Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news business owners are having difficulty matching their sentiment with the conditions around them.
And financial markets are in a bit of a pre-dawn shadow as they await the US CPI data tomorrow. Headline CPI is expected to tick up, core inflation tick lower. Both levels will be well above the US Fed's target.
American retail sales, as measured by the weekly Redbook index for bricks & mortar stores, rose +5.4% last week from the same week a year ago, far better than inflation. Despite that, SMEs reported slipping sentiment and interestingly, labour shortages were still a key concern. So despite record job creation and high migration, small business still can't get enough people for the roles they need to fill. Twenty-five percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 26% reported none.
Investors on the other hand stayed much more optimistic and above average levels over the past 2+ years.
There was a US$59 bln UST 3yr bond auction earlier today and that brought slightly higher yields. Today's median yield was 4.49% and that was up from 4.21% a month ago at the last equivalent event. Investors support for this fund-raising remains very strong with offers 2½ times availability. Today almost US$87 bln in bids were unsatisfied.
Japan is said to be pondering where-to for their inflation. Wage gains have been strong this year. Since their central bank raised rates for the first time in 17 years last month and ended its massive monetary easing program, market players have been focusing on hints for the timing of the next rate hikes. They may get 2.4% inflation this year, 2% next year. These are much higher levels than they have had for the long period since the GFC.
One country making progress on inflation reduction (but not battling deflation) is Taiwan. Their CPI inflation slowed to 2.1% in March from 3.1% in the previous month and coming less than market forecasts of 2.5%.
It is election day in South Korea and the main issues are domestic ones. It is hard to predict the outcome because the electorate is split 30/40/30 conservative/moderate/liberal and few know how the moderate voters will swing this time. Anything's possible.
In Australia, business confident was little-changed in March according to the widely-respected NAB survey. Both business conditions and confidence were little changed in the month, continuing the trend of above-average activity indicators alongside below-average confidence that has defined this survey for much of the past year.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index in Australia fell -2.4% to 82.4 points in April, sliding for the second consecutive month as persistent inflation and high interest rates continued to weigh on Australian households. The index has also held below 100 for over two years, the longest since the early-1990s recession.
The overnight GDT Pulse dairy auction results for both WMP and SMP basically confirmed the uptick in prices that we first saw in the full GDT event a week ago.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37% and down -5 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is little-changed at -37 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is slightly more at -68 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now at -102 bps and + bps deeper. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.15% and down -8 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at just under 2.30%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.83% and +3 bps since this time yesterday ahead of the OCR review.
The S&P500 is down -0.4% on Wall Street in its Tuesday session, awaiting the US CPI data on Thursday. Overnight, European markets closed weaker, bookended by London's -0.1% rise and Frankfurt's -1.3% fall. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Tuesday session up +1.1%. Hong Kong was up +0.6% in its Tuesday trade. But Shanghai was virtually unchanged, not recovering the prior day's drop. Singapore was up +0.7%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session up +0.5%. The NZX50 ended down -0.5%.
The price of gold will start today a little higher by +US$13 from this time yesterday at US$2348/oz and yet another all-time high.
Oil prices have slipped another -US$1 to just on US$84.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now down to just on US$89/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just over 60.5 USc and up another +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also a bit firmer at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer too at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.5 and up +20 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today softer at US$68,790 and down -4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate however at just on +/- 2.8%.
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76 Comments
“Twenty five percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and twenty five percent reported none.” That is the rub in NZ too and it’s damn worrying. At the time of the internet and other wonderful educational tools, all that they offer, it seems a great deal of the population is simply dumbing down. Not a great platform for industrious go forward is it.
I have a kid in high school and I concur. Mum was a teacher and she and her retired friends generally feel the kids have slipped two academic years over the last 30. So what they taught to a year 11 in 1995 would be tough for your average year 13 now. They feel that kids resort to devices too soon, so instead of being a tool to augment knowledge it becomes the knowledge.
Here's an article on the Pisa scores. For some reason all the scores started dropping from around 2008/2009.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/pisa-report-nz-school-students-p…
A few interesting things in that article.
Axes of the graphs are very truncated so a 2 to 3% drop looks significant.
Also, NZ drop mirrors be OECD average.
Assuming test difficulty has stayed the same, I wonder if there have been new entrants to the OECD league, especially some Asian countries that drill hard and teach to the exam. Not a bad thing, but I really don't know what we should be teaching kids now. Basics is good. But I don't think we should be trying to compete against the computers.
Art, creativity, performing arts, genuine skills that involve hands (but even then the robots might catch up).
Education as a system is fairly slow and has often taught skills for the last century. Innovators often just exit the system to make progress.
Full time online learning via alternative providers has increased in NZ. I think kids still need more social interaction than that, but online curriculum plus traditional bricks and mortar schools could be a useful hybrid.
Some interesting points here thank you. Robots can already pick up an egg and then put it in a basket so dexterity is a given now.
Regarding innovators exiting the education system, yes this has been consistent, but social media has created a world view that everyone can do that. Which they cannot (but I will say it is interesting how significant the coaching etc businesses are now). My main concern with this world view is not that everyone is following their dreams (or those they have been told they should have) but that the level of general education is slipping.
I am lucky enough to work in a well diversified work place but it is interesting to hear conversations between people >30 where there is almost no geographical and even less historical knowledge. Even though I would know, at best, an average amount I am constantly answering their basic questions. This is frustrating for them I think, as they appreciate they have not been taught these things they are obviously interested in.
I'd add to my possible list of things to focus education on:
- moving around in and understanding nature (outdoor education)
- being open to and learning how to talk to people different from yourself
- some international exposure would be great, but obviously travel costs can limit that
I think what should be taught and emphasized is for all that you know , there is a lot that you don't know. - understand that you don't understand (and it is impossible to know it all), encourage inquisitiveness. Some will run with it , some will put it is the too hard basket.
Years ago at university I found that people could rote learn but not truly be inquisitive and try and understand.
As a teacher this sounds fairly accurate to me. Saying that, many of my colleagues (old and young) aren't all that switched on either. I have some brilliant and curious students who would do well in any system I think. What is concerning is that the number of low achieving students only seems to grow each year, and inevitably the MoE and NZQA lower the bar to meet them. I don't have much faith in public education and will probably get out in the next year or two. It's depressing and demotivating a lot of the time.
A good education system is a foundation, though as individuals we need to keep learning and growing under our own volition.
What is concerning is that the number of low achieving students only seems to grow each year, and inevitably the MoE and NZQA lower the bar to meet them.
Education needs a line in the sand or achievement, not a system where everyone gets a participation award. If kids don't learn from failure because the system barely allows them to do so, then the real world becomes a very harsh place to learn this outside the education system. Best we teach them young to strive to achieve and the benefits of this. I can appreciate why you feel demotivated when you want to help kids achieve and the system you work within is more focused on achievement quantity over quality.
Probably began with how modern parenting in which subjecting your child to negative emotions such as dejection, failure, frustration, etc. are viewed as strict no-no's. Parents are now afraid to discipline their children and won't let society or life do it either.
We have therefore turned schools and colleges into flashy daycares where protecting feelings of these overaged children with utmost care and tenderness is priority #1.
I love these generalisations from people who have probably not stepped foot in a school or college for 30 years, fuming away, angry at their imaginary classrooms full of snowflake kids, snowflake parents, snowflake teachers.
I bet none of them would be able to handle a term either teaching or learning in a secondary school.
Here's and article on one of the best school systems in the world and what makes it successful. Have a read and then decide whether your reckons and hot takes hold any water.
https://amp.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/mar/27/free-lunches-brain…
Failure is an excellent teacher and motivator all on it's own. We all fail at various times, it's what we do with failure that determines where we go. There are back ups for kids these days - bridging courses at uni if you mucked up your Yr 13 physics exam for example. I think another one of the problems is that some schools want their pass rate to look good and put pressure on the kids, and even stop them doing certain subjects if they don't get the right results one year. This is so wrong and doesn't fit with how people learn and adolescent brain development. I'm all for failure at times, it does suck at the time though.
The whole education system went down the toilet the moment they dropped School Certificate and University Entrance exams. Still why even worry about what they are teaching now when half the kids do not even turn up for school anyway. I think its already showing up in the following generations, along with the "attitude" to match.
Can't speak for all but I found NCEA worked perfectly fine. It allowed a choice in multiple different subjects, more so as the years progressed through 5th-7th form. Some classes were unit standard which made you focus more in the class and took the pressure off other subjects allowing more time to study for them for exams. Then again we still used books and had to write back then, not use tablets and devices or a lot of internet learning. Good teachers make a huge difference, and I hope we see increases in male teachers across the schooling spectrum as they are sorely lacking, and invaluable positive role models for boys, especially those with lacking role models at home.
Yes who teaches the teachers. Could not count on one hand the number of teachers I came to admire. Admittedly I was not a fast learner and some of them made me painfully aware of that fact. To compensate I became methodical and looking back now I tend to think that approach was more beneficial than anything else in my subsequent working life. You can lead a horse to water etc still rings true though doesn’t it.
I remember those days but don't believe that results were scaled to automatically fail half of students and pass the other half. Scaling was instead supposed to even out variations in exam difficulty from year to year and also make the results between subjects more comparable.
Aren't the typical kids who used to leave in Year 11 and get a job,apprenticeship etc, forced to stay in school these days?
IMO, non-academic kids need more help. Too many are staying in school because it's expected of them, and as there is little else available except working retail and labouring, they stick around playing sport and socializing, delaying the in-evitable and dragging everyone down. On the other hand, many kids are being forced to leave due to the cost of living (aka RENT Demands and overcrowding) where staying at school becomes untenable.
Yes you just bet me to it, this is a real cultural change where Retail is not seen as enough of a job and probably does not pay enough above welfare to warrant the huge inconvenience of working.
Social welfare provides a safety net but 9.4% of the working age population received a main benefit (these numbers do not include those receiving Working For Families tax credits) and seem comfortable relaxing in the net instead of contributing.
I read an article about "doom spending" - which seems to mesh with the headline.
What would be interesting to see is spending and sentiment by age band. It would be fascinating to see credit card data by decade. I suspect the 30-50 bracket has pulled right back, the older bracket has partly pulled back, and the younger bracket is charging.
i note Stuff are running an article on MP's pay and remuneration, which laments back bench MP's pay being at its lowest since 1978. The article cites the Chief Forecaster from Infometrics who indicates that it is typical for wages to keep pace with inflation. What? Not if you're just a worker bee in an organisation. He is clearly out of touch, why does he think teachers and nurses went on strike, why does he think Police are moving to Australia - and the list goes on? The reality is, especially if you work for a Government department that typically wages do NOT keep pace with inflation.
I have argued for years that MP's pay and remuneration is out of touch with societal realities and likely has been since before 1978. So the job is hard? So is being a cop or an ED nurse or a Corrections Officer and those three jobs I just mentioned have a lot more responsibility than a back bench MP, but are not paid anywhere near that level!
Murray good to see you are one of the 30% of the population that still considers MSM relevant... ;)
But in regards to wage rises...
For the June 23 year median weekly earnings from wages and salaries grew by 7.1 percent ($84) to reach $1,273. This was the second-largest annual rise since the series began in 1998, surpassed only by the previous year’s annual increase.
In the same period New Zealand’s consumers price index increased 6.0 percent.
So by the sounds of it it's not the Chief Forecaster that is out of touch...:)
I will say however that the stark miss-parity between what we pay our critical services and that of Australia needs addressing urgently, and yes I would say before any MP's get their pay rise.
It is important to note those stats are based on weekly earnings - it does not factor in hours worked.
I have done a lot of work in the rem space recently, and the average increase was <3% annually across NZ.
So what you are seeing, is not that pay rates increased, it is that people worked more hours in the week to make ends meet. Most of these are secondary/tertiary jobs and/or "gigs".
You see this quite often, the weekly earnings nearly always keeps pace with inflation as people must earn that to survive. Meanwhile the actual salary increases sit significantly below inflation over time (Except for Living wage - which explicitly factors in costs)
The Chief forcaster isn't out of touch, he is just interpreting the stats in a specific way that softens up the masses ready for MP increases.
cheers Noncents, the pay increase received by a number of public servants working at or near the frontlines of their organisation, who I know personally, was in the vicinity of 3%, when inflation has been recorded at well over 10%. BS offers that devalue frontline staff are the norm and have been for years. Management attitude sucks. when challenged on the pay rises they say 'go find a job somewhere else' and when staff do they complain about a lack of loyalty and poor retention rates as well as an inability to recruit. But it's not their fault.
The career options for frontline staff (police, nurses, teachers, etc.) in NZ are generally limited. In comparison, managerial and admin workers in the public sector have the luxury of moving between roles.
So even if bureaucrats may not have had big pay increases within the same job each year, a job switch every 2-3 years can fetch a decent pay bump. Frontline workers however are often locked in the same jobs for longer within the same pay band.
"For the June 23 year median weekly earnings from wages and salaries grew by 7.1 percent ($84) to reach $1,273. This was the second-largest annual rise since the series began in 1998, surpassed only by the previous year’s annual increase."
Just to say that here in the private sector some of us are not treated to 7+% pay rises. I have had 2.1 and 2,75%, respectively. I am just a poor scientist of course, not a marketing exec or accountant. Maybe they can negotiate half decent salaries these days. The purchasing power of fiat currency is going to the dogs, and I am poorer by the year; my wife is a primary school teacher and is getting double what I am. At this rate there will be no one around to design new products in the primary industries. I am looking to change careers for some economic prosperity. Maybe regarding food production and increasing population AI will simply save us all, on command.
BTW, I don't read the MSM or think that they're relevant either, if I needed to authenticate myself.
The price of gold will start today a little higher by +US$13 from this time yesterday at US$2348/oz and yet another all-time high.
Gold is not an inflation hedge. It is a safe haven and there is a huge difference. Bullion's bull runs over the last twenty years have specifically coincided with DEFLATIONARY events. Given that history, why is gold surging? Why now? https://youtu.be/UgxA8J5wVOY People simply repeat something because they heard "everyone" else say it: low interest rates are stimulus; the Fed prints money; gold rises during inflation. Link
While it is a known safe haven it is much more seen as part of an investment portfolio that has sufficient diversification. The Gold run might just be a factor of established funds having established diversification mandates needing to keep the portfolio balanced in line with those mandates.
Thats a very bold statement ... Has it ended?....I think not.... Times of Israel(Today)
Israel threatens to bomb nuke sites as Iran backs down from direct attack – report
Tehran said reluctant to carry out attack in response to assassination of top general in Damascus, instead likely to retaliate through proxy groups Citing an anonymous “Western security official, 'the London-based Elaph News reported that Israel has been conducting air force drills in recent days that include preparing to target Iranian nuclear facilities and other key infrastructure'.
But also keep in mind that Israel already has nukes, and is the only country in the middle east with nukes. And has no intention of getting rid of them.
This fact is always left out when people comment or report on Iran's nuclear programme. Compare with India and Pakistan, where comment on one always brought in the impact on the other one.
Nope, Iran has been a nuclear threshold country for a few years now and it is simply not a big deal to them. Their leadership has stated time and again that they consider nuclear weapons antithetical to their faith. However they already have advanced missile technology and a generous stockpile of highly enriched uranium. So they have the skills and materials to build a nuclear warhead in say, six months. But why should they when they have literally thousands of conventional precision missiles which are far more usable.
It's rare I recommend a Bloomberg article but this opinion piece by @davidfickling is a must-read. https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-08/yellen-junks-200-years-of-economics-to-block-china-clean-tech He explains that with the "overcapacity" rhetoric towards China, Janet Yellen - and by extension America - is "rejecting what’s been one of the most fundamental principles of economics for more than 200 years: comparative advantage." He notes that this shift is all the more remarkable that it makes very little sense for plenty of reasons. Link
Couple of proverbs
Hitching your horse to a Russian wagon has many times shown to be a bad decision
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of convenience and comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy," Martin Luther King, Jr.
The immense irony in this headline... Biden being the leader of a country 8,000 miles away with zero territorial claims in the South China Sea... The official definition of "meddling" is "to interest oneself in what is not one's concern": as such it's complete Orwellian doublespeak for America to tell China it's meddling in the South *CHINA* Sea! Words still have meaning, even in our post-truth world... Link
Oil prices have slipped another -US$1 to just on US$84.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now down to just on US$89/bbl.
Iran is quietly reminding the US that it can close the Straits of Hormuz. As we have said previously, Iran has immense leverage in West Asia, this being one example of that. Link
Everyday companies are shutting up shop… Sunfed, Big Marketing Agency, Kate Sylvester. And that’s just what I have read this week.
The GFC seemed higher up and largely property and cash liquidity. This is starting to feel very close to home and tangible in terms of uneconomic activities of which there are many.
Lower interest rates, which I doubt will happen, won’t save businesses with cost structures that don’t work.
I'm fairly well-connected in the marketing agency space, and everyone I've spoken to there recently is seeing a noticeable slowdown (and staff are being let go or put on reduced hours).
One of the telltale signs is I'm seeing marketing agencies advertising much more aggressively.
Marketing, after all, being the easiest cost to cut in the first instance (unless you are Callaghan Innovation dropping $170k on a very average new website, and then more money on a new logo, while cutting your science staff)
Marketing, after all, being the easiest cost to cut in the first instance (unless you are Callaghan Innovation dropping $170k on a very average new website, and then more money on a new logo, while cutting your science staff)
I thought Callaghan had been exposed for all this. I think RBNZ spent millions. On a website.
Stagflation. Low growth, higher unemployment and high inflation. But lets keep keep increasing min wage and putting commercial rents up, that will make everything all ok ...tui. If you are holding your breath waiting for 2% debt and fluffy unicorns again, that is not going to happen. Make change now.
Sunfed, Big Marketing Agency, Kate Sylvester.
I was explaining to someone some of the problems with the commercial proposition with Sunfed based on some work I had done outside NZ. The person I was communicating with got quite salty in a passive aggressive way. This attitude seems to be prevalent in NZ.
The businesses you mention are all 'nice to haves'.
'Today's median yield was 4.49% and that was up from 4.21% a month ago at the last equivalent event' and 'global commodity prices push higher'.
Just some quotes from this and Jason Wong's article from today. The message from Orr later today will be most like higher for longer.
Interesting retrospective given by Thomas Piketty on his work over the past decade:
Thanks, interesting, particularly these snippets:
"If the 20th century invented the income tax system, the 21st century will need to enact a progressive wealth tax system."
and
"The battles today are still essentially between the three big families of ideas which have structured the political battles since the 18th century: liberalism, nationalism, and socialism. Today, we’re in an era where neoliberalism hasn’t collapsed but has reached its limits. What is going to come next? It is a confrontation between some form of neo-nationalism and some form of new democratic socialism, which is still very weak. This is to the advantage of neo-nationalism, which we’ve seen enjoy electoral success around the world, from the US to India. The only priority now is to construct a socialist alternative."
I think he has the right approach here:
And rather than pointing out the neoliberals for attack, I prefer to concentrate my energies on trying to construct alternatives.
Change only really happens in response to crisis. It's important that when that does happen, the alternatives are there.
The struggle is real.
Homeowners can't afford their insurance.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/513358/very-significant-rise-in-hom…
And tradies can't pay their tax
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/513844/ird-targets-construction-bus…
Tradies can't pay their tax...or is that WON'T pay their tax....from the article quoted;
Recent IRD surveying has indicated there is more acceptance around cash jobs - IRD can use other parties such as bank accounts or electronic payment service providers to identify that work has been done and payments have been made, he said.
"So that can tell us a little more about the truth of someone's position."
In some cases people just fail to file tax a return, he said.
"So we can see that transactions have been occurring and they need to file but they don't."
IRD receives about 7000 tips a year about people taking cash jobs.
A good percentage of the anonymous tips IRD received were linked to the construction industry, he said.
Cash jobs means paying in cash. If you do a bank payment then its not a cash job, as obviously its readily traceable, especially through a business bank accounts. With the high cost of living, offering cash means you dont pay GST and they don't pay income tax. I call that a Win Win.
With insurance, taking out an insurance policy is a way to off set risk. For the vast majority of us if something bad happens we can't afford to just replace our assets if they get destroyed or repair them. In addition third party covers the possibility where we my make a mistake that impacts others and covers that cost. But government regulation has entrenched insurance as a need rather than an option. A lack of insurance could be described as an individual choosing to "self insure", where they expect to be able to cover any costs that might arise.
But the insurance industry itself has become a rip off. The entire concept of insurance and how premiums are calculated has become a fraud. Insurance companies assess a risk of any particular event occurring and establish a portion of the premium for this. The problem is if the risk isn't realised and there is excess funds left from the premium incomes in any financial period, those funds are raked off as profit, and not put away to cover the longer term risk. This is instead put off onto re-insurance. Essentially the insurance companies are ripping off their clients.
I was listening to the Of Interest Podcast with Kiwibank CEO and I think they mentioned that the banks do not have an easy way of checking that someone who has a mortgage with them also has current insurance against that property (even though it is a requirement of the loan).
Can anyone guess which ex-PM is selling this one?
Nice place. Quite a price tag. Enquiries over $2,695,000.
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