Breakfast briefing: Global benchmark interest rates stop rising

Economy / news

US activity eases but still good growth; Singapore's inflation low; Taiwan data mixed; China holds MLF rate; Germany struggling; UST 10yr at 4.29%; gold drops and oil falls; NZ$1 = 58.4 USc; TWI = 68.2

26th Nov 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the market pressure on US benchmark interest rates is easing now.

First, an updated Dallas Fed survey showed the Texan manufacturing sector contracted less in November, the least in 2½ years. This was driven by the outlook mood which improved sharply, post election. But this may just be a partisan hope. New order levels actually fell to their worst shrinkage in a year, and continuing a two year trend of shrinkage in this oil-patch region.

And the broader Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased in October from September to its lowest in nine months in a surprise result that was much worse than market forecasts. This index suggested US economic growth decreased. Current forecasts are that the US economy is growing at just under +2%, although the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has it at +2.6%. Anywhere else that sort of expansion would be considered very good for a developed economy.

There was another large US Treasury bond auction this morning, again very well supported. The yield was 4.24% at this event, and higher than the 4.07% median yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago - but not the sort of rise we have seen recently in other maturities.

Singapore’s inflation rate eased to 1.4% year-on-year in October from 2% in the previous month, and below market expectations of 1.8% gain. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2021, as prices moderated for housing and utilities.

Taiwanese retail stopped expanding in October after a long run of expansion that started in August 2021.

But Taiwanese industrial production is still growing at a healthy rate, although that rate of growth is slowing. It was up +8.5% in October from a year ago, down from an +11% rise in the year to September. A year ago in October 2023 it was falling -2.3%, so they have come a long way since then.

In China, their central bank injected ¥900 bln into financial institutions via a one-year medium-term lending facility yesterday at an unchanged rate of 2.0%. That compared with the ¥1.45 tln of MLF loans due this month, marking a net cash withdrawal of ¥550 bln.

After the March to August rises, the German IFO sentiment survey returned to its lows for other than the GFC or the pandemic. Analysts see a fading of strength in an economy that was only recently an engine of Europe. And overnight, ThyssenKrupp, the largest steel maker in Germany, said it would cut its workforce by up to 11,000 from the current 98,000, by 2030.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.29% and down -12 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve has slipped back into a -1 bp inversion. Their 1-5 curve inversion is much more inverted, now by -19 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also more inverted, now by -32 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.48% and down another -9 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.07%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 4.57%.

Wall Street has started its truncated Thanksgiving week up +0.3% on the S&P500. Overnight European markets were in the range of non change in Paris, to up +0.5% in Frankfurt. Tokyo ended its Monday up +1.3%. Hong Kong hwever was down -0.4% and Shanghai was down -0.1%. Singapore ended down -0.4%. But the ASX200 ended up +0.3%. The NZX50 starred in this set, nearly matching Tokyo with a +1.2% rise.

The price of gold will start today at US$2631/oz and down -US$85 from this time yesterday.

Oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$69/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$73/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.4 USc and up a minor +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps higher at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.2, down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,648 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.

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93 Comments

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Nov 24, 7:38am 1732559912

Growth cannot be 'good' if it's killing off other species and threatening ourselves.

by Foxglove. | 26th Nov 24, 7:44am 1732560254

Just like children getting taller there has always been growth pdk. The thing is though, that during the last 100 years or so, the industrial, commercial and consumer growth of the human race has simply got itself strapped to a rocket. One might well wonder, if the humans hadn’t discovered the billions of resources that ancient nature had stored by the way of oil, what the world would be like today.

by murray86 | 26th Nov 24, 8:31am 1732563090

Only ever within available capacity Foxy. Even balloons burst if you over inflate them, and the envelope has no more give to give. I realise PDK tends to take an extreme view but that doesn't mean he is wrong. But considering Profile's post below, if that trend continues and there is no guarantee that it will, it could delay 'crunch time'. But nothing is ever for free when you throw in politics. What would Xi's, Putin's or some other power hungry numpty's reactions be when they realise a population decline is a real threat to their aspirations of power and immortality?

While a fight over resources may be a real possibility, the starter may be for other reasons.

by Foxglove. | 26th Nov 24, 9:26am 1732566392

However it is it is undeniable that oil and mostly burning it has catalysed change even more than the industrial revolution. Just like predecessors, stone, bronze, iron ages we are all now living in the age of oil and humanity would now be hard pressed to live without it. Just think about the military for a start. Steam powered aeroplanes or tanks or even trucks, don’t think so. The internal combustion engine, and similar, revolutionised everything in sight and beyond.

by agnostium | 26th Nov 24, 10:10am 1732569021

we are all now living in the age of oil and humanity would now be hard pressed to live without it.

*will* be hard pressed to live without it. It's finite, it will run out. It will run out more quickly than most people expect because we are taking a bigger chunk of it each year and the stuff that is left is increasingly hard to get and requires even more oil to get to it. At some point, the amount of oil required to get to the untapped oil will be more than the amount of untapped oil available.

If you have a 100 million in savings and start by taking out 100K a year, it seems like you have plenty but if you double the amount you take out each year (because everyone in the world is trying to match the super rich) that 100 million doesn't last very long.

by AN Other | 26th Nov 24, 10:35am 1732570521

"What would Xi's, Putin's or some other power hungry numpty's reactions be when they realise a population decline is a real threat to their aspirations of power and immortality?"

Funnily enough, a couple of years ago a commentator on the net somewhere said that Putin had invaded Ukaine when he did because he realised that if left any later he wouldn't have enough men of fighting age to have a chance of winning.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Nov 24, 11:10am 1732572617

Putin not getting any younger himself. Spent COVID in his bunker figuring how to shore up his dictatorships flagging popularity. What better way than to give its aspirational neighbour a slap and bring it back to the poverty offered by the Kremlin? Fuelled with that giant chip on his shoulder, short angry man syndrome and legends of super human patriotic war exploits, what could go wrong?

by MacroView | 26th Nov 24, 7:54am 1732560853

Is it threatening humans though pdk? You suggest an extreme position but it's rather unsupported by evidence. There are no looming major resources shortages.

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:05am 1732561538

To be fair, his post doesn't suggest resource shortages (although I'm sure he'll mention it sometime soon).

The evidence? We have out of this world abundance and personal security. Yet society is getting more fat, tired, sad, and anxious. We don't even want to procreate anymore.

We don't know where we're going, or why. We're just rapidly changing everything, assuming it'll end up somewhere better.

by profile | 26th Nov 24, 8:06am 1732561596

The is no evidence of any resources are in short supply - other than babies. "Despite tremendous population growth in the last century, the planet is richer and better fed than ever before—and natural resources are more plentiful and less expensive (after adjusting for inflation) than ever before."

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-g…

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:08am 1732561714

It's hard to argue there's a limited amount. So far our ability to identify and extract them has outpaced our demand.

I would put more weight into global security increasing scarcity before we get short on things.

by Tim Depositor | 26th Nov 24, 8:29am 1732562977

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153608/global-freshwater-abrup…

by rastus1 | 26th Nov 24, 11:33am 1732574026

Society is getting fat, tired, tired and anxious because of shortages. They eat c##p unhealthy food because the good stuff is rationed by price i.e shortages.

No procreation for many because of housing shortages...and other reasons, but they are all resource related when think through it.

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 12:13pm 1732576394

The fatness is because we have a largely limbic economy. Much of what we consume is geared to jack up our dopamine system, and sugar's a good way of doing that, and a good way to perk yourself up a bit when you're sad. Then you get more sad, because you're fat.

Sit around all day searching for that next great find online, you feel tired and lazy.

So we've turned into a society of junkies, just that rather sitting in a corner monged out with a needle in your arm, we're scrolling, eating, feinding.

Housing supply only plays a minor role in procreation.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Nov 24, 8:04am 1732561472

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Simon-Michaux-2/publication/351712…

https://www.unep.org/resources/Global-Resource-Outlook-2024

You pen-name perhaps doesn't reflect your scoping...

by Zwifter | 26th Nov 24, 8:27am 1732562829

The evidence is that we live on a rock flying through space with limited resources that will not support unlimited population growth or eventually not even current numbers. Sooner or later its pretty much all gone and you will have to rely on renewables making renewables and it will simply not sustain the world as we know it.

by buyandhodl | 26th Nov 24, 10:31am 1732570263

We'll mine other rocks floating through space then.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Nov 24, 9:52am 1732567940

"Growth cannot be 'good' if it's killing off other species and threatening ourselves."

Agree. But 'growth' that keeps fossil fuels in the ground and restores habitats can be pretty good.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Nov 24, 3:03pm 1732586625

Th Chris of no name:

THERE IS NO SUCH THING.

Pity you didn't do a sciences paper; any one would have done.

by singautim | 26th Nov 24, 12:41pm 1732578074

That's true but contains an 'if'. When I worked in a tropical 3rd world country over a dozen years I saw the road side trees that gave needed shade progressively cut down by villagers and settlers who needed firewood to cook their dinners. With more money they could buy solar panels. Some have begun to do so and use it for refrigerators so their food doesn't go off. This problem was triggered by modern medicine resulting in rapid population growth and their firewood scavenging is caused by poverty. If they go backwards then it is a return to every third child not reaching the age of five; if they stand still it means ever longer walks to find firewood; the only option is they must have growth - that is growth in wealth not population.

Otherwise for developed countries you tell the truth.

by KH | 26th Nov 24, 1:54pm 1732582474

Just spent a few days circling through Southland. Impressions.

1. The place is vast, especially with productive farmland. It just goes on and on. That's why Southland is rich. It's a land of opportunity for business.

2. We are eating oil. (PDKs point). Everywhere you look there is diesel being used to make our food. You don't even need to look, you can hear. No diesel, no food. But Southlanders are clever. We shall see.

by Advisor | 26th Nov 24, 7:58am 1732561134

With gas supplies dwindling, over a million households and commercial users along NZ's piped gas network will be forced to spend 7k to 20k to replace gas appliances with electrical ones.

I did a quick back of envelope calculation. If all households using piped gas in NZ switched to electricity, we would require an additional 6TWh of energy each year, despite an optimistic 2.5x factor applied for efficiency gain from heat losses.

That would put immense strain on our already stretched power system.

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:01am 1732561261

Assuming we don't just import gas.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Nov 24, 8:08am 1732561728

Competing with a growing list of countries?

All resorce-endowed countries start out as exporters. They export more and more, while using more and more internally. Inevitably, in all cases, their supply-rate peaks, fter which they become net importers.

Which, of course, every country cannot be...

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:15am 1732562140

Competing with a growing list of countries?

Until the point where it's more viable to replace gas appliances with electric.

by Advisor | 26th Nov 24, 8:17am 1732562255

The sector will not spend $50-150M on an LNG terminal only for a change in government in 2-5 years rolling back of LNG import laws.

The lobbies have made it clear that such investments will only be made with significant contributions from the Crown.

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:30am 1732563007

If you're right, then it's time to invest in a hot water cylinder business.

by Peter M | 26th Nov 24, 8:10am 1732561840

Phasing out papermaking at Kinleith will kick the can a couple of years further down the road. Chemical pulpmaking is mainly self sufficient in energy. See: https://www.gasindustry.co.nz/data/gas-production-and-consumption/

But...again it comes with a loss of 200+ well paid rural jobs.

by Zwifter | 26th Nov 24, 8:23am 1732562582

Problems with Gas are the very least of our problems, I have two 45kg bottles only for the gas hob and they last 5 years.

by Colin Cameron | 26th Nov 24, 10:28am 1732570092

Advisor gas appliances are easily coverted to running on hydrogen. Lot of talk about making green hydrogen here in NZ with geothermal power.

by The Person | 26th Nov 24, 1:05pm 1732579540

Right so we can simply import LNG and convert it to hydrogen, replace the entire gas network with hydrogen safe pipes, then replace all appliances with similar hydrogen burning ones.

by AN Other | 26th Nov 24, 2:25pm 1732584315

Is there such a thing as hydrogen safe pipes? Hydrogen apparentry embrittles all metals, which is one of several problems that the hydrogen proponents don't talk about.

by Advisor | 26th Nov 24, 1:27pm 1732580877

Make hydrogen with what? Electricity? Takes us back to the issue that we don't have enough spare capacity in our generation mix any more, which is why electrifying gas usage was going to be a task.

That is before you consider that roundtrip efficiency of hydrogen is a joke, i.e., it takes more energy to produce and transport hydrogen than what you can get out of burning it plus the heat losses. Using electricity on efficient appliances to heat water and cook meals is a far better idea.

by Ty Coch | 26th Nov 24, 1:16pm 1732580170

Why would switching from one form of energy to another require more energy, particularly if there is an efficiency gain?

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Nov 24, 3:14pm 1732587295

It takes energy to obtain energy. Known as Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI).

EROEI tells us that hydrogen is negative (as are batteries, for that matter). You get less out, than you put in - the Laws of Thermodynamics are real.

Talk of geothermal-to-hydrogen is physics-ignorant; the rantings of the ill-informed.

Even where there are genuine efficiencies (remembering that they have hard upper limits via Thermodynamics and Carnot) the Jevons paradox applies; we just use more. Thus we've not displaced fossil energy with renewable, merely added the two. Same with the likes of cycleways; not a displacement but an addition.

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:00am 1732561213

Good take on the current state of the OCR/Interest rates

https://youtu.be/ZMZkDh3SPRw?si=aVujoz13aHUYrSCK

Interesting to see that the current average mortgage interest rates is only 4.6%

by Jonny.Foe | 26th Nov 24, 8:37am 1732563441

Current average yield on mortgage rates (the effective rate) is about 6.4%

by profile | 26th Nov 24, 8:03am 1732561412

...humans are about to enter a new era of history. Call it “the age of depopulation.” For the first time since the Black Death in the 1300s, the planetary population will decline. But whereas the last implosion was caused by a deadly disease borne by fleas, the coming one will be entirely due to choices made by people.

...Just two generations ago, governments, pundits, and global institutions were panicking about a population explosion, fearing mass starvation and immiseration as a result of childbearing in poor countries. In hindsight, that panic was bizarrely overblown. The so-called population explosion was in reality a testament to increases in life expectancy owing to better public health practices and access to health care. Despite tremendous population growth in the last century, the planet is richer and better fed than ever before—and natural resources are more plentiful and less expensive (after adjusting for inflation) than ever before.

...Should South Korea’s current fertility trends persist, the country’s population will continue to decline by over three percent per year—crashing by 95 percent over the course of a century. What is on track to happen in South Korea offers a foretaste of what lies in store for the rest of the world.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-g…

by Pa1nter | 26th Nov 24, 8:07am 1732561625

Assuming urbanisation doesn't fall out of favour, probably.

Apparently birth rates in cities like Beijing and Shanghai are below .5.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Nov 24, 8:11am 1732561906

and natural resources are more plentiful...

Bollocks - in all respects they are less plentiful.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Nov 24, 11:15am 1732572917

And dropped in quality.

by kiwikidsnz | 26th Nov 24, 8:35am 1732563357

Human population through time

(American museum of natural history graphic video, 6 minutes, forecast at end)

https://youtu.be/vJ5p3pZlBi4?feature=shared

by JimboJones | 26th Nov 24, 8:29am 1732562961

"In hindsight, that panic was bizarrely overblown" - we may say the same thing about low birth rate panics. Hard to know if low birth rates comes from decades of governments disincentivising having kids (which could be fixed), or if it just that people genuinely don't want kids.

Look at NZ for example. Unlike in the old days where everyone got family support, now you need to earn less than minimum wage to get anything from WFF. The only support an average family gets is free day care, and if you want to stay at home and look after your own kids you get nothing at all, you can't even share the tax burden!. There is a massive financial disincentive to having kids.

by Jonny.Foe | 26th Nov 24, 8:56am 1732564601

I often think that a unifying economic goal for people in NZ would be that one person working full-time should be able to live reasonably well and support a small family without a cash subsidy from Govt.

by Frank. | 26th Nov 24, 9:05am 1732565106

Agreed, although even 50 years ago many in that dynamic ended up claiming the Family Benefit.

by singautim | 26th Nov 24, 12:55pm 1732578937

When I was young and living in England my mother received a universal child benefit. Universal benefits are cheap to administer and more difficult to rort; ref Super.

It is hard to get governments to treat children well because unlike pensioners they do not vote. A solution would be to nationalise children: if they all belonged to the state then caring parents would be encouraged and those bastards who abuse their children prosecuted fast. Start by prosecuting all parents who have truant children.

NZ children should be NZ's best long term investment.

by interesting1234 | 26th Nov 24, 9:22am 1732566143

Same here. It seemed to be the pinnacle of communities in NZ thriving when lookin back.

by JimboJones | 26th Nov 24, 1:30pm 1732581040

They would be living in poverty though as poverty is relative. If one person working full-time should be able to live reasonably well and support a small family without a cash subsidy from Govt, then a couple who do not have a family will be super rich with two incomes and no kids to pay for. This then means the first person is actually living in poverty by most definitions. At the very least they are making a big sacrifice to have kids that others are not.

by singautim | 26th Nov 24, 4:00pm 1732590050

You can have money or family but not both.

If children were legally property of the state with their parents merely providing a service to the state by raising the children then the state would be responsible for the basic costs of raising Kiwi kids. It is accepted that the state pays for basic education and medical costs so why not the cost of realistic parental leave - say 18 years not 0.5 years. Also to be raised properly children require a bedroom or two bedrooms if children are male and female - so pay the difference between the average 2 bedroom property and the average 3 bedroom property as an extra child benefit. This is a very expensive proposal but it eliminates child poverty and eliminates multiple layers of means tested benefit cost and admin cost.

by K.W. | 26th Nov 24, 10:22am 1732569777

There are great incentives to have kids. You get to go on a benefit, dont have to look for work, and get a free house from the Govt. Evidence of this is reflected in the Census Stats.

The number of single-parent families in New Zealand has been growing, increasing by 7.9% from 2018 to 2023. This means that almost 1 in 5 children in New Zealand live in a single-parent family.

As Charlie Munger used to say, "show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome".

by singautim | 26th Nov 24, 12:56pm 1732578981

Just make it a universal benefit.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Nov 24, 11:27am 1732573657

"or if it just that people genuinely don't want kids."

Having kids has to compete with all the entertainment on offer. Lets see? Sleep deprivation, huge expense, ungrateful ignorant teens, sacrificing your other hobbies, interests, dreams. Or, head off for weekends, with nice meals and plenty of relaxing sleep, for those 18 years, (or 35+years)? Hmm?

by interesting1234 | 26th Nov 24, 12:02pm 1732575729

Everyone has different values. what used to be called selfish if no having kids, is now called a valid and understandable choice by society. Some wish to live their best life and live vicariously through others if they like kids, as they'll likely have nephews or nieces, friends kids etc. Others wish to have children and raise them, see an image of themself and sacrifice some things to best ensure they get a decent chance at life with all the experiences it has to offer, then in their later years be able to watch them repeat the cycle if they choose with their own kids and have family around them when they finally come to pass. Variety is the spice of life and we've never had so much choice in the history of mankind n so many ways.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Nov 24, 8:43am 1732563832

I find it somewhat ironic that a group that dismisses LTG are celebrating one of the outcomes forecast by that model.

by Frank. | 26th Nov 24, 9:02am 1732564945

What’s the go then? Is depopulation a good thing or not? Has to be, right? If it really does take hold I’d be willing to tweak the CE@70 action.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Nov 24, 9:18am 1732565915

Is it a good thing or a bad thing?...it is both.

It is a positive in terms of better fitting our environment but it is a (big) negative in terms of our financial, economic and social structures...so in the short term it will (decades, if we manage to navigate it) it will cause instability but long term it may save us from ourselves.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Nov 24, 11:31am 1732573919

Don't agree smaller population is bad for social structure. Small communities are far superior to the dysfunctionality you see with huge population centres. They tend to be more egalitarian for a start.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Nov 24, 11:37am 1732574259

Smaller in toto yes....but it depends upon the demographic structure of that society.

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 9:16am 1732565784

the coming one will be entirely due to choices made by people.?

So falling fertility rates is a choice?

by Yvil | 26th Nov 24, 10:16am 1732569369

Yes, have you not heard about contraception?

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 10:21am 1732569661

I bloke with slow swimmers is caused by contraception - are we getting personal?

by K.W. | 26th Nov 24, 10:26am 1732569960

You can probably add in the popular fad of genitally mutilating children rendering them infertile.

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 10:29am 1732570179

Yes circumcision needs to be banned - agree with you KH.

How's the packing going for your Nirvana Ozi going... ? I was in Sydney recently and did not see one Indigenous Australian - you will love it.

by Yvil | 26th Nov 24, 10:34am 1732570457

Circumcision does not make one infertile Baywatch.

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 10:36am 1732570615

Oh my bad - replying to KW

Thus we find evidence suggesting that the practice of female circumcision does not have a statistically discernible effect on women's ability to reproduce.

by 26@Main | 26th Nov 24, 10:58am 1732571905

Can you explain better what you mean? A popular fad, where?

by agnostium | 26th Nov 24, 8:07pm 1732604852

Boomer conspiracy facebook

by Yvil | 26th Nov 24, 10:28am 1732570088

"the planet is richer and better fed than ever before"

Indeed, but this is not reconciling well with those who live in fear of scarcity and think the end is nigh.

by KH | 26th Nov 24, 1:56pm 1732582582

New Zealand would be better with two million people.

by Yvil | 26th Nov 24, 3:01pm 1732586473

Well… you could lead the way and leave, if you don't like it here.

by bender | 26th Nov 24, 3:13pm 1732587225

Read that simple sentence again. Didn't say she didn't like it here, just one way it could be better. Better doesn't mean it is bad now.

by KH | 26th Nov 24, 3:16pm 1732587392

Nasty Yvil.

by kiwikidsnz | 26th Nov 24, 8:11am 1732561885

Assessment of Oz main city house price +/- over next year

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-25/house-prices-to-fall-2025-melbou…

by agnostium | 26th Nov 24, 9:22am 1732566127

Thanks for sharing. And all their predictions, even the worse case scenario, seem to be based on heroically optimistic global assumptions (i.e world peace).

by John from Bunnings | 26th Nov 24, 8:44am 1732563875

As expected, looks like the 10 year bond yield is taking a dive again, more than 25 bps down since a fortnight ago. Hopefully the market realises that the trajectory on inflation progress will be more or less affected by the trump administration and a return to normal requires more rate cuts.

by Eschaton | 26th Nov 24, 9:30am 1732566650

Why can't RBNZ meet in December and/Orr January? Seems very LAZY to me.

Orr is one of the higest paid people in this country.

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 9:52am 1732567956

Orr come on - he has plans, head to the bach in flash Ute to catch some fish in his flash boat - the kiwi trifecta!

by Yvil | 26th Nov 24, 10:30am 1732570255

Why would Orr drive a ute ?

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 10:34am 1732570476

To tow the boat ....plus his belt sizes seem to be increasing - all those canapes I guess?

by Yvil | 26th Nov 24, 3:04pm 1732586647

He's not a tradie, I think he's much more likely to tow the boat with his Range Rover if his boat was small enough to be towed, which I seriously doubt. He will have it permanently moored at pier T or Z at Westhaven.

by Middleaged | 26th Nov 24, 3:23pm 1732587824

You need a ute to survive the potholes and speed bumps these days.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Nov 24, 10:00am 1732568400

The role of the RBNZ was originally seen in 1990 as very much as a background role.

It's role has become more prominent due to a) banks pretending what rates they set is influenced far more than they are by the RBNZ, b) politicians pretending far too much of NZ's 'economic policy' is in the hands of the RBNZ, and c) certain governors grandstanding and overreacting.

by Advisor | 26th Nov 24, 10:24am 1732569855

The collective debt Kiwis owe, mostly to foreign lenders grew to 790 billion in 2023. That was $60 billion more than a year ago.

A big reason why the agencies (banks, etc.) that deals in debt and sets its price, including the institution that regulates monetary policy, are all growing in power.

by kiwikidsnz | 26th Nov 24, 10:19am 1732569569

Finance Minister Willis Challenges DownToEarth.Kiwi (Robert McCulloch) to give her "ideas" about how to Break Monopoly power in the NZ Economy. Here they are.

Finance Minister Willis Challenges DownToEarth.Kiwi to give her "ideas" about how to Break Monopoly power in the NZ Economy. Here they are.

by Middleaged | 26th Nov 24, 12:46pm 1732578410

Robbert McCulloch's main idea is "privatise the health system". Just like America which has about the least efficient healthcare system in the world.

Except that he uses the example of France, which invests 11% of its (considerable) GDP on healthcare while NZ invests about 6% of GDP in health. So yes, let's do it! Double our healthcare spending and then we would find that our current system will work just fine.

Hell, we cannot even run our world-leading ACC scheme properly.

by kiwikidsnz | 26th Nov 24, 6:22pm 1732598568

In fact it was 1 of 3 main recommendations & you also contradict yourself directly within 1 comment by stating "just like America" & "uses the example of France".

"Every Kiwi, regardless of income, should be able to choose provider, whether public or private, in consultation with their GP, with the bill paid for by the government. Health NZ is a far larger monopoly supplier than the Big Banks and Supermarkets combined. Kiwis who can't afford private care have no other choice but to go public. The system I'm recommending is similar to the one in France, which has the best health-care in the world."

by Middleaged | 27th Nov 24, 7:17am 1732645028

The French healthcare system may indeed be very good. But it is funded at twice the level of NZ. Where's the money coming from? We already have a strong private health system which receives A LOT of public funding so arguably we already have a version of the French system?

NZers love their public health system, even if has been ru into the ground over the last 30 years.

by kiwikidsnz | 26th Nov 24, 10:20am 1732569641

Finance Minister Willis is Sitting on a Gigantic Fiscal Hole - she's conjured Figures in Budget 2024 that Contradict Treasury's Long Term Fiscal Forecasts.

by Baywatch | 26th Nov 24, 10:26am 1732569971

Did Willis fake her forecasts?

Hopefully the track is real and not fake as well?

by blobbles | 26th Nov 24, 11:11am 1732572692

OMG colour me surprised Austerity program causes government revenue to drop in relative terms. Who could have ever predicted that? (only almost every economist for the past 100 years or so).

We have a huge health burden coming online as the baby boomers retire, showing up in those graphs... and yet putting the economy into reverse to somehow help pay for that is Willis' plan. Well done everyone who voted for shooting yourself in the foot.

by Middleaged | 26th Nov 24, 3:15pm 1732587327

Thank heavens our landlord tax cuts are funded through general taxation and not from borrowing.

by Frank. | 26th Nov 24, 12:54pm 1732578850

Nikki Kaye has died at 44. Reflect, regroup and confirm what is really important in your lives. I say live for the day, keep smiling.

by solardb | 26th Nov 24, 1:00pm 1732579234

Way too young. Respected by all parties.