Statistics NZ says the number of filled jobs rose in August after a four-month slump

Statistics New Zealand says the number of filled jobs in the country rose in August after four consecutive months of decline.

Stats NZ’s Monthly Employment Indicators (MEI) release for August showed, on a seasonally adjusted basis, there was a 0.2% or 4,679 increase in the total number of jobs in the country to 2.37 million. 

In the July MEI release, Stats NZ’s data showed on a seasonally adjusted basis there was a 2,975 or 0.1% drop in the total number of jobs in NZ. 

July was the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the MEI data series had recorded four consecutive months of falls on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Changes in the seasonally adjusted filled jobs for August compared with the prior month of July were:

• Primary industries – up 0.1% or 94 jobs
• Goods-producing industries – up 0.2% or 996 jobs
• Service industries – up 0.2% or 3,489 jobs

On an annual basis, Stats NZ said filled jobs were down by 0.4% or 9,457 to 2.36 million when comparing August 2024 to August 2023. 

In that period, the number of filled jobs fell by 1.2% or 14,491 jobs for men, and 0.5% or 5,749 jobs for women.

Actual gross earnings on an accrual basis for August 2024 were $15.6 billion, compared with $15.4 billion in August last year – a 1.29% increase.

Actual gross earnings on an accrual basis a month earlier in July 2024 were $15.5 billion.

By industry, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs when comparing August 2024 with August 2023 were in the below sectors:

• health care and social assistance – up 4.3% or 11,525 jobs
• construction – down 3.9% or 8,197 jobs
• administrative and support services – down 6.9% or 7,250 jobs
• accommodation and food services – down 2.5% or 4,005 jobs
• retail trade – down 1.8% or 3,958 jobs

When it came to the regions, Auckland and Wellington reported the biggest decreases in the number of filled jobs on an annual basis with Auckland down 0.9% or 7,676 jobs and Wellington down 0.9% or 2,310 jobs.

Filled jobs in Taranaki fell 1.4% or 802 jobs while filled jobs in Canterbury rose up by 0.5% or 1,562 jobs and Waikato edged up 0.2% or 545 jobs.

Filled jobs for younger age groups continued to fall, with a particular decline in the 15 to 19-year-olds:

• 15–19 years – down 12.8% or 17,351 jobs
• 35–39 years – up 4.6% or 12,100 jobs
• 25–29 years – down 3.6% or 9,569 jobs
• 40–44 years – up 3.4% or 8,211 jobs
• 20–24 years – down 2.9% or 6,469 jobs

Filled jobs for 15 to 24-year-olds have been decreasing on an annual basis since August 2023, and the 25 to 34-year-olds began showing annual decreases from May 2024.

To be revised lower?

Westpac senior economist Darren Gibbs said the MEI tends to be overstated on its first release, and the July result revised down from a decrease of 0.1% to 0.2%.

“Next month the August outcome is likely to be revised lower too, with weekly data pointing to a broadly flat result over this month. We also note that earlier data for September suggests that the downward trend in employment may have resumed since August,” he said in a note.

Stats NZ revealed in August that the unemployment rate in the June quarter rose 0.2% to 4.6%, with employment failing to keep up with a growing workforce.

The total labour force grew by 20,000 in the June quarter. 

While 18,000 people reached working age and an additional 2000 people chose to enter the workforce, the number of people who were employed in the quarter only increased by 12,000 and the remaining 8000 were classified as unemployed. 

This brought the total number of jobless people to 143,000, or 4.6%. Stats NZ’s labour market manager Deb Brunning described it as the highest unemployment rate reported in the past three years.

The unemployment rate for the September quarter will be released in early November. Gibbs said Westpac was currently forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 5% in the September quarter.