Here's our summary of key economic events over night that affect New Zealand, with news US Treasury yields have soared after the American labour market data updates out this morning.
Markets were anticipating a 'good' rise in non-farm payroll jobs of +185,000. But in fact this headline number was up +272,000. Even more impressive, hourly pay was up +5.3% from a year ago, weekly wages up +5.6% on the same basis.
But as regular readers know, we also look at the 'actual' data. There are now +917,000 more people on employer payrolls in May than in April. Overall there are now 161.3 mln people employed, although that is little-changed from April. So all the gain is a shift from the unincorporated self-employed on to employer payrolls. That may be why the pay gains are well above inflation.
Whatever way you slice it, it is a pretty good result, and markets are assuming the Fed will look at this and see pressures that are unlikely to quell inflation. The bond and FX markets reacted, but the equity market went quiet at unchanged levels (although they may argue this gain was already priced in - see below).
The March rise in American consumer debt levels was a pretty modest +$6.3 bln from the prior month and April was expected to catch-up with a +$11 bln but still-modest rise. But in the event, April consumer debt levels only rose +US$6.4 bln again, up just +1.5% from a year ago. There is no evidence that Americans are stretching themselves further with additional debt obligations.
Meanwhile American household net worth rose +3.3% or +US$5.1 tln to more than US$160 tln at the end of March 2024 from December 2023. The value of household equity holdings increased +$3.8 tln, while the value of real estate held by households rose by +US$900 bln. In complete contrast, American household liabilities were up only +US$100 bln to US$20.6 tln. There is a huge amount of overall resilience here. (We are not suggesting this is evenly spread, because clearly it isn't.)
Canada also released labour market data overnight. Their payrolls rose +27,000 and more than the +22,000 expected. But it was all part-time jobs that rose and by +62,000, and full-time jobs shrank -36,000. Their jobless rate rose to 6.2%. They are probably not happy with this outcome but at least their central bank has cut its official interest rate and that may bring some relief to employment in the rest of 2024.
Perhaps proving important context to the zooming container freight rates, exports from China soared +7.6% year-on-year in May and beating market expectations of a +6% rise. It was also up from a +1.5% rise in the previous month. It's the steepest rise in outbound shipments since January, fueled by a lower base from last year and sustained overseas demand. The big export destinations were ASEAN countries (+9.7%) and South America, especially Brazil (+26%). Elsewhere litlle-change or decreases. China's imports were weak however, virtually unchanged from a weak May a year ago.
China's foreign exchange reserves rose to US$3.23 tln in May from US$3.2 tln in April and above market forecasts. Their gold reserves were unchanged at 72.8 mln troy ounces, an unusual pause because they had risen for 18 consecutive months. But the rise in the gold price saw the value of their holdings rose to almost US$171 bln.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy rate unchanged at 6.5% and said inflation's pressure at 4.85% is not changing much. Their policy target is a very generous 2%-6%. But food prices are rising and were up +8.7% in April from a year ago. Given their heat and water stress levels, this is an economic consequence they will struggle with.
EU GDP rose its most in Q1-2024 since Q3-2022, but to be fair the annual growth from a year ago was only +0.5% for the EU, slightly less for the Euro Area (+0.4%).
In Russia, their central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 16% for the fourth consecutive time overnight. But they also said another hike is probably coming soon. Domestic war-related demand continues to outstrip the current capacity levels that the Russian economy can achieve, driving an imbalance between supply and demand, and lifting inflation risks. War distortions are building quite quickly there. If they remove their central bank chief because they don't like the message, the full slip into fantasy will be complete in Russia.
World food prices were up only marginally in May but are still running below the levels of each of the past three years. Global food security seems ok and at prices that are affordable (even if there are pockets of real stress and distress). Dairy prices are one area prices are rising and they have been for eight straight months. Meat prices are low and relatively stable.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.44% and up +16 bps from yesterday on the changing views following the US labour market reports. A week ago this rate was 4.50% so not quite back to that level yet. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is unchanged at -44 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also little-changed at -73 bps. But their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is much less at -93 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is still up at 4.33% and +7 bps higher than yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged as usual at 2.32%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.70% and unchanged from this time yesterday. But it is down -17 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street was down -0.1% in Friday trade on the S&P500. That makes it +0.9% higher than a week ago. European markets were all down -0.5% in overnight trade. Tokyo ended its Friday trade little-changed to be a mere -0.1% lower for the week. Hong Kong was down -0.6% yesterday but up +0.5% for the week. Although Shanghai finished unchanged yesterday it was down a sharpish -1.1% for the week. Singapore was unchanged. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade up +0.5% and up +2.1% for the week.The NZX50 ended down a full -1.0% on Friday, but was up a very creditable +2.6% for the week.
The Fear & Greed index has moved back into the "neutral" range as risk appetites improve But it is only a small improvement..
The price of gold will start today down a sharpish -US$76 from yesterday at US$2303/oz. And they are down -US$23 from a week ago at this time.
Oil prices have been somewhat volatile in the past 24 hours but are currently unchanged from this time yesterday up at just on US$75.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is up slightly at US$79.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were +$1.50 higher back then.
The Kiwi dollar starts today sharply lower from yesterday at just on 61.1 USc, and down nearly -1c as the USD suddenly strengthens again all-comers. A week ago this rate was 61.4 so a -¼c dip since then. Against the Aussie we are down slightly at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are almost -½c softer at 56.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.6, down -60 bps from yesterday but only down -10 bps from this time last week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,031 and down -2.9% from this time yesterday. But it is up +2.7% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.
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99 Comments
It's odd that people see Russia as some mystery. They have clearly communicated their motivations, red lines, and intentions for a long time now. The same is true of Israel. You only have to listen to their politicians to understand exactly why and what they intended to do. For some reason nobody wants to take these people at their word even though they have demonstrated that they do what they said they would. I can only conclude that because people don't like what they hear they refuse to believe it. Or more correctly, our leaders do hear and believe what is said but because it is disagreeable they create some convoluted narrative for their voters to avoid addressing the issues directly.
Russia is mid way through its third summer offensive. Belatedly they recall their own recognised military history that because of the Dnieper, south eastern Ukraine is best advanced on from the north using the river to protect the west flank and their own border the east. To do that though Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, must be secured. Unless Russia has massive reserves and armaments to deploy, and judged by the great difficulty in subduing much smaller towns, it doesn’t look likely Russia has either time or means to get much further than where they presently are at.
The problem for leaders like Putin is they invariably assemble a cadre of advisors and experts who them what they want to hear, irrespective of how grounded in reality it is (this can happen to any government, but it's much worse under dictatorships).
In this instance, Putin was led to believe Ukraine's population would happily be folded back into Russia's umbrella, and it's leadership could be quickly and easily replaced by a Russia friendly regime.
Now the plans being made up and modified as they go.
V D Hanson makes that point very well in The Second World Wars. The totalitarian commanders, Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Stalin had to remain infallible and to do that they could not risk questioning or analysis of their decisions. Whereas the democratic leaders subject to a parliament or congress, had to listen, answer questions and be accountable. Now that hardly resulted in perfection but at least there was a chance that someone might stand up and say this is nuts, there is a better way.
Indeed:
This should make anyone who understands what's happening want to throw up: the US ambassador says the US sanctions China and tries to stop Chinese technological development because... China is a "bully". https://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3265694/bullying-china-spurs-us-limit-advanced-tech-exports-american-ambassador
World's biggest bully justifying his bullying as needed to prevent bullying In the same speech he also said "we do not intend to be number two", and that's the real reason of course. They'll always try to disguise this under hypocritical and frankly repulsive altruistic purposes, but the truth of the matter is that it's all about egoistical power: they want to remain top dog and will use all methods for that purpose, including war or in this instance trying their best to impoverish 1.4 billion people. Presenting this under an altruistic "good guy" mantle makes me feel sick. Link
Among the Chinese policies the envoy found “pernicious” were exports by Chinese companies to support Russia’s industrial base in its war with Ukraine.
The armed conflict, now in its third year, has brought the US and Europe closer together and led Washington last month to sanction nearly two dozen Chinese companies.
“China is increasingly the factory of the Russian war machine,” said Daleep Singh of the National Security Council, speaking separately on Thursday at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security.
The best option Ukraine has in trying to push back the Russians is the use of drones, most of which are Chinese in origin and modified by Ukraine to carry explosive ordnance, mainly RPG-7 warheads.
These can kill a tank or armored vehicle, or even the occasional command center or air defense radar. Ukraine has been firing them in the thousands and they are moderately effective.
It is noteworthy that the Chinese keep selling them to the Ukrainians even though their friend and ally is Russia. It is also interesting that the Russians say nothing about it. Yet it seems that the fastest way for Russia to end the Ukraine war would be to stop the supply of drones. Link
Yes exactly. It’s meaningless, pointless. Propaganda at its worst. Anyone with half a brain can figure out that for every strike there will be at least one counter strike. That’s why the USA deployed initially the SAC now replaced by the subs. The blasts of today will make the tragedies of Japan in 1945, look like minor dust bowls. No nation will escape. Striking first, striking at all is just the start, not the end.
ST. PETERSBURG, June 7. /TASS/. Russia is looking at all scenarios of the special military operation, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
The moderator of the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Sergey Karaganov, called for more intensive actions during the special military operation or eve for louder nuclear rhetoric. "At some point, Russia will have to begin to be in a hurry," he said. "So, please don’t ignore my and my friends’ arguments."
"We don’t ignore anything. We are looking at all scenarios," Putin said. "Thank you for these recommendations."
Well the unremarkable Lincoln Chafee did remark that “in the world of diplomacy, some things are better left unsaid.” That is soft pedal in itself. History clearly demonstrates what is unsaid is far more the danger than what is said. For instance, what Fuhrer Adolf didn’t say to PM Neville or Premier Joseph.
Not so long ago you volunteered that the prospect of being numbered in a military ballot, was to you, very frightening. Ok then just take a small step forward from your position there and think about this. Imagine if you had survived, Tarawa, Iwo Jima, Okinawa or were a prisoner of war of the opposition, or even a parent or spouse of a loved one in those circumstances, daresay you might well think of Hiroshima as being the right decision. I don’t know about Senator Lindsay’s involvement, but like anybody else, best opinion is best left to those that were involved.
Wow you are funny, Russia's GDP up like 3.8% this year, making us look hopeless. All they have to do is pipe gas out of the ground to earn millions of dollars a day. The USA blew up the pipeline but they are unstoppable, a bit like China as well. When India, China and Russia join forces you have trouble, that's a big chunk of the total world population.
Seriously? All this "growth" is state spending on weapons, not welfare, or useful infrastucture. Each new tank built will be atomised on a field in Ukraine within weeks. A 16% central bank rate is not a sign of a healthy economy!
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202406072766/russias-central…
All that time a scared Vlad spent in his positive air pressure covid bunker must have fried his brain? This little vid of the fear little Vlad instills in his officials gives a clue to the inner working of this mafia empire. The spy chief is virtually messing himself.
Huh? I think you're confusing US warnings, with Russian newspeak? P.s. note the date.
"Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Wednesday said Russia doesn’t plan to invade Ukraine and blamed the US for "aggressive plans.""
American household liabilities were up only +US$100 bln to US$20.6 tln. There is a huge amount of overall resilience here.
US Govt deficit spending adds to private sector financial assets (leading to reduced private sector debt). The last time the US ran a budget surplus (24 years ago) the economy crashed. It's the same in NZ of course - Govt can only run a budget surplus when our current account is close to balancing and the private sector is feasting on bank credit to pump up the price of land and weatherboard shacks.
"... and the private sector is feasting on bank credit to pump up the price of land and weatherboard shacks. "
Pretty neatly sums up why the single biggest thing the NZ government and RB could do for NZ Inc. would be to redirect the feasting to more productive activities.
But without a complete overhaul of the tax system to spread tax over all income sources - thereby providing the bulk of Kiwis with many more choices on how they earn, spend and save - and further capital and lending controls from the RB to direct bank credit into more productive assets, NZ ain't going anywhere where we haven't been in the last 30+ years.
Just an aside - I find it very odd no one seems to be interested in discussing why an overhaul of our tax system would provide more choices.
Having choices is in fact an element of freedom (and fairness). The bulk of NZ kiwis, especially younger ones, have a single income source, and lowering the tax on that single income source would provide them with many more choices (freedom) about where they spend or save it. But there's no free lunch. The gap would need to be picked up by the far fewer that have income from multiple sources. And when the few have income from multiple sources, the few have many more choices than the bulk who we refer to as 'wage slaves'.
So much for freedom, ay? The few control the lives of so many and the many simply have no idea that every three years they can change their lives for the better, forever. And yet they never chose to do so. Why is that?
Is there a chance the cost of shipping is rising because of a new mismatch in and out of China. In the past their imports were also very high so ships coming in could charge freight each way. Now maybe as empty ships come in they need to charge higher rates to cover empty space in? Just a thought.
Figures I'm looking at show the US unemployment rate slowly rising. Its currently 4.0% over there and slowly increasing. Being an election year don't expect anything other than positive news out of the US. I thought BRICS was a bit of a joke when it started, now I see its slowly gaining momentum. The USA is living on borrowed time, its already past the tipping point due to its actions for decades on the world stage.
I guess 'soon' can mean many things.
Regardless, I think it is now inevitable that they will. Counting member countries, those that have applied, and those that have expressed interest in joining, there are something like 50 countries. The larger the bloc, the more the network effect, and the quicker the move away from trading almost exclusively in USD.
Geopolitically, it appears the US is inadvertently encouraging the process.
Yep nothing like the "Common Enemy" approach, its been a USA specialty for years, first it the communists and when that petered out its now the Chinese. The whole world has now seen the problems dealing in the USD and the fact they can effectively freeze your account, why would you put up with that ? You wouldn't put up with that if you walked into your bank and they said sorry you cannot have your money today.
The old rule was "no country with a McDonalds attacks another country with a McDonalds".
Russia broke that law, and has a tendency to invade or attack it's closest neighbors.
India and China have an active conflict border. Most of the rest of East and Southeast Asia have strained military relationships with China.
Trade can certainly act to relieve tension or deter conflict, but it's very hard to overlook the more tenuous temperament of authoritarian dictatorships.
As we see a continuation of conflict, BRICs will initially remain fairly robust/confident. Longer term, much harder to be certain.
Black swan events may impact this, either way.
You need to reflect upon the number of US military bases dotted throughout the world and their purpose.
And while the hourly earnings data showed an unexpected increase, with both the monthly and annual prints coming in hotter than expected...
... this is where things quickly took a turn for the bizarre because while the headline payrolls number was clearly - and purposefully - stellar, the unemployment unexpectedly increased from 3.9% to 4.0%.
How is this possible? Simple: as we explained earlier, it had to do with the staggering divergence between the Establishment and Household Surveys, with the former surging 272K while the latter tumbling 408K...
.... ... which means that the gap between the always upward sloping (and market moving) Establishment Survey and the flatlined Household Survey, which hasn't made a new high since late 2023 and is back to where it was last summer, is now i a stunning 9 million, the biggest on record!
Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong agreed, and not only that, but she also agreed with our recurring contention that the Household Survey is far more accurate...
“May’s jobs report presented contradictory views of the labor market, as we expected. The establishment survey shows robust gains in nonfarm payrolls — yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%. We believe the latter currently offers a closer approximation of reality than payrolls, as BLS’ model for estimating business births and deaths – which added 231,000 jobs to the nonfarm-payrolls print in May – is lagging the reality of surging establishment closures and falling business formation. We think the underlying pace of current job gains is likely less than 100,000 per month.”
... not least of all because it accounts for the grotesque data manipulation by the BLS in the form of the ridiculous monthly Birth/ Death adjustments, which even Bloomberg now admits are artificially inflating the monthly jobs print by about 100K. To get a sense of just how unprecedented this statistically manipulation is, consider that the birth-death model has added 1.9 million jobs since last April, or a whopping 56% of all payrolls added during this period. This means that more than half of all "job gains" in the past year are from an excel spreadsheet which assumes that 1.9 million new jobs were created from new businesses. Link
Trafigura Has $1.7 Billion Headache After Surge in Overdue Debts
A solid headline profit for commodity trading giant Trafigura Group masked something unusual beneath the surface: a significant chunk of its customers have stopped paying.
You can have high employment and a bad economy.
What's possibly worse is the rates of youth unemployment
The future looks pretty scary on that front. Ai is likely to mean businesses need less staff and the obvious initial hit will be to the younger generation and unskilled workers.
As ai improves productivity without needing workers economy's may look great but will have increasing % of unemployed peeps.
Humans are crazy.
Without those younger people coming through and having experience handed down, we may face a precipitous drop off in skills base across our economy.
This has already occured in trades after 20+ years of poor apprentice systems and a gravitation towards white collar jobs, but we'll get something similar everywhere.
As AI removes white collar jobs, we'll potentially have a labour force of menial jobs which are actually often the hardest to mechanise.
No Mps from either side from what I could see.
Yeah Jones and Co, despite the numbers and positive energy today, I don't think those idiots will listen. Though I think National will be worried by the large number of middle class "normal" people today. In fact, I think older people probably equalled or outnumbered the younger more radical looking types.
Wow they actually found a way to get people on Te Huia ... wonders never cease to occur.
(I joke, I joke - I'd be in favour of more passenger rail, but there's more chance of me becoming the 52nd president of the United States than there is of seeing any decent passenger rail down here in Christchurch)
If you take away the intangibles the RONS come nowhere near a positive BCR.
Most of Te Huias's costs are contributions to network costs that are there , wether it runs or not.
As to intangibles , there a quite a few disabled people that use the service and they were at the meetings expressing their need for it . obviously the benefit to them is way above the fare value , , how do we account for that.The alternative cost , a modified van form Hamilton to Auckland . more likely they just dont make the trip.
I've used public transport in 5 continents. And and know that our public transport is pretty poor in comparison.
In the UK, Bristol to London can take as little as 71 minutes, and trains run every 30 minutes. Easily 10,000 people per day.
We need a decent service from Hamilton to Auckland, not one that has two trains per day and takes 2 and a half hours to travel 120 km. Then we might have more people using the service.
No idea, it just seems to be floated as a pipe dream from time to time and then disappear.
I don't go out to the badlands of Rolleston much - someone once told me it's the most indebted place in NZ relative to incomes, unsure if true, very soulless anyway - but some of the closer towns e.g. Lincoln are connected via cycleway now (on an ebike would probably be about 45 mins each way). I know a few people who do that commute every day, and considering traffic build up from these satellite towns it's probably just about the same time it would take to drive.
My "rail dream" for Chch would be something that goes south (so through Rolleston) then on to Ashburton, Timaru etc. Would be great to be able to go to Dunedin from Chch for example on a decent speed train. Obviously dreams are free.
For anybody interested in our pumping net immigration:
In the last three months, net 113,000 people have departed NZ.
In the last six months, net 51,000 people have departed NZ.
In the last year, net 56,000 people have arrived in NZ. In other words, if the large net inward migration we had second half of 2023 was to resume for the next six months, the yearly net figure would be 56,000.
This puts population increase at 1% via immigration, 1.4% if you include births and deaths. Both net positive yearly figures are currently in decline.
Private credit - pvte debt or direct lending - is any lending that is not in the form of a security such as a bond. On the rise in Aussie. We're at the end of the line.
It’s a winning trade that is being pitched around the world to investors of all sizes – from little old ladies to sovereign wealth funds.
The opportunity is earning double-digit returns by lending money to small businesses, big companies and real estate developers that have been left hanging by the banks. Lending money is reliable, stable and thanks to higher interest rates, is a compelling investment.
Private credit, or direct lending, is in a boom phase that is attracting wall-to-wall media coverage, billions of dollars in capital and has turned into a lucrative money spinner for asset managers that are seizing the moment.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/fortunes-to-be-made-as…
Let's recap:
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Our economic system produces poorer & poorer long-term economic growth due to low population growth & stagnant productivity
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To achieve politically acceptable growth rates in the short-term, we continue to leverage up both in the private and public sector
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Real interest rates drop further to keep the system afloat: CBs accommodate this process with monetary policy actions
This ''prosperity'' model encourages the ''wealth illusion'' effect: asset prices rapidly increase as a result of cheaper and cheaper real interest rate.
All clear so far, but this system depends on one key factor.
Incremental leverage must be accessible at ever lower real interest rates.
This ensures both the ‘‘affordability’’ of incrementally higher debt levels & the continuation of the wealth illusion paradigm: Link
...headline number was up +272,000. Even more impressive, hourly pay was up +5.3% from a year ago, weekly wages up +5.6% on the same basis.
US jobs market has bulldozed expectations multiple times, due to prevailing demographics OECD countries are moving from a capital constrained economy to a labour constrained economy.
Ski gear sales are a good indicator of the direction of discretionary spend.
Piles of ski jackets spill from the aisles at Aldi in McGraths Hill, with mountains of boxes of boots destined for the slopes instead collecting dust on the shelf.
“I remember when snow day was absolute madness at Aldi,” one posted.
“I was surprised to see so much stock a few days after launch,” the original poster replied.
“They should donate the extras to the poor regional towns in the mountains that get so cold that these are *inside the house* clothes,” another added.
https://www-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.news.com.au/travel/t…
But but but I thought Aussie was milk honey and ever increasing house prices?
I used to ski QTown , now I fish / ski Turangi... personally I enjoy it more because I like the fishing BUT its not putting money into many pockets... Its just reality... skiing is expensive, even our north island fields are insolvent
just a thought what price QTown houses without skiing?
just a thought what price QTown houses without skiing?
It's 14% of their economy apparently, so probably about the same.
It'd appear population growth is the key price driver there.
I'd probably also say the average Queenstown dweller is more insulated from a recession than the average Kiwi, and will still be skiing.
Interesting...1964 Benmore project ...wage 25 pounds per week... on site rent 10 shillings/week ...local town rent 3 pounds /week ... Some able to save 20 pounds a week... (4min mark in video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5L5bjdTOcA Its in the bag! ....lol
"The average Kiwi has to work nearly three times harder to pay off the average house than they did 50 years ago.
Figures compiled by Bernard Hickey of interest.co.nz show that to pay for the average home of $350,000, someone on the average wage has to work for 17,680 hours.
Based on a 40-hour working week and not allowing for spending on anything else or taking interest into account, that works out to about eight-and-a-half years' hard slog.
In 1960, by comparison, the average home cost just $6639. Although the average wage was a measly $1.05 an hour, compared with $19.79 today, paying off a house would take 6332 hours, or just a little over three years.
The numbers prove that "those people who say 'in the old days, we had it much tougher than you young punks' are wrong," Hickey points out."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/its-hard-labour-to-own-a-house/SRPIEJI6CG….
Why would you not take interest into account.
Many other things have gotten crazy cheaper in the same timeframe, but that's partially due to the automation advantages of factory assembly, and mostly via really cheap foreign labour.
Buildings are one of the only things NZ manufactures at reasonable scale. Trades are in high demand (present environment excluded), with reasonably high wages. Such a manufactured item is going to be significantly less affordable for the general populace since the 60s.
There is not a job shortage in the US. There is a worker shortage. The worker shortage is not due to a lack of available workers. It is due to government programs and welfare disincentivizing working age males to get jobs because it’s too easy to live off of the system. Most of the jobs they are taking are part time and someone with 2 part time jobs is counted twice. Wages are rising to compensate for inflation and small businesses are closing at an alarming rate in the state with even more arbitrarily elevated minimum wage.
Basic economic consequences
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