Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news of some very large global tensions starting to boil hotter.
US on holiday; huge Japanese bank faces huge bond losses; heat debilitates Middle East to India; China to reform monetary policy; RBA to target BNPL; UST 10yr 4.23%; gold and oil unchanged; NZ$1 = 61.3 USc; TWI-5 = 70.7
But first, mortgage applications in the US rose by +0.9% in the second week of June, extending the +16% surge from the previous week, which was the sharpest weekly increase since the start of 2023. Their monitoring of the benchmark 30 year mortgage rate showed it slipped below 7% last week, its lowest since late March.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US fell in June from May, and to below market expectations. It was the lowest reading since December 2023, attributed to mortgage rates remaining around 7%. However it is back at about its average level since mid 2022. The industry also said home builders there are also dealing with higher rates for construction and development loans, chronic labour shortages still, and a dearth of buildable lots.
In Japan, their huge agricultural bank, Norinchukin, has said it has made a massive mistake in its bond portfolio, betting that rates would stay down. They haven't and it said it would unwind its position between now and March 31. That will involve selling ¥10 tln (NZ$105 bln) of US and European sovereign bonds and take an expected ¥1.5 tln loss for the year. For perspective its total investment portfolio is NZ$585 bln.
Japanese exports surged in May, up from ¥7290 bln in May 2023 to ¥8277 bln in May 2024, a +13.5% jump. The jump was expected, but it came in better than anticipated. Meanwhile Japanese imports rose too but by less than expected.
We should keep an eye on the spreading impacts of excessive heat in northern India. Its inability to cool at night is life-threatening for many. The spreading heat emergency has also hit Saudi Arabia, and hundreds have reportedly died in their haj pilgrimage to Mecca.
In China, their central bank signaled it will be getting more aggressive in the way it supports the economy, a tacit move that acknowledges the tough spot they are in. They are likely to start trading government bonds in the secondary market, a change of how the central bank injects money into the economy and regulate liquidity. They are also likely to shift to a single short-term rate to guide markets, like almost all other central banks.
Tensions near the Philippines in waters claimed by China are getting worrisome with China's forces capturing a Philippines resupply vessel temporarily and forcing it away from a Philippine outpost. China's illegal claims based on their very doggy "nine-dashed-line" sea grab threatens a major international crisis.
In Australia, the RBA has been looking at the Buy-Now-Pay-Later and doesn't like what it sees. Their key concerns are not so much on the unregulated credit side, rather on the fee side. That say BNPL fees average 3.5% of the transaction cost, compared to 0.4% for debit cards, 0.8% for credit cards. BNPL makes Visa and Mastercard look good (!). A crackdown is coming, allowing retailers to pass on those costs to customers (until now the BNPL industry has prohibited that). But the RBA needs new powers to make that change.
Join us at 10:45am this morning when the Q1-2024 GDP result will be released. Markets are picking we exited recession on an overall basis, but with essentially no growth. (Of course, on a per capita basis, this result is likely to be a bit grim.)
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23% and up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is still at -49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still inverted by -85 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is little-changed at -108 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.23%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.26%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.60% and down -6 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street's was on a public holiday in its Wednesday trade (Juneteenth). Overnight, European markets were mixed with London up +0.2%, Frankfurt down -0.4% and Paris doen -0.8%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up +0.2%. Hong Kong was up an outsized +2.9% but Shanghai fell -0.4%. Singapore was up +0.1%. The ASX200 ended -0.1% lower and the NZX50 fell -0.8%.
The price of gold will start today virtually unchanged, up an insignificant +US$1 at US$2329/oz.
Oil prices are unchanged at US$80.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$84.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today a little softer at just on 61.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are -¼c softer at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally softer at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps at just on 70.7.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,049 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.
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99 Comments
We should keep an eye on the spreading impacts of excessive heat in northern India. Its inability to cool at night is life-threatening for many. The spreading heat emergency has also hit Saudi Arabia, and hundreds have reportedly died in their haj pilgrimage to Mecca.
But, but, but, climate change doesn't exist, we can't do anything about it, will someone please think about productivity and the economy, alarmist Chicken Littles, it's China's fault anyway because they emit more, etc, etc, etc ..
Not sure why this is even relevant news.. Reading into the article this will be short lived as rainfall approaches... Anyhow climate change is like seasons.. just over a longer period of time. Nature changes... The cause for climate changing being man made lacks common sense but is a political powerhouse of a tool.... However pollution can obviously be identified as man made and should be reduced..
Reading into the article this will be short lived as rainfall approaches.
Still gonna be high 40s in 5 days time...https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/06/24/1200Z/wind/surface/level/anim=off/overlay=temp/orthographic=76.48,20.49,1104/loc=74.861,31.635
Why should anything scientific be "common sense" anyway. Einstein's theory of relativity probably makes no common sense either.
Scientists predicted we would warm the planet before it even started happening. The same people that denied it then because the planet wasn't warming much, are now denying that we are the cause.
A kids mum says "don't jump on the couch, it will break". The kid says "no it wont" and keeps doing it. When the couch breaks the kid says "it wasn't me, it broke itself"
Kid: Sorry Mum, there is literally nothing I can do about the couch breaking if I keep jumping on it, it's just physics.
Mum: If you stop jumping on it, it will not break
Kid: The new sofa salesman said he'd give me $20 to keep doing it.
Mum: it's going to cost us more than $20 to fix it or get a new one
Kid: BUT I WANT THE $20 NOW!!!! *massive tantrum***
Murry... I dont think he is arguing that ..? Maybe u misread what he said..
There is a big difference between mans activity impacting something vs being the "cause" of something.
( I think everyone agrees that pollution impacts the environment ? )
To argue climate change is man made ...... lacks common sense. (like miles says....nature is always changing )
To argue that Mans pollution is profoundly impacting the planet/environment , ( including climate ) , might be the more common sense view.?
To argue that the India drought is caused by man made climate change ( as implied by agnostiums' comments)..... might lack common sense ..
I think you're being too extreme Roelly.
The scientific claims are not that man is causing climate change, but rather contributing to it at a level that is driving it at a significantly faster rate than it would otherwise be happening. the media might be pushing it the wrong way, and many are interpreting that way. Most of the reports state that human activity is driving a level of climate change beyond what would naturally occur. The statement doesn't lack common sense, but perhaps the interpretation does? It is really about proportionality. A concern I have about all this is a scientific report that indicated that it took around 10 years for any changes in activity to produce any measurable differences, which tends to suggest that because there hasn't been any significant change in mass human behaviour, things are going to get an awful lot worse yet.
I do note that Miles made the comment, but hasn't deigned to reply to my question, although a number of others have.
Anyone who knows what they're talking about?
The Climate researchers know about Climate - in that regard they are right, and the sad little apologists, wrong.
But who do you know who covers ALL things? Systems, Limits to Growth, Energy (without which nothing happens)?
I move in those research circles locally, and read all I can from elsewhere. I suggest there are south of 100 INFORMED folk in that space in this country. Many more with partial grasp, of course. Take a long look at Figure3 in this (the latest on LTG) paper:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
Yes, food production falling off a cliff NOW, could be Climate-related. But I'd say the biggest problem from here until 2030 (beyond which it is pushing he bounds of credibility to assume anything resembling BAU) is a financial implosion, as massed understanding of the unrepayable- ness of debt happens. That could take hours...
well.. I would take a bet against that..... ( when it comes to the future and predictions..... very few people know what they are talking about )
The reality is that no one knows how the next 10 yrs will unfold.... At best , its a probabilistic kinda guess.
My bet is that geopolitical tensions, inflation, energy, debt as well as wealth inequality might well be bigger "disrupters" , than climate change over the next 10 yrs.
thats my view...
"My bet is that geopolitical tensions, inflation, energy, debt as well as wealth inequality might well be bigger "disrupters" , than climate change over the next 10 yrs."
I think you miss the point...those listed 'disrupters' are all symptoms of the same system failure.
My bet is that geopolitical tensions, inflation, energy, debt as well as wealth inequality might well be bigger "disrupters" , than climate change over the next 10 yrs.
They are all related, climate change will be a catalyst and accelerator of all the other issues you mention. That's the bit that most people don't understand. There isn't a single cause and effect, it sits in a system.
The current efforts to reverse aging or at least stop aging will have a much larger impact. So will all manner of AI possibilities some anticipated and many not even conceived of. Both of these are only possibilities whereas a steady continuing in global warming is a near certainty - it is only if various feedback systems occur such as the Amazon catching fire or all permafrost melting that we need to worry about climate change in the next 10 years. Eternal life is my biggest fear.
Not going to happen, life expectancy is now going to start falling. The modern "Lifestyle", just check out all the fat kids these days coupled with increasing competition and wars over reducing resources will guarantee that. Humanity has pretty much hit peak everything, that includes peak stupidity so it pretty much all downhill from here. Take my word for it you are not going to be around come 2050.
I tend to agree Zwifter that modern life styles for many will guarantee their short, but possibly satisfying life. Although it is likely more than a few, when looking death in the face will ask "Why me?"
There will be a fairly large portion of populations who will solve the older age group problem. But there are also the segment of older who fight every day to lead healthy fit lives and will last for good long life spans, usually with little or no medical assistance.
Wars tend to deal to a lot at once although I personally favour the leadership of those who start them being targeted first. Should make for short wars!
See YouTube for the video of previously near blind mice with improved eyesight running through maze.Aging is a process that is advantageous for evolution; it is beginning to be understood and the complex process that causes it can be interferred with.At present mice only and very expensive risky treatments. So what happens when Putin & Xi and Trump live another 50 years (or longer). Or NZ adds 100 years of lifespan to every Kiwi but Bangladesh and Fiji can't afford it?
Considering the climate change argument to be a big conspiracy (when not a respected scientist) is kinda like seeing someone pointing a gun at you and instead of taking caution... believing it's a fake gun coz someone else who knows nothing about guns says so.
Telling others that it's a conspiracy is even worse.
Regardless anyone beliefs... and given the huge pollution we see humans cause the planet over a long period of time.. it's more likely true than false. .. and all trying to reduce that pollution can't be a bad idea anyway. It also pulls people together and away from capitalism to something half useful.
I don't get the conspiracy theorists who really aren't qualied wanna say everything is made up til proven otherwise. Whilst not a bad idea to be skeptical.. it's also vital to reach a balance.
Agree with your last two paragraphs, the common sense would surely be to reduce the most visible pollution.
Unfortunately this pollution is not made in this country so anything we do will essentially be self-harm until China and India can afford to green up their energy production (which China is trying hard to do).
'some' of the pollution is definitely made here.
If i was in china and saw the standard of living improvments the west experience during the industrial revolution and the damage done in the last hundred years... and NZ claiming we are too small to need to adjust.. i wouldnt bother either.. we can all burn up together.
Being the role model always works. Sort our own backyard and only then point fingers.
Not sure what pollution you are referencing, but seeing as how this is a discussion on climate change, this website says we are at 7.13 tonnes of C02 per capita, and China is at 7.44. And China makes most of our stuff for us, so a lot of their emissions are really ours.
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-per-capita/
Not sure how you can say it isn't our fault.
Give me a break, we are blameless while China and India make all our stuff?
We have outsourced our pollution so we can live a first world life, while the 'polluting' countries you mention make our stuff and live much poorer lives. It's really our pollution, just in their country.
Reducing pollution has contributed to the heat waves experienced recently. The law of Unintended Consequences strikes again.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-06-09/reduction-in-shipp…
No, climate change is not "like seasons". Seasons are like seasons. Humans burning geologically stored carbon and heating the planet has a side effect known as "climate change" . Common sense wouldn't ordinarily be confused about this fact, but like all cults, denial exists in it's own reality free bubble.
Protip they already are and have been for some time. But anyone who intentionally goes walking in the hottest part of the day in the hottest season in a desert area without any suitable preparations are literally doing it to themselves on purpose. That has always been a stupid thing to do no matter what decade or century. Much like going for a walking in sub zero temperatures on exposed mountains with dodgy weather without suitable clothing or supplies. Hence new Darwin award winners there.
Knowingly doing stupid deadly things for any reason, (in NZ it is frequently tourism that causes the most callouts on this regards), has always been deadly. Having people die as more population leads to more crowding and slower walks is also a severe issue, (Mount Everest ascents also suffer from this so they had to set strict numbers limits).
This is nothing new. Anthropogenic climate change is real. But so is a growing population willing to enter into deadly stupid events that have known high risks to human life and with the growing population those high risks become stupidly high.
This is nothing new. Anthropogenic climate change is real. But so is a growing population willing to enter into deadly stupid events that have known high risks to human life and with the growing population causing overcrowding of events those high risks become stupidly high. Poor management of events and the population who are walking in the desert area is pretty much a non issue to them though. No one is going to set a limit (like they do with Everest) or setup safe conditions to adjust the numbers walking and when. So these are accepted deaths by the govts & ruling parties in a large way. Most of the deaths were unregistered people who intentionally then avoided the safety points. The govts actually want more overcrowding so watch this space as more people die year on year regardless of the very known high risks that have always been deadly no matter which century they do it in.
Anyone who intentionally goes walking in the hottest part of the day in the hottest season in a desert area without any suitable preparations are literally doing it to themselves on purpose. That has always been a stupid thing to do no matter what decade or century. Much like going walking in sub zero temperatures on exposed mountains with dodgy weather without suitable clothing or supplies. Hence new Darwin award winners there.
Knowingly doing stupid deadly things for any reason, (in NZ it is frequently tourism that causes the most callouts on this regards), has always been deadly. Having people die as more population leads to more crowding and slower walks is also a severe issue, (Mount Everest ascents also suffer from this so they had to set strict numbers limits).
Anyone who intentionally goes walking in the hottest part of the day in the hottest season in a desert area without any suitable preparations are literally doing it to themselves on purpose. That has always been a stupid thing to do no matter what decade or century.
Hmm, maybe in past years, before climate change kicked in, this intrinsic part of their cultural and religious life was not life-threatening. Your humanity shining through loud and clear there. For someone who bangs on about society needing to care more about disabled people your lack of empathy is pretty telling, humanity shining through loud and clear /sarc/ What a piece of work.
My humanity is loud and clear. Unfortunately it is not the climate but human stupidity here that caused those deaths. Most of those who died intentionally chose to avoid the safety stops. The government should set up controlled limited access to ensure more safety and less death. This is the biggest factor that would save lives and has been proven in multiple similar events. As overcrowding is the biggest factor that directly has lead to worsening conditions and risk over time. Also start walks during the coolest part, stop restricting safety stops to registered people only and even set multiple day trips so access is not as limited and elitist. Yet lets be clear, no foreigners can control the Egyptian & Saudi Arabian governments without significant force and weight behind them.
None of the people want restrictions to make it safer either, in fact the more dangerous and deadly the more elite the experience. Hence much like Everest once it got safer people started daring themselves to make it more dangerous again, (say ascent without oxygen, without drinking water etc) regardless of the risk and harm it would cause them and their families. They don't use Darwin awards for people who die in tragedies or accidents. It has to be doing something absolutely mindblowingly stupid and it has always been intentionally stupid to go into exposed desert conditions, with poor provisions, poor shade and walk for hours on end. This was far less of an issue when there were far less people but overcrowding in exposed conditions is nightmarishly deadly at the very best of times in all history. Hence all previous desert deaths by exposure.
What would you do, whine about how deserts are deadly due to spurious reasons given a single mismanaged overcrowded event, push for even more people attending these events and buy yourself a Tesla in the safety of a temperate climate. Yeah that is so hypocritical and far less likely to save anyone, in fact you are just making it far worse by intentionally advocating for even more deadly actions without any basic minimum mitigations that would prevent deaths in the first place.
Not intending to offend, but reflecting the attitude of many who choose to do nothing in the belief that some higher power will step in to save them. It is a belief that has endured for millennia with no evidence that anything other than raw luck has an impact. If it is a bit harsh, that is the way of nature. It doesn't care. It just is. As a species we like to think we are smart, but far too many of us resist using the matter between our ears any more than absolutely necessary. It wasn't put there to counterbalance the other end of the body.
Post of the day, Murray.
I remember turning in a thermal my favourite way (right hand turn) and meeting a harrier hawk turning the other way. Doesn't he know the rules? went through my head. By the time I'd thought it, he skied out on me. We're sapient, but not as much as we think.
According to my father, pre WW2 , Baffins, Vincent’s, Harts etc best pilots didn't think, they just knew and that came down to training. Recently reading attached in his old log books what he had to know and do mechanically, propellor pitch, fuel mix, hydraulic pressures, plus navigate plus work the radio, it wasn’t easy but it had to flow in good order. Reminded me of listening to Stirling Moss after that bad Goodwood crash, he retired because he suddenly then found himself thinking how he was going to take the next corner, prior to that he just knew, it just happened instinctively.
Training is a big part of it Foxy, but it only covers instinctive first actions, but some consideration is still required. Follow-up actions need consideration and while training contributes, it is limited. Plus when things happen pilots tend to have to do several things at once to keep ahead of it all.
Orgs like Destiny's Church are far greater ones to be concerned about then any of the political orgs. The ground level child and familial abuse from those groups alone have done significant damage to communities and triggered more hate & rhetoric against inclusion. Groups of these church goers praise child abusers with one hand while trying to scare people that trans people will hurt children (while the church hosts talks by child abusers). It makes no sense if you think people act logically and rationally to evaluate information. It makes complete sense though in manipulative high control groups that extract more wealth from their poorer audience, and seek to exert more control over them and get off on the adoration.
Sadly this is the key issue. Where we left the barn door open was poorer education in NZ from the outset. It makes people more susceptible to high control group methodologies and being wealthy or seeing yourself as successful is no insulation. Sadly we have increased the lack of education and will be stripping out much of our science syllabus for a "make a assumption and then find observations that prove it regardless of the quality of those observations or likelihood of it just being correlation" practice (the same methodology that led to the 5G causes covid craze, or the claims children are more at risk around LGBTQI people, even the OP of this thread is an excellent example of this).
This gets even worse when most science subjects are being stripped from the syllabus and a general science course in high school can be skipped. Sadly outside of the rumblings of science teachers before they packed up and headed to Aus nothing will be done to right this. Teacher training now has near zero key in-depth high school science courses, and no science teaching practices taught. It is actually quite an effort to train those coming from teacher training in simple science & mathematics concepts. I have been following closely the teaching training course development, education & teaching statistics, and also seen quite a few, hired many as temp employees for certain jobs to hear more in-depth in interviews about the teaching atmosphere (bias in the lecturers, many whom are ill prepared which shows in the overall class attitudes and feedback... something not widely published in official stats). The only teaching students who had some insulation from the bad practices taught in NZ teacher training were those who held science degrees (plural) and had experience in the fields prior to switching careers. Of those there are no scholarships for them, so less will be inclined to do so and no push in increasing their numbers going into teacher training courses. So there are very few. So watch the space of NZ education system as a whole.
I have seen more children & youth crippled by NZ absolute horror of a current education system & churches then those who succeed because of them. This is evident in most of our youth surveys and criminal reports. Many literally have to succeed regardless of NZs education which is why there is such a divide between levels of socioeconomic wealth in student achievement because extra funds and support are required to do well.
Quite.
Whether man-made or not, climate change is real, measurable and is already having impacts that are incontrovertible. Folk may cherry pick scope, time, or individual events and argue that it was due to fossil fuels, or man's addiction to productivity and mass transport and energy exploitation, or incessant growth, growth, growth.
The simple fact is, ice caps are shrinking, dumping said ice into the oceans world wide - the cause is somewhat irrelevant at this point - it could be man made, it could be sun spots or solar flares, it could just be the long term geological evolution of the planet.
That will not matter when the water these icecaps devolve into raise the sea level by metres over relatively short periods of time (geologically speaking). It would be very surprising (to me at least) if in the next decade we don't have one or more pacific island nations submerged, and NZ coastlines eroded by several metres from where they are today.
And yet, to your point, we still have people that put a premium on coastal properties, who still wish to purchase massive utes, who prefer to simply bemoan climate change as not being real or someone else's problem (apparently China's per many commentators on this site).
These same people will be the ones with their hands out to be 'bought out' by the taxpayer when their coastal Mcmansion is swallowed by the ocean or swept away on a floodplain. They're the ones bemoaning the insurance premiums that their flood or coastal prone property now accrue - frankly they should be thankful they can get insurance at all - it's a one way bet over time.
Whatever you want to call it, we aught to be acting and re-acting much more quickly to this threat - but successive governments lack the political will, and our current 'Green' party is anything but - rather than being a clarion call for action on Climate change they've devolved into a group of woke special interest activist nutjobs - the one respected politician they had who actually tried to get (and did get some) stuff done quit in disgust.
The time for a climate change focussed party is nigh - I just hope we get our collective act together before we're underwater. Other than that, can anyone recommend a company to invest in that are building Arks?
Perhaps they ought to title it a climate eventuality party given the natural erosion of coastlines and shifting of rivers through floods etc has been going on for millennia before humans started burning fossil fuels, and being everyone around to the inevitable changes that cannot be us mere humans who feel so powerful and egotistic that we can prevent, block, dam, or divert any large scale geological catastrophe, whatever the time scale of it may be.
The first thing I want to say is that I believe climate change is real and attributable in large part to human activity.
the second is that it’s complete rubbish to cite a single piece of news and debate its significance without context. The number of deaths quoted is not out of step with past reports
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034123001776?via…
Availability bias distorts the importance or otherwise of events.
i get that it’s:
1. Fun to provoke people with a different view, and
2. good to get important ideas exposure
But they both risk distracting from the main message, which is that we need to act differently to mitigate climate change.
The other distractions, like trivial human social issues, need to be avoided and kept unlinked from the main message- something the left refuses to do.
i await the suggestion that there should be a rainbow painted part of the Hajj route to make all pilgrims feel at ease.
Science indicates that if atmospheric temperatures exceed 50 degrees C then it becomes literally impossible for the body to cool itself. This is occurring more and more often and there will likely be belt around the equator which will become unliveable. But religion is driven some behaviour which literally threatens peoples lives. That is unacceptable too.
Yes, that's the temp/humidity combo that a sedentary, unclothed, healthy individual could theoretically survive without core body temperature rising uncontrollably. Anything near that temperature would be extremely uncomfortable for a healthy person. If you are young, old, have health problems, temperature lower than this could be fatal. Many "Interest" commenters are immune to the normal laws of physics though, so they'll be ok while people die elsewhere.
Interesting they also note significant numbers of those who died had severe medical issues that would put them at risk of death even performing daily activities, (let alone the Hajj).
Number of total death (mortality rate) by year and city during the Hajj (2012 – 2017).*.
Year Total Deaths
2012 1315
2013 637
2014 657
2016 714
2017 657
Looks like anyone using the Hajj for climate change points is just causing more harm to the issue and muddying the waters. A better point to make would be to focus on the smaller ecological effects in those areas caused by climate change that are far more significant in the long run (especially related to species survival, food supplies, water & logistics). Sadly the deaths at the Hajj, like many in desert nations, often get little effect by local govts but are used for props by others in temperate climates. You cannot prevent the deaths without effective change and ensuring more controlled access. Nobody in that area really wants that though. Like scaling Everest it is probably not advisable to do the Hajj with a severe heart condition, immune and respiratory failure already and then try to do it in heavily crowded conditions that put you at risk of severe exposure for long periods. Protip don't do something so deadly to healthy humans that your death becomes a near certainty. It will hardly drive change. It can even be written off as natural in those same medical centers because to go into strenuous activity in exposed conditions will likely risk death.
So what solar fluctuations caused the last decades rapid heating? And don't bother dodging with solar cycle 25, the peak of the cycle is only 1watt/m2 greater than the trough.
What is your evidence for global temperatures being 4degC higher 2000 years ago, or did you make it up?
Quite frankly if you don't believe in climate change you are a bit of an idiot. The only thing wrong is the ability to get a decent prediction on it because its a positive feedback loop and the change is going faster than predicted. Its a complex system we are not going to get an accurate prediction. We have already hit the 1.5C max target, give it a year or two and it will be 2.0C. Its past the point of no return so not even worth worrying about it now anyway, change needed to start happening back in the early 80's.
Quite frankly if you undertake a desert walk for more then 6 hours with a severe cardiovascular condition, without any chance to stop & rest and without adequate water or provisions you are already an idiot. The real tragedy is that the highly likely outcome will be a loss to the family.
Using the above as an example of climate change is not only moronic but utterly self defeating in aim. Next time try to learn it is easy to spot misinformation and really bad arguments. Sure most don't have the ethics to speak out against misinformation but we do not do better with a more poorly educated population if we use misinformation tactics to advocate for sustainable changes to limit global anthropogenic climate change. We need people to be able to spot and call out blatant misinformation tactics like the ones used by yourself and the OP. If you want people to understand anthropogenic climate change learn to understand it yourself and stop with the misinformation tactics that not only worsen the public information understanding of science. You are also making more of the public more susceptible to greater fraud (often for the opposite side of your argument & for unscientific conspiracies inc far more population risks to health) as well as turn a great many away from your statements because you opted to use bad faith tactics and methods to try to score points.
If you want to educate then look to the drivers of most people's lifestyles. Meet most the public outside of your bubble and see the gaps in science understanding and take measures to improve NZ standards of STEM education. Yes being ethical takes time but it also means people are far less likely to start down the opposite path. For example burning wood & doing burnoffs because they are convinced it is better for the environment, social cohesion & health (given their existing misinformation they hear more closely) then using renewable electricity. It also pays to help improve the standard of discourse away from misinformation tactics.
I thought the Q&A segment of Conway’s speech was quite entertaining. Question after question asking (more or less) ‘why aren’t you lowering rates when it’s clear the economy is stuffed’? Felt like one of the comment threads on here!
On a more serious note, the most interesting thing I found in the research they published was their hunch that our relatively poor performance - the amount of economic ‘pain’ per unit of disinflation - has a lot to do with the dependence of our economy on imported labour. When combined with the long and tight border restrictions it created an extremely tight labour market and strong broad based services inflation. Our services inflation fingerprint looks most like the much stronger US economy but without the robust growth, so it’s no surprise that people are getting grumpy and, in many cases, leaving.
The big differences between US and NZ are:
- Existing debt of US businesses and households are shielded from higher interest rates - businesses locked in long-term when rates were low and households have 30-year fixed rate mortgages (avg yield 3% vs 6.1% in NZ)
- US Govt is deficit spending at around 6% of GDP - pumping money (net) into the economy
So, consumer demand in the US remains strong and they have growth enabled by govt deficit spending and confident business investment (real estate aside).
Despite these obvious differences our service inflation figures are gliding down at a similar rates.
One has to wonder whether RBNZ destroying the economy is happening in parallel to inflation subsiding. The image that comes to mind is a baby in the backseat of a car with a toy steering wheel.
Another major difference that may be considered is where their 'money' ends up....the primary investment in NZ is RE with all the subsequent downsides to the economy whereas the in the US it is the equity market.
We shoot ourselves in the foot before the race begins.
Agreed, these are systemic advantages that the US has over us.
The deficit spending is all well and good when you have the reserve currency, we can't play that trick without importing inflation in equal measure, but we can do something about about our banking industry, legislate for long term mortgages that are non-recourse.
Right now with the housing market sliding is probably not the right time to force this on the banking sector, but when it finds it's new floor we could make these changes.
Actually, it IS the time.
We are entering a period of permanent de-growth (it's a physic thing, money cannot change that, any more than you can buy your way out of cancer) and in that, anything constructed to fit/facilitate growth, is moot.
Interest-charging is parasitic on energy flows, 100%. And totally non-productive, and easy to do (hold your zero key down and you, too, can print a trillion dollars). This is why societies operating on less energy/resource throughput, often outlaw usury.
Maybe they know more than we do..??
maybe they are concerned that if they lower rates , our dollar will plunge ? ( They have stockpiled foreign reserves for a reason ? )
Thats a possible reason to explain the RBNZs' reluctance to lowering interest rates ?? ( I cant think of any other reason ? )
"baby with a toy steering wheel" ..... thats' smacking them in the head ..Jfoe..!!
I agree, which is why I don't talk about RBNZ needing to 'lower rates' like that it's the answer to much at all. Our current account deficit, relatively high offshore debt, and our old-fashioned, dogmatic central bank effectively mean that we don't really have an independent monetary policy at all.
The current account deficit released yesterday was a decent bit over the RBNZ forecast in the May MPS.
So, my money is now firmly on a negative GDP Q1 result. I'm going -0.3 on GDP(E) QoQ and -0.2 on GDP(P) QoQ. It's the GDP(P) figure that hogs the headlines. I might be (just) wrong on GDP(P).
I also think Q4.2023 figures will be revised down based on a bit of reverse engineering on the current account deficit figures.
Yes there will be a substantial fall in rental yield which is not just good for renters but the economy.
My rental business will weather this period but it will not be a good investment for a year or two. I have owned rentals for a long time and so my LVR is better than most but those new to the rental business are going to go through one of the worst periods that I can remember.
Good for the country and therefore good for me on a social if not economic basis.
In Japan, their huge agricultural bank, Norinchukin, has said it has made a massive mistake in its bond portfolio, betting that rates would stay down.
Chinese govt bonds are probably one of the few groups that’ve had a positive return in the last half decade. The 10-year yield was at 3.5% in 2020; it’s now closer to 2%. Imagine the carry + appreciation if you simply bought for income back then Link
I was recently reading that so far this year the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have accounted for 76% of the index gain
Nvidia increased its value by $1 trillion in one month Apple increased by $700 billion despite declining revenue and net income
This is all about the frenzy to buy stocks that are involved in AI
The question is will AI lead to companies making substantial increases in productivity and profit
Or are we looking at another Tulip boom and bust
Looks a bit like the NZ housing market, House prices never go down!!!!!!!
x.com/profstevekeen//ProfSteveKeen/status/1803100304239407163?s=19
Quote Dr. Richard A. Werner @DrRichardWerner ·23h
I recently published a little book called "How to achieve long-term sustainability", (Pallas Athene Books, Budapest, ISBN 978-963-573-208-1, only 10 EUR!) which argues that we should create abundance and social, economic and environmental sustainability through high economic… Show more
Finally, in the financial world, which is also a virtual world, interest can compound totally out of proportion to the laws of thermodynamics. I am surprised Steve hasn't thought this through. He should realise that we do not need to charge usury in the financial sector, and that usury is ultimately not sustainable. Clearly, compounding interest is a virtual, purely theoretical mathematical calculation and not bound by the laws of thermodynamics. Saying that the bankers themselves, flying around in their private jets and living in their seaside villas, are, after all, bound by the laws of thermodynamics does NOT justify the charging of high compounding interest!
Coincidence - I referred Dan to Keen, this morning.
Not sure that Keen argues for charging high interest - he argues for living within Limits; he argues for relating energy with money.
Looks like the dignity restored to the landlords was partly taken from the disabled.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/as-low-as-2-an-hour-govt-scraps-…
$2, even $3 & $5 and hour before tax means you are actually paying to work. It costs far more in transport and food supply for the work environments then earned over a day.
No wonder so many see that and go "I cannot afford to work". They don't have a disposable income as it is and already are stuck with pulling teeth. "How can I afford to pay more money to go to a job then I earn for the work".
But even Labour with a majority saw fit to leave the blatant discrimination written into employment laws and denial of any income support to much of the disabled population around. They had 6 years and in that time they actually reduced the effective incomes of disabled people overall and even punished their support workers for going to court for pay equity. Now disabled people are liable for the lack of support funding by the govt thanks to labour as well. How kind.
Remember no political party acts in the interests of disabled people. Every major policy action taken in the last 10 years has actually lead to worsening conditions and the continued inclusion of exceptions of disabled people from the same rights and equity others have e.g. BoR, the ministry of disabled people, health and disability review that excluded any inclusion of disabled people, NZ building acts & NZTA/WK initiatives that remove transport access completely while being branded as accessible (proven in their own studies) etc. If you think $2 an hour is hard to live on try what is available for many disabled people in NZ and live on zero. No wonder the premature death rates are so high.
Sadly the jobs stay. It is cost effective to pay people $2 an hour. Many of those who have more charitable funding or ACC will be able to pay the money to work, abet sacrificing other living needs. The sad thing is much like with our immigration system, even if you offer wages that border on criminal (or step over the border) people will still want or need the work. Hence so many visa work applications also offer to work for free just to get in and then get residency. People actually want to work for many different reasons, no matter the significant personal costs.
Hence by the same token if an employer could get away with underpaying migrants they do and have which we have seen in much of the AEWV, fast track visas, and even the Green party latest round of severe employment breaches that go past slightly criminal into directly abusive, openly breaching many criminal laws & theft. Many employees accept illegal conditions for work as well, along with wages that do not meet the basic costs of living, because of similar reasons. It is just that NZ is built on a low wage high cost of living economy that widely accepts wage discrimination, abuse, and theft with even more of the resulting harm spilling over to affect our health system.
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