Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news American data supports the Fed's cautious approach to its monetary policy management - pushing away imminent rate cuts. Benchmark rates have risen sharply.
US new jobless claims came in less than expected when a rise was anticipated. There were less than 200,000 new actual claims last week, and that takes the number of people on these benefits to under 2.1 mln. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there is still no sign here of a wavering American labour market.
But American retail sales were up +0.6% in February from January, following an upwardly revised -1.1% fall in January and below market forecasts of a +0.8% gain. The relatively modest increase, combined with a larger decline in January, suggests a potential slowdown in consumer spending. But the February level is in fact +5.5% higher than year ago levels, pointing out the longer-term above-inflation expansion of consumer activity.
Also rising are producer prices. They rose by +0.6% in February from January, marking the largest increase since last August and surpassing market expectations of a +0.3% rise. Goods prices rose by +1.2%, the most in six months, primarily driven by a surge in energy and food prices. These are not signals the Fed will like.
Although they are definitely not at concerning levels and remain at long term average levels, American inventories are rising which will bring increased management attention at firms.
We should point out that the official release on China new yuan loans seems to be delayed. Markets had expected a modest rise, but maybe it isn't like that.
Meanwhile data is coming to light that the 2023 level of commercial property sales in China were unusually light, and marked by distressed sales. More than 20% of all sales were because of seller stress. And it may be more. Some non-distressed deals were made by stressed developers in need of liquidity. Nearly half of the distressed deals in 2023 were in the industrial sector. It seems the office sector's pain is yet to come.
Distressed deals also have make up a high proportion of commercial real estate sales this year. In the first two months of 2024 more than 30% were distressed, and these were dominated by smaller deals.
In India, Bloomberg is pointing out a rather sharp fall in their listed small-cap equities. So far in March, they have fallen -7.5% even if yesterday there was a small recovery. More than NZ$100 bln has been 'lost' in this retreat. It does point out that this market has gotten rather over-valued.
Container freight rates fell another -4% last week although they remain 77% higher than year ago levels. Trans-Atlantic rates rose, but all others fell. Bulk cargo rates basically held over the past week, with the recent sharp rises ending.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.30% and up +11 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is less at -40 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is much less at -78 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is down sharply at -109 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.15% and up +9 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.35%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.72%.
Wall Street has started its Thursday session with the S&P500 down -0.2%. Overnight European markets closed between Paris's +0.3% rise and London's -0.4% dip. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Thursday session recovering +0.3%. Hong Kong fell -0.7% on the day. Shanghai shed another -0.2%. Singapore ended up +0.8%. The ASX200 ended down -0.2% but the NZX50 was unchanged, recovering from a tough start.
We should note that the Tesla share price has fallen a very sharp +3.7% so far today. Over the past week that has compounded to a -10% drop. It is actually down more than a third so far this year.
The price of gold will start today -US$15 lower than yesterday at US$2158/oz.
Oil prices have risen another +US$1.50 to just over US$81.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$85/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 61.4 USc and -20 bps softer than this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are firm at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 56.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.3 and unchanged from yesterday. In fact we have been within a tight range around this level for more than two weeks now.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,337 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.
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125 Comments
Probably discharge without conviction. You've got to be facing a decade in prison to get off with a years home detention.
Most politicians are "thieves" stealing from the people for their own self interest, but it's normal and accepted so all ok?
They act like their the employers setting their own pay, perks and allowances with a review only every 3 years (but they may not actually lose their job), and their pay rises aren't subject to a formal performance review. They don't even get their jobs based on meritocracy or competence in their fields of responsibility.
I won't be outraged. Karma is. Hate and anger towards her won't change anything except ones own energy and causes more human separation. Teachings in human development suggest we are all mirrors and mirror work is when you can look at yourself and accept somewhere in your life you have also acted as a "thief". Then you can move on and accept she is just human like you are, susceptible to mistakes and errors of judgement, and still deserving of compassion and understanding. You can focus on your own behaviours and not be enraged by others, knowing that karma will hit you as it does others, and you will also still be deserving of compassion and understanding.
Do unto others as you wish done unto you applies to our words and emotions towards others whether they have done "good" or "bad".
Speaking of "wet bus tickets': "Under Article 201 of Iran's Islamic Penal Code, the following punishments can be carried out for theft: (a) On the first occasion, amputation of the full length of four fingers of the right hand of the thief in such a manner that the thumb and palm of the hand remain."
Chris,
On one hand, I feel sorry for her having come here as a refugee and went on to do very well, but on the other hand,if she is just 'slapped with a wet bus ticket', it helps perpetuate the view of one law for the well-connected and one for the poor and marginalised in society.
Whatever her problems, I think she should face a significant penalty.
The issue here is surely that she had no need to do it.
Thus the most likely cause is mental health... and the public shaming won't help that either.
I am normally intolerant of unpunished crime but for someone who has worked as hard as her to have got where she is... which I very much respect... now I suspect she doesn't need too heavy a stick to learn but needs help and to help others who are struggling.
"Refugee" lol - you mean a child born to well off parents who simply decided that they didnt want to live in Iran anymore, so flew to NZ on holiday and then claimed political asylum. She was hardly a child from a war torn country that had been starving in a refugee camp for years, or who suffered extreme violence and abuse. Her refugee experience is limited to what was written on her immigration papers lol
A rabble. Thankfully the electorate has seen fit to ensure The Greens never got around a cabinet table. From the look of it they are not fit to even be in parliament nowadays. This is not what MMP introduced to parliament with Fitzsimmons and Donald. It is the dead opposite. A party, a cauldron of seething, spitting rancour, envy and hypocrisy.
Its the particular problem with List MPs. Parties can put up any idiot on their List, and citizens have zero choice about who gets in to Parliament. At least with Electorate MPs there is accountability to voters, and if you don't like their qualifications for the job you dont vote for them.
Very true too, unfortunately. National has had plenty of form. Starting with the exit of Gilmour and then exposure of a series of unsavoury and/or miscreant behaviour, Barclay, Ross, Walker/Boag, Falloon for example. Quite honestly it is about time that all NZ’s political parties took a serious in depth look at their selection criteria for candidates. They are meant to be law makers, not law breakers.
Yes. Just. All those currently breathing will be exempt. Once the policy is enacted a chip will be introduced at birth. This will discourage breeding which is obviously a bonus. We have far too many POB. Don’t get emotional about it. It is all for saving mankind and the planet. The way things are tracking, we’re indirectly euthanising ourselves and the planet anyway. Have a good weekend.
this is a nice visual ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUwmA3Q0_OE
can skip to about 3 minutes in ... and you can see the problem ... each flash another 1 mill
Like bacteria in a petri dish
As an aside, I wonder how many Greens have watched this... hmmm
Frank,
"Yes. Just. All those currently breathing will be exempt". You are far too soft. I am sure that when you explain the position to your aged parents, they will readily agree to take the pills you just happen to have with you.
As I am rapidly closing in on 79, i am glad you don't know where I live.
Don’t be so sure. I have had many obscure “careers”, one of them was collecting high value A1 intel to assist government agencies in their day to day operations. Another weird occurrence here is that I was taught to fly helicopters by a Mr Linklater in 1989. Ring any bells?
"Yes. And as you will know by now, my cynicism extends to all parties."
HM, doesn't your cynicism extend to everyone in society, public servants, bank economists, developers, real estate agents, judges, the masses, basically anyone except yourself seems to be a useless, not very bright waste of space?
Our politicians reflect society. I think this cynicism towards politicians is the real danger, it leads us to Trump and the extreme politics of the US.
Even though it is now widely known that Luxon is the worse National leader in living memory, I still respect him for standing and putting his hand up to lead the country.
There is no excuse for what GG has done and she will lose everything she has worked for.
Ouch
as I said yesterday, we’ve become an exceedingly individualistic, self interested collection of people. There’s been a fundamental breakdown of values and sense of purpose. The woke left are a big part of the problem - prioritising individual liberties ahead of the collective.
Whether of the right or left persuasion, extreme liberalism has a huge amount to answer for.
That’s just my opinion anyway
Yes the collective community driven spirit is slowly dying as time goes by. We are the only ones who can change that, however with the ever-digital age upon us and with the ensuing decline of human interaction, I worry for the future in this regard. We as society need to be able to discuss and disagree on issues to come to a collective solution, and going back to your woke left comment, these types and this culture removes this productive debate by inserting too much emotion and reactiveness into a factual and logical debate. One is supposed to learn or hear something, analyse and interpret, gauge their own reaction then form a logical and thought out answer based on their experiences, beliefs and knowledge. Sadly the more common way is t hear, react, bleat and shout until something is changed, cancelled, boycotted, destroyed all for the sake of the one individual who could have simply taken more time to think on their reaction instead of letting it take control of them.
I can definitely see a link. As they are not voted for directly, they remain somewhat distanced in terms of publicity. Many are unknown outside of the party faithful. Meaning they don't have the same scutiny applied by the general public/voters into their persona/behaviour.
That relative anonymity provides the list MPs much more freedom, than a person scrounging for votes would have.
I think of all the little things an Environmental party could be pushing right now. An example - in Australia they have realized that coloured plastic bottle tops can't be recycled (often clear bottles with coloured tops on, are rejected). Their answer - make all tops of clear plastic. Another small step - make all NZ manufacturers switch to easy-to -remove labels. There has to be hundreds more of these little steps, but the Greens are more interested in their Socialist agenda.
Yep, nothing about plastic, cans in landfills,recycling same , banning/restricting soft drinks and other plastics, , hundreds of thousands of wallabies, deer etc destroying the environment,fuel wasting speed humps; as you say , hundreds of little or large steps that are not Green election issues
Yep but that requires regulation of "The Market", that's a no no. They'd have to extend it to the use of chemicals and toxins - that's both environmental and human health. What about regulating the production of unhealthy foods and technology?
Oh we need a Health and Wellbeing Party. Isn't that Labour's role or are they just about protecting the workers?
Haha it would appear our reliance on government is the delusion. But we the people are obviously incapable too.
What exactly is the Socialist agenda - we are a society, are we not? Or are we fast becoming something else?
Sentencing? You mean the discharge without conviction due to the wide range of mitigating factors already been publicised.
- Early guilty plea
- previous good standing in the community
- mental health
- Ongoing physical health issues
- disproportionate future impact on career
- Already stepped down from parliament
- publicity
- ...
"...Britain’s First Light Fusion announced last week that it had broken the world record for pressure at the Sandia National Laboratories in the US, pushing the boundary to 1.85 terapascal, five times the pressure at the core of the Earth.
“Overnight, it basically changed the cost per watt of a fusion reactor by a factor of almost 40,” said Professor Dennis Whyte, plasma doyen at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The March edition of the IEEE Transactions on Applied Superconductivity published six papers ratifying different aspects of the technology.
...Commonwealth’s chief executive, Bob Mumgaard, told me the game-changing technology scarcely existed 10 years ago, and was still in its infancy five years ago. “The breakthrough is in superconductors. Much stronger magnets mean that we can build a plant that is 40 times smaller,” he said.
Dr Mumgaard said Commonwealth is eyeing costs of $60-80 MWh with scale, undercutting the 24/7 cost of intermittent renewables paired gas peaker plants or with energy storage in most places. “It might be even lower. We don’t use uranium. There is no risk of melt-downs,” he said."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/13/nuclear-fusion-energy-b….
Ahh, fusion it only a few years away now, as said every year since 1950.
Another distraction from the fossil fuel lobby trying to get people to believe in a free and unlimited power source that is just around the corner. Used by the fossil fuel lobby to try to get people to not face up to the reality of needing to stop fossil fuel induced climate change.
What's up Profile? Did your paymasters dump a nice cheque in your account to get onto some fossil fuel propaganda?
It's all a marketing game. Recent study shows EVs are less environmentally friendly (due to exessive weight on roads, Tyre usage etc etc) but u don't hear musk talking about it. The long term outcome may be better but don't confuse buying today's EV with saving the planet.
I believe in climate change.. but there is too much smoke for us to see the truth.
No they are generally significantly heavier. Some more than others, but on a like for like basis I wouldn't call it slightly. 1600kg for the current leaf, 1635kg for the mg4 EV, vs 1360kg for a Corolla hatchback and 1380 for a Mazda 3 hatchback, or for midsize SUVs, the Mazda Cx5 1575kg, Nissan X-trail 1540kg, but for the EVs, Tesla Model Y 1900kg, and the Kia Ev6 at 2043kg, and the porky VW id5.pro at 2110kg.
The fud is that the study the earlier poster is referring to only looked at tyre wear, totally ignoring CO2, NOx and all the other service parts/fluids.
profile,
Have you read this? https://firstlightfusion.com/media/fusion
No matter how far away it is ... It is exceedingly likely to happen.
Just how small a fusion unit will be is a good question. E.g. will we see it cars? Probably never. Ships? Probably. Will we first see them generating electricity? Almost certainly. Ergo, ICE powered cars will die a death. Nice! And I should note that by then, EVs will be so, so, so much better and cheaper than they are now. Nice. (N-ice = Not ICE.)
Speedmax,
You might want to look closely at just how these 'renewables' are built. Do you know what materials are needed to build a wind farm? To save you the trouble, they cannot be built without fossil fuels and they require to be replaced at the end of their working lives. Much the same goes for solar arrays. How do you propose dealing with intermittency? Even if you build massive batteries-requiring fossil fuels again-they are only useful for very short periods. That is, they discharge their stored power very quickly.
The problem with renewables is that while the energy source is renewable the collection of that energy is not.
Spark headcount losses are also AI driven.. globally we are seeing the start of a massive layoff driven by Ai in some industries. We will get our productivity improvement but simultaneously the unemployment that rbnz wants (construction, customer service... and more) but those people may not be employable in other places.
Exacerbated by this Simeon Brown's ideologically driven approach of building more roads and doubling down on ICE car dependency.
Guess what? That means more money spent on our two biggest and expensive import sectors (fuel and transportation). We can expect balance of payments to get even worse.
The NZD will lose so much value if we cut before US FED this would push inflation sky high over here. People are just going to understand 5% or 6% OCR is new normal this is not unusual historically. FED will keep OCR around 5% level as central banks need some backbone in fiat currencies or inflation will just take over again, and for those who believe rates will go under 4% again the wait will be a very long one if ever. I think central banks have realised easy money just doesn’t work as it is USD is just holding onto reserve currency status.
well actually its really about relying on imported Oil
which we have to scrounge round the back of the couch & trade stuff to get ....
Cos that is what allows us to live like kings
Interest rates and currencies are just a check so you dont consume more than you deserve ... and it just so happens the last 20 years we have been trading off sections for immigrants ... damn the (infrastructure) consequences
Like I said 5% to 6% OCR are quite normal historically, and way better than high inflation. The problem is that many people believed rates wouldn’t go up after years of cheap money which pushed up asset prices now people are in huge debt compared to income unfortunately this people will be paying higher rates for years when refinancing which will lead into lower asset prices and financial problems many people with mortgages will refinance mortgages for longer periods and some will sell at a loss creating another downward turn in property prices in New Zealand
A Low-Trust Society Is an Impoverished Society
Faced with incompetent, unaccountable, corrupt bureaucracies and a culture overflowing with scams, frauds, imposters and get-rich-quick schemes, people give up and drop out. Rather than start a business and accept all the risks just to get dumped on or ripped off, they don't even try to start a business. Given the financial insecurity that is now the norm, they decide not to get married or have children.
"US bill would ban TikTok from app stores unless ByteDance divests it" This is a good old-fashioned shakedown, basically extortion: "we take over TikTok or we ban it". https://ft.com/content/fdc63261-d4a6-4179-b239-7b1f68f3e0b8 If you think about it, it's fascinating because it's the first time a major social network emerges that isn't American, so for the first time we get to see how America reacts to this. They've told the rest of the world for now 2 decades to accept their social networks, that the internet was borderless, that in a globalized world it was normal to have massive tech companies spanning the whole world... with always understanding that if such a tech company were to emerge elsewhere than in the US it would be welcomed there, just like the US expects everyone to welcome them. Well, now we can see that these rules had a significant addendum to it: *as long as the companies in question are American. If they aren't, they're "security threats" unless they fall under American ownership... Link
Maybe tiktok was a very smart move. When you look at how it's influencing everyone, rewiring peoples brains especially the young it's easy to sow discord everywhere else.
We may not agree with "communist" China but maybe they're becoming more aware of Western affluence and the impact it has. They do have a history of spiritual wisdom (that the west is devoid of) that they see needs to be brought back into the material world. Their methods may not be the best but it would appear their more willing to learn from the past, and they have a much better ability to formulate a long term vision than the Anglosphere does.
The American unemployment numbers are all lies. You only need to be doing 1 hour a week and you are considered employed and after 6 months of being unemployed you drop of the list. Total bullshit and smoke and mirrors, people over there now being forced to try and do 2 or even 3 jobs to try and stay afloat. Trump is going to rip Biden a new one in November.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there is still no sign here of a wavering American labour market.
U.S. Labour market has been relentlessly bulldozering expectations over the last year. Companies are fighting over a proportionally diminishing pool of labour, it's a race to the bottom for hire and hold.
This was a shock. Dollar Tree is an important discounter in North America.
At the same time, Japan's key discounter Daiso looks to expand into that market.
Established in the 1970s, Daiso Industries had more than 4,000 stores across Japan as of last year, and it has expanded into 25 countries and regions.
While Daiso originally entered the U.S. in 2005, it has scaled these efforts up over the past few years — the retailer now has about 120 stores across seven states, with more in the cards. In contrast to the Japan model, prices — although low, starting at $1.75 or $1.99 depending on the state — fluctuate somewhat.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/03/11/companies/daiso-us-exp…
BusinessNZ PMI out for February.
https://businessnz.org.nz/pmi/on-the-improve/
Still contracting. As we have been for almost a year. And before that it was pretty anemic.
You have to go back to the post-covid boom between Jun-20 and Apr-22 to see the last period of expansion.
We're still going backwards ...
GDP for Q4-2023 out 21st March. (Note that Q1-2024 will almost be finished by then so we'll be looking back in time to almost three months ago. And the PMI shows we've been contracting in those 3 months.)
Oh dear. More evidence that the NACTF can't do maths. Who'd have thought, ay?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/second-blowout-in-a-week-governm…
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