Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news that, while it may be a pivotal week regarding the US election, we are staying away from that event. There are plenty of other places to get whatever slant suits you.
In the coming week, the highlight will be Friday morning's US Fed rate decision. Analysts have penciled in a -25 bps cut to 4.75%. They won't be the only central bank to review their interest rate settings this week. We will also get them from Norway, Brazil, Poland, and the UK, Plus of course Australia tomorrow where analysts expect no change at 4.35%.
Back in the US there will be important factory order data, more services PMI results, and more sentiment surveys. There's also German data upcoming. And in China, they will release CPI, PPI, trade data and services PMI results this week.
But the big weekend news was the undershoot in the US labour market. The US economy added just +12,000 jobs in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis, well below a slightly downwardly revised +223,000 in September and forecasts of +113,000. It is the lowest job growth since December 2020 on this basis, and it is this one that sets the narrative.
The 'reasons' for the low result are said to be a combination of the hurricane effects (they had two), plus the on-going Boeing strike.
Regular readers will know that we also look at the actual data, in addition to the seasonally adjusted data. Somewhat surprisingly, that rose a very strong +826,000 to 160 mln people on company payrolls, the highest ever. And that is a gain for the year of +2.1 mln jobs. (The seasonally adjusted data shows essentially the same on an annual basis.)
The broader household measure (which includes the unincorporated self-employed) continued its reporting of large shifts away from self-employment and back on to company payrolls. So the overall year-on-year employed gain isn't as large, just under +300,000.
Average weekly earnings rose +4.0% in the year to October, the best since March, and far better than current inflation. In the past four years average weekly earnings rose at the rate of +4.5%; in the prior four it was +2.7%.
Market reactions to the low headline jobs number suggests they see it as an outlier. Fears were in check, and there seems to be a build-back of the view that the Fed may cut after all at its meeting later this coming week.
The widely-watched American ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell in October from September and came in below forecasts. This survey pointed to another contraction in the manufacturing sector and the worst since July 2023. In contrast, the globally-benchmarked S&P/Markit version reported an improvement, although it too still records a contraction, just less so. Some are doing well, but some are finding it tough. (It's just normal human psychology to focus on the ones doing it tough, and ignore those that aren't.)
North in Canada, there was a factory expansion. A rise in new orders pushed their result to a 20 month high.
In China, the Caixin factory PMI turned minorly positive, pretty much confirming the official factory PMI there released earlier.
In Australia, CoreLogic reports that Sydney has now followed Melbourne and recorded a month-on-month house price drop. Nationally, prices inched ahead because of continuing gains in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. But the pace is slowing everywhere now. Affordability limits seem to have been reached.
Meanwhile, there was essentially no growth in home loan activity in September from August, and for investors those levels slipped. Both recent trends were weaker than expected, especially for first home buyers.
The internationally-benchmarked Australian factory PMI reported that their factory sector contraction eased in October but it still remains in a deep contraction.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.39% and up +2 bps from this time Saturday, up +14 bps in the past week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now positive by +17 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is also now much less inverted, now only by -7 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also much less inverted, now by -26 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.56% and unchanged. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 2.13%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is still just on 4.49% and up +4 bps for the week.
We should note that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported its Q3 results over the weekend, and that included that its 'cash' pile had grown to US$320 bln/NZ$538 bln (page 2) - most of it in short-term US Treasury Bills. It has swelled because Buffett is selling equity positions, including in Apple. (Fun fact for us; New Zealand's nominal GDP is 'only' NZ$413 bln.)
The price of gold will start today at US$2736/oz and down -US$1 from Saturday and still well off its high, and -US$9 lower than a week ago.
Oil prices are holding at US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still at US$73.50/bbl. These levels are about -US$2.50 lower than a week ago.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.6 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at 59.8 USc so little-changed. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.7, unchanged from Saturday at this time and unchanged from this time last week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,139 and down -2.3% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$66,267. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.
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64 Comments
"Productivity in America’s oil and gas extraction sector almost tripled in the 10 years ending in 2022, compared with a near-doubling in some tech-driven industries, according to federal statistics. The nation’s crude output has risen to a record 13.3 million barrels a day, 48% more than Saudi Arabia. That’s all with less than a third of the rigs and far fewer workers than were needed a decade ago."
https://rbnenergy.com/sites/default/files/styles/extra_large/public/fie…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-31/why-oil-is-outpacing…
Let us re-phrase that.
Extraction of a finite underground stock of stored solar energy, almost tripled blah blah blah.
The comparison is not apples with apples. Yes, they are using fewer workers, but human labour vs oil? Mere noise; doesn't even register.
And - this applies to the 'price of crude' quoted here, too - the whole industry is being subsidised increasingly, by a socialised debt that will never be repaid (because there isn't enough energy being supplied, to do so.
The Issues: Trump's Proposal to Lower Prices by Increasing Energy Production - FactCheck.org (HT meh)
Edit - that link is non-political, merely a precis of the energy/money dilemma the US - and by association, us all - finds itself in.
It was very good, there's a lot to like about him. To answer your question, Rogan has spoken about that. There was an open invitation to Harris/Walz and that he would perform the interview any time of the day or night to fit in with their schedules. After the Trump podcast, KH got in touch but would only agree to a 1 hour and it had to be in Washington. Rogan declined.
You don't need me to draw the conclusion for you.
The most interesting thing about Rogan is his rise to be the most influential news source in the US. Apparently his podcasts have more listeners than every single CNN program combines, and he earns more than all of them combined. The Vance podcast was so refreshing in that Rogan just lets his guests speak, there is no agenda and no panel shrieking over the top of them. He gets labeled as right-wing, but he's not. Voted democrat his entire life up until leaving Ca.
@ Silvi - Woman's rights does not mean that only woman have rights. If people are only voting based on sex alone, not effectiveness to govern, they shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the voting polls, regardless if they're a man or woman. It's the same crap trap they pulled with BLM, to suggest any other race mattered was considered racist.
If Kamela loses, it won't be because she's a woman, or men can't stand to be under the governing of a woman, or that men who don't vote for her are sexiest, that's typical leftist blackmail, & a silent admission of panic for who you feel may just win the election. Your don't get men to vote for a woman by blackmailing them. Emotional coercion may work on the lefts own, but if your trying to reach the men, they ain't buying it.
it will be because of her insufferable word salads that literally have no meaning at all, that will "be unburdened by what has been", that may ultimately cost her the election. If she doesn't know what she's even talking about unless she stays on a script, how do you expect men to vote her with confidence? Or woman for that matter.
OK, he said even that if there was anything Harris/Walz didn't want to talk about, he would leave it out. It makes sense, and clearly he left out a lot with Trump, seeing no need to talk about drug policy, his relationship to Epstein, what Trump thinks about religion or the reproductive rights of his or Rogan's daughters etc...
But since Rogan broke through the $100 Million mark and into the kind of money that keeps him safe from regular laws, he clearly lives in Republican circles. And was so happy to lead a rambling Trump through the conversation and to fill in the evil things that Democrats do when trump forgot to spell it out.
I highly doubt he would do the same with Harris. Walz might be natural enough a person to steer a friendly conversation anyway, Harris as a career politician would be a bit dull without a mass of preparation. It makes perfect sense that they couldn't justify the time to fly her down to Texas in the final, busiest week of the election. The result next week will show if they should have given it a try after all.
They can't interview the left...
It will just be a repeat of the word salads we always see. "unburdened by what has been" "I am from a middle-class family" etc.
Although Joe Rogan is a life long democrat, he will still ask reasonable questions everyone wants to hear about but questions that Harris and Walz dont want to answer. So even if they have an interview it's quite predictable what they would say.
Q: Is America better better now than 4years ago?
A: Trump is the current day Hilter.
Q: What are your plans going forward.
A: Well trump is a threat to democracy.
Who would we even want to listen to all this rubbish. Like my high school English teacher use to say "Answer the BLOODY QUESTION" it is clearly what they aren't doing.
Is the other side any better?
Q: Is America better better now than 4 years ago? Try is it better than 8 years ago? Why?
A: Trump is the current day Hitler. (Rubbish, his adviser described him as a fascist, not Hitler)
Q: What are your plans going forward.
A: Well trump is a threat to democracy. (Rubbish, Harris has detailed plenty of plans going forward. Not a lot of detail, but then Trump hasn't given any detail on the things that count too.)
Trump as he presents to external observers is an appalling candidate. That's why we struggle understand what Americans see in him. But the economic impacts of what either might do could be significant to everyone.
I can't recall ever listening to a Taylor swift song. But I got 14/15 in this quiz.
Interest.co.nz are on the right track, if for other than the right reasons.
The US dilemma is a Limits to Growth one, as indeed it is for us all. Who gets how much of what's left, is a much bigger question than who is nominal head of the most-recently dominant and now dying hegemony.
The trick is to stand back as far as possible; getting the widest perspective. Then de-clutter the picture. At which point, Matt Taibbi looks like one of the best in the business - with Rachel Donald (Planet Critical) in there too.
While you may be right one day, I don't think we are hitting any limits to growth yet. When I grew up households had one car, one TV, people were skinny because they could only afford to eat at home, no one had take away coffees, kids only got a couple of presents for their birthdays, half the world had no food to eat, etc. We are consuming significantly more of pretty much everything now than we ever have.
But that's PDK's point Jimbo. And the ecological impacts of that consumption are now very much more evident than it used to be as well, and not in a positive way. The signs of hitting those limits are there for those who choose to see.
My view is that everything is connected and there are consequences for every choice. Denial is not a solution. Neither is delay and obfuscation. Can the current level of consumption be maintain? Possibly for a short period, but the consequences will be much worse. Consider this; how much of the basic resources that are drawn from the earth recycled to limit wastage? Percentage wise I suspect it is barely into the double digits %, even though we know that it is easier to recycle most things than just extract more from the ground. Short term costs and political power dictates the denial.
Thank you, Murray.
JJ always reminds me of this post (by an astrophysics Professor who arrived at the conclusions I and others have, and flagged Uni away)
Programmed to Ignore? | Do the Math
It's an oldie but a goodie (Anyone who hasn't seen that link, or put themselves through it - it's thought-provoking (intended)).
No. I think denial is rife there. The state of America I suggest is due to the population being sick and tired of the institutional corruption in Government, especially the federal government. But those who questioned why and came close to the truth (if there were any) gained no traction in the media anywhere. So it appears that no one in the US wonders why a person such as Trump can get so much traction.
But the denial of physical limits in the US (and other places) is more likely due to the politicians throwing them crumbs and making it look like they're trying to make their lives easier, and for the most part the gullible masses are soaking it up, or calling BS when it is not enough. But those limits are still evident in that the costs of living rise despite all the politicians best efforts (not all of the rises are due to limits, some will be due to greed and corruption). Trump can't solve the problems any more than any other, but the others have failed so far. Politicians will spout any BS line (like there MUST be inflation) to save themselves and justify their position, but in the end it must all collapse.
Spot-on, Murray.
Note JJ says 'potential' = thus pre-denying that the impact is current, otherwise described as a 'cost of living crisis'.
There is a lesson here for those in the media - to not blame this or that politician. They are not the problem, but they are toast if they address the problem (think: Carter).
Yours was the post of the day - hard to see it bested ...
“The signs of hitting those limits are there for those who choose to see.” Basic undeniable truth. The problem though is the nations of the world are run by governments that are run by politicians. The first priority of any politician is power and consequently, their election and re-election. Undoubtedly worldwide there are numerous numbers of politicians intelligent enough to recognise the truth of the matter but I would wager that only a very small minority of them would stake their career on it. It does happen. For instance prior to the 2017 NZ election two members of the Greens, staunch and dedicated environmentalists, resigned over the direction of the party and revelations concerning one of the co-leaders. The problem with democracy is that while various nations may manage it individually, for better or worse or not at all, it does not demand either the respect or the discipline internationally. The United Nations is some sort of quasi arrangement to this purpose but when the crunch comes it is featureless going on toothless.
Yes. Luxon on RNZ this morning lamenting on the worldwide state of democracy that is getting much worse. Clearly he is not a 'professional politician' per se. But he is correct. As those limits become more pronounced more will attempt to seize and hold power to their own benefit at the cost of the people.
NZs future will be in the balance too, as outsiders look at what we have (whatever they fancy) with greedy eyes. Our ability to defend ourselves will become more important.
Democracy getting much worse? Didn't Luxinda hear about Kemi?
"As the world holds its breath waiting to see if Trump or Harris wins the White House, let us take heart from the fact that a genuine free-thinker has taken the oppositional reins in Britain."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/02/finally-a-leader-whos-willing-…
Tell me something, JJ (assuming you were serious)
You have a bank account of $1,000.
You spend $12 per day on coffee and doughnuts.
Are you suggesting that your expanding waistline is disproving the $12-each-time account reduction?
Illogical. Put yourself through that link I provided upthread, please, and report back? I'm pretty certain I will win my bet with myself...
Do you have any evidence of the pie shrinking? GDP per capita has continued to increase, people are consuming more and more: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US-NZ-1W
Probably at some stage we will hit the limits, but I don't think we are there yet.
The crude oil price is the same as it was in 1974: https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
Obviously we are depleting some finite resources, so yes the pie is getting smaller in that regard. But it is quite possible (probable IMO) that the pie is so large that it really doesn't matter, by the time we get close to running out we will have other options. I'm sure we have depleted other resources in the past that seemed like a big deal at the time but we just moved on to something else.
I am more concerned about the CO2 we are emitting; I think it would be great if we were really running out of fossil fuel. I just don't think the stats back that up.
'But it is quite possible (probable IMO) that the pie is so large that it really doesn't matter, by the time we get close to running out we will have other options. I'm sure we have depleted other resources in the past that seemed like a big deal at the time but we just moved on to something else.'
Hopeless.
Sorry, but totally illogical. And suggests you will avoid that link at all costs (others avoid fiercely too, not just you).
Jimbo - The pie is very large - which is very annoying for the Malthusian and peak oil tragics.
“Fundamentally, in light-water reactors, out of the uranium we dig out of the ground, we use a half a percent of the energy that’s in the uranium that’s dug out of the ground,” Gehin told CNBC in a phone interview. “You can get a large fraction of that energy if you were to recycle the fuel through fast reactors. ...There is enough energy in the nuclear waste in the United States to power the entire country for 100 years, and doing so could help solve the thorny and politically fraught problem of managing spent nuclear waste.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/nuclear-waste-us-could-power-the-us-for…
• Even at the price of gold of $US14,000/kg, with fast reactors
the contribution of the cost of uranium to the price of electricity
is only US$0.003/kWh.
• At the price of gold, very low-grade uranium ores become
economically viable, and the supply for all practical purposes
becomes virtually inexhaustible.
https://cns-snc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CNS_Vol27No2_FINAL.pdf
"If prices went above
$130 per kg, phosphate deposits that contain uranium at low concentra-
tions would become economic to mine. Recovery of uranium from phosp-
hates is perfectly possible, and was done in America and Belgium before
1998.
Of course its not just food. Personally I can't think of a better measure of this than GDP per capita: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US-NZ-1W
Sorry I don't go with numbers, take a look at the state of the world. Even the Americans are pissed because their standard of living is dropping and they are starting to grasp at straws thinking that the outcome of this election is going to make a difference. Newsflash, its going to be the same shit just a different day for those at the bottom of the pile and that pile is growing.
@ Jimbo - It's not up to "the rich" to share their pie, most particularly to someone who can't be bothered getting out of their chair to take a piece for themselves. What ever your definition of "rich" is.
For the most of us you get out of life what you make of it, not by how much is given to you by "the rich". It's going to be a long life if your waiting for your constant handouts from "the rich". If you want that pie Jimbo, how you gonna get it? Screeching constantly "the rich have more pie than me, it's not fair, you have to do something about it", or you gonna take some personal accountability, & figure out how to get the pie on your own, without "the riches" help? Personally I think it's much more self satisfying to have achieved the pie on one's own merits, rather than as a handout just to silence the serial complainers.
I didn't realize that "a bunch of whinging babies" applied to more than just an age demographic. It's been a rather sobering moment for me experiencing people my parents age & older whinging constantly. I'd say grow up, but your likely much older than me.
Yep, it's been dry here in Napier for a while now with very little meaningful rainfall. A lot of lawns look more like you'd expect in mid to late December than early November with many browning off. I note there have been comments that quite a lot of fruits will be ready for harvest earlier than usual this year. Local cherries usually become available in late-November / early December - different growers at different times - but one has already announced their cherries will be ready at the end of this week....which looks like it will coincide with the Mercury getting awfully close to 30 degrees Celsius.
@ Nightstalker - Not quite so sure you've grasped the idea of fascism.
JD advocates for freedom of speech, the banning of killing millions of babies & the removal of chemical castration on minors. This is about as far from fascism as one can get.
Harris on the other hand fits the definition nicely. Dictators try to have their political opponents thrown in jail, suppress free speech to replace it instead with approved government propoganda. We experienced some of this over the last 6 years, so it's surprising you've been able to tell the difference between the two different governing styles.
Ahh yes, the democrats and their 'killing of millions of babies' policy.
From the guy with a one month old account who is now piling in on every semi political post with pro JD Vance rhetoric.
JD Vance's most notable characteristics seems to be being Peter Theil's protege, and being statistically the most unpopular VP nominee by a gigantic margin.
And he certainly does not have much to do with today's Breakfast Briefing.
Maybe we also need a restriction on commenting from new accounts to try an keep things on the level for the next few days?
We have plenty of regulars of our own engaging in the same arguments to fill up the comment streams, without US political partisans adding propaganda to the mix also.
@ agnostium - Think ya cracked the code have ya.
Who is this guy that dears to confront you & your ideas. Lefties aren't used to being confronted, they are aided by cancel culture, so never really experience such. Bit of a shock for you eh. Got ya all stumped hasn't it agnostium lol. Rest assured, I deconstruct the insane ideology, not the person. You are safe. Just relax, breath.
Sorry to dissapoint, but I am not a re occurring member that's been banned for my use of common sense before. Though I do appreciate that there has clearly been a few of us here before. Maybe the logic will eventually sink in.
But you do seem visibly shaken & triggered by a difference in opinion though. Hence the wishful banned statement. For lefties, the thought of being banned is the ultimate. For noone can challenge them on their idiocratic ideology, as the minute they're confronted by basic common sense, their entire argument falls apart.
By the sounds of it, a little challenge here & there could actually do you some good. Man up. Too much woke makes a man frail. You gotta be strong agnostium, you gotta be a provider, not a complainer. Can't leave complaints or your interest.co history to your family when you finally pass on. "Letsdothis" remember?
@ armin - Allow me to address a few of your valid points before you scream for cancel culture to save you from someone you dissagree with:
"From the guy with a one month old account who is now piling in on every semi political post with pro JD Vance rhetoric."
This is the 1st post I've ever mentioned JDs name, anywhere on this site. I advocate for basic common sense, so if JDs & my viewpoints are similarly shared, that gives you an indication he's on the right track.
As for rhetoric? It's not rhetoric armin, as I said it's just basic common sense. If common sense triggers you armin, thats on you. Your triggers are your responsibility. It isnt the worlds obligation to tip toe around you.
"JD Vance's most notable characteristics seems to be being Peter Theil's protege, and being statistically the most unpopular VP nominee by a gigantic margin."
& that somehow beats Watlz in unpopular VP? A 60yo man, who plays Playstation, talks in a boring monotone voice & is funding a programme in Minnisota that brings children out into the woods to talk about sexuality. But don't worry, we're assured that there's nothing weird about it at all.
"And he certainly does not have much to do with today's Breakfast Briefing."
Well strike me down, the wah your going on about him, I would've thought JD was a special celebrity guest on today's Breakfast Briefing. I mentioned him but once, & that was enough to trigger you into a full blown melt down.
"Maybe we also need a restriction on commenting from new accounts..."
Why? Because you disagree? You've been duped armin. Youve been lead to believe that a difference in opinion is now hate speech. So it's only natural of course that when you encounter an opposing view, you scream to have it "restricted", as it doesn't follow or agree with your narrative, & you have no idea how to combat a difference in opinion except attempt to cancel it to avoid embarrassment. My god, what do they teach at school these days. Just scream out conspiracy theorist everytime someone has an opposing view, & cancel or as you so nicely put "restrict".
"...to try an keep things on the level for the next few days?"
What are you so worried about armin? That I may expose something detrimental to the Harris/Walz campaign that would have people concerned? Though I appreciate you feel I that much political sway, or rather the principles of basic common sense, you may rest assured that what ever happens tomorrow regarding the election has nothing at all to do with me.
Thanks for humoring me though. You can see the absolute meltdown & panic in the leftist democrats & their decieved voterbase. Their entire ideology built on word salads, confusion, deception & control is at stake. This will be a very interesting election what ever way it goes!
May the best party win!
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