Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the world's second-largest economy is having trouble convincing anyone it is under control.
This coming week it will be all about the US Fed rate decisions, and the size of the rate cut. We will get that on Thursday NZT. And there will be central bank rate decisions this week from Japan, Norway, China, the UK, and Turkey. Australia will release its labour market updates. And of course, the New Zealand Q2 GDP result will also come Thursday.
But over the weekend it was mostly about China.
China’s industrial production rose by +4.5% in August from a year ago, falling short of market forecasts and slowing from July. This was the softest growth since March, and the fourth straight month of a slowdown. But at least it was confirmed by their electricity production data, up +5.8%. It is rare that electricity use exceeds industrial production expansion, so perhaps that is an encouraging signal for them.
But China's retail sales underperformed, rising just +2.1% from a year ago in August, moderating from +2.7% growth in the prior month and missing market consensus of +2.5%. Lower car sales kept a lid on this sector amid unusual weather events this summer.
New home prices in 70 cities fell faster, down -5.3%in August, after a -4.9% fall in the previous month. It was the 14th straight month of decrease and the steepest pace since May 2015, despite Beijing's extensive measures to reverse a downturn in the property sector, such as trimming mortgage rates and reducing home buying costs.
Every one of those cities recorded a fall in these official stats for used houses. The largest was the -13% fall in Wuhan. When resales lose money it will be very hard to sell new ones.
So it will be no surprise that their August data shows new loan growth remains very subdued in what is extending to be unusual difficult trading conditions. Chinese banks extended +¥900 bln in new yuan loans in August, above a fifteen-year low of ¥260 bln in July, but less than the expected bounce-back. It is also the lowest value for an August month since 2015.
And it won't be a surprise to that August FDI was particularly weak, down more than -48% in the year to August from the same period in 2023.
We have noted the trend before, but the weak Chinese economy is driving a bond rally there. Yields fell to a new record low on Thursday, and state banks have been drafted in to sell some of their long-dated bonds to try and stem the rally. But until more confidence returns to the Chinese economy generally, it unlikely to work. If Beijing institutions don't have the firepower to move this market, it is unlikely the core SOE banks do either.
In a rare statement with the loan growth data release, the central bank indicated that new stimulus is on the way to shore up the economy. Late last week, President Xi exhorted his government to ensure the 5% growth target is reached this year. Xi's intervention came after widespread voices warned that the 5% target was probably out of reach.
Coming at a time that isn't convenient for their economy, China is going into an end-of-summer period of public holidays. First there is the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, September 15 to 17, a total of 3 days off - but where Saturday, September 14 has been declared a workday. That will be followed by the seven-day "National Day" holiday from October 1 to 7. But that is being offset by making it full workdays on September 29 (Sunday) and October 12 (Saturday). One consequence of all this time off is that foreign travel is expected to boom. Visa-free policies and lower air fares is seeing the number of Chinese booking holidays abroad surge.
In India, officials there are chaffing over creditor moves in the US to put Byjus into bankruptcy. Indian officials have arbitrarily removed the creditors who petitioned the US court that ruled on bankruptcy, from the creditor processes in India. It might get quite messy.
In Europe, July industrial production (real) was flat from June in the EU, but lower in the wider Euro Area. From a year ago the declines are -2.2% and -1.7% respectively.
In Russia, their central bank increased its policy rate by +100 bps to 19% in a move markets did not expect. They are battling high inflation in a war economy that is distorting faster than their central bank is comfortable with.
And in the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey increased for a 2nd month in September, to its highest level since May. This was above what was expected. Both current conditions and expectations improved, topping estimates. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead declined to 2.7% but those for the next five years rose marginally to 3.1%.
You will recall that the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate two weeks ago, by -25 bps to 4.25%. But now the talk there is of much bigger cuts at their next meeting on October 24 (NZT). Maybe -50 bps, or more.
And in Australia, the trend well established here is showing up there. Sharply more listings, lower auction clearance rates, and falling prices. Now observers are saying it has turned into a buyers market, especially in the eastern States.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.66% and unchanged from Saturday. The key 2-10 yield curve is +7 bps positive. Their 1-5 curve inversion is little-changed at -60 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is still at -138 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 3.82% and down -5 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.07%, and down -3 bps and historically low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now just on 4.13% and unchanged from Saturday.
The price of gold will start today at US$2578/oz and down -US$4 from its Saturday new all-time high.
Oil prices are softer by -50 USc at US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we have dipped slightly to 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.3, and unchanged from Saturday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,791 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.7%.
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68 Comments
Good one for PDK for a Monday morning
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-number-of-earths-needed-for-differ…
We'd need 5 Earth's for everyone to live like an American. But if we all lived like Indians, we're sussed.
Given the nature of how wage costs shift jobs from the developed to developing world, maybe capitalism will resolve our resource shortage problems for us.
maybe capitalism will resolve our resource shortage problems for us
Check back in a decade from now (perhaps less) and India will be consuming at an unsustainable rate as well, considering the pace its economy is industrialising at.
Also, the exodus of productive jobs from the West didn't stop us from consuming resources. We create crappy jobs to keep the populace occupied and pump cheap debt to maintain the false economies.
"We create crappy jobs to keep the populace occupied and pump cheap debt to maintain the false economies."
A better way to look at is that the developed world creates 'cheap debt' with quite a bit being pumped into developing countries (albeit with considerable ticket clipping along the way). A good example of this is China. Their standard of living has been dramatically raised over the last 30-40 years.
Cheers for the gunpowder tech guys. We'll use it to hold your head down, humiliate and subjugate you for a century or two. Then when you've had enough, we'll give you a loan, and ourselves a pat on the back.
No, wait, you're catching up too fast. Have a tariff instead.
"In this graphic, we’ve visualized data from the Global Footprint Network to see the number Earths required to sustain a world population" except the graphic doesn't match the data. We should be living like New Zealanders, not Indians.
"COUNTRIES WITH BIOCAPACITY RESERVE
- New Zealand 53%
COUNTRIES WITH BIOCAPACITY DEFICIT
- United States -110%
- India -200%"
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-number-of-earths-needed-for-differ…
If world lived like New Zealander's they would live within their biocapacity reserve, not beyond it like India. We manage to do that and still feed an additional 40 million people. Go kiwi!
So relax, and enjoy the day, rather than posting baseless wide eyed drivel about punters being paid to post on interest.co.nz.
If we are feeding 40 million people so why do we have such a large trade and current account deficit? Exports are only 24% of GDP (85 B NZD) and a big chunk is created through tourism exports and exporting logs, goods nobody can eat. That feeding 40 million statement is just a myth created by the agricultural lobby to protect their interests.
We have a current account deficit because we run a massive welfare state and there is bugger all margin in food production. We are worlds largest exporter of dairy products, 2nd largest sheep meat exporter and primary industry makes up 82% of our merchandisable exports. Are you suggesting we can eat all of this food ourselves?
You can learn about our food exports here.
https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-intelligence/situa…
Big Trouble in Little China.
It was inevitable. Even so, people looked at me strangely when I said back in 2018/2019 it would all come crashing down about now.
I guess the big question is to what extent Xi’s policies have brought this on? My answer would be that it would have happened anyway, but his approaches have accelerated it
I think Audaxes got banned after commenting in this article.
https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/129494/our-soldiers-are-getting-b…
Yes, ultimately the Chinese Communist Party lacks legitimacy. When the money stops flowing then public outrage quickly rises to a revolutionary pitch.
During COVID the CCP was forced to do a very quick about face when protests turned violent and revolutionary in many cities. When this sort of thing happens in places like France, it never really crosses the boundaries because people have the power to vote out the govt. In authoritarian countries it gets explosive.
Many mainland Chinese are proud of the accomplishments of their country but when you talk to them about the govt most are deeply cynical.
CCP members have a lot to lose personally following a regime change. If it comes to it then war would be a welcome distraction for the masses.
One of the things that most surprised me about China was the general lack of Chinese flags. Very few locations had them flying proudly, I thought they would be flying everywhere.
The only exception that sticks out in my mind was that most buildings on The Bund in Shanghai had a flag flying on the rooftop. Otherwise it was quite rare to see a flag
Yeah, if you want excessive flag displays go to France and esp. the US. Flags on lapels, bags, vehicles, most rooms of government offices, I get it, they love their flag, but in any other country it would be considered kinda creepy.
In the countryside in China the houses have a five star rating system that's given by the local Party committee. 5 stars is tops and means you area is clean, kids go to school etc. 1 star means you aren't playing ball. Recently this has been replaced by new social credit score, that may one day be tied to the digital currency (take note people)
Turns out "go woke, go broke" is bollocks as most of the culture war narratives are.
https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/news/global-first-study-proving-progressive-ad…
It's problematic having hard and fast rules.
Wokiness works to make people feel better about consumer choices.
It works less well when it's being rammed down our throats in media, refer most recent Marvel/Star Wars/LOTR projects.
Interestingly, the demographic most up for grabs in the US elections are white zoomer/millennial males. The democratic party almost totally excludes them as a group they're promoting that they work for.
Maybe, but the company that owns Budweisier owns a tonne of other beer brands, and they are doing just fine overall. It isn't like America will boycott beer.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/budweiser-owner-posts-annual-sales-fall…
https://wyomingllcattorney.com/Blog/Everything-Owned-by-Anheuser-Busch-…
It's less about the actual rainbow crossing and more about the mentality to put the energy into it in the first place.
In 2024, most people are generally tolerant of whatever anyone else is into so long as it's not harming someone. But celebrating what flavour of genital friction people are into like it's an achievement, vs half a day to recognize life and limb sacrifice, is a fairly strange order of priority.
In 2024, most people are generally tolerant of whatever anyone else is into so long as it's not harming someone.
Have you been reading the news?
NZ First, the coalition partner in the current NZ government, wants people to be fined for using the wrong toilets, and wants to outlaw unisex toilets. Primarily because of popular anti-trans rhetoric.
Multiple rainbow crossings in NZ have been attacked with paint in the last year or so.
We have anti-trans people leaders holding public meetings from overseas, and other anti-trans meeting happening fairly regularly, like the Unsilenced event a few months back https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/22-05-2024/fear-hate-and-a-putrid-ste… .
You can argue 'most people', but there definitely is an active culture war going on and the opposing side has influence in the current government.
I try really hard not to, particularly about anything to do with the culture wars.
OK, good to hear you are above it all.
But celebrating what flavour of genital friction people are into like it's an achievement, vs half a day to recognize life and limb sacrifice, is a fairly strange order of priority.
Oh.
I posted a study which disproved one of the common narratives that people peddle on here, namely "go woke, go broke".
It doesn't really require discussion. For those that peddled that misinformation, read the study, understand reality and accept they were wrong. I wasn't expecting a thread, that was you arguing against facts.
But celebrating what flavour of genital friction people are into like it's an achievement, vs half a day to recognize life and limb sacrifice, is a fairly strange order of priority.
Strawman fallacy, and a common culture war tactic. ANZAC day has nothing to do with gay pride.
It was only in 2013 that same sex couples could marry and adopt children. And before 1993 you could legally discriminate against gay people. Before 1986, males creating genital friction on other males was illegal. This is not ancient history for those affected. Some still had homosexual convictions on their criminal record up until 2018. Imagine having to disclose that every time you apply for a job or leave the country. They are concerned that society might easily go back to how it was, and the celebrations and marches are partly about fighting back against those who are actively trying to take society back.
Just because it doesn't affect you, doesn't mean it isn't an important issue for others.
This discussion is obviously going nowhere, so I will end with this.
If I imagine a reverse world where heterosexual activity was outlawed, and heterosexuality was treated with disdain in society, I know I would be pissed off for a long time afterwards, and would do everything I could to fight against those who are trying to take society back there. I can see where they are coming from, and won't begrudge them how many days they choose to associate with their cause. It doesn't affect me as I don't partake in any pride based events.
Don't make logical fallacy based arguments against gay events and then try to act as if you are above the culture war. Have some self awareness.
This discussion is obviously going nowhere, so I will end with this.
It's probably not going where you wanted it to. Up to you whether you want to continue it or not, no need to declare it over.
Have some self awareness.
Like assuming anyone would continuously make noises to push their wants and beliefs?
My interest isn't about the alphabet people vs "normies". It's about growing tendencies to push virtue via identity. I try not to judge as best as possible, because I'm not a strong believer in free will, but the conduct of someone's character is of more value to me than whatever signals they're wanting to push out. An inordinate amount of effort doing the latter is often a red flag.
infuriating that everyone still reports on retail sales like its a bellweather for consumption, when it measures only goods consumption and restaurant services. They released a new data series tracking retail consumption for services and with consumption pivoting away from goods and towards services you'd think it be relevant to report on both...
Not just south island, national storage is 103.6% of mean storage for this time of year.
https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/week…
Yes, Lake Taupo is fed by a number of other hydros above it and the Waikato River hydro lakes below it. At this time of year, the North Island has risen from 76% to 82% of capacity, so it is still low. The problem with Taupo is it operates in a very narrow range of levels so requires very careful operation and cant just be filled and lowered like a remote mountain dam.
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