Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news markets see a cooling US labour market in signals ahead of this weekend's August non-farm payrolls report.
But first, US mortgage applications rose by an insignificant +1.6% from the previous week in the last week of August, a low and stable situation. They are now -4% lower than the soft year-ago levels. Their benchmark 30 year fixed home loan interest rate slipped slightly to 6.35% and its lowest since May 2023.
(Yesterday, we mistakenly reported US retail sales from two weeks ago, up +5.0% at physical stores from a year ago. The actual result from this metric for last week was very much more positive, up +6.3% from the same week a year ago, its best rise since the end of 2022 when the very low year-ago base boosted results. This current result is actually quite impressive.)
US exports hit their highest level ever in July at US$267 bln. Imports rose too, but not to a record high. Their full trade deficit rose to -US$79 bln but that was well short of records set during the pandemic. This deficit continues to quite small in relation to US GDP.
US factory orders were solid in July. New orders rose by +5% from the previous month, above market expectations of a 4.7% increase. Year-on-year they are up +3.8%. Better, new orders rose by +9.8% for durable goods, lifted by transportation equipment which was up more than a third.
But there was a sharper-than-expected drop in July job openings in the US. The number of job openings fell by -237,000 to just under 7.7 mln in July from a downwardly revised 7.9 mln in June. That is the lowest level since January 2021 and below market forecasts of 8.1 mln. This is a first real sign of a cooling labour market there, although the new order data may make that a temporary dip. This is the data that has the financial market's attention today.
Meanwhile, the US Fed's Beige Book survey for August painted a modest picture of the American economy but with the balance of opinion that things are picking up from the current stable positions. This survey found little evidence of labour market stress.
Canadian exports came in little-changed in July, holding the higher levels first achieved in mid 2022.
And as expected, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by -25 bps earlier today to 4.25%, it's third consecutive cut, saying excess supply in the Canadian economy continued to put downward pressure on inflation there which is now running at 2.5%, its lowest level in more than three years.
In China, the Caixin services PMI eased a bit but is still expanding. Incoming new business and activity remained in growth, with export business rising at a faster rate in August. Meanwhile capacity pressures were still evident, but firms reduced staffing levels amid cost concerns.
Bloomberg is reporting that China is considering cutting interest rates on as much as NZ$8.5 tln of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system. To do that, financial regulators have proposed reducing rates on outstanding mortgages nationwide by a total of about 80 bps, part of a package that includes an accelerated timeline for when mortgages become eligible for refinancing, according to people familiar with the matter. The first cut may come in the next few weeks while the second move would take effect at the beginning of next year, said the people, asking not to be identified, they reported.
The EU said producer prices are now edging lower in July from a year ago, helped by the falling cost of imported energy.
Think rent controls are a viable option for rental affordability issues? Most Dutch renters would not agree as rent controls force renters into some very difficult situations.
Australia said its GDP was +1.5% higher in its June year after a smaller-than-expected +0.2% expansion in the June quarter. "Helping" keep it positive was record federal government spending on the public payroll and on the healthcare sector.
Meanwhile an August survey of the Australian manufacturing sector was particularly grim. The Ai Group Industry Index dropped sharply by 11.3 points to -30.8 in August, further deepening the contraction that has persisted for two years.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.77% and down another -7 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion has evaporated today. Their 1-5 curve inversion is much less at -67 bps. But their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now inverted by -144 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 3.99% and up +1 bp. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.15% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now just on 4.24% and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.
Wall Street has stayed lower with the S&P500 down -0.5%. Overnight, European markets were all down with London down -0.3% and Paris down a full -1.0%. Tokyo ended its Wednesday trade down an eye-watering -4.2%. Hong Kong fell -1.1% and Shanghai fell -0.7%. Singapore was down its own -1.1%. The ASX200 dropped -1.9% in its Wednesday trade. But the NZX50 outshone all others with a +0.2% rise and the only gain in the markets we follow.
The price of gold will start today up a minor +US$2 from yesterday at US$2493/oz.
Oil prices have held from yesterday's lower level at just under US$70/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still at just on US$73.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at 61.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are nearly +20 bps higher at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are -20 bps lower at 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.9 and down -20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$57,910 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. However, volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.
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22 Comments
Adjustment to US March nonfarm employment counts: -818K (30% down, 0.5% of the total). Far lower than estimated.
https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revisio…
So in China the CCP has the power to force its banks to lower mortgage interest rates if not quite across the board but nonetheless, substantially. That rather encapsulates the persona/ modus operandi of a totalitarian state doesn’t it. Extraordinary really, when you think about, how a billion or so of a population can be so easily be both manipulated and regimented.
...China is considering cutting interest rates on as much as NZ$8.5 tln of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system. To do that, financial regulators have proposed reducing rates on outstanding mortgages nationwide by a total of about 80 bps, part of a package that includes an accelerated timeline for when mortgages become eligible for refinancing...
A hair cut on mortgages? That's pretty desperate stuff to try to save the housing market.
"That's pretty desperate stuff to try to save the housing market."
Um. No. That would be a completely wrong conclusion.
What they are doing is ensuring people have more money to spend on other things thereby redirecting monies away from lenders (who obviously already have more money than they know what to do with) and into all the other areas of the economy.
(We should so lucky to have a RB that understood such things.)
From the Bloomberg Article on Dutch Rent Controls ...
"The Netherlands has the highest proportion of rent-controlled homes in Europe, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
About a quarter of them are owned by private landlords, with the rest belonging to housing associations that are similar to co-ops.
Before the new law came into effect, four-fifths [80%] of the country’s 3 million rental properties were subject to controls, and the law raised that to 96%, according to the housing ministry.
The measure caps rents on about 2.5 million homes at €880 ($980) a month for households earning less than €52,671. The rest of the properties covered by the law have a maximum rent of €1,158 a month; though they have no specific income requirements, they’re aimed at families with modest salaries."
So apples and oranges when compared to NZ's, right?
And the article goes on ...
"To keep up with population growth, the Netherlands needs about 100,000 new dwellings a year, but over the past decade it’s built an average of two-thirds that many. "
Methinks Bloomberg is stretching here. Due to high interest rates and COVID, building worldwide has slowed. But somehow this is due to a law past only recently? Fairly typical 'free market' bias?
Edit: As someone who has lived in the Netherlands and has friends there - including architects, the real problem is much like ours was in that their local governments created zoning rules that restricted supply. Great for existing owners - not so good for anyone else - and prices steadily rose above wages.
Huh? It's covering 96% of rental properties. The problem with rent controls is they ignore price signals. The approach is 'the price is too high, so we'll lower it' rather than 'why is the price so high?'.
The price being so high is likely similar to here. Minimum price is too high due to high fixed regulatory costs (incl. time from investment idea, through consent, to built product). They probably have artificially tight zoning conditions too, ensuring that not enough housing is built where people want it.
"To keep up with population growth, the Netherlands needs about 100,000 new dwellings a year, but over the past decade it’s built an average of two-thirds that many. The shortfall has driven up prices for unregulated flats by a third since 2012. With their properties pushed into the regulated market under the new system, many owners are choosing to sell them. "
Of course they're choosing to sell them. The cost of capital demands it. 1,158 a month is 13,896 a year, at a 5% gross rental yield your dwelling's max value is 277,920. Anything worth more than that becomes a bad investment, ergo you sell and invest your capital elsewhere.
Maybe investors need a 3-4% yield in the Netherlands, I'm not familiar, but the key takeaway should be clear. Restricting the maximum price rental services can be sold for, decreases the supply of rental services sold. If you want more rental stock, to meet a shortage, you do not do this. If you want the poor to have secure housing at a reasonable price, you do not do this. The only reasons you would do this, is if you want to win political points cynically from uninformed voters. Populism, plain and simple.
"Restricting the maximum price rental services can be sold for, decreases the supply of rental services sold. If you want more rental stock, to meet a shortage, you do not do this. If you want the poor to have secure housing at a reasonable price, you do not do this."
This is rubbish. What you're arguing is that the business expense a landlord chooses to incur when setting up a rental property should be allowed to set the rental cost, and renters just need to suck it up. If landlords are paying too much for their properties that is a business choice they are making, and if the returns they get do not make those cost worthwhile then that is just the market. Housing however should be considered a basic right, and must absolutely be affordable at the median wage (max 25 - 30% of the take home pay for a whole home) level without subsidies. If a landlord can't cut it there they shouldn't be in the business. People should be in a position to be able to choose to buy or rent, not be trapped in a renting situation that bleeds their resources so much they can't save to buy.
"To keep up with population growth, the Netherlands needs about 100,000 new dwellings a year"
Natural population growth is pretty low in the Netherlands so much of those 100,000 new dwellings will be to support immigration demand. What you are effectively saying Murray is that no-one should be allowed to immigrate to the Netherlands unless they're able to buy a house to live in.
When these rentals are sold who is buying them - either owner occupiers or other investors. Unless you find another investor willing to take a lower yield then the price will fall to the lower of what provides a good yield or the premium an owner occupier will pay for long-term security. Either way, it keeps housing affordable.
Note: house prices still rise and fall based on mortgage rates as this affects the affordability calculation above.
Yes it means that some people will be able to buy a house (apartment) for a lower price than they otherwise would. But that doesn't help most of the target demographic - which as the article points out - are not in a position to buy. Instead you get examples like the lady in the article who are kicked out because the owner is selling but unable to find a new place to rent due to competition for cheap rentals and landlords selling up.
The situation in the Netherlands isn't dissimilar to NZ (and much of Europe). From the article:
"For landlords preparing to sell, the market is hot. The median sale price of a home in the Netherlands was €468,000 in the second quarter, up 7.2% from the previous quarter, according to real estate trade group NVM, the biggest jump in almost three decades. But those prices will leave most middle-income families out of the market, according to real estate research firm Calcasa. Buyers today would need to earn at least €95,000 a year—more than double the median income—to afford the average home."
Firstly, see my point above about the restriction on supply. Sound familiar? Secondly, their Boomers are, like ours, looking to transfer from an asset class that carries some risk & cost, to asset classes that diversified, have global spread, and require little to no work. So now is a good time to sell for them. And isn't such a bad time for our Boomers either (although a year or two ago would have been better).
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