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US data quite positive again, except for their housing markets; eyes on commodity market reactions; Aussie job strength to keep their rates unchanged; freight rates fall; UST 10yr 3.73%; gold and oil up, NZ$1 = 62.5; TWI = 69.9

Economy / news
US data quite positive again, except for their housing markets; eyes on commodity market reactions; Aussie job strength to keep their rates unchanged; freight rates fall; UST 10yr 3.73%; gold and oil up, NZ$1 = 62.5; TWI = 69.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news stock markets are roaring today after the US Fed rate cut, many, including Wall Street, powering up to record highs. And interest rate curves are steepening.

But first, the actual number of people making initial unemployment benefit claims in the US dropped from the previous week to 185,000 last week, significantly lower than the expected 230,000, and a 4-month low. There are now 1.68 mln people on these benefits, also a decrease.

Meanwhile the Philly Fed factory survey reported improved conditions in the rust-belt states in September. Although the new orders component didn't rise, the sentiment indexes for the future all did.

But not rising is their real estate market. Existing home sales fell -2.5% in August from the previous month, the fourth decline of the year. It was down -4.2% from the same month a year ago. The fall happened despite the drop in mortgage rates in the period. And the median existing-home sales price fell too, to US$416,900 (NZ$670,000). The inventory of unsold housing rose to 18 weeks of sales at the latest rate, rising from 15.6 weeks in the prior month.

But one thing the Fed rate cut did was suddenly drop home loan interest rates, falling more than -25 bps in the first day to 6.09% for their benchmark mortgage. It is likely to go sharply lower tomorrow again.

The US current account deficit widened slightly to -3.7% of GDP in Q2-2024. That is entirely manageable, especially as the USD is still the world's reserve currency. (For comparison, the New Zealand current account deficit is running at -6.7% of our GDP - and we are certainly not a reserve currency.)

Overnight there were central bank rate decisions in both Taiwan and England. Both made no changes. Perhaps the Taiwanese one was a bit of a surprise because they tend to follow the US Fed's moves. Later today Japan will also review rates, and no change in their rate is expected either. But markets will be looking for signals about when the next rise is coming.

Will the start of the rate easing cycle trigger an economic upside? Certainly some commodities markets think so. And they also expect China to come to the party soon with new emergency stimulus, which would be another boost.

In Hong Kong, a man was jailed for 14 months for wearing a t-shirt with a protest message.

In Australia, their number of workers without a job fell by -10,500 to 627,000, or an unchanged 4.2% of their workforce. Even though employment rose by much more than the expected +25,000, the number of new part-time roles rose +47,500 and the number of new full-time roles fell -3,100 in August. Almost 31% of all Aussie jobs are now part-time. (In New Zealand it is barely touching 20%.)

The overall jobs growth in Australia has analysts thinking that the RBA will delay any move to cut rates there any time soon. But a rise doesn't seem on the cards either, despite their outlier sticky inflation.

Container freight rates fell another -5% last week, taking them back to where they were at the start of the year. But they remain 180% higher than the average 2019 pre-pandemic rate. The Panama issues are resolved, but the Suez/Red Sea issues are not. The shipping industry is adjusting to that new reality however. Bulk cargo rates fell -3.6% over the past week and are now themselves +30% higher than year-ago levels. As we all know, for both there has been a lot of volatility in between and that volatility has probably not ended.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.73% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now +14 bps positive. Their 1-5 curve inversion is less at -46 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also much less at -96 bps and its least in four months. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.00% and up another +8 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.05%, and up +1 bps and off its record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now just on 4.21% and up another +5 bps from yesterday.

Wall Street is surging today with the S&P500 up +1.8% from yesterday after the Fed decision. Overnight, European markets were all up too, but with varying enthusiasm. London gained +0.9%, Frankfurt was up +1.6% and Paris surged +2.3%. Tokyo ended its Thursday trade up is own strong +2.1%. Shanghai was up a more modest +0.7%. But Hong Kong closed up +2.0%. Singapore was up +1.1%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday trade up a relatively modest +0.6% and that was matched by the NZX50, also up +0.6%.

The price of gold will start today at US$2589/oz and up +US$14 from yesterday's high to near a new all-time high again.

Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at US$72/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just under US$75/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 62.5 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 56 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,817 and up another strong +5.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.6%.

Daily exchange rates

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77 Comments

Panama resolved till the next dry year. 

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Optimism bias and short-term thinking. 

Fatal combination

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Matthew Hootons piece in the Herald this morning is good (as is most of his stuff). "Worst economic downturn in living memory" - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/worst-economic-downturn-in-living-m…

(Paywall)

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In my view he’s one of the best 2-3 commentators in the land. Perhaps him and Trotter.

 

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Makes sense. 

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Key Facts

  1. GDP Decline: New Zealand's GDP fell by 0.2% in the June quarter, indicating economic contraction.
  2. Per Capita GDP Drop: Over the past seven quarters, per capita GDP has decreased by 4.6%, significantly impacting average living standards.
  3. Historical Context: This decline is more prolonged and severe than the post-global financial crisis drop of 4.2% over the same duration.

Opinion Summary

Matthew Hooton highlights the troubling state of New Zealand's economy, emphasizing the significant fall in both GDP and per capita GDP. Despite a net influx of immigrants, the overall economic outlook remains bleak, with per capita disposable income down 6.2% since September 2022.

Hooton critiques past and current governments for failing to address underlying productivity issues, arguing that short-term fixes and a focus on balancing budgets are insufficient. He suggests that without serious structural reforms, New Zealand risks falling behind other developed nations in terms of living standards and public services.

The article stresses the need for visionary leadership to navigate the impending economic challenges and to foster long-term growth, rather than just addressing immediate fiscal concerns.

 

 

Willis... Its all RBNZ.. Labours fault...Everyone else but us.

Ferry has broken down again.

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The thing is, while he is centre-right, he has been very critical of the current government, and rightly so.

He’s very balanced and objective.

Unlike the National Party and Act fanboys who frequent the comments section of this website.

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"He’s very balanced and objective."

- his track record suggests that his primary objective is his own self promotion. cf. Hollow Men & Dirty Politics 

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Ok sure. But putting that to one side, his articles are excellent, balanced and objective

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Can't be. 

He doesn't address the physics, or the ecology, of a physics/ecology-reliant species. Which is currently overshot. 

So balanced he cannot be, proportionately. That goes for most in the NZ media...

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Alright I see what is going on here. He’s a family member of yours, right?

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What a weird comment 

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Yeah, but is he?

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Yeah he’s my twin

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Haha, I knew it.

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In the Dec 21 quarter, GDB increased a whopping 5.6%. Of course Covid was a factor, but not that much (GDP figures weren't that bad during Covid). So this whole recession isn't as bad as a good year we had not so long ago. 

Mar-20: 2.4

Jun-20: -0.7

Sep-20: -1

Dec-20: -1.3

Mar-21: -0.4

Jun-21: 6

Sep-21: 5.3

Dec-21: 5.6

Mar-22: 4.6

Jun-22: 0.7

Sep-22: 2.5

Dec-22: 2.4

Mar-23: 2.7

Jun-23 3

Sep-23: 1.3

Dec-23: 0.7

Mar-24: 0.3

Jun-24: -0.2

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If this is the worst ever, we’re doing pretty well! Unemployment is lower than the rock star economy days. Obviously some folk are doing it tough, but considering the increase in interest rates, I’m still amazed it isn’t worse. 
As for Hooten, I agree to some extent, but this kind of hyperbole isn’t helping my opinion. In 1990 the unemployment rate was 10%, I think his glasses were a bit rose tinted back then. 

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starting to hear of many 100 people factory shutdown rural, sawmills, clothing factory up north... going to be a hard month for many families

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You said the same thing in the last 4+ quarters. 

I'm a stats person, and the stats haven't aligned with the anecdotes for a very long time. 

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Month? You’re lucky to find a job interview in a month at the moment. No one is hiring, especially this close to Christmas 

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Ever heard of LAG?

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Yep, you guys went on about it a few years ago, I'm still waiting...

Are you thinking unemployment will get anywhere near 10%? Considering we just proved that full employment is somewhere near 3.3% (remember all the jobs ads in every shop window), 4.6% is not much compared to 10%. 

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No I don’t think it will get anywhere near 10%, and that’s good.

But there are a variety of outcomes beyond unemployment that can hit people hard, including: 

- reduced hours (eg. 8 or 9 day fortnights, or less working hours for people in hospo or retail)

- annual bonuses disappearing (I think the impact of this is underestimated)

- SME owners having to live on the bones of their asses to survive 

And then there are wider impacts such as skilled kiwis leaving the country, and potentially never coming back

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Just bumped into engineer mate. He got made redundant on Wednesday. First of several rounds of redundancies at his place. It's the same across the industry, initial redundancies and they keep coming. 

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While the objective data paints a very bleak picture, we have to bear in mind the boom years prior to the hangover.

This lead to many people being much wealthier (on paper) and allows them to stomach the current crisis better. Even folks who spend their riches on new Rangers and bigger boats would have more collateral to liquidate in order to survive.

Also there seems to also be a consensus amongst banks to not call in bad loans too hastily but help their troubled customers to hang on for longer.

What really surprised me is the discount our bank (ANZ) has offered on the carded special rate, 0.5% on 6 months, 0.75% on 12 & 18 months.

Now as the easing cycle has begun, we will probably feel the full impact on the employment market in the next 6 months but pockets of hope are starting to emerge, as everybody knows things will get cheaper again.

Personally, I think to have the worst behind me. We bought before the market peaked, fixed relatively short due to all the transitory inflation talk, so had to suck up an interest rate of 6.3% for the last 12-18 months while also having experienced an income cut of 30% plus 6 weeks of unemployment.

We're very soon due to re-fix and either we go with 6 months paying effectively what we pay now or fix a portion for 12 months @ 5.6% and pay a little less.

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In reference to boom years, watched a story about Egmont Seeds in New Plymouth the other night and the owner said the company did an extra $1 million in sales during COVID. Other businesses will have boomed too and there will be those that saved the extra money as well as those that spent it.

 

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Unemployment is a lagging indicator

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Time for everyone in the West to follow the US lead and get their mojos back.

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The NZ MoJo is tied inextricably to the lead encased, concrete gumbooted Housing Ponzi scheme.......and its been tossed off the boat somewhere in the South Pacific!

So sorry, our Mojo wont come back until we get this Ponzi stopped in its terminal rate of decline that is still midpath in trajectory. 
- It only gets reanimated when mortgages rates are well below 3%.

So maybe 2028-2030?  -   "All gets Perky in 2030"    -  New mantra for the old greasy TA Comb, on the Onewoof?

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I agree. The broader construction and infrastructure sectors are forced to downsize majorly at a time when NZ is already going through a sharp economic downturn and facing a huge infrastructure deficit. This is going to be detrimental to NZ in many ways as the supply side will continue to decline.

People on this site and broader media asserting that lower interest rates could reverse all our economic woes baffle me.

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The cognitive dissonance is strong...

"I saw lovely clients this week ... and their income as a household was $350,000. Working incredibly long hours, very clever people, but in the same breath they have one home with a $1.1 million mortgage and at 7% that means $88,000 is gone per year.

“They said, ‘Katie we are honestly living pay cheque to pay cheque. We just don’t know where we are going wrong’.”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cut-up-your-credit-cards-financial-expert… 

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I can’t understand why people thought mortgage interest rates would stay at that historically low level.

This article is on the back of poor Tori Whanau who’s struggling to pay the bills on her $190k salary and $1.4m lotto win.

Times are tough.

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Times aren't tough - just people are stupid and believed that you can make your dreams come true by borrowing. 

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It's not that people thought interest rates would stay at that historically low level. It's more that most people didn't expect them to triple, and quickly.

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Maybe - all it shows is that things change.

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I bought my house off the plan in 2018 and settled in 2021. A lot of friends and relatives thought I was being stingy by borrowing much lower than what the banks were willing to lend.

We have built a dangerous culture in this country that discourages (borderline shames) people who choose to live within their means.

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Surely they have some kind of addiction? Gambling maybe? Even Frank would struggle to spend that on booze.

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Status anxiety?

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It is a bit shit though that the media has manipulated it. There are obviously people struggling who aren’t earning $350k, but that is a boring story. 

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Gambling whilst boozing is the killer. 

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If I were earning 350k/yr I'd be looking to have a moderate home, easily have an emergency fund if things went south health or accident wise, have a percentage for investments, and the rest for mortgage with a fixed disposable segment which would have to be worked out to supplement a modest lifestyle. It baffles me why those that earn so much spend so much, when they could be harnessing their limited ability (we only get one life and a fixed period for peak earnings) to earn high amounts and use them to benefit their future selves instead of their current selves. 

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It's just a classic case of lifestyle creep, isn't it? (assuming no "hidden" issues e.g. addictions that are gobbling up huge amounts of cash under the table).

I recall in that book 'The Millionaire Next Door' about the extent to which many higher income earners are - from a net worth position - no better off than when they were lower income earners (if not worse off) because the lifestyle inflates with the income, and it's made even worse when you start using debt to buy yourself an even better lifestyle than you can really afford.

I've done it a bit myself. I'll buy premium economy flights when the wife and I really are fine in regular economy. I've got a car that is more than I really need. Unless you are insanely disciplined avoiding all lifestyle creep is impossible I'd imagine.

The saving grace is we haven't done what this $350k couple have done and borrowed huge sums to buy a house that is well beyond what we can really afford. In fact, we have a more modest house than many of our friends who have lower HHIs, so despite having the odd material indulgence we are likely in a better position as it's borrowing big for property that is presumably the #1 cause of lifestyle creep-induced financial disaster, maybe followed with financing flashy cars at #2.

Heck I know a guy who earns over $1 million a year (not his business, that is his personal income - and I know it for a fact) and is struggling to pay his bills at the moment. Why? Because he leveraged himself to the hilt buying tons of properties when interest rates were lower, and now has to gobble up most of his enormous income paying back loans that he never thought would be so expensive to repay. 

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Fair points, but also unfair. A $1.1 million mortgage might be on a house of circa $1.5 million value. In Auckland that’s a good house in a good suburb, but nothing more. Still fairly modest , especially for someone on that sort of income

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That 1.1 million mortgage might also be on an $850K property.
"especially for someone on that sort of income" - is this not a prime example of life-style creep?

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I seem to remember in 2016 things were frothing up at 4.5% interest rates. 

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Make

Aotearoa

Great 

Again

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It seemed great when you could bank a couple of hundred grand tax free capital gains from housing while working for the gravey...

But that shit show is over, and moolah is back to hard to make.

No more ITM Fishing shows, more Highway Liquidator type shows now

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It’s a bit manky isn’t it. Jimbo has awakened me though and I’m thinking, as an experiment, cut the booze for a month and go full time pro gambler. 

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In Hong Kong, a man was jailed for 14 months for wearing a t-shirt with a protest message.

Meanwhile, in Australia...

"“Prominent activist Monica Smit has been ordered to pay more than $200,000 in legal costs after a court found she was unlawfully arrested during anti-lockdown protests in Melbourne in October 2020.

The 36-year-old sued the Victorian government for false imprisonment in July. The County Court of Victoria on Thursday ruled two of the three arrests were unlawful, as the government had failed in those instances to prove the elements required under section 458 of the Crimes Act for summary arrest. Ms Smit spent 22 days in [solitary] custody on charges of inciting others to attend the 2021 protest. Those charges were eventually dropped, and she was later found guilty without conviction of breaching Covid orders."

@SenatorRennick

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/melbourne-activis…

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Does TA finally admit the price to income ratio of nz housing is about to fall back so more?

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-why-do-kiwi-houses-cost-n…

As wages are not about to leap forward that needs further drops in price, perhaps another 10-20%

 

 

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‘Housing has also become a retirement investment asset encouraged by an ability of investors to borrow and gear up their investment which is not available for other assets like shares. A whole industry has sprung up aimed at educating people about residential property investment and helping people to build a portfolio. This industry did not exist in any noticeable way before the 1990s.’

And the country was a much better place before the rise of this obsession with property investment. Can we go back to how things were - you know before people became completely deluded by greed and their own self interest. 

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"Can we go back to how things were - you know before people became completely deluded by greed and their own self interest. "

Not going to happen. People nowadays are much more aware than we were 40+ years ago that nobody else is willing  or able to look after them except themselves (& possibly close family). There's no longer many employers who respect loyal staff, successive Govts across the spectrum have proven to be incompetent craven liars over decades, academia & mainstream media are demonstrably unprincipled and agenda driven, justice is a bad joke...the list goes on 

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Speaking about academia - there is a cat that has an h index. 

https://www.science.org/content/article/how-easy-it-fudge-your-scientif…

Recently read a book called Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth by Stuart Richie which confirmed my view that humans really don't know very much unless it can be accurately measured repeatedly ( this avoids the replication bias / crisis - also known as bullshit asymmetry / Brandolini's law).

 

 

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that humans really don't know very much unless it can be accurately measured repeatedly

100% and yet this is the scientific method that most of the anti-woke, culture wars people are trying to undermine.

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Yeah back in the good old days Jenny Shipley etc had your back, your job was real safe despite double digit unemployment rates. 

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Ok so greed and self interest is the solution to these issues you raise…not!!

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Any significant & lasting culture change will need to start with the country's leadership & it's public institutions: there's very good reason they've lost our respect (it didn't happen overnight but it did happen).

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I’ve had enough of the current culture and I think there are many others in the same boat. So if we try to implement new tax regulation on housing - how much will housing investors start bitching about how unfair a capital gains tax is?

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I would argue that housing becoming a retirement investment asset was encouraged also due to the tax settings. Taxing KiwiSaver and other savings, but not investment housing. No wonder the money flowed where it did.

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Agree. You would have been a bit stupid not to invest in housing TBH.

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Exactly. Adam Smith rational choice theory.

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Or pigs to the trough with no consideration of the overal financial and social implications of their investment decisions.

‘Should I outbid this FHB so I can own my 3rd rental? Oh well because of the tax settings it is my obligation to be greedy wrt housing. Nothing I could have done’

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Blame the rules, not the player. 

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We collectively make the rules Jimbo because we live in a democracy.

The dirty little secret is that people liked the rules (so had no interest in changing them) the way they were so they could maximise their own wealth by speculating with debt against the housing market - and anyone who dare spoke out about how broken this system was was labelled a doom gloom merchant. 

So instead of fighting to change the rules to prevent financial and social instability problems, they all put their heads into the trough through greed and self interest to maximise their own wealth.

Then guys like you claim zero responsibility and say things ‘blame the rules and not the player’ - like you have no culpability/moral responsibility to do the right things to prevent these problems from arising. Although these types of views and behaviours more or less sum up people in the age bracket 50-75 ish across the western world. 

You made the rules by voting for them then you say ‘blame the rules and not the player’ This is complete BS when the players create and vote for the same rules they have been exploiting for their own benefit. 

 

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Investment housing has usually been taxed similarly to dividends & savings: on income (not to forget the FIF & Brightline anomalies)

You apparently are referring to CGT: not usually applied to investment funds or shares (unless a "trader").

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The FIF is pretty relevant to Kiwisaver though? A lot of people in growth funds will have a decent chunk invested in overseas shares, etc. 

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Agree. 

A possible causal factor is the 1987 crash. The $10bn speculative bubble wipeout left a deep scar on the NZ financial psyche and it's still visible today. It's crazy how deeply embedded the "safe as houses", "houses always go up" and "isn't the stock market risky?" mindset is. I see it changing in younger generations though. 

Sadly I see the housing crisis in Aotearoa getting worse. The house price to median income ratios in places like Brazil, India and SA tell the story that there's still plenty of upside in the housing market regardless of short term yield - the door's just closed to the average person now. Houses always go up is a self fulfilling prophecy and the trend of income stagnation vs asset price growth continues. 

Largely the game is now buying existing houses rather than building new ones unless they're luxuries. In fact, who would be stupid enough to invest their money into building new houses when the people that need them have no money to buy them? 

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‘the trend of income stagnation vs asset price growth continues’

Last time I looked real house prices were down 20-30% with an extremely bearish looking technical trend in the chart and almost no fundamentals to support present valuations. 

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Thanks for pointing out my inaccuracy, I should have said the long term trend shouldn't I? 

Which is that the rate of house price increase is something close to 50% higher than the rate of household income growth since 2000 (from my shoddy memory) and that's not discounting the shift towards most households necessitating 2 full time workers to support it rather than 1 full and 1 part/optional 25 years ago. Hence the wage collapse vs asset increase trend. 

Hopefully you're right and it's a true inflection point but the sheer amount of cultural momentum, financial vested interest and wealth inequality driving this thing indicates otherwise to me. 

 

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Coalition getting health back on track. 

More than 80% of junior doctors who took the survey have seen resources reduced. Budget restraints and the recruitment freeze have meant they’re spending more time doing paperwork, more administrative tasks, there are delays getting training reimbursements and delays getting paid for additional duties or shifts.

“People give up their time with their families because there are so many gaps in the roster, and then because of the lack of back office staff, they’re then having to spend months waiting to be paid for doing those duties.”

Half of all respondents are also completing work which normally wouldn’t be theirs, 38% say it’s affecting their ability to access their leave, 43% say it’s impacting their access to training.

Asked who the public should believe given the conflicting pictures being painted by Health NZ and the frontline, Littlehales said:

“I mean, it’s difficult, but we’re the people on the ground that see it. Obviously, you know Margie Apa, they have a higher level view, but they’re not there day in, day out, actually seeing the effect that it's having, seeing the gaps in person.”

Reti was approached for an interview but declined.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350422855/health-minister-warned-first…

 

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"The Fate of NZ's Entire Health System has been tied to Auckland University of Technology's Chancellor and now an Auckland University of Technology Professor"...

"I suggest the greatest priority of Chris Luxon is to fly without delay to France, or Singapore, and learn about how things can be done better - how better health-care quality can be delivered for lower cost than Health NZ will ever be able to achieve."

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/the-auckland-university-of-technology…

 

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People in Singapore and France are prepared to pay taxes for their excellent health systems, something old new Zealander's seem reluctant to contemplate, they wanted the $3 billion landlord tax cuts instead and now we're seeing the consequence as service cuts (masked at back-office efficiencies) start filtering through.

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Margie Apa's body language when standing besides Levy reminded me of the female Doctor while Trump was espousing bleach and U.V light against Covid 

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I wonder if Willis drove her Corolla down to the port to check on the "much safer and more efficient because it's private enterprise"bluebridge ferry? though they found an expert to say it was safe because there was not much wind , and it was blowing in the right direction. Yup , you can rely on that old mill pond , the Cook Strait. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/528525/bluebridge-ferry-maritime-un…

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I wonder if this stuff keep her up at night..probably not, as she will just blame Labour no doubt.

 

 

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I think it is has been pretty clearly demonstrated that she has no conscience whatsoever.

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I posted a link to an excellent podcast on this issue and how it is playing out in Florida. Well worth a listen. It has implications for people who buy at-risk properties due to climate events but also properties in the same vicinity of the at-risk properties. Link to podcast at bottom.

“It has essentially rendered our property uninsurable. This has been incredibly distressing for us as we look to protect our most valuable asset, our home.”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/uninsurable-the-maps-having-a-chilling-ef…

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7igh3RDF6IFjthLYBYLAlG?si=PI2AIisCQOWL…

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