Breakfast briefing: China's investment momentum slows fast

Economy / news

Investment retreats in China confirm tough outlook; Japan and India make gains; US PMIs rise while their housing market stays stunted; UST 10yr 4.26%; gold and oil hold; NZ$1 = 61.2 USc; TWI-5 = 70.9

24th Jun 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news the pressure is on China to revive its fast-slowing momentum.

First however, this week will bring some key American data covering durable goods orders and PCE inflation data on Friday (NZT), new and pending house sales, and the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey result on Wednesday (NZT). The US Fed will also release its annual stress test results on Thursday (NZT). We will also get key inflation data from the EU, Canada and importantly from Australia on Wednesday. The Westpac MI consumer confidence survey will also come this week, tomorrow in fact. Finally, look out for some key Japanese data on Thursday especially on retail sales and industrial production.

Over the weekend China said attracted virtually no more foreign direct investment in the year to May than in the year to April in an outcome that will probably alarm Beijing privately. That puts the May FDI level -28% lower than the year-ago level in a trajectory that is as tough for them as in the depths of the GFC. And it is probably going to get tougher for them, especially for important tech.

And it isn't much better at home for investment. During the first six months of this year, the total value of mainland China's IPOs has plummeted -84% on the year to just 33 bln yuan (NZ$7 bln), while only 44 companies went public, down -75%. In any other market, this would called a crash.

It is no surprise then that the Chinese yuan is weakening, especially against the USD.

The early versions of the Japanese PMIs reported gains in their factory sector to a modest expansion, but a fall back in their services sector to a surprise (although tiny) contraction.

Meanwhile, Japanese CPI inflation rose in May to 2.8%, up from 2.5% in April. Food was up +4.1%.

In India, their early PMIs rose to faster expanding levels in both sectors.

And the monsoon has arrived in India, taking some pressure off its heat and water stress - although not yet in parched northern India.

In the US, the first of their June PMIs are in, the internationally benchmarked versions. Their factory sector PMI rose but still a modest expansion and a 3 month high. And their services PMI rose to a good expansion to a 2 year high. Both were on the back of rising new orders. Making this a bit more impressive is that cost inflation was much lower in both sectors, and business confidence in the immediate future (1 year) rose. They report that for the first time in 3 months, companies planned to expand their workforce.

In what might seem like a bit of irony, the Conference Board leading index was released over the weekend and it retreated - but it was more May and isn't reporting on the same period as the June PMIs. It's a 'leading index' that trails current data!

Also for May, American existing home sales fell -0.7% in May from April to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 4.11 mln units, the lowest in four months. The decline comes as the median sales price climbed to a record high of US$419,300 (NZ$685,000). Meanwhile, unsold inventory sits at a 3.7-months supply at the current sales pace. Interestingly, it you match the housing sales level between the US and New Zealand on a population basis, they will sell about 64,200 houses in a year on a NZ equivalent basis. Over the past year to May we have sold 67,400. Both markets are in the doldrums.

Retail sales in Canada are projected to have dropped by -0.6% in May 2024 compared to the previous month, according to a flash estimate. This would represent the steepest decline since March 2023. Such a decrease would offset the +0.7% surge in April, the largest in a year.

Canadian producer prices rose +1.8% in May, their fastest increase since January 2023.

In the EU, their PMIs show their recovery is slowing in June as new orders fall for first time in four months. Their huge service sector is still expanding, but their factory sector is contracting at a slightly faster rate.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26% and unchanged from this time Saturday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is now at -48 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still inverted by -83 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is still inverted by -106 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is holding at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 2.27%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.68% and unchanged from Saturday.

The price of gold will start today unchanged from Saturday at US$2320/oz.

Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at US$80.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$84.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from Saturday at 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also marginally firmer at 57.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at 70.9.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,070 and up a mere +0.1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has very low at just under +/- 0.5%.

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104 Comments

by Pa1nter | 24th Jun 24, 7:23am 1719170623

Meanwhile, in Greece they're looking at 6 day work weeks, to overcome labour shortages

https://www.dw.com/en/greece-a-six-day-work-week-the-country-hopes-to-k…

Work a Saturday, keep the foreigners out!

by JimboJones | 24th Jun 24, 7:43am 1719171823

They can’t fix the problem by raising their OCR

by nigelh | 24th Jun 24, 8:19am 1719173966

"combating undeclared work" Called cash jobs in NZ. From on the bones of their backsides and austerity (thanks to the EU and Germany specifically) a few years ago to labour shortages now. Who would have thought. Young Greeks must have left the country during austerity and not returned. No austerity here, just a poor economy and they off to Oz.

by nktokyo | 24th Jun 24, 8:37am 1719175033

I believe it was the Germans refusing to continue to be a lender to a nation technically in default, so they could prop up a fantastically unsustainable pension system.

Or in other words, the adults had to come in and make some hard financial decisions.

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 9:40am 1719178834

Too simplistic. You forgot it was the Germans who massively benefited from including weak economies like Greece into the Euro system, artificially depressing the value of the Euro and greatly boosting German export results. Greece itself never met the criteria to become part of the Eurozone and the Germans knew it. But a bit of accountancy and investment bank magic papered over the cracks and here we are now.

by El Torso | 24th Jun 24, 8:28am 1719174489

Labour shortages and high unemployment - crazy.

Greece has many challenges like low wages, high unemployment and a declining population, but it is not alone. Yet working more stands in stark contrast to most of its European neighbors.

by JimboJones | 24th Jun 24, 7:48am 1719172082

Another Jewellery store robbed, owner hit with a hammer. But I’m sure the purps will get a good discount after they say sorry to the judge yet again. I think it’s got to the point where the judges are incapable of providing logical sentences, the government needs to be forcing minimum terms for repeat offenders that keep these people out of society. The cost of prison has to be less than the economic cost of people being scared to live or run a business.

by HughJorgan | 24th Jun 24, 7:59am 1719172790

They need to lower the age that a person is considered an adult + Police should be able to detain children within reason. Security Guards should also have some for of rights as they have simply become observers.

At the moment there are youths running wild because they know they are untouchable and Police don’t want to attend those incidents because of the risk to them and they can’t do anything.

All we are seeing now is these youths getting older. They know that society is going to do nothing but watch.

by JimboJones | 24th Jun 24, 8:10am 1719173442

Ship them off to boot camp until they are old enough for prison.

The problem with the law is that it focuses on the best outcome for the criminal! It needs to be focused on the best outcome for society.

Maybe they need to apply economics to prison sentences. Sentence = probability of committing another crime x average economic cost of that crime / cost per year of prison.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 8:29am 1719174584

I hate to break it to you Hugh, but our economic model relies on a desperate underclass, and the longer you have that underclass, the more stress that parents and kids endure, and the more society disintegrates. Yes, the behaviour of some young people is off-the-chart terrible, but what we are seeing on our streets and in our shops is a direct consequence of the society that successive NZ Govts have shaped; egged on by angry boomers who think beating kids with sticks or locking them up two-to-a-cell is the key to creating model citizens.

In the last year we have increased the number of young people (18-25) on the dole by 30%. NZ is failing them.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jun 24, 8:34am 1719174897

There's plenty of places with swathes of poor people/children that don't have youth behaving like ours.

What they do have is a fairly uniform moral code, discipline and strict consequences.

We have embarked on a grand experiment of rudderless individualism that'll eventually eat us.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 8:54am 1719176049

It's not about how many people are poor, it is about the degree of inequality - the gap between the haves and the have nots. I agree that moral code matters - but what would young people and families in poverty perceive our moral code as a country to be? They get treated like crap by officials; they hand over half their wages in rent to rich landlords that offer substandard housing; and they see people around them working themselves to death doing two jobs and not being able to afford the basics. It's a recipe for societal breakdown.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jun 24, 9:00am 1719176421

it is about the degree of inequality

Errr, no. Many of the other places have much higher degrees of inequality, homelessness, and no state services.

by JimboJones | 24th Jun 24, 9:27am 1719178033

Agree. They are not committing crime because other people who work hard have money. They are committing crime because they are bored / stupid and know there is no consequence, and because they have learned only one thing off their terrible parents.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:31am 1719178260

There are thousands of robust studies that conclude the opposite. But, I guess you have a right to your evidence-free reckons..

by facepalm | 24th Jun 24, 9:43am 1719179004

I think there are valid points on both sides of this argument.

To say social deprivation, inequality, socioeconomics don't have a large part to play then that's naive..

Conversely, to say appropriate social consequences to actions that disincentivise actions (make it not worth doing!) is to harsh is also beyond naive..

No system that is only carrot will ever work. There is a proportion of human nature that will take, take, take advantage. Also, stick only never works. You can't beat a different set of values into someone.

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 9:49am 1719179352

You do realise that NZ teachers are now forbidden from using negative reinforcement to penalise their pupils now. They can't even make a troublesome kid do a timeout outside the classroom because it might be damaging to mental health. So the entire class has to suffer.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:53am 1719179628

Countless studies have shown that young people do not consider consequences before acting - particularly if they have been subject to significant stress in their childhood. They are constantly in fight or flight mode. When someone is in their face shouting at them, do you think they pause and reflect on whether they will get into trouble if they lash out?

by facepalm | 24th Jun 24, 10:01am 1719180084

Maybe we should focus on the stress in their lives. Wonder where that comes from? dysfunctional family situations, drugs, alcohol, family violence, drugs, lack of support, lack of education?

I don't think people (tax payers) would care about the cost if there were KPIs and results that could be pointed to. Chucking money at the causers of dysfunctional situations and saying wa-la we have everything is fixed, is bonkers.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 24th Jun 24, 10:09am 1719180559

The need to consider consequences is typically something kids 'learn'... early on or later in life.

It is something that used to be taught in the home or at school..... in the form of having consequences for not doing chores, or misbehaviour, (detention, earlier bed times etc) but rewards for the correct behaviour such as pocket money or treats.

Society seems to have shifted and those consequences and rewards arent consistently applied.. if at all. I agree with the coalition that we need to revert to having consequences for behaviour society deems unacceptable. For rewards it really falls on the home and schools to explain them - remembering some will be longer term such as better jobs.

Implementing new fangled ways to deal with issues could be done on a smaller 'experimental' scale. but until proven more effective and fair to the rest of society that is affected by the results of people who do not show regard for consequences... should be kept out of the mainstream.

Whilst peoples backgrounds, mental struggles and so on are an issue - and we need to improve access to services designed to help people. that should never change the need for society to consistently apply consequences for antisocial behaviour

by peter.may | 24th Jun 24, 12:54pm 1719190465

I normally agree wit JFoe. But as a youngster I was very wary of the cane in my school!

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 4:46pm 1719204376

Did you grow up in a house / neighbourhood where there was a constant threat of violence and anger? This is what people don't understand. Young children growing up with physical violence or in houses under constant stress literally develop differently neurologically. They are constantly wired - fight or flight. Very little rational thought going on - espeically when faced with a threat (real or perceived). Add in drugs, social media pressure, the constant feeling of being an abject failure, and you have a mental health crisis and a growing crime rate.

by peter.may | 24th Jun 24, 1:01pm 1719190865

I normally agree wit JFoe. But as a youngster I was very wary of the cane in my school!

by Frank. | 24th Jun 24, 1:07pm 1719191240

Yeah but you know, deciding to arm yourself with a hammer and robbing a jewellers and then deciding to use the hammer on the shop owner when he tells you to F off. It’s not exactly a spur of the moment operation. Heard of pre meditation? Mate, I enjoy reading your take on the economy, but you’re clutching at straws here. I’m thinking that if one of these little shits, who choose to commit aggravated robberies, were to be shot and killed by a shop owner it may slow it all up.

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 9:47am 1719179233

Maybe the western academics who keep pushing intellectual ideas and cultural concepts which over a generation or two has made the outcomes of our education system and society as a whole measurably worse (while previously poor Asian countries including China and Singapore are leaping ahead) are not who you should implicitly trust? More specifically, the pride in which you take the work of these (echo chamber amplifying) academics seems, at a minimum, grossly misplaced.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:36am 1719178592

I thought I was agreeing with you in part - inequality in an 'every man for themselves' society is a recipe for crime and disorder. If you can't find legal and legitimate ways of achieving status (and belonging), you take the illegal route.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 24, 10:01am 1719180070

How about this then. Letter to the editor ChCh press 17 years ago, in the aftermath of the tragic deaths of teenagers victim to a use of a motor car as a weapon.

”As I have been reading the correspondence in the paper since the Edgeware Road tragedy, I have become convinced that my generation - the 40 somethings, the parents of today’s teenagers and early 20s - must acknowledge our part in the attitudes young people have.

As young parents we laughed at out mothers’ ideas about discipline and routine for babies and toddlers; we knew that what was needed was unconditional love and acceptance and high self-esteem. We gave our babies constant attention, demand feeding and never left them to cry; we spent our money on all the latest educational toys and gave them constant stimulation without stifling their creativity by directing their play or teaching them how to work. We nurtured and cared for them constantly, gave them everything, excused their bad behaviour , protected them and rescued them from anything negative. At school, we removed corporal punishment and competition and replaced them with child-centred activities and increased teachers’ workloads, while reducing what was expected of children.

In short, we have let our young people believe that they are the centre of the universe, their rights are not accompanied by any responsibilities and they are the authors of their own destinies.

Then we sit back in judgement on those who believed us and now think they can change the rules to suit themselves and the world owes them a living. And we wonder why some of them are despairing when they discover they actually can’t control everything in their own lives.

It’s time for us to stop judging and start applauding the few who haven’t bought in to “me,me,me” and are doing amazing things. And start helping the rest.”

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 10:10am 1719180637

Agree.

But I think kiwis attitude to road safety is very lax , and frankly , childish. when is the last time are serious jail sentence was handed out for taking the lives of innocent people in a car accident. Police are criticised for trying to enforce road safety , yet road accidents take way more lives than murder or abuse. Why don't you go and catch a real criminal? .

Speeding , and even drunk driving are seen as games to play, not get caught , and when you do its unfair. Many of us grew up in an era when drunk driving was normal , and then it became a case of not getting caught.

Of course , we are all great , responsible drivers , and its all those other idiots on the road.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 24, 10:13am 1719180794

Not exactly about bad driving.This was found to be murder. The perpetrator is still jailed.

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 10:18am 1719181085

But do you think the outrage would be more if they say , shot them?

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 24, 11:13am 1719184392

Suggests to me that the author was prompted by more than just one incident and his or her concerns, as expressed, have arisen from a progression of publicised incidents, and perhaps too their own experiences, and that is why the trouble has been taken here, to explain where it is thought they originate in quite some part.

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 10:39am 1719182390

I remember a conversation I had with a scout master, he said the kids were keen , but they couldnt get enough parents to help , as they were all at home watching TV. nowadays its phones , I guess..

by Foxglove. | 24th Jun 24, 11:11am 1719184286

Can’t help but agree. And on top of that since the above time of 2007 the use of smartphones has scaled unimaginable heights and that includes the younger generations with what’s available on the net, social media pressure and influencers etc, and the accompanying trash, bullying etc. Made an already not so good scene get worse and worse in my book.

by Frank. | 24th Jun 24, 1:19pm 1719191944

I’d be wary using a scout master as a shining example.

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 24, 9:47am 1719179225

Exactly - people need hope. Instead we’ve been kicking the to the ground then wonder why they have no respect for the law.

As Machiavelli pointed out, to have the cooperation of your fellow man, you have two options;

1. Treat them well so they like you and will do well by you because they want to.

2. Treat them so terribly that they are broken and incapable of retribution.

It appears that many in the posts above support point 2 as a means of leadership/governance (basically authoritarian rule). I’m not a fan of this appproach.

by facepalm | 24th Jun 24, 10:41am 1719182512

Seems very idealistic to assume it isn't both.

No parent gets a well rounded and kid by treating them well without consequences. Consequences is not treating someone poorly.

Fixing the social and family situations that produce these kids is something to address as a society.

The number of people that see it as carrot only, or stick only, blows my mind.

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 24, 11:00am 1719183654

I agree with you when viewing the issues through the lens of parent/child (or an inter generational issue).

In my post above I was framing the issue in terms of government vs society or the haves vs the have nots.

If you view the issue through this lens/paradigm, then you might see the point I was tempting to make.

In regards to you point above, what happens if the parents are financially and emotionally broken? How are they ever supposed to raise competent, lawful and cooperative children? How do they create consequences to poor actions when their own parents were too broken themselves to teach them about consequences - and how do you stop this from happening to generation after generation of people in families who are struggling to get out of this rut?

Those born into wealth and prosperity with loving parents (who can set a good example for their children and therefore enforce consequences - you can’t enforce consequences as a parent if you are too broken yourself to set an example for your children to follow) have a significant head start on those who do not - but it would appear quite a few people on this thread do not wish to acknowledge this.

by He Kahukura | 24th Jun 24, 12:22pm 1719188538

All of this is simply the result of generational poverty. I currently engage daily with with grandparents now raising their grandchildren. A large percentage of them didn't do well the first time around and now they have another generation to raise. You can imagine how that is going to turn out if the first time around didn't go well. Just negotiating Government and NGO systems is beyond those who struggled 25/30 years ago. The community knows who these people are, what they need - usually just someone to walk alongside, and what will benefit three or in some cases four generations to get them on the path to being acceptable citizens. Can the agencies involved join up the dots? Not very often and so the situation exacerbates.

by facepalm | 24th Jun 24, 12:59pm 1719190746

100% agree. I have seen the same thing first hand too many times to count.

How one generation who created an issue now gets a 2nd go because they have grandparent next to their name baffles me. Age dose not equal wisdom in these situations, without education and change.

Someone to walk alongside is exactly what is needed! This costs money, time and people though so its sad to say but its cheaper to sit people behind desks and hand out money.

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 1:02pm 1719190927

You don't think have regrets and learn by their mistakes?. The dynamics between grandparents and kids , and parents and kids are very different too.

by facepalm | 24th Jun 24, 12:51pm 1719190313

I understand in this context but do both options not leave out important nuance. I don't think many people would agree at either 1 or 2 is a solutions in its own right?

"1. Treat them well so they like you and will do well by you because they want to.

2. Treat them so terribly that they are broken and incapable of retribution"

You are correct in that if the family are emotionally broken then it is a very tough ask to raise competent, lawful and cooperative children. I would also propose though, that it is unfair on wider society to have no consequences, because of their situation. Would this not be an opportunity at the same time as facilitating a consequence, we try to address some of these intergenerational issues?

It would be correct to say a number of people from a level of prosperity don't acknowledge that some have a significant head start.

I think a fairer to say prosperity does not equal the removal of all issue. There are a huge number of families from severely socioeconomically disadvantaged situations that don't have these issues. Money has a role to play but there are a huge bundle of other factors involved that need addressing at the same time.

If the summary is that a large number of these issues are intergenerational issues of emotionally broken people, with every other social issue among their ranks (poor levels of basic education, drugs, alcohol, family violence, gambling, poor understanding of work, removal from society via gangs).

How do you fix issues caused by emotionally broken people raising children in the same dysfunctional way?

How do you put some responsibility actions, either on parents or their children, or both?

How to do you make a change so that the next generation repeats less of the same issues?

How do you make the 97% of law abiding society feel safe and that there are consequences?

How would you treat an extended family member or family in these situations? Is that not how we as a society should treat them? Help, assistance, support, education but if they spit in your (societies) face then you don't remove support, but there sure needs to be consequence?

No easy answer but I think people get way to stuck on one side of the fence or the other.

I don't think any amount of spending is too much if it equals results. Just one side wants no spending, and the other side wants no measuring of results.

by pacifica | 24th Jun 24, 4:14pm 1719202452

most people stealing are not stealing or assaulting people because of inequality or need. They are primarily doing so because they literally can without any major consequences and the easiest targets are the poor, & those experiencing the most inequality and inequity who are far less able to fight back or seek justice.

by Dick Mammoth | 24th Jun 24, 12:24pm 1719188646

They also have guards with shotguns outside grocery shops....I am in the philippines now ,you dont rob a store here.

by pacifica | 24th Jun 24, 4:13pm 1719202423

Since disabled folk are those experiencing the most inequality and inequity in NZ, with 50% of disabled youth NEET, most with incomes less then half that of non disabled (including non disabled on benefits) you would expect given your logic criminal proclivity to be high. Yet NZ justice stats show disabled people are less likely to commit crimes then non disabled people and disabled people are more likely to be victims of crime often perpetrated by those far more wealthy then they are. You see most people stealing are not stealing or assaulting people because of inequality or need. They are primarily doing so because they literally can without any major consequences and the easiest targets are the poor, & those experiencing the most inequality and inequity who are far less able to fight back or seek justice.

by Peter M | 24th Jun 24, 11:57am 1719187042

'We have embarked on a grand experiment of rudderless individualism that'll eventually eat us.' Fuelled by the (un) social media!

by Let me be Frank | 24th Jun 24, 5:59pm 1719208797

It is a dual problem....we need to address the underlying causes as Joe states, or we will never improve the situation , but we also need to accept that for those already damaged we need to apply consequences as the opportunity to prevent the cause is in the past.

Unfortunately both solutions are incredibly labour intensive and comparatively unproductive.

by KH | 24th Jun 24, 8:40am 1719175206

Yes Jfoe, it's terrible. But why blame boomers. I see it more a problem of our overpaid social justice fiddlers on the government tab. Wellingtonians, academics, .......... the list is vast.

Live well, produce little, demand everything, load the cost onto the poor at the fringes. No social justice in that.

Time for reality.

As for the boomers. Replace Super with universal KiwiSaver.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 8:59am 1719176344

Funny, the western democracies that have historically trusted their social justice fiddlers seem to be doing much better on social justice and crime - Iceland, Denmark, NZ are typically in the top 5 globally. But, the current Govt seem determined to send us plummeting down that list with dumbass punitive policies that are not designed to actually work, but to attract boomer swing voters.

by Baywatch | 24th Jun 24, 9:33am 1719178423

Many here would encourage stocks and public floggings I am guessing?

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 9:50am 1719179441

How come you didn't mention Sweden and all the gang based grenade attacks that they have been suffering?

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:55am 1719179703

How come I didn't mention X place where Y has happened? Because I am capable of critical thought.

by TommyYank-old | 24th Jun 24, 8:44am 1719175492

Or you could say that 70% of Youth are transitioning to adulthood just fine. Question is --Is it NZ failing them or the Parents of the 30% failing them? Did those 30% put in the hard yards at School-did their parents read to them when they were 3 & 4 years old? Or do we have too many parents in society wishing it was 1970 again when anyone could get a job anywhere, and it paid the National scale. Unfortunately Globalism--not the Governments put an end to all those jobs that were out there in the day of the young baby boomers. 25 years ago Helen Clark wanted to solve those problems with the "Knowledge Economy"--instead we have a society of School Rejection. It's not working!

by interesting1234 | 24th Jun 24, 10:38am 1719182310

We have many parents who struggle to achieve owning their own home, and who see their pay rises as undermines by constant increases to those doing less than them on minimum wage. They see society breaking down at an increasing rate since 2020 and take to social media as a coping mechanism, and because it is programmed to be as addictive as possible. The kids then learn from the parents, and don't grow up with confident and motivated role models, plus seem to get exposed to social media at younger and younger ages which distorts self-esteem, is more likely to polarise individuals. If one wishes it was 1970 then simply live as best you can like it. Turn off all internet, or in todays world use it only for necessary productive things, spend more time outside doing things, socialising, being engaged in the community around you, and the kids will learn this is the life to strive for.

by nktokyo | 24th Jun 24, 8:44am 1719175495

Extend the olive branch and they'll pinch that too.

Blaming youth crime on boomers? How about the collapse in the quality of our education system, leaving these kids without a chance to better themselves even if they wanted to? Even that's just one input, but a far more concrete one than Grandpa.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jun 24, 8:54am 1719176072

Our education system now preaches "make good choices". Sometimes you just need to be told "no".

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:37am 1719178645

Who is in charge of our education system? Kids?!? Jeez.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 24, 8:53am 1719175998

You're on track for a hiding there Jfoe, and others have already said what I'd be inclined to, about Boomers, but please explain why you think why our economy depends on a 'desperate underclass'.

Oh and Pa1nter is right too.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:03am 1719176594

Are you kidding? People sit on these forums everyday saying that we need to use monetary policy to create spare capacity (unemployment) in the economy to keep wages and prices down... and then people ask me to explain why our economy relies on an underclass!

by Independent_Observer | 24th Jun 24, 9:39am 1719178781

I agree with you JFoe - our economy over the past 20 odd years has been about increasing the wealth of the already well off, and making it as hard as possible for those not as well off to get started/established in the economy (poor policies including tax settings and interest rate settings).

Those who are struggling have little hope of prosperity following the rules/economic settings that have been impoverishing them. And then we wonder why a growing group have little or no respect for the law! Give them hope of prosperity through inclusion in the lawful economy, then crime rates will fall - but we don’t have governments that have been doing this - they have instead been bending to the already wealthy political supporters/doners. Eg to property industry who want even more financial inequality! (which will probably result in even more disenfranchised poor people, which will rsesukt in even more crime).

by J.C. | 24th Jun 24, 10:25am 1719181501

Neo-feudalism. Achieved through controlling the monetary system and who is closest to the spigot. It's not just a pyramid in each Western society. It's also at a nation state level. Organizations like IMF and World Bank carry out much of the work on behalf of the Anglosphere-led power structure.

by Jethro | 24th Jun 24, 4:33pm 1719203582

Morality and Crime

This link points to a lack of moral development as the reason why young people commit crime.

https://phys.org/news/2020-05-young-people-commit-crime-moral.html

It references this study. https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/morality-prevents-crime

Lack of morality is put down to those with whom they interact most as they grow up.

“Young people tend to spend most of their time with parents or primary caregivers, teachers and their peer groups. If a child's peers or parents don't think it's wrong to commit a crime, or lack empathy or guilty feelings towards the people affected by that crime, then this a likely to affect how the young person feels as well. Research shows that lack of guilt for rule-breaking behaviour can be displayed from as young as three.”

The two views - increase the severity of punishment or level up economic disadvantage don’t seem too figure much, compared to the influencer groups. Maybe the next study should focus on why "a child's peers or parents don't think it's wrong to commit a crime, or lack empathy or guilty feelings towards the people affected by that crime"

by murray86 | 24th Jun 24, 11:05am 1719183940

That is somewhat different to needing a "desperate underclass' I agree that the economic model that has been mainstream for too long required a percentage of unemployed. A reserve labour pool if you will, based on a perpetual growth model. That neither needs them to 'desperate' nor an underclass. On the other hand recent economic policies (since 1984) have persisted in driving in this direction, not because they are 'needed' but because our politicians are not smart enough to understand the consequences of the policies they are enacting. This is not a "boomer' created problem in anyway. Those policies are not changing despite there being no boomers in Government, indeed I'd go as far as to suggest they are getting worse.

by J.C. | 24th Jun 24, 11:29am 1719185347

. This is not a "boomer' created problem in anyway. Those policies are not changing despite there being no boomers in Government, indeed I'd go as far as to suggest they are getting worse.

It is a boomer problem in that the beliefs, attitudes that shape the power structures derive from the boomer generation.

F'more, the boomer generation itself is not going to sacrifice itself in pursuit of change for the better for younger generations.

by murray86 | 24th Jun 24, 12:13pm 1719188030

What a load of drivel! You are blaming a whole generation for the actions and beliefs of a few. Your generation are in power now, why aren't the policies changing? Why are you conceding power to another generation when you don't believe they have the right to that power? If the Boomers are preventing you from making those changes, how are they doing that?

the truth is it is about people from wealth power and privilege working to protect themselves. The age they are is not relevant. their attitude is just as yours is.

by Peter M | 24th Jun 24, 12:14pm 1719188091

Let me give you some examples:

Kiwifruit is worth nothing as long as it is not picked from the trees. For thousands of RSE workers the New Zealand minimal wage is like a god sent Hollywood filmstar wage. NZ resident workers can't live of that wage even with the enormous amaount of hours available. Half their wage goes to a landlord for living in a cartonboard box called a New Zealand home.
South Island dairy farms are employing a lot of Philipine workers! According to: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1449197/philippines-dairy-cattle-in… there are only 9783 dairy cows in the Philipines. So how could they become skilled dairy farm workers? Because somebody figured out they don't need to be skilled as long as they are cheaper than the locals.

Conclusion: Jfoe is correct. In order for New Zealand to survive economically we need a poorly paid underclass.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jun 24, 9:23am 1719177814

Once again: the number of net immigrants on work visas is approximately equal to the number of >1yr Jobseeker beneficiaries.

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 9:27am 1719178061

Have you ever employed staff?

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jun 24, 9:36am 1719178561

Hundreds over decades. On the factory floor, trades, professionals, graduates...

I've also lost count a long time ago of the number I've "unemployed".

Your point being?

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 9:54am 1719179649

I would think you would then know a large % of the long term unemployed are not worth employing . Immigrants , OTOH , are generally keen.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jun 24, 10:36am 1719182170

I wouldn't write people off if they show willing to learn, take on board lessons & change poor behaviour. We used to employ people with a strong eye on the ABCs - Attitude Behaviour & Commitment as well as qualifications & experience.

I've previously on occasion given personal references to people I've dismissed to enable them to regain employment.

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 10:43am 1719182584

Yes , virtually everyone I employed had been unemployed for some time. But there are another lot i wouldn't employ . they are usually pretty open they don't want the job. Just tell winz i came to the interview.

by facepalm | 24th Jun 24, 9:53am 1719179611

By implication I am assuming you are saying current Govt policies are to blame for this 30% increase?

Could you please specifically point to changes in the last 12 months that have suddenly made this increase in youth unemployment?

I would hazard to suggest that it may more likely be policy choices of far longer than the last 12 months coming home to roost so to speak. If being on the dole is on balance better than working (not from a middle class point of view but a poorly educated, gang associated, low consequence point in society) then you would expect the numbers to go up.

Further considering the number of long term dole recipients over the last few years, with staggeringly low unemployment, and people screaming out for workers. It may be reasonably to suggest that it isn't lack of opportunity but a conscious choice for a portion of the population.

by pacifica | 24th Jun 24, 4:28pm 1719203333

No one chooses to be born disabled, with 50% of disabled youth NEET it never was their choice. Neither was it their choice to be denied access to equitable education or employment. You see when 25% of the population has disabilities then a significant number of the working population are going to be unemployed in a biased society that denies disabled youth both education & work opportunities.

Many have never even been on holiday, never been to another child's birthday party, they cannot choose to visit a park or community center when they like and sport participation access is far less available (some even get told they cannot use gyms). So you expect them to be able to have choice to remove that level of extreme discrimination, from denial of equitable education, denial of community access and denial of volunteer & work opportunities. Sure in a magic fairy world where everyone can wave a magic wand, be suddenly non disabled and get a job with a wage they can live on.

Welcome to the real world instead.

by dumbthoughts | 24th Jun 24, 9:59am 1719179949

When I was a young whippersnapper and played competitive tennis, my coach used to go apoplectic at me for playing in "no man's land" in the middle of the court. He said you either play at the net, or at the baseline, and you only play in the middle if you must get to a ball. You don't hang out there otherwise.

Our justice system seems to sit in this no man's land, in a different context.

We don't do enough to prevent young people and "beginner" offenders from offending/re-offending. We should be throwing everything including the kitchen sink at rehabilitating first time offenders, juvenile ram raiders and the like. This also means needing to build a society where there are better career/future prospects for youth but also trying to instill some level of discipline/responsibility to others which seems to be missing from so many.

However, we also don't do a good enough job of accepting the unpleasant fact that there are some genuinely bad people out there who are beyond earthly redemption. Sure, it probably isn't all the fault of the gang prospect with 50+ convictions as he probably had a bad upbringing (I've done a few police ride alongs with friends/family who are cops, and it's flabbergasting how many crims have charge sheets longer than the Old Testament, always for the same things over and over again) but at some point it's more important to keep normal, law-abiding people safe from these freaks than it is to give them their n+1 chance at changing their ways, because at that level of recidivism they won't.

by PeakEverything | 24th Jun 24, 12:19pm 1719188382

I wonder how many people who were anti 16 year old's voting are pro 16 year olds being adults for crime.

by pacifica | 24th Jun 24, 4:44pm 1719204247

According to justice & medical statistics even youth as old as 20 often do not have enough developed brains to understand consequences for actions or to be less self serving and selfish. It is also often true in many aspects and under that age they are heavily dominated, controlled and influenced by parents & guardians. Most have to be free and independent of them before they feel able to vote as they choose as the level of emotional, financial & physical control can be enormous and hard to break. You see in an ideal society everyone has amazing parents. In NZ with exceptionally high levels of family abuse and intimate partner violence we have often a much lower grade for parenting skills where for many youth they are lucky to survive their parents.

Sure a great many will have parents that are just ok and just place a heavy influence on the child's vote. But in NZ the number of poor parents outnumber the amount of good parents to a significant degree. Hence many claim they need the children to be fed by other orgs, many have kids unvaccinated, many are without essential needs and sadly many already have hospital records and are known by OT. Whangai arrangements only keep many within abusers circles, (where family members are also abusers) so there often is no escape until a child has independent income and unfortunately it is harder to break free then leaving abusive partners.

It would help if you understood how much control over voting and behavior a high control group has over people (even ones who consider themselves successful & smart). It is like a cult except often you cannot escape some level of abusive parental influence until you are able to completely live independently.

by Flying high | 24th Jun 24, 8:08am 1719173327

Karen chourr has or is making an announcement around youth crime. This govt isn't perfect but is hoeing into the work

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 8:41am 1719175301

She made it. Also appeared on Sunday. She seems quite sincere, but straddled with the need to act tough to please ACTS old fart voters.

by HouseMouse | 24th Jun 24, 8:06am 1719173169

Good to see the high degree of independence and political neutrality in the government’s group of fast-track legislation advisors.

sarc

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/meet-the-governments-independent-fa…

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 8:50am 1719175854

Most corrupt govt ever.

Money talks, bullshit walks

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 8:08am 1719173301

Why would China actually need foreign investment? I am not sure the usual metrics really apply to the Chinese economy.

by HouseMouse | 24th Jun 24, 8:18am 1719173938

Agree. They also don’t need foreign tourism, given their domestic market is so huge.

What they do need, though, is foreign trade

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 8:36am 1719175000

Yes, my understanding is that they much prefer foreign investment of 'IP' - companies setting up in China to access their markets / labour, and sharing their knowledge / tech in return.

by nktokyo | 24th Jun 24, 8:46am 1719175599

"Sharing" - haha, good one.

by TommyYank-old | 24th Jun 24, 8:50am 1719175809

Funny. I can't find in any Thesaurus that the word "Sharing" having anything in common with "Stealing".

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Jun 24, 9:33am 1719178423

Companies gave tech and IP to China in return for access to their markets. I am sure companies steal ideas from each other all the time - Chinese or otherwise.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 24, 9:50am 1719179402

You've just described the US since WW2.

Stealing

Actually, it had some hangers-on - us included.

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 24, 9:56am 1719179795

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole. We had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment."

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 24, 9:54am 1719179686

China's commercial 'artificial sun' achieves first discharge

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 12:58pm 1719190699

If China can really develop a 25T toroidal magnetic field it will be a spectacular breakthrough.

by KH | 24th Jun 24, 8:28am 1719174481

It was more that foreign investors liked China. Then they saw the political risk and changed their mind. Rightly.

Similarly we like the NZ China trade. But you now see worried discussion about it.

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 10:06am 1719180410

You forgot to note that a large part of that political risk did not come from Beijing - but from Washington DC's prosecution of a trade and finance war designed to suppress Chinese rivalry to American supremacy.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jun 24, 8:22am 1719174120

New deal offered by Elon:

- Make a deposit with Tesla in BTC or ETH

- Tesla will send you back double your deposit. I.e. make a deposit of 1BTC, they will send you back 2BTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUV-YtPPXpw&ab_channel=Tesla

He's now an electric Willy Wonka

by delboy | 24th Jun 24, 9:00am 1719176419

I see a future where EVs are cheap and disposable like all other appliances you buy the latest then dump after 5 years at most.

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 9:51am 1719179483

Welcome to the Green future designed by our Green overlords.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jun 24, 10:28am 1719181738

WTF?

Musk isn't green.

You get some things right - geopolitics/repression, from memory - but that comment?

Nuts.

by Colonial Viper | 24th Jun 24, 12:57pm 1719190641

Sorry mate I was talking about the EV subsidies a recent government put through to subsidise Musk selling his wares.

by solardb | 24th Jun 24, 9:19am 1719177597

He is certainly an insult to the man he took the name from.

by Baywatch | 24th Jun 24, 10:43am 1719182615

Your gullibility Painter on this scams ..surprising, and you even posted link?

Which has now been removed

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 24, 8:53am 1719176029

It is no surprise then that the Chinese yuan is weakening, especially against the USD.

Reason why govts bluff interventions is they're powerless. Japan is a perfect example. They flushed ten trillion yen down the toilet only to prove their own impotence. It's the Euro$'s world, but govts & CBs have everyone believing they're in charge. https://youtu.be/LgAIaReI9Hg Link

by Audaxes | 24th Jun 24, 9:04am 1719176688

During the first six months of this year, the total value of mainland China's IPOs has plummeted -84% on the year to just 33 bln yuan (NZ$7 bln), while only 44 companies went public, down -75%. In any other market, this would called a crash.

Under Merkel, Berlin confidently maintained its position in the top ten countries by overall competitiveness, corresponding to its place in the "Group of Seven." Now it barely crawls into the top thirty. Today, Iceland and Bahrain are more competitive than the German giant on American legs. A few figures on the economic "successes" of Scholz and his company. Germany's national debt at the end of last year exceeded a record 2.4 trillion euros. It has been growing for more than a year. If Germany used to be a source of capital and investment, now Berlin continues to borrow, robbing its own citizens. The money goes to war and armaments – the debt under the corresponding defense-industrial program increased by 40% to 8.1 billion euros. According to Spiegel, many German federal states (regions) are "broke," with their debt increasing significantly just last year: - Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – +9.7%; - Saxony-Anhalt – +8.6%; - Berlin itself – +7.3%. All this makes German politicians think. But instead of a real analysis of causes and consequences, Bundestag deputy Stefan Brandner proposed: "Our dilapidated infrastructure needs every cent. Why should the supposed economic stability in African countries cost more than the repair of our bridges, roads, and railways?" In this, you can't argue with Brandner. According to the professional community of builders, at least 4,000 bridges in Germany need urgent repairs. The budget of the main road company – Autobahn GmbH – is being cut by about 20%. The railway operator – Deutsche Bahn – has been suffering losses for years (2.4 billion euros last year alone), and the company's turnover fell by another 13%.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jun 24, 2:42pm 1719196974

Seymour, scrutiny, and running a tight Govt ship

"Seymour told the committee he used a working definition of regulation as “rules which restrict the use of private property”, causing Labour MP Duncan Webb to demand how rules like, say, clean air quality which did not relate to private property or money fit in.

Seymour, with an admirable restraint, explained the economic principle of externalities. That is costs (for example pollution) that are produced by individuals’ exercising property rights (like running a factory) and imposed on the majority, a market failure which invites the government to step in. Good regulation, in other words."

Seymour, scrutiny, and running a tight Govt ship | The Post

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jun 24, 2:49pm 1719197342

"At a press conference on Monday afternoon, Transpower chief executive Alison Andrew said all the nuts securing the pylon to its baseplate on three legs were removed, "which caused the tower to lift off the baseplate and fall"."

Northland power cut: Maintenance crew removed nuts from tower, causing collapse, Transpower says | Newshub

"Mark Ryall, executive general manager of Grid Delivery, said any work that was more than “removing one bolt” needs an engineering review."

Northland power outage, pylon collapse: Transpower chief executive Alison Andrew confirms why tower fell - NZ Herald

No surprises there then.

by pacifica | 24th Jun 24, 4:59pm 1719205150

Yes not only an engineering fail but a primary school one too.

If we remove all the bolts for most the legs of this big heavy tower sitting on a slope at an angle will it fall.

Obviously they need to go back to playing with blocks in a sandpit, frack even blocks on a couch would give them this lesson. They should never have been employed in the roles in the first place and it is clear no due diligence in training was done. Which of the employees is culpable though... all of them in the chain. Those there, those who managed them, those who hired them, those who set the standards in the company and those who set the scope of the work & standards for operation with no checks (even of other companies). Fine them and discipline those in management. No one should get bonuses, right up to C level they should all face some disciplinary action because they all contributed to this mind blowing stupidity happening.

In this case it is very hard to use the more likely excuse of extreme stupidity over actual malicious actions as malicious actions are a far more simple solution (the tipping point from Hanlon's razor & Occam's razor).