Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that gold has topped US$2,700/oz for the first time ever as concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East and a tight US election race prompted some investors to flock to the 'safety' of the yellow metal. But although some did, most have retained their high risk appetites.
However first, there were no surprises in US housing start data for September, coming in just as expected and the general level it has been at for most of 2024.
And Wall Street's Q3 earnings season reporting is building with 14% of S&P500 companies reporting so far, and the results are quite positive, reinforcing investor risk appetites.
China’s new home prices in their 70 major cities fell -5.7% in September from a year ago, more than the -5.3% fall in the previous month. It was the 15th straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2015. Second hand houses seem to have fallen by much more, by -10.7%. This sector won;t be helping China's "wealth effect".
Meanwhile China said its Q3-2024 GDP expanded by +4.6%, marginally better than the +4.5% expected but less than Beijing's 5% target. They also said industrial production improved to +5.4% and retail sales were up 3.2%, on the same basis. Their jobless rate fell slightly, to 5.1%.
Japan said its inflation rate fell to 2.5% in September from 3.0% in August. This was its lowest level since April. (It was also 3.0% in September 2023.)
Malaysian exports slipped slightly in September from August to be unchanged from the same month a year ago. But imports slipped more from the prior month although they are now more than +11% higher than a year ago. That all means their trade surplus fell by more than half in September 2024 from September 2023 and that extends their declining trend that started at the beginning of 2022.
The regular ECB survey of professional forecasters shows that expectations are low for the bloc over the next two years to 2026. They see inflation staying under control, economic expansion rising to only modest levels, and their jobless rate staying little-changed.
In Australia, their Federal Court yesterday ruled Latitude Finance Australia and Harvey Norman engaged in misleading conduct and made false or misleading representations in relation to a widespread advertising campaign for a 60-month interest free and no deposit payment method.
At the other end of the scale, their Fair Work Commission has ruled that a worker fired for repeatedly taunting a colleague over a long period of time and after repeated warnings, was judged to be unfairly dismissed as he was not properly trained in psychosocial safety policies. The aggressive employee was reinstated and compensated. The victim was thrown under the bus by the Commission.
In Canada, after trying to hide from an adverse court ruling by putting their companies into bankruptcy, Philip Morris, British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco will pay C$32 bln to smokers and health departments in Canada under the terms of a settlement put forward by a court mediator. They will continue to sell their addictive products however.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.08% and down -2 bps from yesterday. That is unchanged in a week. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, and now +11 bps and little-changed. Their 1-5 curve inversion is still inverted by -33 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is slightly deeper at -71 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.34% and up +3 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.09% and little-changed. But a week ago it was at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is still just under 4.46%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and up +7 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 up +0.5% in Friday trade, up +0.7% for the week. Overnight, European markets were mixed with London down -0.3% and both Frankfurt and Paris up +0.4%. Tokyo was up +0.2% yesterday to end its week down -1.7%. Hong Kong rose +3.6% on the day to end down -2.0% for the week. And Shanghai was up +2.9% to end up +0.6% for the week. Singapore rose +0.4% on Friday. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -0.9% for a weekly gain of +0.8%. And the NZX50 rose +0.4% on the day for a -0.2% weekly dip.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week unchanged and still hard over on the 'greed' range, just like last week. Overall markets are still comfortable with their risk appetite and have been for a month now.
The price of gold will start today at US$2717/oz and up +US$27 from this time yesterday - and yet another new all-time high.
Oil prices are -US$1 lower at just over US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$73.50/bbl. These levels are -US$6/bbl lower than a week ago.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.7 USc and and +10 bps firmer from this time yesterday. But that is -½c lower than a week ago.Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped -10 bps to 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 69.2, unchanged from yesterday at this time but down -10 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,847 and up 2.3% from this time yesterday. From a week ago it is up more than +10%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.7%.
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17 Comments
Ah my bad. Was discussing a similar case with an associate recently. After several complaints of bullying, the employer dismissed the worker.
The case went to arbitration and found that the employer had not done enough to support the bully in improving his conduct. Apparently, there is an entire playbook under the law on how to manage such situations that the employer needs to follow and document.
Tens of thousands of dollars later, the court also upheld the ruling and the employee had to be brought back with backpay for lost income.
And we want to be more competitive on the global stage. You think China, the US or Indonesia businesses need to put up with troublesome staff? Two of my last three employees I’ve had to hire a lawyer to get them out of my business (abusive, drug issues, not turning up). When my last staff members leave I’m not replacing them. I’m done. I’m not alone in this. Higher unemployment and lower tax take for the government. I’m choosing to unsubscribe from employer life after 10 years.
This is the main reason I went from over 60 to under 10. A small handful of staff are often making you the bulk of your turnover, and the problem areas are wiping out your profits.
It is troubling how hard it is to find reliability and motivation, but that's a problem with a long tail that an employer is unlikely to resolve.
Time.
Paul Buchanan hit the nail on the heads when years back someone suggested something similar about Afghanistan. "But the US has Stealth Bombers to defeat The Taliban!' (they're pretty potent). "Ah, yes" replied Paul, "But the Taliban have time and the stealth donkey".
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/contributors/articles/pau…
Easier territory to raise though.
Aside from Palestine, I don't think the Israelies are up for a prolonged ground based occupation of Lebanon or Iran.
They have significant advantages in neutralizing formal military capability of both Iran and Hezbollah. Hard to see them going much further than that.
It likely won't stop the other side from throwing rocks.
Not many people in the caption photo, not many either when there on a nice spring day Thursday lunchtime. The Square a sparse expanse of concrete, dominated by the spectre of a half cathedral, Victoria Square better only because it isn’t there. What was once a largish provincial town but busy and pretty enough now seems to be a wannabe city, but neither one thing or another. Still it apparently livens up at night so all is not lost. Seems to be Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch citizens see little reason, other than work if applicable, to leave their respective suburbs.
Perhaps, but not without caveats admittedly societal, but nonetheless inescapable. Neighbour proudly rode his new electric bike 15kms into town to the library. Locked it plus an extra carbonised cable lock. Came out half an hour later and it was gone. That’s it for him will not return.
"The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is still just under 4.46%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and up +7 bps from a week ago". It runs parallel with the UST 10 year to a 2 month high since 15th of July. Does this mean more borrowers will stick to 6 months interest terms into the future because long end rates, 3 year and longer, will not come down much any more. Could mean more exposure to (geopolitical) shocks with possible erratic short term interest changes.
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