shrinking pie. 

Only folk trained in the horsepoo that is Econ101, think (?) it isn't. 

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Love your bigotry, PDK. You have a single horse and you're determined to flog it death, aren't you. [rhetorical question]

Oil, coal, etc. aren't the only source of energy on this planet. And we can evolve to use far, far less of them while substituting in alternatives that aren't limited in supply. The day of reckoning, much like the religious who believe The Rapture is going to happen very soon, is much further away than you believe.

It took about 100 years for mankind to evolve to the current level of fossil fuel consumption. I'd put good money on our moving to alternatives taking less. 

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evolving to use far less is Economic contraction. A no no for economic growth / a fiat debt ponzi

https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/a-diesel-powered-civilization-…

"There are no alternative energy sources. Yes, fossil fuels are polluting, are wrecking the climate and are finite. On the other hand, they make all other so called “alternatives” (like nuclear, hydro, renewables, hydrogen etc.) possible via mining ores, smelting metals and making concrete at scale. Sorry, but “renewables” are everything but. These energy harvesting machines are made out of finite reserves of metals — and sit on pillars of steel erected on giant concrete slabs made with coal and delivered by diesel trucks. None of these activities could be made by “renewable” energy at scale. The same goes to nuclear,.. which has (many) hidden problems, none of which can be solved by advanced modular units.

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Thanks - great rebuttal. 

Chris made the mistake of not getting an education. 

EDIT - Note the need to shoot the message, too, rather than do research in his blind areas - blithe assertions in a realm he has no knowledge of. It happens a lot with economics-trained folk - and those who choose to report their utterances. Put something like the most recent Michaux paper under their noses, and they'll have all sorts of reasons to avoid - then will continue to comment as if they have a right. 

Astounding...

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As much as I don't agree with Chis on much he comes across as a reasonably intelligent guy. I think the problem with just about everyone is they think some new tech is going to come along in the future and solve the energy problem. I would suggest that this mentality is poor planning in the extreme, we need to be adjusting consumption on the chance that nothing comes along.

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Its not the (very slowly) growing pie, its the derivative products being traded around it.  Too many are extracting more pie then justified for little effort in increasing its size.

please sir can i have some more.....

When NAct say they want to grow the pie, you can bet you will not notice your stomach being fuller during the process.

meanwhile in a few years time, many NAct MPs will be eating lots of pie on Public Private investment boards.

IMHO only a few like Singapore seem to be focused on the average man.  National should not really exist as a party, but Labour are so bad, many very average

PAYE taxpayers cannot vote for them

 

 

 

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I'd have 'Biden a sleep puppet' at the top of your list.

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Too hard

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Yes. The US (and I don't think most other countries are much better) is not good at self analysis. Their politics makes them too polarised. The court outcome yesterday makes me wonder if Trump's comment about being untouchable as president is really true? Could a President step out of the White House and shoot someone on the street and literally not be charged for it?

Makes a mockery of one of the US's most important claims about why the US is great, that it is a nation governed by laws. That piece of glass has a few cracks in it as it becomes more apparent that the laws are applicable to most but not all.

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I'm not convinced yet, either way, but there is an argument BIDEN stole the LAST election. 

And I may never be convinced - too hard to read. But there's a chunk of Dem vote last time, apparently MIA this time. How come? 

Whatever, the deep state slash military industrial complex, is pulling on every lever it can get its hands on, in the next few weeks. 

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I saw some commentary about that. I would suggest that most if not all a lot realised after watching him in action, either just didn't vote or swapped to Trump. His age was just becoming too dominant an aspect of his Presidency. Despite his junk food diet, Trump seems to be doing very well for his age.

I can't figure it out but there is a strong anti-Kamala movement in the US. For many it seems Biden was more acceptable than her despite his failings. The Dem votes going missing is not a biggie, the massive swing to Trump is. I would expect the overall scrutiny of the voting process would be too high to have it stolen by anyone now

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Her main problem was she was a women...never happen in USA (they hate women).

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Her problem, despite the desperate internet scrubbing of her political record, was that she was an extreme Left candidate who supported radical propositions.  She wanted to decriminalise illegal immigration for instance.  She was left of even Bernie Sanders and AOC.  And since she conveniently didnt mention any actual policies during her campaign, she couldnt be trusted to not revert back to those positions once in power.  

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People of principle may have chosen not to vote at all as neither of the options were very good. Just like 2016.

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Magna Carta comes to mind.

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Precisely.

If the average voter prefers a man of famously dubious moral character, generally reprehensible (and oftentimes incomprehensible) behaviour, who associates with many iffy characters and who - to top it all off - has a strange obsession with eating McDonalds and fake tanning, then maybe you need to ask the important question of "what circumstances have led to the voter preferring this option over the more respectable, mainstream one"? 

As you have astutely commented in the past (and Jfoe on this thread), Trump is more of a symptom of working class dissatisfaction with their lot in life, and a rejection of politics that doesn't appear to have any direct benefit to them. If you are on the bones of your arse - or ass as our American friends would say - do you really care for example what happens in some far-flung Eastern European country you probably can't place on a map? Not an endorsement of Russia's behaviour, by the way. 

Not too dissimilar to Brexit. I don't think the average 'yes' voter ever gave two $hits about the intricacies of tax law or whatever, it was just a way of sticking one's middle finger in the air to express displeasure at successive governments and "elites" (whoopsie, I remember the editor doesn't like that term being used) and their policies and positions e.g. mass immigration that have provided no tangible benefit to the average working class Brit.

I feel like the editors of this site have somewhat lost the plot over the US election. It's all becoming a bit boring and repetitive now. 

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I sense it's not editors plural.

:)

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In the living memory of a Gen X American, you could leave high school and get a job in manufacturing that would earn you enough for a middle-class lifestyle. You would have health insurance and a pension plan. You could save enough to put your children through college (without them needing to borrow to fund exorbitant tuition costs). Now that same high school graduate could only aspire to minimum wage and a collection of name tags and hair nets.

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Same in NZ AJ. 

My view is this is the consequences of the free market economic models the US forced on the world in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. People have forgotten what the role of government is. Rolling it back will be the challenge.

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Seems to be a common colloquialism bandied around these days that all will be solved “by growing the pie.” Similar in much regard to the “trickle down” nothingness that was a predecessor. Problem though, as far as the pie is concerned, is that either those that promise it’s growth are consuming  it before it has grown, or undoubtedly worse, the pie is in truth is resultantly actually reducing, but the consumption remains unaffected. Some of might recall long ago being taught the one about kittens and mittens and the pie reward.Some have chosen to forget.

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Correction, that same university graduate

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somewhat lost the plot over the US election

Unsure how long you've been a reader here, but it has been true for a lot longer than that.  Actually, I don't mind it, his site so may do whatever. 

Where I personally draw the line is the claim of independence when asking for dollars.  Happy to pay if I can do so without being seen to support the narrative this site is independent.

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At the end of the day, people should be voting for policies not personalities.  If NZ had done that in 2020 we might not be in the mess we are currently in.  The ability to appear to be a nice person should not be the main qualification for the top job.  Sometimes it takes a real **** to stand up and effect change.  See Elon Musk and Steve Jobs as corporate examples. 

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Who moved my cheese?  

https://www.samuelthomasdavies.com/book-summaries/business/who-moved-my…

Americans haven't realised that the world has changed and are trying to re-live "Glory Days"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vQpW9XRiyM

or 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77gKSp8WoRg

or

America is not the greatest country in the world any longer. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTjMqda19wk

 

 

 

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Who moved the cheese? Try House Mouse.

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Aussie CPI nudging up could be a sign of things to come for NZ. We are finally at the stage of economic depression when businesses can't pass on cost increases to customers. This is visible when comparing businesses price indices and CPI, and, of courses it is showing up in company closures, liquidations, and job losses.

The OCR reduction today will lower business debt servicing costs (by about $1bn per year) so that should provide some relief from cost pressures, but there are some pent-up price pressures here. If imported deflation stops or reverses, at the same time as consumers get a few dollars back to spend in the new year, we could see CPI increases return. Will that indicate an urgent need to increase unemployment or pause rate hikes?!? Quick... slacken the labour market! 

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The last QSBO said it all. 3% of firms managed to raise costs. 41% experienced cost increases. Massive latent pricing pressure in an environment where layoffs and liquidations appear to be accelerating. Let’s have a think about just what’s happening here.  Take Maketu Pies. 40 people in a tiny town to lose their jobs. I’m making a few assumptions here but assume they were predominately on minimum wage. This has risen about 40% the past few years. Are they producing and selling more? Probably not. This is not a discussion about minimum wage but mathematically in this type of environment businesses don’t have capacity to cover these higher costs so they close. Kinleith- same situation. With multinationals owning so many of our companies they can make a decision to switch out of high cost countries which is what they are doing. Today the solar biz.  This is dire. 

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I heard the PM on hoskins yesterday, they really believe that they can save their way out of this.

We need radical reform and a pivot away from housing as a economic engine.   Sure farmers will support the regions, but cities are screwed here.

I have seen little evidence of the inward foreign investment they talk of, I just see multi nationals closing things and leaving for SE Asia.

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The sinking $ seems to support that.

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We need radical reform and a pivot away from housing as a economic engine

Easier said than done. High net migration in the last decade has allowed our key economic focus to shift from export-led growth to domestic consumption across the board, especially housing.

Controversial opinion: we shouldn't be "wasting" so much of our limited productive capacity on building houses (our largest sector by employment) and associated infrastructure for a rapidly growing population. Residential construction competes for much of the same skills and resources as needed for manufacturing exports and has access to a much larger pool of relatively cheap capital (mortgage lending) that productive businesses lack.

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Looking forward to the Ferry announcement next month..its was fun watching Luxy dance on a pin with is bro Hosk.

I am sure they will announce it 25 Dec.

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For a leftish wing alternative, the PM was interviewed by Guyon Espiner recently as one of the "30 with Guyon Espiner" series of interviews:

Christopher Luxon | RNZ

I don't think these 30 minute interviews are as good as Guyon thinks they are but sometimes there are illuminating moments - like in this one where the PM says he wants to increase productivity but doesn't come up with any plan whatsoever and doesn't want to introduce a CG tax as a property investment disincentive because "reasons".

Disclaimer - I don't think Labour or the Greens would have a credible/viable answer either.

 

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We might be able to save our way out if we maintain service just without the bloat and stop allowing the FIRE sector to make out like bandits as a lot of it heads offshore.  Lower dollar and exports will do okay while dampening import demand, much of which is crap.  The reason the cites are screwed is that there are so many people in them now, but immigration demand is good I'm told...besides, to say otherwise would be racist. 

The first thing to say is, the accounts do show that Australia is in a recession. The most important thing about that is that this is a recession that Australia had to have – Treasurer Paul Keating, November 1990.

I think we might need a decent recession to wake up the voting public, maybe then they'll consider thinking about what they're voting for.  I don't see inward foreign investment as a plus, just locking in future outward revenue streams.  Although, if we sold all the land to foreigners and then put in a land tax, that might work.

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Our wages are high by international standards not because of a skill premium but for workers to cover high housing costs. The added cost pressure from council rates, rents, power, regulatory compliance, etc. is making offshoring a no-brainer for many.

In short, we've let rentiers grow their share of productive incomes in this country to a point that the parasite is now about to kill the host.

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Yep high housing costs are crazy. St Helier’s retirement village selling 124 metre apartment for $21k a metre. (NZ Herald today) WTF?  I’m assuming it’s not all in either. Fees etc will still be similar to other retirement homes. 
Was in the US in September building a cupboard for my house   - 100*50 framing timber $2.98 for an 8 foot length. What’s it here at Carter’s non trade price ?  

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I've had to run around last minute picking up supplies last week for an extension, OMG the prices were absolutely astonishing. $110 per sheet of 7mm ply with 2 rough sides, 12mm treated and smooth is around $180. These are exorbitant, just the tip of the ice berg. Concrete I paid $90 for $25kg of rapid set mortar (40 mpa), $200 for one roll of batts. On and on...

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Try Ply Guy. Just built a 17-metre fence for $1800 including fixings. That's with H5 dressed piles as posts ($30) and LVL for the palings. They deliver.

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Spot on. We're in a mess..

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It's not all bad Jfoe, we're identifying problems and diverting effort to fix them as we go:  Counting people and pay: The ministry with one senior Asian manager

Kia Toipoto is a Public Service Commission plan to reduce gender, Māori, Pacific and ethnic pay gaps in the public service.

Individual ministries also have their own plans - MBIE's runs from 2022 to 2027. "We aim to improve ethnicity representation throughout our people leadership cohort, with an emphasis on Māori, Pacific and Asian employees... With a specific target of 5 percent year on year improvement (at a minimum) until people leadership representation reflects the communities we serve.

I can envisage what the light at the end of the tunnel already looks like already. 

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I agree DKB. But it’s not the wages that are the issue, it’s the cost of housing. We have let our house prices run up so far they that high wages are required to pay for them. 
 

We have a massive problem any many won’t realise until they look back 10 years and see what is gone. From sailmaking to paint manufacturing, it’s all gone overseas.

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But its okay.  Citizens are going overseas as well.  Soon there will be nobody left in NZ except those who are reluctant to give up their special treatment - but even they may capitulate once they realise that there is nobody left to pay for it. 

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Couple of thoughts, JFoe.

1. NZ and Oz are at quite different points in the cycle. (And let's not forget that Oz's economy is vastly different to ours.)

2. NZ's two CPIs. My guess is the next print (or two) of the RBNZ's CPI will show further reductions. Without a trigger, e.g. another energy shock, my guess is that there is enough 'fat' in the RBNZ's CPI to absorb supplier price increases. Further the Real CPI (i.e. the HLPI), thanks to lower interest costs, should keep wage / salary demands under control.

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Yes, agree with that. I am not making a forecast, just recognising that it would only take a couple of things to send 'inflation' back-up again, and, with that there is a risk that RNBZ further botch the recovery.

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I'm hedging my bets and fixing half my mortgage for 5 years in Feb. Trusting the Reserve Bank and not fixing for 5 years during COVID was my worst financial mistake (followed by not buying BTC when it was $800).

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Quick... slacken the labour market! 

We've been front footing that one with immigration for decades!

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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/secret-radioactive-waste-facility-built-n…

I am very surprised that they did not choose Riverhead for its location.

 

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The biggest concern is the belief in the need for secrecy, unless they tried to do it on the cheap. 

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Fallout comes in many forms

:)

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Hippy did not want the Greens to find out about it, they built it in 2022 and it would have been in planning for ages.    I really believe the Whenuapai may have been better location, and closer to most of the low level waste production, also house prices there never fall so it would have been win win.

 

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The biggest, most obscene, insider trading scam ever?

Stop, for a moment, and consider how one could benefit with foreknowledge of Trump's seemingly randomly timed utterances. Billions could be made using leveraged option trades.

Given Trump's past behavior, only a fool would believe Trump isn't capable of such a thing.

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"Breakfast briefing: Old man revives old grievances"

Are Interest commenters really that old DC?

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Overdose deaths almost doubled under Biden.  Any small reduction in the number of deaths recently is still nowhere near restoring them to 2019 levels.  And those levels were still ridiculously high to start with.  And no, deaths did not "spike" under Trump - they increased rapidly under Obama.  Deaths were flat under Trump.  A bit of fact checking of anti-Trump misinformation goes a long way these days!

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm

In addition, due to the election a lot of States were not reporting the deaths in order to make the figures look better. 

The Monthly Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts report provides estimates for the United States and jurisdictions within 4 months after the date of death. Some states currently have longer than usual delays in reporting drug overdose deaths. Recent trends may underestimate the death count in affected states and this potential impact should be considered when comparing results for states to previous months.

 

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Here's the question though; how long does it take for an effective programme catching drugs before they enter the country, to be felt at street level. One perspective is those overdose deaths could be from drugs that cam in during Trump's first tenure? is that information available?

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Almost immediately. Drugs are not warehoused for years.  Nobody holds on to product - its risky, you'll be robbed or raided.  Not to mention financially stupid.  It comes in, its cut, packaged, distributed and sold straight away.  It would be a matter of days from importation before its on the street.

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