Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news today it is all about the American labour market.
In an eye-catching showing, the headline (s.a.) rise in US non-farm payrolls (NFP) was +254,000 and almost double the expected +130,000 rise. And as regular readers will know, we also check the actual change, which was almost double that, at +460,000. All very impressive. There are now 162 mln people employed in their civilian labour force. There is momentum here and the impact of +460,000 more paid workers will be widespread and impact the whole global economy.
Both their unemployment rate, at 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in September.
And the East Coast/Gulf port strike seems to have been settled. So that is no longer an economic irritant.
This result is of outsized change and it had an impact on the financial markets. While the equity markets didn't react, the bond markets did, juicing up benchmark UST yields noticeably. The USD rose sharply too.
The US Fed may well be restrained by this labour market surge. Cutting rates into a fast-rising economy would be inflationary and they have only just gotten things back on an even keel. By any measure, they have achieved a 'soft landing'. They seem set up for a solid 2025 expansion (provided their economic management stays professional of course). The latest Q3 estimate of economic activity is +2.5% which would take their nominal GDP to US$29.4 tln and +US$1.4 tln more than a year ago. It is impressive. However, given today's labour market surge, there are upside 'risks' to these estimates.
And we should note that all this is going on while the US Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet. It is now down to just over US$7 tln, a -US$76 bln drop in one month, a -US$900 bln drop in a year, and an almost -US$2 tln drop since its 2022 peak. Monetary policy resilience is being built back up. Yes, US Federal debt held by the public is rising in dollar terms but not as a proportion of overall economic activity (GDP). But a stock-to-flow ratio like that is a bit a a junk sideline stat. You will hardly ever see that ratio in the commercial world.
China is still on its week-long holiday. By all accounts, travel-related activity is 'normal' but other aspects of their economy are still a worry. When they return next week we will likely start to see the rollout of their signaled fiscal 'bazooka'.
When they come back, they will note that the EU has voted in favour of imposing 45% tariffs on China-made EVs.
Singapore delivered good retail results for August, to be up +0.6% from a year ago and almost all of that in the latest month.
This is a long weekend for many of the east coast states in Australia (although not Victoria). We will notice their absence on Monday.
The monthly value of new home loans in Australia (not refi) rose again in August to be +23% higher than a year ago. But that is off a very weak base. From August 2021 they are actually down -3.4%.
And Aussie household spending was flat in August. Home loans and other housing costs are keeping a lid on discretionary spending, not to mention their elevated inflation levels - which you will recall is only being restrained by some recent chunky temporary energy subsidies.
More broadly, world food prices in September rose much more than expected, and across the board. In fact, it was the largest month-on-month increase since March 2022. Rising dairy prices were among tha gainers, but not so much meat prices.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.99% and up +15 bps from yesterday. That is up +22 bps from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, but lesser at +7 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is now inverted by -39 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now less at -88 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.20% and up +15 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.16% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now just on 4.29% and down -1 bp from yesterday, up +3 bps from this time last week.
Wall Street is in its Friday session on the S&P500 and up +0.6% and moving back towards its record high. For the week it will be little-changed. There was a range of closes for European equity markets overnight bookended by London's no change to Paris's +0.9% gain. Tokyo finished yesterday up +0.2% to be down -1.2% for the week. Hong Kong was up +2.8% yesterday to be up a spectacular +11% for the week. Shanghai was closed for the public holidays. Singapore was up +0.3%. The ASX200 ended its Friday down -0.7% to end its week down -0.8%. And the NZX50 rose +0.4% yesterday for a good +1.3% weekly gain.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week hard over on the 'greed' range, just more so than last week. Overall markets are comfortable with their risk appetite.
The price of gold will start today at US$2649/oz and down -US$6 from yesterday, but up +US$6 from a week ago.
Oil prices are up +US$2 at just under US$75.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$79/bbl. Middle-East tensions are now starting to affect these prices as the never-ending 'retaliation' cycle shows no sign of ending. A week ago these prices were US$8 lower at US$67.50 and US$71.50 respectively.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.6 USc and down -60 bps from this time yesterday. That is a big -2c fall from 63.5 USc a week ago however. Against the Aussie we are -20 bps lower at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps to 56.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 69.7, and down another -30 bps from yesterday, down -100 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,254 and up +3.5% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at US$54,884 so a -5.5% fall since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest at just on +/- 1.6%.
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74 Comments
Good. They keep the wheels of industry turning. Together we stand divided we fall. Anyway as I understand it, the deal is not yet done and there are further discussions around automation. The American terminals just need to look at the very expensive failed attempt at automation in Auckland.
I believe American port productivity lags behind many other parts of the world.
But on the other hand, screw productivity. Most of it these days is heavily capital reliant, so the spoils are heavily weighted towards the capital owners, not the workers. Do the remaining staff at the supermarket get paid much more because they eliminated 6-8 human checkouts with self service? And did our groceries get cheaper?
I don't think unemployment will drop much across the more complex economies in the West over the next half a decade at least.
Boomers still leaving the workforce in droves with a smaller pool of trained workers to take their place.
The generous port worker settlement announced a few hours ago also reflects a similar pattern. The average age of dock workers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast is 43 years. The average manufacturing and engineering tradies in some key industrial US states is 55 years.
It's super funny how misguided all the enthusiasm in the 90s and 2000s was for young uns to scorn trades in favour of desk jobs. Now someone relatively uneducated can earn $150-$200 an hour holding a tool.
The downside is the costs to do any of this sort of work done is going to escalate past a lot of people's (and central authorities) ability to pay for it.
We're already seeing that cost escalation scenario play out in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors in places like UK and NZ.
The UK for one built its global might by becoming an industrial superpower but lost all of that with the allure of jobs in finance and paper uni degrees. It will soon become the only among the 15/20 largest economies that doesn't produce any base metals from scratch.
I'm also a tradie, amoung other things.
Technical trades need quals, but there's a whole host of trades someone can do well in, with almost no education required other than a basic apprenticeship. Bricklayers, plasterers, painters, concrete workers, landscapers etc. You learn systems and approaches, master and repeat them.
But our education system is mostly centred around shovelling people to University.
I was pretty sure plumbers, electricians, etc weren't paying their staff 300- 400K salaries in New Zealand. So I asked Copilot:
In New Zealand, the average hourly wage for tradesmen can vary depending on the specific trade and level of experience. Here are some general figures:
- Entry-level tradesmen typically earn around NZD $25 to $30 per hour.
- Experienced tradesmen can earn between **NZD $30 to $40 per hour.
- Highly skilled or specialized tradesmen** may earn upwards of NZD $40 per hour.
A tradesman may charge $200 an hour but that will be to cover a myriad of expenses, like a boss, an accountant, a receptionist, vehicle, depot and so on.
The only tool you will be holding getting $150-$200 an hour is a scalpel.
A good plasterer can make more than that holding a trowel. It's 6 grand to plaster a medium sized house, and a good operator is going to pump that out in 4 days with a few hundred bucks of mud.
Exterior even more.
Better to work for the government and have zero accountability, work from home, get mondo holidays, gold plated super and and epic expense account.
"Given the reimbursement rate, Allan is effectively claiming to have driven the length of New Zealand in her own car numerous times whilst also being a Minister, sitting MP and having use of a ministerial car, air flights and taxis."
https://x.com/CranmerWrites/status/1840541612885303740
The government is irrelevant to a degree, it's the underlying conditions, and then amplified by COVID.
Countries the world over are voting for the other end of whatever spectrum their leadership has been the last few terms, because they think the opposite is going to be better.
And that's the way it should be. Somehow those sitting at desks have tilted the scales severely in their direction over the decades. Probably the view that a machine can do the physical work.
Now a machine can do the desk job and with peak nett energy in hindsight, along with the limitations of machinery to do the small scale intricate stuff, and manual labour becomes valuable again.
The downside is that those sorts of jobs get tough when you get older and the body starts crapping out. Of course, smart tradies have started their own companies by then and get the young fellas to do the heavy/awkward stuff.
Keeping going during construction downturns can be pretty hairy though...
It will be 50pts.
Is that firm enough.
It will also make very little difference to the real economy unless Govt come in behind it with some investment (as Key / English did in Dec 2008). Look at the jobs numbers?
Without govt investment, what we’re really trying to work out is just what level of additional private debt at what interest rate for what additional product is enough to pull us out of this hole. And the answer is almost infinite at 0% for nothing. Because that’s the direction we’re heading in.
And because of that, this approach to “fixing” anything is deeply flawed because all we want is more money cheaper for the same stuff.
Exactly - I was discussing this with peole from around 2013 when I could see what was unfolding and would lead to the current situation we find ourselves in.
Drop rates -> people load up with debt -> oil shock/inflation -> debt bubble pops.
I was saying to people why don’t we have debt limits to stop people over leveraging relative to incomes while the central banks are dropping rates - because all we are going to achieve is to create the risk of a credit/property bubble which history shows are extremely damaging to economies after they have peaked.
Slow and steady beats boom and bust - but instead we’ve gone for the extreme boom option and it appears to me we’ve now had the first part of the bust with the main event still ahead of us.
You would imagine that the folk at Treasury and the wider commentariat would be looking at the US economy and wondering whether there could perhaps be something we could learn? But, no, all we hear is fiscal sustainability, back to surplus, save for the future nonsense. This approach will constrain and suppress our little economy into a permanent slump. Look at what happened when George Osborne grandly announced in 2011 that the new UK Govt were going to reduce Govt investment, return to surplus, and get the Govt debt back in check. Austerity choked the economy and Govt debt doubled over the next 10 years. It doesn't work - you need to invest to expand and grow.
While Govt fret publicly about debt, they actually have a positive net financial worth of about 18% of GDP - i.e. more financial assets than liabilities. The US Govt has a negative net financial worth of -112% of GDP. We are literally saving for the future while under-investing in the things we will need and need now. We are unique in the world in having a positive Govt net financial worth and a current account deficit. This is only possible because we have sky high private debt, which we rely on for growth - in interest-rate driven cycles of credit booms and recession. It's complete madness.
Now, let's be clear, pumping Govt money into a consumer economy to support household over-consumption is not my idea of sensible. But the same approach could be used, with care, to sort out our failing infrastructure, build resilience, and expand our economy sustainably. Abundant, cheap, distributed, resilient electricity would be where I'd start.
Where's the vision? Is our future hoping the price of milk powder stays high, that the slips take someone else's house, and that next weekend will be a cracker of a sale at Briscoes?
It's very hard to reverse the Cantillion effect, and if there were any easy, clear path to rolling out highly lucrative export industry, it'd be done. Instead countries the world over are throwing hundreds of billions of dollars trying to strike gold in new industries and the wins are few and far between. Hence, better run and resourced countries than ours still struggle to make any above nominal improvements to GDP and productivity growth.
Secure energy is wise in and of itself, but it does nothing to actually address this.
But clearly the model is broken, as you allude to if we're just populations of consumers the road has to end at zero eventually. It'd be nice if we actually put the focus away from net numbers and averages, and actually defined what an ideal life should be like for our average citizen, and made that more of a core focus. But I doubt you'd get a political mandate for it.
"It'd be nice if we....actually defined what an ideal life should be like for our average citizen"
We have! It's called a Property Portfolio, complete with Ladders to make us Wealthy from guaranteed Tax-free Capital Gains And hence one of a good number of points made in the post you're replying to, "we have sky high private debt....it's complete madness."
"It'd be nice if we....actually defined what an ideal life should be like for our average citizen"
We have! It's called a Property Portfolio, complete with Ladders to make us Wealthy from guaranteed Tax-free Capital Gains And hence one of a good number of points made in the post you're replying to, "we have sky high private debt....it's complete madness."
Sigh.
Housing is only a bit player, or symptom of capitalism maturating to the point where it offers diminishing, or even negative returns for the bulk of participants.
"It's very hard to reverse the Cantillion [sic] effect..."
Not so.
The French & the Russians found an excellent way to reverse the Cantillon effect in 1789 & 1917. [evil grin]
Personally, I'd prefer using taxes endorsed by voters. (Alas, voters aren't that bright so maybe I'll need to wait for a revolution.)
"It's very hard to reverse the Cantillion [sic] effect..."
Not so.
The French & the Russians found an excellent way to reverse the Cantillon effect in 1789 & 1917. [evil grin]
I would define two instances out of hundreds "very hard" to come by. You are more likely to inherit an even worse set of overlords in a violent overthrow.
Personally, I'd prefer using taxes endorsed by voters. (Alas, voters aren't that bright so maybe I'll need to wait for a revolution.)
Part of the phenom is a relocation of production to where it can be done cheaper. This is also very hard to reverse without sustained societal austerity.
We can tax extreme wealth to better balance personal fortunes, however such a mechanism tends to only abate poverty, and doesn't foster much in the way of personal prosperity.
wondering whether there could perhaps be something we could learn
You mean like pumping out record amounts of oil and gas (US is now the #1 oil producer globally), whacking tariffs on imported products, and trafficking millions of illegal immigrants to small towns to replace all the local workers in industrial plants and factories? Yup, boom times ahead.
I don't remember anyone saying that.
I do remember people were saying it would be 'Merican consumers that would end up paying the tariffs while US capitalists were given a free ride to charge more for otherwise uncompetitive US made products when Chinese products could be had far cheaper. Massive market distortion.
When living in a known flood zone pays:
You don’t have to be on a benefit, or be a New Zealand resident, to qualify.
You may be able to receive a payment if you don’t have insurance to cover costs.
My suggestion would be to stop growing population in Dunedin and start red zoning the houses that have been flooding for as long as I can remember. Sometimes you just have to do what the people of Kelso did, face reality and leave. Too expensive to start over? Well then, welcome to being 'young' in NZ.
‘Gold predicting a big economic crisis’
https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1842218404272652698?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7…
I'll generally steer clear of investing in something where there's a huge volume of publicity. Bitcoin, gold, meme stocks, there's way too much self interest tied up to objectively appraise any of the claims, and it's easier to lose money on a bandwagon than make it.
I'll generally steer clear of investing in something where there's a huge volume of publicity. Bitcoin, gold, meme stocks, there's way too much self interest tied up to objectively appraise any of the claims
That's a silly thing to say P. Granny Herald (and the Aotearoa economy and people's "savings") rely on a tsunami of content related to the Ponzi narrative. The hoi polloi are soaking in it. But Granny rarely has few to no experts and content on ratty, gold, etc.
One of the most hated of cryptos XRP has been in court for the past 4 years with the SEC trying to bury it. Even the crypto community generally hates. Despite this, it's value has increased 100% over the past 4 years - far more than the Aotearoa Ponzi and equity markets.
That being said, I agree that many people jumping on the crypto bandwagon for an easy buck is like a monkey in the cockpit of a plane.
‘Gold predicting a big economic crisis’
One bullish quote from the past "there will be no interruption to our permanent prosperity" Myron E Forbes - Jan 12, 1928.
Right now personally, I think that globally, geopolitically and economically, things are more ripe than this time last year, and they're still ripening.
AFR takes on the idea of a housing 'supercycle' emerging - bigger than we've ever seen perhaps. Not a particularly compelling argument to me and the article feels shallow, but I would never discount the possibility. Aotearoa even gets a few mentions.
Over the coming years, housing markets could face all sorts of slings and arrows, from swings in economic growth and interest rates to banking busts. But with the long-term effects of demography, urban economics and infrastructure aligning, consider a prediction made in 2017 by Miles and Sefton. It finds that “in many countries it is plausible that house prices could now persistently rise faster than incomes”. The world’s biggest asset class is likely to get ever bigger.
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/three-reasons-the-housing-supe…
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