Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news China is still pulling its policy levers, but it remains uncertain consumers are responding in the way they need.
US durable goods orders slipped slightly in September from August, but by less than analysts had expected. But that takes them -2.9% lower than a year ago. Capital goods orders retreated -6.5% year-on-year, but non-defense capital goods orders other than aircraft were higher (although only by +0.6%).
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised up in October from their earlier 'flash' result, marking a third consecutive month of rises and reaching the highest level in six months. And this same survey found little concern about future inflation, with expectations at 2.7% hitting its lowest level in almost four years.
In Canada, retail sales rose again in August mainly on the back of more optimistic car buying. While the overall gain is still low, it is a third month in a row they have reported a year-on-year rise.
In China, officials are getting desperate about the falling birth rate, actively and repeatedly calling women with one question: “Are you pregnant yet?” Apparently they don't get a good response from these calls.
The People’s Bank of China injected a total of ¥700 bln into financial institutions via a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) on Friday at an unchanged rate of 2.0%.
Foreign direct investment into China for the year to September slumped -30% from the previous year although on the year-to-date basis they favour that was a slight easing from the -31.5% fall in August. For the month of September, the inflow was +NZ$14.2 bln and that is very much lower than the +NZ$540 bln that flowed in in September 2023. But at lease it is positive.
Leading Chinese economist Zhang Yu has raised the alarm over falling consumption in the Chinese domestic economy. Consumption is under pressure even though Beijing seems to be making big efforts to boost it. In Q3-2024, retail growth came in at just +2.5%, while in the mega-cities of Beijing and Shanghai it turned negative in the months of July and August. He points out that domestic consumption's economic contribution ratio dropped to 49.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, as compared to 60.5% for the first half. That is a very rapid shift. Export have held their growth level up so far, but that isn't continuing. The shrivelling consumption puts China's economy in peril and Beijing seems to have no answers so far. They have used half of their support measures already. Hopefully the next half will work better.
Bloomberg is reporting that defaults in an opaque corner of China’s local debt market have surged to a record high, ensnaring investors who’d assumed the securities had an implicit guarantee from the state. Failures of so-called non-standard products, which are fixed-income investments that aren’t publicly traded, surged to record levels. While there is no official tally of the size of the sector, analysts estimate it to be around NZ$1.3 tln. It is mainly small investors being caught by this.
China's more traditional local government debt is Beijing guaranteed. It has risen very fast, making up for the dive in local authority land sales. And they are about to release NZ$1.4 tln more of it. But the reputation damage from the bad bits will cause it to pay more than it otherwise would have.
In Russia, their central bank raised its key policy rate by +200% to 21% as their war economy distorts activity sharply. A +100 bps rise was expected, so this is a surprise. Markets reacted badly with the ruble falling and equity prices there retreating sharply.
In Australia, today is election day in the state of Queensland. They have had a Labor Government for 23 of the past 26 years, and earlier a change to a Liberal/National Party Coalition Government was widely expected, maybe by a landslide. But oddly, after some awful campaigning by the challengers (channeling Abbott/Credlin), and some effective campaigning by the incumbents, it is neck-in-neck at the finish. We will know the result tomorrow.
In New Zealand we are hearing that the Government has signed off on allowing a private contractor to issue building consents nationally, do inspections, and issue code compliance certificates. Councils won't lose their current powers, but will now have to compete with this private alternative. (The company involved has been doing subcontracting work in this area for Councils for some time.) It will be major change for not only the residential construction industry, but Councils as well. Official notification of the change is expected next week. To date, only Kainga Ora has had these independent rights.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.25% and up +6 bps from this time yesterday but down -14 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is positive, at +14 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is still inverted by -25 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is little-changed at -53 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.46% and down -4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.16% and up +1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is just under 4.45%, down -7 bps from yesterday but little net change for the week.
Wall Street is little-changed today with the S&P500 barely higher in Friday trade as early session gains leak away. It is down -0.8% for the week. Overnight, European markets were also just marginally changed, mostly down a small tick or so. Tokyo ended yesterday down -0.6% to end its week -2.7% lower. Hong Kong was up +0.5% on Friday but down -0.7% for the week. Shanghai rose +0.6% on Friday to be +0.7% higher for the week. Singapore fell -0.3%. The ASX200 ended its Friday session up a minor +0.1% but down -0.9% for the week. And the NZX50 was down -0.3% on Friday in changeable trade for a weekly retreat of -0.4%.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week having moved more cautious and now only just in the 'greed' range. Overall markets are still comfortable with their risk appetite and have been for more than a month now. But doubts krept in today.
The price of gold will start today at US$2745/oz and up +US$13 from yesterday. That is +US$28 higher than a week ago. In between it hit an all-time record high of US$2758/oz.
Oil prices are +US$1.50 higher at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$76/bbl. These levels atr up +US$2 for the week.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.8 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. That is down -90 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 55.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.7, and down -20 bps from yesterday at this time, down -50 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,267 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at US$68,847 so that is a -2.9% fall since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.1%.
Remember, this is the long Labour Day weekend holiday. The Breakfast Briefing will return on Tuesday.
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118 Comments
"a private contractor to issue building consents nationally"
The Councils should be happy with that. That means someone else gets sued now if there is a failure of some sort that the inspection fails to pick up, and not The Council - as long as the private company is still solvent, of course.
Unless they have the requisite knowledge I would urge any purchaser of a new build to engage the services of a professional building inspection outfit that can oversee all stages of the build and who provide a guarantee for their performance. Don’t rely on an architect or such as Master Builders. Former will blame the builder and vice versa and the latter is little more than a chums club.
This assumes the professional building inspector is knowledgeable in both design and construction. I split a residential house into two areas, design and construction. If the design is incorrect and you build to it you can end up have a building constructed well but not up to standard. Conversely you can have a correct design to the relevant standards but not constructed in accordance with them. if I look at the drawings of my architect designed house and constructed in '77 there are about 4 drawings in total. A single story house today will have about 15-20 drawings. Currently the Council is meant to vet the simple aspects of the design and in certain sections of design will require a professional engineer to sign off these design areas. The Council do not employ geotechnical engineers and other specialist engineers and neither should they have to. Once the Council have approved the drawings ie the design, the council inspections are to ensure they are built to the correct design.
Certainly for those who know little to nothing about house design and construction, probably about 90-95% of those wishing to have a house built, your suggestion is a brace to the Councils belt.
Surely the council will remain with any liability, far easier to lump it on rate payers than private entities be responsible.
Personally I have always thought councils/ratepayers being responsible was a complete cop out but privatise the profits socialise the loses is the rules.
Good morning bw, I would like to comment about your post of yesterday, about your daughter making "a panicked decision using her KuwiSaver $ to buy a house in January 2022" and having lost equity since. You said she's considering selling now as things are tough. I'm sorry to hear this, but please keep a calm head, selling now would only lock in her paper losses. She didn't buy the house with a view to sell two years later. We are near the bottom of the downcycle, in 5, 10, 20 years it won't matter at all what her house was worth in 2024, believe me. Keep calm and stick to the decision she made when she bought her house, she'll fine!
I hope you believe in the sincerity of my comment.
"A mortgagee sale happens when, as a result of the mortgagor not meeting their obligations under the terms of the mortgage, usually in not meeting their mortgage repayments, the mortgagee exercises its power of sale. The property is sold, after completing a legal process, to recover its debt."
Sorry to hear that bw. Likewise, please believe the sincerity of my comment.
A counter view to Yvil's ... "Why are we likely to continue with an investment even if it would be rational to give it up?" ... and Sunk Cost.
I expect my view will provoke outrage among the property obsessed.
Frankly, I don't care what they think. "You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away, ..." Them's that don't know - will most likely never know. If pub-economics is good enough for them, live long and prosper.
Are you an accountant, Yvil?
Are you a good accountant, Yvil?
Are you a specialist in cost & management accountancy, Yvil? No?
Are you authorized to provide financial advice, Yvil?
Yes? How much do people pay for your advice?
So tell me, what makes you claim your advice is any better than mine? And take note: Your advice is highly specific, unlike mine.
The best advice can only be given by an expert in such matters after a full work-up of all the financial issues looking forward at least 5 years.
Anyone taking advice from a guy with a green tick on a public forum needs their head read.
If I'd have followed your advice, I'd have lost shitloads over the years.
But if a financial proposition sucks arse, you might have to come to a realization.
It really depends what someone's prepared to do to get out of a hole, and whether it's worth digging.
I'm no accountant, but it's not hard to determine if something stacks up or not.
The best advice can only be given by an expert in such matters after a full work-up of all the financial issues looking forward at least 5 years.
Haha, the old 5 year plan. Never had one that was worth re-reading after about 12 months.
"Not if you are emotionally invested...."
That's the point right there Baywatch. It's clear from his posts, that BW and his daughter are emotionally stressed. It's also understandable that they are. Unfortunately, making financial decisions under emotional stress is not good. And that's precisely what I'm trying to convey to BW and his daughter when I say, try to remain calm and stay on course. I have a saying:
Those who make logical financial decisions, make money from those who make emotional financial decisions.
That is NOT what you said. Your unsolicited advice was very specific. I've highlighted the specific bits you are trying to dodge.
I'm sorry to hear this, but please keep a calm head, selling now would only lock in her paper losses. She didn't buy the house with a view to sell two years later. We are near the bottom of the downcycle, in 5, 10, 20 years it won't matter at all what her house was worth in 2024, believe me. Keep calm and stick to the decision she made when she bought her house, she'll fine!
One notes your most recent comment now aligns with mine where I wrote:
The best advice can only be given by an expert in such matters after a full work-up of all the financial issues looking forward at least 5 years.
I also have a saying, Yvil. One you'd perhaps like to consider?
When you're in a hole, it's best to stop digging it deeper.
I very much doubt China will be able to reverse the population growth trend. The Germans in the 1930s tried to improve birth rates with very favourable housing policies for young couples and extreme assistance for women having children out of wedlock but it wasn't very successful even back then.
The West's focus on immigration to achieve this has been largely successful. People complain about this but it was probably the only solution that was feasible.
only solution that was feasible
Feasible for what? To lock in high house prices and rents for your properties? Lock in higher trade deficits as we import more than we export? Lock in higher unemployment for youth as recent arrivals take starter jobs that they used to do?
Stuff long-term shelter security and you do family formation no favours. Children are a long-term thing, short term incentives that can disappear at the stroke of a pen do little to shift the dial (and quite logically so).
Yup, feasible without actually solving any of the socioeconomic issues that are contributing to a rapidly dropping birth rate. Those in-charge have perverse incentives to keep the system broken and the young broke, so there is going to be a steady decline going forward.
Also, let's ignore the reality that immigration in Europe has come with its own problems, particularly the major cultural clashes between the natives and immigrants. In NZ, the problems have been around the authoritiesoutsourcing migration decisions to vested interests who want to bring in unskilled, vulnerable migrants to exploit.
Nothing to see here!
I think the Chinese officials are asking the wrong question. With the youth talking of lying flat, garbage time and the last generation perhaps officials should ask why the youth are talking this way. I suspect they won't ask this question because they won't like the answer they receive. Additionally ideology would prevent them from changing in response to the answer. Ideology makes them blind.
Sounds like a good business model, collect fees, collect fees, collect fees, pay wages and dividends, pay wages and dividends, pay wages and dividends. Oh, we made some mistakes that will cost a lot to remedy, never mind - the liquidator is only a phone call away.
Not just China with birth rate issues. It is worse at home and closer to home. We were predicted to have a population bomb and run out of energy instead we ran out of babies and continue to produce record amounts of coal, oil and gas.
"Once we hit ultra-low fertility like say, for example, countries in our region, like South Korea, there is generally no return," Dr Allen said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-17/australia-birth-rate-hits-rock-b…
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/lowest-natural-increase-in-80-years/
Highly conscious beings intuitively know that anti-natalism will end human suffering.
Human suffering ceases when the individual stops their mind from either running to or from things.
Natalism wouldn't really impact that. On one hand, if you didn't have offspring that'd give you one less thing to be concerned about, but on the other hand if you're doing parenting properly that can be a short sharp lesson that it's not all about you.
Not in a physical sense.
What we take for ourselves to be us, is really just a waking dream. Just hopping from one brain fart to the next. Planning, remembering, so much time spent anywhere but where you are.
So if you can switch that off, a part of you ceases to exist - the part you think is you, distinct from everyone and everything else.
Children, cats, dogs or an OLED tv might be distraction, but you are your ultimate distraction. That's preventing actual heightened conscious experience, and an end of suffering.
Easier said than done though.
Well fewer people is certainly better for our planet, but our whole economy relies upon growth to function. Less people means no growth, it actually means contraction. The consequences are widespread and hard to fully understand. Oversupply of everything seems a given (houses, goods, services etc…). This leads to price crashes of everything, but the immense debt remains. A scenario which would bankrupt people, companies and governments. Still, maybe it's the bitter pill humanity will have to accept one day.
Love Amsterdam. Been in and out often. For one 5 month stint, I lived above a coffee house. Got to go back for a 2 weeks bit of work early next year.
Btw ... Alcohol is not a psychedelic. It is however an extremely versatile renewable fuel that derives its energy from the sun and can be produced from plants that will grow where little else will. I expect PDK got the reference although I'm sure he'll disagree with it's potential.
You're a terrible troll, btw.
If there were price crashes in everything (which could be a good thing as humans might learn something about real values), the debt would have to be reset too. Maybe we would "grow" in better ways.
People, companies and government would be bankrupt? How so? It's like all those times everyone gets upset that billions of $$ of wealth has been lost from a computer screen. Yet if you open your eyes, the planet, the people, the infrastructure, ie real wealth, is still there.
We've got thousands of years of history that tells us money dealers, debt servitude, and allowing banks to rule may not be the best model.
Ah but we worked on intellect and knowledge. By working out how to measure aspects of reality, we fooled ourselves to think that would mean we would somehow control it. Such hubris.
So we have this fairly linear approach to problem solving and viewing things that ignores the fact everything is interlinked, in such a way that's beyond control.
Check out the charts in this FT article to see how lousy the UN is at predicting population.
“...According to Fernández-Villaverde’s calculations, the combined impact of the yawning misses for emerging market countries and smaller overestimates for wealthy western nations puts the true global population trajectory on the UN’s “low fertility” pathway. That would mean a peak at around 9bn in 2054, 30 years earlier than in the headline forecast.…But, one after another, the projections keep missing, repeatedly underestimating the pace and duration of falls in birth rates. To give one example, just five years ago the UN estimated that there would be around 350,000 births in South Korea in 2023. There were actually 230,000, more than a third fewer.
…Until recently, ultra-low and rapidly falling birth rates were primarily a concern for rich countries, especially those in east Asia. But many still-ascendant countries now have lower fertility rates than much wealthier ones. Last year, Mexico’s birth rate fell below that of the US for the first time
.…Last year in Colombia there were 510,000 births, a 22 per cent decline over five years, and around 30 per cent lower than even the UN’s nowcast for that same year. From high-income Chile to emerging Guatemala it’s a similar story, and this issue is far from specific to the UN data, whose projections are generally closer than those of the IHME and IIASA.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3862923c-f7bd-42a8-a9ea-06ebf754bf14
Agree Profile - this issue is going to become, I believe, the biggest driver of change/angst in the next few decades - over shadowing Climate change, debt etc as it will dictate how countries can act and survive - demand for goods, servicing older populations, ability to defend or fight wars etc - we have only had rising population since the 1700s and need to go way back to the Plague etc to see the effect of population reductions.
What happens as Russia and China have plummeting populations? my guess is military actions will be the last thing they can afford to undertake. Just keeping the countries functioning, and compliant will be a massive challenge - South Korea is facing a massive shortage of Soldiers now.
I can see a lot of the world being abandoned to rewild while other parts become very intensified - the fight for young immigrants has only just started.
the fight for young immigrants has only just started
Likely true at this point. But to do what exactly? Uphold asset prices that we've sent to the moon with debt creation? Do the jobs you want done for a price that doesn't pay enough to house any children they have? And when they get old?
If the objective is simply to share everything more equally across the planet, then fine, but be honest about what that will mean for those already here in advance.
JL - timelines.
There are 8 billion of us here - 6-7 billion too many. There was 1 billion here in 1800, we ADDED 1 billion in just the last 11 years. We're burning our way through the stored solar energy (coal, oil, gas and wood) faster than even the latter can replenish.
Overshoot collapses, because it devours its resource-base in the overshot phase. Yes, some areas will re-grow, but much will remain denuded (southern Iraq is still infertile and saline, from the Sumerians efforts, and that was a while ago.
As to fighting for immigrants; actually, beyond the (inevitable) breakdown, less people is still better. Carrying-capacity ex fossil input, is surprisingly low.
I don’t necessarily disagree with that PDK but the humans here and coming will all want to try and maintain/improve their lifestyle and have their parents cared for. The reality of resource shortage or climate changes will simply drive upset and angst. I don’t trust humans as a whole to react with logic or pragmatism using science. Covid has well demonstrated that again and repeats what has happened over many civilisations. Nasty business being poor and fending for oneself. Envy is a dangerous thing.
Tom Murphy has pulled apart the UN predictions too https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/06/peak-population-video/?origin=serp_auto
Whether it's good or bad news depends on your point of view I guess
The rate of change is the issue. Ok for people rant from their their high horses about population bombs, peak oil, climate change, prediction du jour, but having two workers for every geriatric will hit home fast when you need a strong able bodied person for aged nursing or to put out your burning apartment.
If Fernández-Villaverde’s calculations are correct, peak in 2054, it puts us firmly in to SSP1/SSP2 territory and all the scary climate projections are out the window. Already there are not enough births for SSP5, SSP4 and SSP3 climate scenarios, yet we still have NZ local councils and using SSP5 for their planning.
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0959378014001095-gr1.jpg
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001095
I wonder if the creditors of the last bike adventure (Failed company of MP Darleen Tana's husband owes more than $400K - liquidator | RNZ News) will receive an equity stake in the new venture (Darleen Tana's husband sets up new e-bike business) in lieu of not being paid.
But I'm sure we are different.
"Alarm bells are ringing for homeowners as mortgage debt spirals out of control..... one in three homeowners believe they borrowed too much on their home loan—up from 21 per cent last year. This suggests that over a million Australian homeowners are now struggling with the weight of their mortgage. What’s more concerning is that 1 in 5 home-owners admit they are now finding it difficult to keep up with repayments. Another 15 per cent acknowledge they overpaid for their property, resulting in a larger loan to cover the cost."
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/major-home-loan-warning-as-concerning…
Having trouble finding the older article with users available interest rates through their apps, so can't be 100% sure but... I could have sworn back then the ANZ app had 1yr at 5.6?
Is someone able to confirm, because if true then they've been raising rates since then as this morning it's sitting at 5.89 which would be quite the story in the current interest rate cutting environment.
And a lot of people will have fallen for 'fix for 6 months and watch mortgage rates keep falling before your eyes!' Also known as "don't touch the long term rates with a bargepole". There are any number of Risks attached to the cost of Debt; interest rates. And 'where the OCR goes' might just be the least of them.
eg "US says it is not participating in Israeli strikes against Iran" - (yet)
Maybe not. But it's not me that you have to worry about. It's the Money Markets/Share Markets. Because if they get the wobbles, and selling sets in, as has happened many times before, the losses will mean that liquidity will have to be raised. And that will mean not only just selling bonds and stocks, but property - both commercial, and residential alike.
And if, as the above posters suggest, rates are 'easing' upwards, even TA knows what can happen:
"If interest rates were not falling and providing some cash flow relief, it is likely that the coming year (2025) would have seen quite a number of landlords looking to offload their properties. "
The whole thing is a ponzi
Here's the ponzi
The "investment" we all give, is twice as much (or more) of our waking hours in the pursuit of commerce, than the sort of environment conducive to being a good human. We often do this away from our families, and having to integrate into a hierarchical or competitive environment - rather than one based on mutual collaboration with shared outcomes.
In return, we are promised prosperity. A seemless stream of new doodads, soon to be discarded due to obsolesence, "fashion", or because it's made so cheaply it breaks. Health advancements (if you can access it), a safe place to live (if you can afford it).
But it's dog eat dog and most of the goodies are already owned. Real leaders eat last, but our leaders dine and we get the scant leftovers.
That's the ponzi. Most of us are being short changed of the valuable time we have, and with those most important to us.
Life only works well when shared. If people aren't going to have kids, that's fine, but they're also going to have to find a way without the bond of blood to share the burden if there is to be a true alternative.
We could do so much, if we got out of our own way.
If that dysfunctionality was typical healthy human behaviour then we wouldn't exist.
We're supposed to be raised in larger communities by more than 1 or 2 adults. Anxiety and depression, not really a feature of shared existence. Some cultures and tribes can't even reconcile our notion of self loathing.
We are all very connected, but we struggle empathizing with larger groups.
Gotcha. But based on what you say about DGM and worse case scenarios, it would make sense that you would be highly allocated to assets with outsized potential for capital appreciation and / or profits / returns. If you aren't doing that, you are just as much the DGM as any other.
It is kinda weird how people think if you oppose some other view, you have to belong to some sort of community club.
Don't read the Herald
Don't know who Ashley Church is
Never seen the "Facebook property investors" chat
Don't go anywhere with a water cooler
Hate Hosko
I mainly use it in reference to schadenfreude seekers.
Like, I guess I'm not sad if someone who's just gambling and not adding much comes a gutser, but I also know that doesn't happen in a vacuum. Life seems to be getting tougher for others at the same time, is the way of things.
I mainly use it in reference to schadenfreude seekers.
Now he's quite special, but Michael Burry expertly identified bet against the previous GFC US housing Ponzi and put all his chips on the table. On thing you can say about Burry is that he didn't delight in the misery of others. And see some similarities in with what Druckenmiller is doing betting against USDT. Another who doesn't delight in the misery of others.
But both these two would be labelled DGMers in lil ol' Aotearoa because of how they see things.
But Henry Hendry is known for being critical of mainstream economic policies. His views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, and global economic dynamics reflect a deep skepticism of conventional wisdom. For ex, he has argued that we are currently experiencing a prolonged economic depression.
So if that doesn't qualify as DGM, I don't really know what is. And you're contradicting yourself.
There's a difference between critique and skepticism, and actively seeking or hoping for some sort of carnage.
For instance, I feel at least 2 of the magnificent seven are in for a day of reckoning, because the fundamentals are shot to hell, and I don't see the future growth or earnings to support the value. That doesn't mean I actively want it to happen.
I tend to view Bury as being a little more data driven. Which is fine, for identifying potential trades, but data alone is fairly arid. Hendry contextualizes on wider terms. Plus I guess I like how he went from suit wearing super serious type to a bit of a larrikin.
"I tend to view Bury as being a little more data driven. Which is fine, for identifying potential trades, but data alone is fairly arid."
We know. Folksie wisdom, unfocused and ambiguous drivel, with a hefty dollop of pub-economics is your preferred medium.
btw, Bury is 100% data driven. But like Buffet likes to say, he knows that some things will happen, just not when.
We know. Folksie wisdom, unfocused and ambiguous drivel, with a hefty dollop of pub-economics is your preferred medium.
You keep saying folksie wisdom like it's a bad thing.
We get fixated on the numbers, but not what's behind them. I want to understand what's going on, to make personal decisions in my commercial activity. I'm not interested in the sorts of short term trading that Bury is involved in.
Everyone here clearly has different imperatives, so aren't all going to appreciate varying sources in the same way. So far, my approach has been largely very fruitful, both in my pocket, and my lived experience.
I'm not interested in the sorts of short term trading that Bury is involved in.
You don't have the chops to do what Burry does P. Regardless, he's not a day trader. As of mid-2024, Burry's investments in Chinese stocks have grown dramatically. Reports indicate that nearly 50% of Scion Asset Management's portfolio is now invested in Chinese tech giants, with Alibaba (BABA) being the largest holding at approximately 21% of his portfolio. Other significant investments include JD.com (JD) and Baidu (BIDU), each representing around 12% of his total assets.
You don't have the chops to do what Burry does P.
No, and I'm not pretending to, nor have the inclination.
Regardless, he's not a day trader
No, but his trade is vastly different to mine. Not that he's an overly public person anyway, but not much of what can be gleamed from him is actionable for me, nor gives much insight into wider trends.
Not that he's an overly public person. Anyway, but not much of what can be gleamed from him is actionable for me, nor gives much insight into wider trends.
Burry's strategy is well analysed for public consumption. His portfolio can also be tracked.
https://tickertracker.io/portfolios/michael-burry
https://www.michael-burry.com/think-and-invest-like-michael-burry/
Israel strikes Iran:
Well, they are trying to.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/10/26/735983/%E2%80%98Defense-activi…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/10/25/live-israel-accused-…
Several explosions have been reported around Tehran. Air defence systems activated in the capital as Iranian media report none of the military sites belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been hit.
Well, the first thing to figure out is if you take Israeli press release at fact or not.
Iran have "over 3000 ballistic missiles" (that's a low ball estimate in from 2023 by the US) excluding cruise missiles and drones and, even if these could reliably be intercepted, Israel is going to run out interceptors long before Iran runs out of missiles.
Iran could destroy every airport, radar site, power plant and rest of Israeli heavy industry in a few days and send them back to stone age but they might get nuked for it.
Their weapons lack the precision though, many of them are as accurate long distance as throwing a rock with a blindfold.
Russia's long range strike ability is more capable than Iran's. Ukraine's interceptor ability, worse than Israel's. Russia has fired over 12,000 munitions at Ukraine, for negligible effect on Ukraine's ability to function.
Watched 2/3 so far. At the very least I don't think it will do him any harm. Not a fan, but he comes across not as unhinged as the media normally makes out ... more like the 'endearing but prone to waffle' grandad.
This long form conversation is actually much better than debates. It's a shame Harris has elected not to do it as it would make a great comparison, and also a shame we don't seem to have something like Rogan here in New Zealand.
On a side note, never thought I'd actually watch Joe Rogan and Donald Trump on a podcast talking about the pros and cons of 15 vs 12 round title boxing fights. We live in interesting times.
The Buffett Indicator is Warren Buffett's preferred metric for evaluating overall stock market valuation. The Buffett Indicator, aka, Buffett Index, or Buffett Ratio, is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP.
This ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile, but GDP tends to be more predictable. The current ratio of 209% is approximately 67.57% (or about 2.2 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is 'Strongly Overvalued' relative to GDP.
You could say it's at nosebleed levels. And long term interest rates are not low.
The 60/40 portfolio has been blindly bought into since 1975. People never challenge this mainly because they have no interest and believe in things like Kiwisaver.
This is troubling.
Yup. But let's not forget many US stocks are multi-nationals so using US GDP alone isn't the measure it would have been some years ago. Many US listed stocks have huge asset holdings held outside the US that isn't repatriated due to US tax rules. Apple springs to mind (note sure if they still do?)
Many would argue that far greater access to stock markets & financial information, thanks to internet tech, have pushed stocks closer to 'true value' in the past 20 years. While that view certainly explains some, but not in any way all, of what we're seeing.
Methinks most can be explained by the first paragraph and perhaps that 'true value' has shifted to 'future expected value', with the 'future', that used to be 12-24 months is now 5 years or more. In any event, times are about right for a correction. But when - that is the question.
Many US listed stocks have huge asset holdings held outside the US that isn't repatriated due to US tax rules. Apple springs to mind (note sure if they still do?)
Buffet invested in the Japanese trading companies partly because they have assets all over the world. These stocks have been neglected to a large extent because they're not trendy or producing shiny trinkets like Apple.
F'more if Japan repatriated capital and investments, chances of a serious meltdown would be high. People don't really understand the size and extent of carry trade. Not saying that I have the ability to quantify its impact.
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