Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news inflationary pressures shows signs of easing in today's data releases in the shadow of yesterday's highish US CPI release, and there is some talk of rate cuts elsewhere.
First up in the US, the number of new jobless claims fell last week, consigning the prior week's jump to the 'anomaly' basket. There are now 1.9 mln people still on these benefits, virtually unchanged from the prior week level.
The rise in American producer prices was also less than expected in March, coming in just +2.1% higher than a year ago. A year ago they were rising at a +2.7% rate. Producer price rises are not a major factor in their consumer price inflation.
The USDA lowered its price estimates for most key agricultural commodities, especially grains, as good harvests worldwide more than cover global food demand. Global food prices were already running at 3 year lows. Specifically, the Americans are expected to import more beef and produce less milk.
Today the Americans had a UST 30yr bond auction and that was well supported again, drawing US$52 bln in bids for the US$22 bln available. But yields rose +30 bps to 4.61%, up from 4.28% at the prior equivalent event a month ago - and entirely consistent with secondary market moves in that period.
China's consumer prices edged up a mere +0.1% in March from a year ago and much less that the market forecasts of +0.4%, and after an annual +0.7% rise in February. The extended flirting with deflation is dangerous and highlights the economic challenges they face. Demand is actually quite weak - and this data all comes from the officially approved series.
Meanwhile, China's producer prices shrank by -2.8% in March from the same month a year ago. This was the expected drop and compares to February's drop of -2.7%. It was the 18th straight month of contraction in factory gate prices and the steepest decrease since last November, highlighting the persistence of deflationary forces in their economy.
In Japan, a lack of intervention in support of the yen after it weakened beyond 152 to the US dollar for the first time since 1990 has financial markets wondering when or even if the Japanese authorities will step in as has been widely expected. There are many market bets that this would have happened by now. But perhaps Tokyo senses that it is more about the rising USD rather than a weak yen. It certainly isn't that weak against most other currencies.
The ECB held its policy interest rates at record-high levels for a fifth consecutive time during its April meeting overnight, at 4.5% (and their deposit rate at 4%), both at 22 year highs. However they did signal that a rate cut could come there soon, perhaps in June.
We should perhaps also note that Argentina's monthly inflation rate seems to be easing, falling from +25% per month in December to half that in March. That has encouraged them to trim their policy interest rate overnight by -10% to 70% pa. Talk of 'dollarisation' seems to be fading there.
Last week global container shipping rates eased only marginally, staying +64% higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates fell -7.5% in the week however and are now back at long run averages.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.57% and up a minor +1 bp from yesterday as things settle in at the new higher level. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is a bit less at -40 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is also shallower at -58 bps. As is their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion which is now at -85 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.32% and up another +7 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at just on 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.88% and +13 bps higher since this time yesterday.
The S&P500 is up +0.8% on Wall Street in its Thursday session, recovering most of yesterday's drop. Overnight, European markets closed lower by about -0.5%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Thursday session down -0.4%. Hong Kong was down -0.3% in its daily trade. But Shanghai was up +0.2%. Singapore closed down -.3%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session down -0.4%. The NZX50 ended down -0.3%.
The price of gold will start today higher by +US$20 from this time yesterday at US$2355/oz but off its all-time high.
Oil prices have fallen -US$1 to just on US$84.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down a bit less to just on US$89/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just over 59.9 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are softer at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.4 and up a minor net +10 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today firmer at US$70,258 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.
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163 Comments
As the sun rises on another day in Aotearoa, it'd appear the time has arrived. In recent weeks, I've heard first hand of multiple companies drastically reducing staff rosters, projects paused indefinitely, and sadly, people in unfortunate financial positions taking their own lives.
The inertia of the last few years, appears to be dissipating. We, and many other nations the world over, are discovering the lifestyles we lead, are borrowed and not paid for. Without the cheap money, many (most) of us are broke-arses. Occupying a shared delusion, chasing things without really advancing ourselves.
There'll be a rescue, but at this point can we really put faith in the same entities that helped manufacture this mess, to come up with a lasting solution? It's hard to be remotely positive about that.
Good luck to everyone. Having done this before, I'm going to sit this one out I think.
In terms of borrowing - in my opinion a lot of organizations / people are not paying their share (taxes) including trusts,charities, corporate',s and so on, and no one is prepared to take them on. In our case (NZ) its a lot easier to take a few lunches off a bunch of kids.
It's a plague of entitlement mentality. Expanded welfare to our own cohorts while cutting provisions for the younger who follow, made others pay the tax so we didn't have to, and expected free wealth from property.
Embodied well by the present fellow at the top, well practiced at saying a rule for others, "If I can pay I should pay", while always having his own hand out. Just like his followers.
"What is the biggest expense in your life? Your government. It takes roughly 50% of everything you will ever earn. The next biggest expense is a house, something few can afford. With less government and cheaper housing, westerners would pretty quickly start reproducing again. What government is going to stand for less of itself and cheaper houses? Not one that I can see, except maybe in Argentina."
https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/demographics-destiny-and-decline?r=1o…
Yes, cut the constraining of supply, that would help on housing. Tax earned and unearned income equitably so working folk could pay less in taxes, that would also help.
New Zealand is stuck in a twilight zone where government provision for the old and wealthy is thought fine (even by faux libertarians) while provision for the younger and poorer is screeched of as "socialism!"
Re government vs non, the real question is under which model you pay more for the biggest expenses in life. Politicians' recent decade manipulation of housing aside, that means healthcare, roading, education, waters etc. The US and UK provide some compelling examples of the alternative not necessarily being cheaper in life.
Good grief. If my income is not yet earned then I have nothing to pay my taxes with. Are there still some people who cannot see this? Or is it just pretending not to see it as there is some sort of chance that havenots might get free stuff off haves? Taxes only exist to pay government expenses. Cut them, and taxes go down. Increase them, and taxes have to go up. Back in the day, only some people, and only some income needed to be taxed to pay for government. This changed, and only for one reason, to get more money. I, and others, think that roughly 50% total tax on our income is the maximum we will pay. Taxes have to go down. We just have to make it more expensive to collect tax than the amount the IRD get. Eventually, they will probably give up.
Back in the day, we had good-quality energy, good-quality remaining resources, and younger infrastructure. We also had less people, so more real wealth per head (access to the planet's resources being the real wealth - as Bishop, Jones et al are demonstrating...).
Those days are gone; inflation will be continually scarcity-driven from here on in - unless recession temporarily stays the trend.
Money - and tax - is a demand for future energy and resources. Increasingly in contention. Prices have to go up, so therefore do taxes, rates, maintenance-demands. Red Queen territory. Don't blame politicians, hues thereof, levels thereof, it was just humanity coming up against the Limits to Growth. Things will henceforth 'cost more' - until the System collapses (it was a Ponzi - what else was it going to do?).
Ah, that's a misunderstanding of the term Unearned Income. Here's some more info: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unearnedincome.asp
I'm all for taxing earned income less and beneficiaries of housing policy (an example of unearned income) more to reward productive enterprise.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/09/govt-axes-kids-youth-public-transpor…
Sorry, it's got to go to fund tax breaks for property speculators.
We should probably stop subsidising private road travel, I guess. No sense subsidising car and truck transport but getting all antsy at buses and trains.
Not sure we should be prioritising a free ride for property speculators (and other subsidising of property wealth) over enabling kids to get to school though. Nor why we given old people free public transport yet deny it to kids. Seems morally bereft.
And we are paying for the schooling whether or not the kid turns up... plus the long term cost of an uneducated citizen.
There was an article on One last night about a Northland school who have bought a couple of minivans to pick up kids whose parents (for whatever reason) are having trouble getting them to school regularly. A very successful scheme.
Folks, it's Friday and the weekend is upon us. Rejoice and celebrate another week of life. Some are finding it harder than others, but we live another day, another week to have the privilege of these conversations. There's always something to be grateful for, and practicing this daily helps us through these downturns.
You can, and encourage all of you cluttering the comments with in-fighting to make use of it! https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/interestconz-commenter-bl/kbf…
Retail Shop, one of our readers developed a patch allowing you to ignore (hide) posts from some contributors. I use it, and I must say my experience of reading the comments has become a lot more enjoyable.
Can the person who created that patch (sorry I can't remember your name) please repost it here?
Edit, I only just saw your post Anon_82, thanks.
Meanwhile back in jungle the distant drums signalling USS Trump threatens to upend and destroy the apple cart if you agree with Mr Hooton’s opinion today in the NZH. Without the USA Europe cannot defend itself. This Trump knows. This Putin knows. Watch this space.
Fair enough. I advanced Hooton’s piece because he theorises that Russia without the USA involved easily out nukes NATO, Western Europe allies, in other words. Either way it all becomes pointless, a Pyrrhic outcome, saturation opposing supersaturation, but the former, the smaller strike(s) would be more than enough anyway for the proverbial Armageddon.
I just finished On the Beach by Nevil Shute, which follows a few people in Melbourne fatalistically waiting for the cobalt fallout from a nuclear spat in the northern hemisphere to finally reach them and kill them. MAD in Europe would eventually kill us all. Hooray!
Reviews are very mixed - people love it or hate it. I think it's an interesting examination of the pathos that would develop when certain death is coming, people know the approximate date of their death, and all they have to do is find a way of facing it. I liked it myself, despite some annoying holes in the plot. Shute is able to get inside peoples' heads, and isn't afraid not to make what's in there make a sense. 4/5 stars.
In some ways it's relevant to PDK's common theme - when the oil's run out, the country is isolated, how will people adapt?
Yes it is; there's a B&W Gregory Peck film too.
Nevil Norway (middle name Shute) was an interesting fellow.
Started as an engineer with Barnes Wallis at Vickers - they did the successful airship, not the one which crashed in France. Theirs went to Canada and back. He went on to co-found Airspeed - then got bought out by a Government worries about pending war. Wrote WW2 propaganda (Pied Piper is the classic) then appraised the planet and migrated to Melbourne.
And wrote the likes of OTB and Town like Alice - and a few more esoteric political waffles. An original brain...
“Most Secret.” Did you ever imagine the use’s Worcester sauce had? Have read all of them. Unusual for an engineer, in my experience, he harboured a deep understanding of human nature, tragedy, pathos, courage and triumph and at times expressed these features wonderfully well. In fact reading a review by Graham Greene he remarked, if he wasn’t so prone to being lazy in the finish, he would be up here with me and Somerset.
“End of the Affair.” The opening sentences are mesmerising, best ever. In fact I had to read the first page two or three times, there is so much condensed into it. Similar for many more pages too. Like Tolkien it seemed to me he had some difficulty in getting his religious persuasions and convictions, to persuade him he was in the right direction
Lets wait and see what actually happens. Putin has backed himself into a corner. - overestimated the Russian military and it's capabilities, under estimated Ukraine and Europe. Putin has relied on European indifference but I would argue Europe has woken to the threat and beginning to act.
That Europe can not defend itself is the thinking that Putin wants the world to believe. Putin had two roles in Russia - the Great Provider and the Great Defender - both of which are looking shakier by the week.
As the Great Defender he has failed in the Moscow concert hall attack. The desperate attempt to blame Ukraine lets ISIS-K off the hook and will only embolden them - Russia is a soft target. It was great publicity for ISIS-K and those sympathetic to their cause ( more recruits and more funding) with no downsides so far. Russia has to punish ISIS-K publicly otherwise Russia will be seen as weak. But Russia can't do that because they are trying to blame Ukraine creates a bit of a narrative issue (does Russia even have the capability to inflict significant damage on ISIS-K is another issue).
Russia is grinding out territorial gains but at what cost in manpower and equipment (Russia can only go the cupboard so many times before the cupboard is bare). Additionally Russia has a huge border (and land area) to defend. If resources are moved to Ukraine, it leaves other areas weak / undefended.
As the Great Provider - while anything connected to the military is doing well - other parts of the economy not so much.
An appropriate oldie, re the Willis approach - if you can call it an approach...
You are right about human greed driving destruction - not so sure that the west in decline isnt symptomatic of the world as I dont see other spheres being in better shape. Authoritarian rule works - until it doesnt and if you look at other parts of the globe all have significant issues to deal with so Russia, China, Africa, Middle East, South America etc etc. are in many ways worse off than the "west"
Time for some real leadership - hard to see where it is going to come from and its highly likely that what we have got now will be around for sometime
Plan accordingly
I find it intriguing that people are looking back to the moon landing as an example of the sort of collective vision and public-private cooperation needed in the coming decade(s). It is probably quite right... but the possibility seems undermined by the flight of many into denialism of problems, anti-intellectualism and ranting at "experts and their models!", strongman worship, and finding a suitable other to hate.
An interesting thought exercise of a book came out during COVID times, "How to Spend a Trillion Dollars", that considered what might be achieved if governments allocated the sort of money they gave out during COVID to prop up wealth, instead to address pressing problems.
We might also achieve positive economic side-effects from investing this heavily in scientific efforts to address such problems, rather than spending so much on propping up wealth.
Instead we transferred wealth upwards to the wealthy and fuelled a recession, like hair of the dog to stave away the hangover. May the rise of intellectualism prevail and be held up as the goal to strive towards in life, as opposed to wealth and 'getting ahead' by stepping on the next generation or two below us.
Indeed. The rocket boosters of excessive printed money has run out of propellant, leaving some insufficient propulsion. Finally we start to return to a period were the normal rules of financial reality will apply. For those with debt unsupported by income (speculators) your Icarus moment is beginning. Also identified on the bubble models as fear, capitulation, and return to mean phases.
Freefall...
Yea because the market had priced in a 50% supply reduction the last 3 times it happened.....https://www.tradingview.com/x/UBvm18ll/
And this time there are billions of dollars worth of investments flowing in from institutional investors, who have a passive allocation through their funds having a 1-3% allocation.
And that is also only just getting started.
Bitcoin is money, and it is competing against all other forms of money. Look at the first image/flow diagram:
https://unchained.com/blog/bitcoin-obsoletes-all-other-money/
Or feel free to have a read :)
Homework Task: but after watching PlanB on Youtube AND knowing how the Stock Flow Model works explain:
Why BTC wont got to 500K after this Halving
Crash to 100 K in 2 years then go to 1 Million after the next halving.
AFTER you have sold at 500 K ,
rebought in 3 years at 100 K and then then enjoyed a 10X spike at the Next halving from 4 to 6 years...?
Thats your homework Task!
Gove was correct about those experts.
"The UK has become the world’s fourth largest exporter thanks to a boost in services, fresh trade figures have shown.
According to the latest statistics from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which leads on global trade for the UN, the UK has overtaken France, Netherlands and Japan to take fourth position, behind only China, the US, and Germany."
https://www.cityam.com/services-trade-sees-uk-become-worlds-fourth-larg…
Brexit was likely a good medium to long term strategy. Europe is now caught in a mess of its own making - unable to compete with China on manufacturing, needing to pay for Ukraine war and unable to pivot fast enough due to the complexity of decision making amongst multiple countries with different agendas
UK will still have a roller coaster few years but likely end up sitting pretty.
No, it won't - can't - end up 'sitting pretty'.
It is a dissipative collection of activities - as every nation is. The North Sea energy bonanza was a one-off, now mostly depleted. That was their peak (more accurately, their major blip on the way down from peak 'Commonwealth '- an oxymoron).
They cannot feed 60+ million, ex fossil energy; they're toast.
Watercare flags 25.8 per cent rise in bills for Aucklanders as Mayor Wayne Brown and Minister Simeon Brown try to soften the blow
At least that racist 3 waters was quashed..happy days we are on the right track now
The previous Labour Government’s reforms would have separated Watercare’s balance sheet from Auckland Council, allowing it to borrow more and keep prices closer to its existing price path of 9.5 per cent next year.
Borrowing to build infrastructure that would benefit future generations is infinitely better than borrowing to fund tax cuts for landlords.
Local/central govt distinction doesn't really matter, they both provide public services. It's about how we deploy our limited national resources, what do we focus our efforts into fixing/making resilient/improving. NACTNZF have chosen landlords, tobacco and ICE road transport.
Whose balance sheet is used is quite critical.
Using central government's massive balance sheet means ongoing interest costs are dramatically less. That contributes to both 'living within our means' and our 'ability to actually deliver the infrastructure'. (Seems that sensible logic got lost while so many were debating 'cultural aspects' of Three Waters.)
By the way, for those that don't know, Watercare has been a target for privatization for a long, long time. It's a juicy target for private equity as it's effectively a monopoly. In the USA, the The Great Vampire Squid led the charge to privatize everything publicly owned and publicly owned water companies were prime targets - monopolies are extremely desirable targets. US cities got fed the 'private enterprise does it better' b.s. but when they became privately owned, prices went up, services went down, and they were loaded up with debt so the bwankers and private equity made out like bandits. I'd not be surprised at all if we found out that 'private equity' didn't have a significant hand in our 'culture war' over Three Waters. There is a well used 'playbook' for this process and it gets used ad nauseum with the majority of people completely unaware they're being led to the fleecing.
CONF, my brother. Before my day drinking really gets going I wanted to say I completely agree. Initially I ignored the whole idea of Three Waters, mainly because of my preferred policy of abolishing central government. On completing my research I ascertained that it was an excellent proposal, which I think could have been actioned along with my abolishment aspirations. Another missed opportunity to improve this great country. Kia Kaha.
Gotta love provincial, tribal thinking. Indeed why should anyone pay for anything that one doesn't use all the time - let Timaru pay for its armoured personnel carriers, let Levin pay for its public hospitals, let Westport pay for its roads and seawalls. In no time we're reduced to local feifdoms governed by some self-proclaimed lord, worried about those barbarians from the neighbouring village stealing our stuff.
Honestly, is it any wonder that countries like China have advanced so much in the last 30 years as a confident, unified state built on Chinese cultural pride while places like the UK fragment into silly little entities such as Scotland, England & Wales - no larger than they were in the 1500s?
Yeah, and? I would 100% prefer an somewhat accountable public monopoly than a privatised monopoly that charges you as much as it likes, for the benefit of foreign shareholders, while trashing the infrastructure investment paid for by rate payers over the last 100 years.
Perhaps we should install competing water pipes?
I think Chris's point is that the repeal of Labour's Three Waters now makes it much much more likely Watercare will be privatised, which I for one don't want. It's the UK Tory playbook 101, and this lot are following it play by play, including the cultural outage misdirection before they sell.
Those outraged by the possibility of Maori co-governance could be about to find out they threw the baby out with the bathwater.
I believe its called "Taking the Punch Bowl away!"
and yes the squealing will be loud, but risk assets will reprice and all will be good again.
There is nothing wrong with borrowing, so long as the price paid is value! for too long the price paid was irrelevant as it would simply go up more the next day as people borrowed more to buy that asset.... its always painful reconnecting to cashflows, especially with rates so high. Chris Joce knows this oh so well and has been warning for months.... now there is a long line of chickens walking in the driveway
Comment of the day.
I've always seen debt as the trigger; a point when the unthinking masses realise it is unrepayable, en masse. That penny could drop in 24 hours; one waking round of the screen-swipers of the planet. Then goodbye financial system.
Life would change in a great hurry.
I have been stacking lead not gold. If the whole system as we currently know it collapses it will get ugly beyond what the average person can even comprehend, simply because they think its impossible Join a club and learn to shoot before that right gets taken away as well. Not having a plan is planning to fail, the chances of it all going to shit is extremely low but you have the right to self defence.
PDK you assume that repayment was part of the plan :-)
The two WWII superpowers (Russia and USA) fully understood this. Hence why they blow the most of it on the military. They can defend their resources and at the same time take everyone elses.
China thought they could come to the party and do it with pure manpower. But as they are finding out, it's a lot easier to take care of a nuke or 2,000 than a billion individuals.
A rat will drink cocaine water until it starves to death, valuing it over it's own nutrition and even on the verge of death will still keep consuming. Humans were originally nomadic, using resources them moving on, rinse and repeat. We are now at a point where there's nowhere on the planet we can't reach, and when one group go to move on after depletion, there are others already using the nearby resources who aren't willing to share.
Exactly, it is a base level need for resources that created tribal affiliations and saw humans spread out of Africa.
A group is stronger than an individual, weaker groups/individuals get pushed out and go searching elsewhere.
If there was no more space to claim then you fought for it and either lived or died.
As you often note, globably the numbers don't stack up. So the outcome is inevitable, the question is around timing.
China's consumer prices edged up a mere +0.1% in March from a year ago and much less that the market forecasts of +0.4%, and after an annual +0.7% rise in February. The extended flirting with deflation is dangerous and highlights the economic challenges they face.
There are the sectors of the capitalist class that are threatened by China’s technological advances, such as Google and Meta, and they are leading the anti-China charge. On the other hand, U.S. ruling circles, which continue to pursue corporate neoliberal policies designed for their benefit, need to offer the vast majority of working Americans who are suffering under these policies an explanation for their misery, and nothing is more useful than blaming China.
Well, the beginning really is what America means by a non-market economy. It means an economy that is better at competing internationally than the United States. It’s not a market economy if the United States can’t gain control of it and do something better.
And that’s the problem that the United States had with Huawei ever since the U.S. began to move its industry under the Clinton administration to China. The United States can’t compete in industrial products, and it only has a few raw materials—oil, gas, and agricultural exports—to support the balance of payments. That leaves only one way that the United States can balance its payments enough so that it can afford all of the 800-plus military bases that it has all over the world and can afford to fight in Ukraine, in Palestine, and in the China Sea.
So the solution is it needs economic rent. It needs to monopolize some high growth area of the economy that other countries are not allowed to compete in. Well, one of the great growth areas is, of course, the move towards 5G communications technology. And Huawei is way ahead of the United States there. That’s why it was being adopted everywhere. Link
"The extended flirting with deflation is dangerous..."
I don't subscribe to that view. Rapid deflation is a problem, mainly as an 'economic shock'. But ongoing gradual deflation? Never read anything from a reputable economist to confirm this. Gradual deflation isn't much different to gradual inflation, and we accept gradual inflation as normal.
Interesting link, btw. Thanks.
We have an official name for Bishop et al; Lenocrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTfSZ0D39AI
I'll stick with: pimps.
The people worldwide are flocking to Gold and now its poor cousin Silver (yet still significantly undervalued, by G/S ratio) as they see the darkened sky, become ever blacker.
We all know the Western World DDDebt junkies, which NZ excels at- No 1, are huddled on various financial cliff edges, in pelting cold hailstorms, one after another.......with no hope or relief in sight. Or a new minted fool, to pass the overpriced, the soggy land bag to.....
Yes - but likely a few tens/hundreds of millions of people with serious to middling (Chyna/India) investment money.
Record high after record high will go on for some time IMHO.
Silver is where the action is at now- it has a long climb up the G/S ratio pile, to much higher, new heights.
What's the value proposition for silver?
Silver has a silly reputation as the poor man's gold.
Another more obscure reason why silver has value is that its price has also been suppressed, much like gold.
People will say that is just conspiratorial nonsense and it's up to the individual to make up their own mind.
Now, you could also ask the question to why one should own silver if Jamie Dimon has free rein to suppress the price.
It's another important question.
But why should it have any price at all, let alone being suppressed? Gone are the days where everyone aspires to silverplates and cutlery, dishes etc, and Lobelia Sackville-Baggins-type people nicked them. Apart from its historical value as a rarer metal, what's the value proposition?
But why should it have any price at all, let alone being suppressed? Gone are the days where everyone aspires to silverplates and cutlery, dishes etc, and Lobelia Sackville-Baggins-type people nicked them. Apart from its historical value as a rarer metal, what's the value proposition?
For a start, silver does have industrial use. Let's not forget that.
The question as to why it may have store of value properties is something each individual has to determine individually. The same question can be applied to gold, ratty, baseball cards, art, vintage cars.
Reseach finds there is no relationdhip between diversity in leadership teams and performance
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/no-evidence-diverse-man…
What is of more interest is that McKinsey would not disclose any of the data in their study's that said it was a "strategic imperitive". That's suspicious.
In employment prospects it would have to be, with all other factors removed and impartially, the person with the best ability to perform well in the role to achieve the outcomes set for it, and the organisation.
I struggle to think of any other definition as the majority of others seem to have some other nonsensical factors thrown in that don't have anything remotely to do with one's competency.
Definitely not climate change related, everything is fine
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/350242835/concern-oakura-lake-forms…
The article prompted me to call an 'old friend with a digger'. Yup. Nothing new here. They've been digging channels to drain these naturally occurring lakes for years. And their dad did it with shovels. (I could add that their business is idling and operating at about 40% capacity with most workers down to very short hours and looking for part time work.)
The gold price has surged to a new all-time high of US$2375/oz, or NZ$3960/oz.
Gold is not an inflation hedge. It is a safe haven and there is a huge difference.
This is the most insane article on US-China relations of the year so far, and by a VERY long mile: https://foreignaffairs.com/united-states/no-substitute-victory-pottinger-gallagher Link
Pretty astonishing — and terrifying — speech by Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO supreme allied commander and head of U.S. European Command. https://stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-04-09/cavoli-nato-russia-nuclear-13516988.html Link
My guess is this govt will at some point attempt to reignite the FIRE economy ...not sure how, but the small things it has currently put in place around Landlords and Renters would indicate to me that they intend to attempt to resuscitate the dead trojan property horse that lays stinking up the economy... this govt has a big problem in front of it ...How to make the settings work when the cost of living has climbed so much. Compounding that problem will be FED, DTI, LVR settings.... imo ...there wont be any quick recovery
I saw this Youtube/TEDx on content vs connection. His argument is that traditional news is hub to spoke. Successful digital platforms enable spoke to spoke communication. I think Interest.co does a great job of connecting readers with each other but also with spoke to hub communication so we get the content we're interested in as well as what editors think we should get.
Producer price rises are not a major factor in their consumer price inflation.
Pay more attention to PPIs than CPIs for what direction CPIs are ultimately going to take. It doesn't really matter which one; China's, Europe's, America's. More information in them about consumer price pressures than every central bank statement, study, speech, minute, etc. Link
"Literally Gas Lighting": The Hilarious Reason For Today's PPI Miss: Seasonally Adjusted Gas Prices
More on that ECB decision Source: https://www.ft.com/content/52e61581-6f66-4809-957a-2279ab173def
But its president Christine Lagarde told reporters that a small minority of policymakers had argued for an immediate cut.
In a shift from previous language, the ECB said it “would be appropriate” to cut rates if underlying price pressures, its updated forecasts and the impact of previous rate rises increased its confidence that inflation was closing in on its 2 per cent target “in a sustained manner”.
And further down ...
Ann-Katrin Petersen, a strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, emphasised that, compared with the Fed, “the ECB faces weaker growth and has hiked policy further into restrictive policy”. She added: “So the ECB will probably cut first, but may then move more slowly if the Fed delays cuts.”
The same rhetoric as we see here.
But wait a mo ...
See: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/07/reserve-bank-smashes-housing-m… ... And they were among the last to lift rates whereas NZ was the first.
Did the RBNZ do it right?
Did the RBNZ use the right tools?
Why hasn't NZ's inflation fallen faster if the OCR is such a great tool?
Just as an aside - Europe is large enough that if they cut rates, they'd have a temporary exporting advantage over the USA, and we could see the Fed move quickly in response just to keep parity (and to stop their manufacturers squealing about 'cheap imports'). I.e. Cuts all round in June?
Too late for NZ Inc. though. November 2023 was when the RBNZ should have started easing. i.e. if you're going to be first to raise rates, then you better be damn well prepared to be the first to lower them when the economy tanks. Worst central bank ever? Probably.
Well, I'll stick to being the usual contrarian self, and dare to make possibly the only positive post here, and attract the wrath of the majority of posters.
The weather is improving, I've got my health, family, good friends I'll catch up with tonight, business is great and life is awesome! Have the weekend you believe you deserve, folks.
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