Former president Donald Trump has secured a second term at the head of the United States government after sweeping the swing states and seeing off his Democratic rival.
The race was extremely close. By sunrise, the Associated Press still hadn’t called a winner, but enough votes showed Kamala Harris had lost key battleground states by about two points each.
Meanwhile, Republicans had secured a Senate majority and could still hold onto the House, paving the way for Trump to propel the world’s largest economy further into protectionism.
This means imposing a 10% tariff on all imports, including those from New Zealand, as well as cutting taxes for businesses which produce goods inside the US.
Tim Groser, a former trade minister who served as Ambassador to the US during Trump’s first term in office, told Newstalk ZB that his re-election was “all bad” for NZ trade.
However, he did not believe the former president would be able to implement all of the policies pitched on the campaign trail.
“He will certainly try [but] there are massive problems that he is completely unaware of — I don’t believe for one minute that he can implement the full force of what he is proposing,” he said.
For example, candidate Trump promised to “rip up” the NAFTA trade deal during the 2016 campaign but ended up keeping 85% of it once in office.
It would be “utter madness” to slap 10% to 60% tariffs on intermediate imports, which are used in American manufacturing, as it would dramatically increase prices.
Elections around the world this year have demonstrated that voters despise inflation above all else and will vote a government out of office if it happens on their watch.
The United States’ economic data is the envy of the world, right now, but voters are furious about high prices and blame them on the Biden administration.
Election analyst Nate Silver argued on Twitter there was a correlation between higher inflation and the states that had swung toward Trump, though it may not be scientific.
Checks and balances
Groser’s point was that Trump’s political allies won’t allow him to sabotage their future election chances by reigniting inflation and making everything more expensive.
“Is it positive, hell no! But please keep things in perspective,” he said, speaking about both Trump’s climate and trade policies.
It will be important for New Zealand to get onside with the Trump team and attempt to steer them away from trade policies which might harm its interests, Groser said.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon joined other world leaders in congratulating Trump on his election victory after the race was called by some news networks on Wednesday evening.
In a statement, he said he was looking forward to working with the new administration and that the NZ–US relationship was “strong and enduring”.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters said ‘the American people have spoken” and also congratulated Trump and his vice president JD Vance.
“New Zealand and the United States are two great democratic, open societies — and our bilateral relationship will continue to go from strength to strength”.
In private, these leaders will be frustrated by Trump’s victory. They had been pivoting foreign policy closer to the United States and asking it to help insulate global trade against China.
That work will continue but the new administration will be less sympathetic to the cause.
Global security could also become more volatile as Russia and Israel reassess their military options with a more friendly face in the White House.
MAGA markets
But it was a happy night for investments associated with Donald Trump. Many financial assets rallied as it became clear he would win the White House on election night.
Bitcoin hit a new record high as he has promised not to impose regulations on the cryptocurrency sector, which has thrived without complying with traditional rules.
Shares in Elon Musk’s Tesla surged in after-market trading and Trump’s own listed media company climbed 10%, while US stock futures rose more generally.
Bond yields rose as investors predicted big deficit spending and tariffs adding to inflation pressure in the US economy. These higher interest rates also pushed the US dollar higher.
But this all bad news for the Kiwi dollar which tumbled 1.6% when the first election results were reported on Wednesday, although it has since recovered half that loss.
Other assets exposed to tariffs also fell, most notably the Mexican peso and the Hong Kong stock market both dropped about 3% as investors priced in higher trade costs.
Trump is back and we have to live with it, for better or for worse.
Additional reporting by Ella Somers
122 Comments
Mencken's quote is: "No one in the World...ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people".
The emendation about the American Public seems to be attributed to a number of others, including Louis B. Mayer - who would probably know.
It takes the right-wing Daily Telegraph to point out the flaw in Kamala Harris: her only discernible policy was Not Being Trump; she stood for nothing.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/11/06/kamala-harris-ran-the…
https://archive.is/ggOhn
The joke is on the long list of famously liberal film stars and musicians endorsing Harris believing that would work. The tired DEI narratives work when you publicly shame corporate leaders and Hollywood casting agents for their visible choices but not when it is secret ballot.
Even Black and Latino men rejected her in surprising numbers as per exit polls. Asian diaspora, especially Indian and Chinese, generally tend to be right leaning.
To be clear, Black, Latino and Asian voters tended towards Harris, although the Dems won a much smaller proportion from these groups than they normally would expect to. 86%, 53%, 56% respectively according to exit polls:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0lp48ldgyeo
It is interesting to see that >65 year olds were much more likely to vote Dem than the 45-65 group - pretty much 50/50 for the >65 group.
Yeah, with just low-mid 50%s of Hispanics and Asians voting Dem countrywide, I expect that in strong Republican states they got a majority. Apparently there was a ~10% swing in the Hispanic vote vs 2020 - 18% for male Hispanics.
Probably considered 'in the bag' by the Democrats in the past, now very much a toss-up. Maybe we'll have to stop thinking about people primarily in terms of their ethnic origins...
You'd have to put yourself in their shoes for a minute tho.
The immoral side seems to be outweighed by a dislike for the growing elitist, wealthy, global brigade who are sucking up all they can get at the expense of the have not, and those whose pie slices get ever smaller.
People in the US (and elsewhere) want change and for someone to sya that they will champion their cause.. Trump just says what they want to hear, divides and gives hope to those who want that.
Don't disagree with anything you say OSE. I just find it bizarre you would vote for the exact person who represents everything you hate (except he's white and not a woman).
It was like the Brexit vote where disadvantaged northern towns voted for Eton educated millionaire aristocrats because they thought they had their interests at heart. I mean seriously how stupid can people get.
Anyway, I've got over it. It was a super tight election, Trump got marginally over 50% of the vote and 40% didn't even bother voting. America is just as divided as it was 4 years ago.
He'll clown around for another few years, the US will be in the same situation it was when he was voted in, if not worse, someone else will get in, we'll continue to destroy our natural world, the super rich will continue to take an ever bigger piece of the pie and they will distract with racism, victim blaming and culture wars anti-woke nonsense. Opinion will turn against him as he fails to improve anything and he'll blame anyone and everyone else like last time ... C'est la vie
he may be a clown -- but its not a super tight election as you put it -- hes actually nearly 5 million ahead in the popular vote and its going to end up nearly 310 to 240 ish - which is a huge win -- not to mention flipping the senate and increasing the house majority -- given the rules they operate under its a HUGE victory -- which says way more about America than it does Trump !
And yes i agree hes a horses ass -- but without Covid he would have won against Biden - ad even with all the biased media coverage globally and in America -- all the celebrity endorsements and all the negativity about him -- he has still won -- and maybe he will deliver.... maybe not -- but lets be honest -- the last four years were a disaster for America -- so its unlikely to be much worse!
Tariffs don’t simply mean that the price of all landed goods increase for the consumer. More often than not the CIF price remains unchanged which means the exporter meets it. When there is a degree of essentiality for a product though, that may mean the CIF price can/will be increased.
Tariffs don’t simply mean that the price of all landed goods increase for the consumer.
Japanese shoppers pay up to 35% less for Aussie beef than Aussie shoppers, despite a 35% tariff and $1 per kg in transport costs.
Efficiencies in distribution and retail caused by ultra-competitive mkts do have benefits.
Groser's "checks and balances" might be a bit optimistic
"...those working for Trump this time around share his views and are intent on upholding the extreme pledges he made as a candidate without concern for norms, traditions or law that past aides sought to maintain."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/us-election-2024/533056/us-elections-trump-s…
Not forgetting Musk.
So we have to wait 4 more years before he's sentenced and sent to jail? Hmmm. Methinks he'll be quite motivated to turn 4 years into a much longer term. Then again, he was impeached twice before (but not removed by the Senate) so I expect we'll get at least one replay of that farce. Let the soap opera resume.
(Meanwhile, of course, many laws will be sneaked through to ensure the rich become ever richer, the federal debt gets larger, more destabilizing 'deregulation' gets passed, the education system gets pillaged and the Idiocracy grows ever larger, the poor het poorer and start killing each other as they've been encouraged to do, and the revolution get closer.)
Congratulations 'Merica.
So the same as 2016 then?
The reality now is much the same as then too. The GOP is quite fractured and diverse, and many detest the Orange One. (We'll see that once the spotlight gets shone on their 'policies'.) I rate the chances of many of his 'social policies' being implemented as < 50% at a federal level, and many will get passed to states to decide, ala abortion. (Most were bluster.) At the economic level the chances of them being implemented are higher than 70% (in some form) as the rich - like always - control most of that policy. And let's be clear - the Senate & Congress are packed with the rich, or tools of the rich. (Having a 'congressman in one's pocket' is a real thing.)
Revenge mission? Unlikely on a grand scale. Unlike the mafia, politicians' children have become fair game and grudges in the USA last generations.
Trump should really have lost, but the dems put up such a poor candidate and only had four years of failure to campaign on. The relief in the USA that the dems are gone is immense. They have been thrashed and lost everything. The next campaign will be after a successful four years and Vance will be the candidate. The margin the dems lose by next time will be larger. Not sure what the media will do for the next few years. The dems can’t push for investigations or try impeachments or anything, their hands are tied. They had is coming.
Pretty much. And the 4 years before that. And the 4 years before that. And the 4 years before that. And the 4 years before that. ...
(I can do that back to when the rich figured out that owning the media is where they should be focusing their efforts and ensured laws were changed to allow them to do it.)
In which case, despite his obvious flaws, can you really blame the US people for rolling the dice on Trump as opposed to just going along with the status quo? That said, I think the main reason the Dems got hammered this election was around the way they managed covid and the repercussions to the middle and lower classes of high inflation. Much like what happened in our own recent election.
No, I think you will see similar to what is happening here, just on a much bigger scale. There are going to be massive firings of people in charge of various federal agencies (this is normal in the US, they will just be fired since there is no actual process that has to happen like here in NZ). Many of these agencies will be gutted or closed down completely. DEI will be gone. EV mandates gone. Climate change policies gone. US will again withdraw from the Paris accord. Border will be closed. Economy will recover (like last time), and people will be much happier. The four year term will end, and Trump will stand aside. Nothing that the news media bleat on about will happen. They will be completely wrong just as they have been that Trump would go to jail, or democracy will end, or Kamala is ahead in the polls. They have been wrong about everything and will continue to be just as wrong for the next four years. Vance will be elected the next president.
"The four year term will end, and Trump will stand aside."
A Tui beer moment if ever there was one.
Although he may, as once he is convicted, I expect the next President - like Gerald Ford did - will give him a full pardon.
And ... "Economy will recover (like last time), and people will be much happier. "
No. The economy didn't recover without a massive influx of public debt ... And 'the people' are clearly NOT much happier.
I dunno what you're on, but geez, I want some.
Well. 48% view his previous presidency favorably....which is high, 80% of the USA thing it it is going in the wrong direction (very high). The economy was better during the first trump term, and remember he was kneecapped by fake scandals, i.e. the Russia collusion that turned out to be nothing. The current president (and Kamala) are viewed as one of the worst administrations in history. Clearly you need to get beyond listening to TV1 News and CNN. Even I will watch TV1 news tonight. I want to see them all sobbing. First they have to accept that Kamala got a hiding, and next they have to face the fact that no-one watches TV1 any more, as they had into a restructuring, where yet more stuff will be cancelled due to no one watching for obvious reasons.
If President Biden attends the inauguration of his successor, he will be suffering absolute humiliation. On the other hand he might not even know he is there. This is where the Democrats blew it. Biden was only ever going to be good for one term. If he had had the statesmanship necessary that would have been declared and during his presidency a strong candidate identified to carry on. Harris in the run up to 2020 proved herself as unelectable, and apart from a fleeting upswing on nomination, has now confirmed that fact. The Dems learnt absolutely nothing from the hash they made of Clinton’ s run to succeed Obama. Twice Trump, despite incredible shortcomings morally and legally, has been handed two elections on a plate.
Obama gutted the dem's of talent and turned the American left into a cult of personality, they've got no talent coming through (that want to put their hand up this cycle). They made their bed they can lie in it.
GOP doing the same now with Trump, they've got no one good coming through, JD Vance will be next president. US'er pays.
The left might be a bit extreme, but you can’t deny trump has utter contempt for the truth and would quite like to be an autocrat. Big deal breakers in most non US voters book.
Where am I getting this unbiased info? Oh just people that worked with him in his first term……
Brainwashed? None of this is based on bias media reporting, it's based on hearing the man speak. Just because people like what they hear and find him charismatic doesn't mean that he isn't a convicted felon, an adjudicated rapist and a compulsive liar. These are facts, not opinion.
There have been plenty of charismatic tyrants throughout history, it's fine to support a tyrant but know what you are supporting.
Chat GPT:
The speaker starts by invoking the "motte", which is a neutral, fact-based criticism (convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, compulsive liar). This is a defensible claim because it’s rooted in legal findings or widely acknowledged personal behavior.
Then, the speaker shifts to the "bailey" (labeling the person a "tyrant"), which is a more inflammatory, subjective, and harder-to-justify argument. By pairing the "tyrant" label with more defensible facts, the speaker makes it easier for the more controversial claim to slip by without adequate scrutiny.
Good example of how ChatGPT does a bad job with logical fallacies. A motte and bailey isnt just pairing an easily defensible position with a stronger position. It is making the stronger claim, and then pretending when challenged that you are only making the weaker claim.
Thats not what the commenter was doing. It might be that they are implying the weaker claim (the defensible facts) license the stronger claim of tyranny, and you might disagree, but thats not a motte and bailey.
Agreed.. ChatGPT, "Generative AI", et al are a growing problem. A better description: Motte-and-bailey fallacy
It's disingenuous because they make a reasonable response in the first paragraph closing with "These are facts, not opinion." But then go on to label Trump a tyrant as if that just follows logically from the facts in first statement. The repeated use of the word charismatic seems like it was intentional.
Well which out of Mrs Kennedy, Mrs McKinley, Mrs Garfield and Mrs Lincoln were not made a widow then? I’m sure they would have been very happy to find that they weren’t at the time. You really do need to look before you leap. It’s not as if you can’t google each presidency and see it for yourself. Here let me help you, just google “how many presidents have been assassinated.”
"The race was extremely close" ---- Couple States to formally close - but looks like every Swing State went Red - when was the last time every swing state went one way? Senate - Red. And I cant see the house not going Red (even though the press are still saying it could maybe likely go blue) The press said it was close, just like they said Biden was all there. Just like they said Kamala was likely to win. And Just like apparently she had a lead in Iowa.
Which crypto? Take your pick. There are more all the time. Some continue to be mined. Some are pretty much mined out. The newer ones pretty much all promise a finite supply - until they don't.
You may also wish to consider that crypto is priced in USD. Crypto can be 'priced' in anything. It is often traded in USD. As are many other commodities, assets, etc. People on the street can buy, and trade, in their local currencies. Sorry, not sure what your point was with that comment.
Simply ask yourself a few questions...
What is money?...a claim on resources
Who holds the resources?...corporations but ultimately nation states
Who holds Bitcoin?...not the owners of the resources
How is the claim on resources upheld?...governance/military capability
A state independent crypto will never become 'money'....and thats before you get into issues of capped supply and interest.
We're talking about the electoral vote not the popular vote where Harris was 44 electoral votes short. However, even for the popular vote, Trump was still about 4.7million votes ahead. It was far from being a Bush vs Gore moment. Note the quote was "extremely close".
There is obviously a huge feeling of disquiet amongst ordinary people for the US elections to go the way it did. Last time Hillary Clinton called them "deplorable" and this time Joe Biden called them "garbage" so it's little wonder Trump was elected.
People are no longer free to express their opinions, or have to be very guarded with their words, but they can still get out there and vote.
You can see the same elitist Left attitude in NZ, including on this website when people who are disagreed with go straight to ad hominem abuse.
Egs
Michael Woods "rivers of filth"
Jacinda Ardern "Of course, I support the longstanding principles of democracy in this nation, but the idea that that cannot sit alongside Te Tiriti o Waitangi, I take issue with that. We are more sophisticated than that, surely, than to take such a simplistic view."
[Sophist: "In modern usage, sophism, sophist, and sophistry are used disparagingly. A sophism, or sophistry, is a fallacious argument, especially one used deliberately to deceive. A sophist is a person who reasons with clever but fallacious and deceptive arguments."]
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