sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

US jobs growth not as strong as first reported; Fed minutes confirm likely September cut; China threatens the EU on dairy trade; UST 10yr 3.78%; gold holds but oil softer; NZ$1 = 61.6 USc; TWI-5 = 69.4

Economy / news
US jobs growth not as strong as first reported; Fed minutes confirm likely September cut; China threatens the EU on dairy trade; UST 10yr 3.78%; gold holds but oil softer; NZ$1 = 61.6 USc; TWI-5 = 69.4

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news China's tit-for-tat retaliation against the EU might move dairy prices in New Zealand's favour - for a while at least.

But first up today, we need to note that the American labour market expansion wasn't as strong as originally reported. They have revised their data down for the year to March. Previously the data showed a strong +3.775 mln expansion in new jobs that year to 158.0 mln people employed. Now they say it rose +2.957 mln to 157.2 mln. So a +1.9% expansion rather than the +2.4% expansion. Still very healthy but not as strong as originally reported.

The US Fed minutes for their July meeting were released earlier today and they showed some policymakers saw “a plausible case” for cutting rates by 25 bps at that meeting, though they ultimately held off. This bolsters the view that the Fed is about to cut in September, but something well priced in to financial markets. The gold price seems to be the main elements showing gains.

After the prior week's strong gain, there was an equally sharp fall in new mortgage applications in the US last week, down -10% from that prior week. This came even though mortgage interest rates slipped again to 6.5% for the benchmark 30-year fixed loan. That level is its lowest since May 2023.

Also falling are yields on new US Treasury bond issues. Today the very well supported UST 20yr bond auction delivered a median yield of 4.10%, compared to the 4.41% yield at the equivalent event a month ago. These falling yields are turbocharging investor gains.

Across the Pacific, China has set in motion some trade tariff retaliation on the EU after Brussels called out a set of subsidies by Beijing for cars and pork products, and called out its human rights failings. China is targeting the EU dairy products, most of which come from Germany, France, the Netherlands and Ireland. EU dairy exports to China were valued at €1.7 bln last year, far less than New Zealand's trade. EU exports of dairy products have been easing lower recently, as has NZ's trade, mainly because of the rise of the local Chinese dairy industry. It isn't clear that this move will have any impact on dairy prices in the short term.

There is probably a year to go before the Chinese actually apply their retaliation. But there could well be informal blocking at the border - just as we saw against Australian barley and wine, before the formal clamps went on. The Chinese move against the EU will effectively work as a warning to New Zealand to toe China's line.

High debt levels are forcing China's giant high-speed rail operator to sharply raise prices to contain a squeeze flowing from its NZ$1.4 tln debt built up when China's infrastructure stimulus programs were in full swing. Now users will have to pay for that - even though they are facing a broad economic slowdown again.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.78% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is slightly shallower at -15 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is little-changed at -77 bps. But their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now at -155 bps and a deeper inversion. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 3.92% and down -4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is back up +3 bps at 2.16%. Beijing is struggling to keep it from falling. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now just on 4.20% and down -4 bps.

Wall Street is slightly firmer with the S&P500 up +0.3% in its Wednesday trade. Overnight European markets were also up, by about +0.5%, except London which was largely unchanged. Yesterday Tokyo closed its Wednesday session down -0.3%. But Hong Kong was down -0.7% and Shanghai down -0.4%. Singapore was up a mere +0.1%. The ASX ended its Wednesday session up +0.2%, but the NZX50 fell -0.4%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$2 from yesterday at US$2509/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$1.50 at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$75.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today up almost another +20 bps from yesterday at 61.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps too at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 55.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.4 and up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,898 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday in its recent yoyo pattern. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: CoinDesk

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

139 Comments

Are there to be revisions to the revisions?....nothing would surprise

Up
0

However with the revision on the job data one should then assume that those numbers infer better productivity?

Up
0

Will depend on the hours worked....and are those statistics any more reliable?

Up
0

And should we trust an article written by Tyler Durden?

Up
1

Can we trust anything?....and we are in no position to gather the information for ourselves.

Up
3

Sure, but my point is that if someone names themselves with a pseudonym  of the anarchist anti-hero character from Fightclub, I have even less reason to believe them.

Up
0

And yet he(?) has been highlighting the employment stats anomalies for quite some time....and lo and behold!

Up
0

Clown territory

Luxon telling LG to 'do the basics'. 

Then telling them they'll benefit from growth? 

Brilliant. Corporate moonshine at its finest. 

LG are facing an increasing load, because of entropy. A word we are going to hear more of, over time. We actually need a new model; Luxon only has the old playbook - which says: socialize costs, privatize profits. Worked until it didn't. 

More debt is inevitable, who holds it? is the question. Can it be repaid? Increasingly, no. 

 

Up
18

Worse National leader in living memory

Up
16

He was put there by a voting populace kept ignorant by the media. 

They still peddle - and laud - GROWTH. 

Unchallenged.

So the average punter still thinks that all you need is money, which you can 'make'. Sadly, it doesn't work like that, and the screws are coming on exponentially. So LG and central G, will be forever chasing their tails; there will never be 'enough money' from here on in. 

Notice he wants - on ideological grounds, no other - to eliminate all reference to 'wellbeing'. Makes one wonder who we're here for.....

 

Up
10

He was put there by a voting populace kept ignorant by the media. 

Not kept ignorant, gravitating to their own interests.

You and I could start a "we're all screwed", evidence based party, calling for an end to consumerism and a return to making your own manure based compost and wearing the same undies for 10 years.

Wouldn't rate our chances. The good people want the same, or more of whatever lifestyle they currently have.

Up
11

Exactly. PDK often tells us the science of physics only deals in what is possible. I have never heard him give a course of action that is politically possible.

Up
10

Yup, as I've said, it's a human problem.

Ever tried convincing someone to stop smoking/exercise/lose weight based on the facts? An individual struggles doing that themselves if they want, let alone convince someone else.

Now, imagine trying to do that, but basically over how and why people are going about most of their lives.

Up
5

As Pa1nter has said it is a human problem, but PDk will say he knows that. The issue is as you indicate politics. Everything is connected, and the only possible way for us to save the species and planet is politics. I have an inkling that most if not all politicians believe they are the smartest people in the room if not the planet. They also believe that most people do not have the intellect to understand or cope with the things they deal with. the end result is that they perpetually dumb things down when talking, through the media to the public. Unfortunately many in the media prove their beliefs correct (as far as the media is concerned) and do not analyse what they are being told. Every layer in a communication chain is a filter too, so in the end what we get told if not an outright lie, is pretty close, with just granules of truth mixed in. 

PDK's problem is he's buried in the raw data and knows the truth in detail from a physics perspective. But politics cannot cope with that level of detail without losing most people. So PDK comes across as an extremist. He knows the problem, he know what needs to happen to fix it, but he cannot detail how to get that fix put in place while taking the population along on the ride. That's what politics does. But I don't think even Chloe knows that.

Up
5

Psychology or science, which is the most necessary to enact change though? You have the psychology, with the incorrect belief in exponential growth which leads to an eventual collapse in population, and necessity to change psychology for survival. On the other hand you have the Science outlining the necessity for change. Do we focus on changing minds, or do we legislate and enforce change from data? Either way is difficult with such a connected world, as it is a global effort.

Up
2

Well, we have more and more data, and more access to it.

Things look to be getting worse.

I can't see how even more science is going to change things.

Up
3

You can't legislate against the psychology. The voters just pick the next fool to retract the legislation.

Up
0

You have legislation to dissuade behaviour, and while it may not outright prevent it from occurring, the mass effect is enough. Historically society has been a miniscule proportion of the population hoarding a lot of the wealth, power and control of the narrative until the rich were appropriately taxed and regulated to disrupt corruption allow the middle class to emerge and prosper. We have gone backwards over the last 40-50years further and further towards the old ways with the wealth gap growing by the day. History always repeats itself

Up
0

Perhaps a bit unfair Beanie, PDK has often stated that stopping immigration would help.  Even those wanting housing to be more affordable and more job opportunities (read on the job training offered) should see merit in this suggestion.

My read is that's perfectly politically possible, but the politicians charged with it have not actioned what they were voted in to do - looking at you NZF.

Up
0

Perhaps a bit unfair Beanie, PDK has often stated that stopping immigration would help.

I thought his message was pointed at the entire planet.

Although I guess if you restricted people from worse off places coming here, they're less likely to improve their living standards/consumption.

Up
0

I thought his message was pointed at the entire planet.

Often it has been Pa1nter, but he's certainly also commented on NZ specific issues and that stopping immigration would help as well. 

I agree with him.  Your second sentence highlights why, we have more available resources per capita before immigrants arrive than after sharing what is here with them post arrival.

Up
0

"there will never be 'enough money' from here on in" - had they not given $3 billion a year in tax cuts, that could have bought some seriously good infrastructure. 

Up
3

They could have planned some seriously good infrastructure 

Up
7

Yes we could give that  $3b....

..To nzta we could have 2 billion more cones and another potholey 30k/h highway.

...To kiwirail we could have new boat and no port for it.

- to some consultants to study yet another harbour crossing, bike lane or railway to nowhere.

- to someone who promises an underground rail for $3b in 3 years but actually needed $20b and 10 years. And to dig up our biggest city and kill the local businesses en route.

- To taurangas unelected council who would dig up the town center ... so noone can park or drive anywhere and th shops all have to close.. or build another noncompliance car park.. or even a shiny stadium .. even better an on demand personal loss making bus service.. seriously (no wait.. the ratepayersfund all that).

- to local govst to spend upgrading water (no wait.. they would need to divert most of it to build bus stops with garden roofs or to fund wards for each nationality and then complain they don't have any money

- to the health service who desperately need money to pay their multi tiered centralized management team. So they can slow their processes down some more and somehow hire even less front line staff.

Lolol.

 

Nah - i will take a tax cut. Buy myself a car to avoid crap public transport, pay private Healthcare coz dhbs suck, fly around to avoid the traffic jams and make sure I have off grid power and water infrastructure. Hopefully someone will invent cheaper personal drones so I don't need the crappy infrastructure at all.

Up
7

To deliver $3b of worthwhile infrastructure 

They'd have to spend $30b

Up
3

Yip. But the rich would pocket $27b of that.. they have needs too you know. Helipad and private jets don't grow on trees... us peasants just wouldn't understand.

 

Up
6

They're just catering to a market.

Govt: we want safety!

Industry: here, here's a sign, is that good enough?

Govt: hmmm, is there something more safer than a sign?

Industry: we could have someone hold the sign

Govt: what if the person holding the sign gets hit by a car?

Industry: we can rent you a robot sign and lay out 5 kilometers of cones either side.

Govt: sounds good, safety achieved!

Up
1

True that. 

 

Up
0

Who are we here for? As worker drones for the system. Communism and capitalism have more in common than cheerleader fundamentalists care to comprehend.

Up
4

Hate to say it PDK but this is where one dictator can be better than the choice between a bunch of clowns in a democracy. You have to vote, there is limited options and I think you would tell us it doesn't matter who we vote for anyway because the train is only going in one direction if it wants to stay on the rails. 

Up
2

Problem with dictators is you can't get rid of them without violence. They spend their tenure cementing their position with an impenetrable security apparatus, while grooming their dysfunctional spawn for the throne. It has always been thus and always will be. 

Up
0

You rate Ship-wreck Shipley 

Up
1

Oh god she is so bad still

Up
8

He's worse, much worse. 

Up
4

And yet still better than what Labour and the Greens offered?

Up
6

Not really no. 

Up
1

Luxon wants NZ cities to just be basic, no frills. Across the ditch they are building all sorts of frills.

Will there be any young people left in NZ? Only the ones too lazy to leave?

Up
3

Luxon is doing the good work of adapting to the reality we are not rich.   There is a fictionthat if the people can't afford things the government can.

Up
11

Had he not given $20 a week tax cut we could afford all sorts of things. 

Luxon's like one of those CEOs that comes in and slashes all spending, guts the company, then sells it off with a better profit margin but no future.

Up
16

100%.

A leader with no vision or ambition beyond 100 days 

Up
8

A leader with no ability to execute can't make, or stick to time-frames.

Up
6

The boomers screwed us.

Let's get a 50+ year loan on something that'll never pay for itself.

Damn we're good.

Up
3

You could almost say Luxon is doing Gods work....if you had a religious bent?

Up
4

Stun the public with the sheer volume and inanity of their actions appears to be their strategy.

Up
11

"More debt is inevitable...Can it be repaid? "

Reality is we dont ever repay debt. You let it inflate away.

Can it be serviced is the more relevant question. Which is Yes , as long as interest rates are low enough. Slam it all on the tab and look through the inflation.

However your point is correct ... Councils like to use "inter-generational equity" as the basis for passing costs down the line ... overlooking a backlog of under maintenance.

When you cant afford to maintain the infrastructure you have, adding further infrastructure is clearly a plan that requires you to divorce your mind from reality

 

Up
2

When the debt becomes too large (arguably a point we've passed, globally) then even zero rates dont do the job of maintaining serviceability...then debt destruction is required (deflation)...the question then becomes how that destruction occurs.

Up
2

Indeed. In a system that requires ever more Debt ultimately there is too much Debt chasing too little (produced) stuff.

Hyperinflation or default.

Up
1

You do pay it back, paid all mine back. The debt pile increases due to inflation and an increased population taking out even more debt. Peoples mortgages are now three times higher than what I took out so the current outstanding dept pile is probably quadruple what it was in 2003.

Up
1

The debt pile IS inflation....and the problem is in aggregate.

Servicing that pile is a function of output...however if you continue to grow that debt pile the constraint becomes time....if you earn say $10 million (choose any figure) in a lifetime of work you are unable to repay even $10,000,001 in that period...end result, default. The interest rate becomes irrelevant.

You can try to extend the limit by increasing population but even that is constrained by output....aka productivity.

Up
5

Well put. 

Up
1

And the entire system comes crashing down when the number of humans doesn't keep increasing exponentially, adding the current pressures with the great retirement of the population bulge. Suddenly mass change is needed structurally to adapt, but they keep beating the same old drums and expecting the same results...

Up
3

You may very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment...

Up
0

The growing exodus comes amid slow economic growth, high living costs and high property prices that prevent many young New Zealanders from getting on the property ladder.

The flight of our youth is international news and the primary cause correctly identified as being due to the housing market.

https://www.dw.com/en/new-zealand-emigration-soars-amid-economic-woes/a…

Up
14

It’s nothing new, and nothing changes

I went to Aus in 2011, mainly cos of the cost of housing / living 

and to preempt the usual ‘why did you come back?’ - it was solely due to a family health matter

 

Up
0

The Labour Party shot us in the foot over housing costs.  The explosion in house prices has been New Zealand s greatest social disaster.

Up
17

Bollocks, bollocks and thrice bollocks. 

Greed shot us in the foot over housing costs. 

And no, it hasn't. The pursuit of GROWTH, within a bounded System, has been our greatest social disaster.

The housing ponzi was just an inevitable repercussion; nothing else big enough to absorb the amount of issued proxy (debt, aka money) needed to keep the chimera going. Both political hues are guilty - both peddle GROWTH - except wellbeing was an Overton-Window-constrained attempt to move in the needed direction. Whereas this lot are heading backwards over a cliff. 

Up
11

It's too complex for some people to understand, much easier to just blame the pretty lady. 

Up
9

Didn’t know Chris was FTM

Up
2

Pretty in the equestrian world?

 

Up
9

 "...nothing else big enough to absorb the amount of issued proxy (debt, aka money) needed to keep the chimera going. Both political hues are guilty...."

And that is the elephant in the room....if there is nothing else big enough and it has been pushed to the limit (or beyond), where to from here?

If something cannot go on forever it will stop. 

Up
2

I have been voting against the in power government at every election for more than 40 years because of the rapidly increasing house prices during that time period shafting young peoples lives. No it's not just the last Labour government.

Up
0

I doubt that is the primary cause, its obviously part of the equation. Housing is not particularly cheap in Aus either.

I suspect having the old person's party elected here and no longer over there is also part of the equation. And of course wages is a massive drawcard. 

Up
0

Does the average 20-29 year old even know who's in power and what they do or don't stand for?

It's a pretty basic equation, we had shut borders for a couple years, everything got expensive, job markets tightening, and our neighbors have more money and have drawn kiwis over for decades.

No government would significantly alter that.

Up
2

"Does the average 20-29 year old even know who's in power and what they do or don't stand for" I'm pretty sure they knew who Ardern was. She probably represented a lot more hope than the old bald guy does. They do tend to care about things like environment, race relations etc these days. 

Everyone is different. When I went on an OE, my reason was just that NZ was too boring, which is still I suspect the biggest reason. House prices are probably not a massive consideration for 20-29 year olds. 

Up
2

represented Hope ... oh God

Up
6

They talked a good game, and were adept at managing a crisis.

Great optics. But as actual agents of the sort of change most people would prefer (houses, better healthcare, etc), woeful.

Up
5

But as actual agents of the sort of change most people would prefer (houses, better healthcare, etc), woeful

Compared to who? The coalition approach is to say fuck you on all those things. No more state housing build when now is the perfect time to build state housing.

Healthcare is bad, let's cut funding and jobs from healthcare to help. And let's pit in charge the guy who oversaw Auckland Transport because *checks notes* he did such a great job?!?!!

Up
6

Compared to who? 

Compared to getting tangible results.

I can say Labour sucked at execution without being an advocate of the National party.

Up
9

No you CANNOT say that! You have to have a binary, tribal position!!!!

Up
2

Labour: I think you need a fence, I'll build you one. It'll take 9 months.

Me: Uhhh, ok, I guess.

*9 months later*

Me: hows the fence coming along?

Labour: Good, good. We changed the name of our fencing department to reflect all of our values. And we had another think about the fence, we've changed some rules about the nature of fencing. Just working through a revised design now. Oh, it'll be twice as much.

Me: You guys suck at fencing, not interested anymore.

Labour: But National wouldn't have even tried building you a fence

Me: I'm starting to prefer that no one did.

Up
7

Lol

Up
0

National: I think you need a fence. But you can't have one. 

You : Great. 

Up
1

My biggest problem with the previous government was that they blew a huge opportunity, given the electoral mandate they possessed.

Two big things stand out:

Housing: Kiwibuild was a disaster. Massive opportunity lost, and really it was just laziness that resulted in its failure. 

Tax: Chippy’s ‘captain’s call’ scuttling David Parker’s wealth tax

I also think the later lockdowns were diabolical.

Up
5

given the electoral mandate they possessed.

Yup, if a Labour party were ever going to pull off what they talk about aspiring to, they'll never have had a better opportunity.

There's a severe disconnect there that will require serious reinvention.

Up
4

They need a serious look in the mirror.

And it’s why I say ‘the left’ are a big part of the problem in terms of the growing influence of right-wing nutcases

Up
0

You forget that there had been such little oversight in spending by Labour that it was necessary to hard line and cutback somewhere. Look at Kianga Ora for example and the complete waste of buying property at or near the peak, and now backing down on many stalled builds due to costs blowing out so badly. With regards to healthcare, I'd rather see people held accountable for missing appointments as there is such gross wastage of specialist, MRI etc time from DNA's that could be better utilised by those that need it, it seems foolish to simply allow multiple DNA's and have 0 repercussions, when the implications could be saving lives from getting appointments, imaging and procedures done at the earliest stage.

Up
4

You forget that there had been such little oversight in spending by Labour

I'd actually say there was too much oversight, and just really poor consideration of planning and execution.

 

Up
0

I've heard some doozies from within KO back in 2021, and saying there was any oversight would be an overstatement.

Up
0

Literally on the day after one of the biggest private developers goes under for fraud or reckless practice you pull up public sector failures. So the public sector can't deliver efficiently and neither can the private sector. So maybe your expectation of what can be delivered needs adjusting. 

Up
0

Lowering expectation of accountability, service delivery and pragmatic decision making is accepting failure. We vote and expect delivery, that is not an unrealistic expectation, it is democracy. 

Up
0

House prices are probably not a massive consideration for 20-29 year olds. 

I'd tend to agree.

I'd put politics way down the list.

Up
0

It's a pretty basic equation, we had shut borders for a couple years, everything got expensive, job markets tightening

All these apply to Australia and yet they aren't flooding in to NZ

And yes, 20-29 year olds are aware of who is in power and what they stand for. The educated ones definitely are, which are the ones that are going. They were disgusted with the way people treated Jacinda, the misogyny and vitriol and how the opposition were leveraging anger and conspiracy to get into power. They are not stupid, this coalition is offering nothing for the younger generations. You can mock Jacinda for her be kind mantra and wokeness but here's the thing, that is what young people want to hear and are inspired by it.

You should go and ask a few about if they are interested in a govt

  • that demonises Maori,
  • attacks the people on the lowest rung of the ladder,
  • cuts benefits for those that are struggling, bows down to the interests of the super rich,
  • has no qualms about trashing the environment to make sure they can personally profit from selling whatever may still be left before they die,
  • talk about government over-reach and then tell democratically elected council's they are going to pass legislation to restrict what those council's are allowed to spend money on, against the wishes of the electorate that voted those council's in,
  • critique the previous govt for borrowing too much then borrow more,
  • roll back as many democratic checks and balances as possible and give unfettered power to a coupe of hand-picked MPs to approve mega roading, mining, aquaculture projects that will burden future generations with useless projects and unsustainable debt,
  • talk about cutting down state bureaucracy and then creating a whole new bureaucracy to cut bureaucracy
Up
5

All these apply to Australia and yet they aren't flooding in to NZ

They're complaining about the exact same thing.

They just don't have a wealthier, larger nation 4hrs away.

They were disgusted with the way people treated Jacinda, the misogyny and vitriol and how the opposition were leveraging anger and conspiracy to get into power

Do you think these people outnumber the ones who disliked her due to vaccine mandates (not passing opinion on the mandates, just public perception).

As for the rest of your list, those are all things some people won't like, but I wouldn't rate them as up there in the motivations of an average young person. If they were concerned about the environment, government corruption or race relations, Australia is definitely not going to be more appealing.

Up
8

"They're complaining about the exact same thing.

They just don't have a wealthier, larger nation 4hrs away."

Nor one they have free access to....but you have nailed it.

 

Up
1

You need to put aside your Jacinda fanboy worship for a minute. Labour under her watch delivered nothing. Nilch. Nada.

And Wokeness doesnt tighten the bolts on a pylon.

Your general point about younger generations being screwed over is valid but its not a recent thing , its an inevitable endpoint of years of reckless Ponzinomics and People ponzinomics.

The boomers lived through a bonanza of natural wealth per capita, threw a huge party, then cranked up the money printers/ immigration visas when resources started to kick back and turned up the House music so no one had to hear themselves think.

Trashing the environment IS what a economy is. If you want a standard of living, you must trash the resources available. When Shane Jones says he wants to rip up the ground, like it or not, he is actually just acknowledging the ugly truth. Meanwhile the Greens are sipping lattes in high priced urban wear, advocating for more people while lecturing about the horrors of consumption.

Unfortunately the lifestyle the young have been sold is now out of stock and the boomers are well deaf to any role in facilitating it.

 

Up
13

but she nudged child poverty.... wait a minute..

Up
14

It's all really indicative of a culture that now puts most of their appraisal in what someone's saying and how they present themselves

Rather than what they're doing

It'd be like calling up for a plumber and requesting one that shares your values. I don't really care, I want one that's good at plumbing.

Up
5

a la Calhoun's famous mice experiments ..

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/this-old-experiment-with-mice…

"Working with rats between 1958 and 1962, and with mice from 1968 to 1972, Calhoun set up experimental rodent enclosures at the National Institute of Mental Health’s Laboratory of Psychology. He hoped to learn more about how humans might behave in a crowded future.

"A select group of mice, which Calhoun called “the beautiful ones,” secluded themselves in protected places with a guard posted at the entry. They didn’t seek out mates or fight with other mice, wrote Will Wiles in Cabinet magazine in 2011, “they just ate, slept and groomed, wrapped in narcissistic introspection.”"

Up
0

Mmmm, there's a baseline level of narcissism humans inherit much as mice would.

But the intensity of it in humans can be amplified by societal and cultural norms.

I could tell it was getting bad

When the selling points for phones was on the quality of the camera facing the owner

Over the one pointing at the rest of the world

Up
5

They were disgusted with the way people treated Jacinda, the misogyny and vitriol and how the opposition were leveraging anger and conspiracy to get into power. They are not stupid

I know many 20-29year olds who left NZ for no such reason at all. For those I know they left because:

1./ They had their OE scuppered by lockdowns and got trapped in NZ for a couple of years
2./ They saw the dream of being able to own a home and have a family in NZ either wiped away by becoming so far out of reach, or realising they had to go overseas to earn a better wage then come back to afford this dream
3./ They saw the division between family and friends brought about by the previous governments overreach of powers and wanted to be as far away from that as possible

In summary, nothing whatsoever to do with any treatment of the former PM, and instead based on logic, reason and opportunity cost a.k.a financial sense. Young people aren't stupid, and they got told what they wanted to hear under Labour then saw 0 results and a worse off country so they left.  Not everything is politicised Agno.

Up
4

OK, well my reckons and your reckons are different so we'll have to leave it there until someone does a study on why they are leaving and why they left. 

1/ I agree but it doesn't explain the increase in numbers

2/ Agree but the ones I spoke to said it was because it was clear the coalition were going to reverse the very minimal housing affordability policies that Jacinda put in place

3/ never heard this before from any of them. 

Up
0

Wowee…hell of a revision…imagine explaining that lil recalc to the boss 😂

Oil prices already not too high, kiwi going good…should see some more downward change at the pump? 🤞

Up
4

Oil prices already not too high, kiwi going good

Same reaction at my water cooler about the Kiwi peso. Punching above our weight. Again. Like in the Olympics. 

I'm not sure I really understand the excitement. What am I missing here? Is it that symbolic to start chilling the Spumante?

Up
1

I'm not sure I really understand the excitement. What am I missing here?

You really can't comprehend why people are upbeat of news that the price of something many people spend thousands of dollars a year on looks to be dropping, and the currency they earn looks to be appreciating?

Nevermind of theories of where things may or may not end up, but the average person never really looks much further than a headline.

Up
3

"...upbeat of news that the price of something many people spend thousands of dollars a year on looks to be dropping..."

Precisely.

Prices falling is good ...unless it's anything property related, of course.

Up
3

You really can't comprehend why people are upbeat of news that the price of something many people spend thousands of dollars a year on looks to be dropping, and the currency they earn looks to be appreciating?

But the Kiwi peso is not appreciating. It's getting smoked in terms of purchasing power and when valued against gold. 

Up
8

It looks to be appreciating relative to oil.

The fact something else is improving in value more doesn't need to have any relevance.

Do you go through your life devoid of joy because someone else is doing it better/with more wealth?

How about if I thought you were mad for enjoying a donut, when the place next door sells a better one?

Up
2

Purely selfish (& probably very short sighted) excitement…do lots of driving with kids sports…if diesel goes down then I might be able to afford two bottles of Spumante this weekend 🙌😂

Up
1

Rumors about Kamala Harris ready to announce taxing unrealized capital gains at a rate of 25% are filtering through the internet. Taxing unrealized gains would mean Americans would owe taxes on the appreciation of their home every year. This would bankrupt the average family. 

This is what 'anything but Trump' has created. 

Thank heavens for the trash media who have exposed Kamala and her husband Doug Emhoff borrowing more than $13 million by refinancing a high-value real estate portfolio several times. No doubt this is done for tax optimization.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13669199/kamala-harris-doug-em…

Note: Discovered this taxation will only apply to people with net worth of $100m or more. Sounds like something the NZ Greens would like to bandy around (and possibly Jacinda Ardern / Robbo would have conjured up if they were still flavor of the month).   

Up
13

Daily Mail as source and internet rumours. You're better than that JC. 

And to correct your phrase:

This is what the Republicans and Trump have created with 'anything but Trump'. 

Up
12

I have no doubt Daily Mail are reporting the facts. They understand the risk of defamation. 

People don't impress me just because they read and trust Granny Herald and The Guardian.  

Up
11

I have no doubt Daily Mail are reporting the facts. They understand the risk of defamation. 

If you read the Daily Mail article, all it says is that they took out a mortgage to buy some property, those are the only facts reported. 

You added the bit about tax optimisation. And as for the internet rumours, rumours are best not to spread, I heard a rumour that Riverhead prices are about to explode.

Up
8

"I have no doubt Daily Mail are reporting the facts. They understand the risk of defamation. "

That's friggin' hilarious. They choose which facts to publish and leave out any that don't fit their narrative. 

Up
2

As do our local media - spinoff, RNZ, Listener - although maybe there's a touch of 'they don't know what they don't know'. Generally, I find a lot of  excuses which don't stack up. Followed by normal programmes. 

Up
2

Maybe check the water cooler today for some more gossip...? Discovered this taxation will only apply to people with net worth of $100m or more.  - sounds like a good policy to me as they only pay an effective tax rate of 8.2% currently.

Up
8

Don't know if you've ever watched Gary's economics on YouTube, but his theory is the only way to save anything is by much higher taxes on the Uber wealthy.

Up
1

Yes. I noted that above. So is USD100 million now the benchmark for HNWI? Will this apply to Nancy Pelosi? 

And what is the point? Anyone worth USD100 million should be capable of shifting capital offshore for tax purposes.  

And more importantly, federal income tax was originally targeted at only 1% of the population and the tax was only 1%. That changed over time.

 

Up
4

"And what is the point? Anyone worth USD100 million should be capable of shifting capital offshore for tax purposes."

And the government(s) can identify and legislate accordingly if the desire is there. 

Up
1

Next to no chance of that!

"Bayly says the register would add a small compliance burden to companies, and thus doesn't fit well with the package of measures to modernise the Companies Act....Bayly plans to work with ministerial colleagues with justice responsibilities to decide the best way forward for work towards a beneficial ownership register...."

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/129283/police-sfo-customs-service-m…

Up
2

Likely no, I agree though not impossible. If events transpire however there may be a recognition that something is better than nothing.

Up
0

And you are so ignorant to think that $100m limit won't come down over time... come on. What's a little bit of currency devaluation between friends, a $35T national debt in funded liabilities and massive account deficits in boom times is totally sustainable. 

Up
4

And you are so ignorant to think that $100m limit won't come down over time... come on.

Not sure if that was directed at me. If it were, carefully read because I alluded to this based on historical precedent. 

Up
1

The USA is screwed. Did you know the minimum wage there is like $7.25 and hour ? even worse the other day when I heard if you are in a job that gets tips its like $2.11 an hour WTF. People pushing for the living wage over there and its $25 an hour. They have a horribly balanced society over there.

Up
1

You can get over $20 an hr working fast food in California.

But that's California, you'd really want $40.

Up
0

Clearly their system is broken and its been broken for such a long time its now impossible to repair it. Just imagine what would happen if they cranked their minimum wage up to $25 an hour overnight.

Up
0
Up
3

"Taxing unrealized gains would mean Americans would owe taxes on the appreciation of their home every year."

Easy answer! If prices fall, or even 'plateau', there's no tax to pay. But of course, that would knacker The System in so many other ways.

Up
1

This is just the sort of disinformation campaign that is designed to discredit her and her campaign. It is so utterly ridiculous as to laughable. This will have come from either the Trump camp or some foreign source trying to influence the election.

Believers will only demonstrate how truly stupid and gullible they are.

Up
5

This is just the sort of disinformation campaign that is designed to discredit her and her campaign

I did say it was a rumor. Unconfirmed. Russians meddling again you reckon?

Up
3

No, no.

It's Iranian meddling this time. Trump and The Mullahs. Good material for another Enquiry if it has to come to that.

Up
1

I think the ability and scope for internal interests to meddle eclipses that of foreign agents.

Up
0

Disinformation campaign!?

General Explanations of the Administration's Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Proposals (treasury.gov)

Biden’s Treasury Department said it’s proposing “a minimum tax of 25 percent on total income, generally inclusive of unrealized capital gains, for all taxpayers with wealth (that is, the difference obtained by subtracting liabilities from assets) greater than $100 million.”

Treasury officials offered their rationale for the proposed change, saying the country’s current approach with unrealized capital gains “disproportionately benefits high-wealth taxpayers and provides many high-wealth taxpayers with a lower effective tax rate than many low- and middle-income taxpayers.”

Up
2

Cheers Rosso. Got to be a catch though. JPM wouldn't accept this. 

Up
1

No worries.. of course the legislation would need to pass both houses, so it's no fait accompli! But to suggest this is a propaganda push by Trump et al is a little short-sighted. 

IF it were to go ahead, the capital flight would be something that could never be undone. 

Up
1

IF it were to go ahead, the capital flight would be something that could never be undone.

Bingo

Up
1

Buffet knows how to time the market 

Up
0

Glad I got in before the rise in high speed rail charges. Boy was it impressive, and only about $120 from Beijing to Shanghai.

Up
1

Luxon telling LG to 'do the basics'. 

'Digger Luxon' might have some support in Tauranga ...Council failed to get funding for stage 2 of Cameron rd upgrade...looking at the comments below the article folk are celebrating they didnt get the funding...lol 

 https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/349576--164m-cameron-rd-upgrade-fails-to…

Up
0

Same old BS about having to plan for growth.

When are msm going to ask the simple question how big do you plan on growing the City?  When will you stop? And why?

Up
4

Problem: Low lake levels mean high power prices.

Solution: Let generators take more water now.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/525816/transpower-allows-generators…

well we all know what is happening in summer... Execpt for the Generators, the politians, and most of the general public, who will be shocked and blindsided. I mean "It was not something that could be forecast"

Up
3

"Inventories that shrank below 90 million tons during an electricity supply crisis in 2021 subsequently surged to record of more than 635 million tons at the end of June, according to estimates by China Coal Resource, a market information provider. That may drag prices even lower than usual during the autumn lull, with repercussions for miners globally."

Up
0

OOPS! #Japan slides back into trade deficit w/yen's recent appreciation dimming the outlook for the nation's exports. Japan posted a trade deficit of ¥621.8bn for July, equivalent to $4.28bn. That followed a ¥224bn surplus in June. https://morningstar.com/news/dow-jones    Link

Up
0

Anyone hear Luxies' speech to local government yesterday? I was going to comment but my inbox received a better one. Enjoy.

https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2024/08/22/the-government-declares-t…

Up
2

Just wait till the government frees up urban sprawl even more than it is currently freed up…. Even more debt for councils 

Up
1

Good piece. 

Like I said upthread, Clown territory. 

Moral bankruptcy is assumed - but intellectual bankruptcy is worse. 

Up
1

Worse National leader in living memory. 

Up
0

Good to see some inspirational commonsense from Central Govt to reset the out of control Local Govts long dedication to wasting other peoples money on their virtue signalling vanity projects. 

Speech to LGNZ SuperLocal conference | Beehive.govt.nz

Up
1