Net migration gain sets a new record of 129,000 in year to October

Economy / news

Population gain from migration running at more than double the previous record

12th Dec 23, 12:01pm by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration surged to a new record of 128,919 in the 12 months to the end of October.

Provisional estimates from Statistics NZ show just under a quarter of a million people (245,648) arrived in New Zealand on a long-term basis in the year to October. Another 116,730 departed long-term, giving a net gain of 128,919.

That is the biggest net gain ever recorded in any 12 month period.

Statistics NZ's records for this dataset go back to 2002. The previous high for any equivalent period (year to October) during that time was a net gain of 63,645 in 2016.

That suggests current migration levels are running at more than double their previous record levels.

In the year to October there was an estimated net gain, long-term arrivals minus long-term departures, of 175,431 non-NZ citizens which was partially offset by a net loss of 44,514 NZ citizens.

Altogether, 70,966 NZ citizens left long-term in the year to October, while 26,452 returned after an extended absence overseas.

And 226,052 foreign migrants arrived in the country, offset by 50,621 departures.

Non-NZ citizens arriving long-term included 87,895 on work visas, 59,774 on visitor visas, 31,954 on student visas and 29,647 on residence visas.

By country of citizenship, the top 10 source countries for long-term arrivals were India 48,103, Philippines 35,666, China 27,277 (plus 675 from Hong Kong), returning NZ citizens 26,452, Fiji 10,554, South Africa 9333, Australia 6855, UK 6542, Sri Lanka 6367 and USA 5561.

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128 Comments

by keithwoodford | 12th Dec 23, 12:09pm 1702336157

This can only end badly.

KeithW

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 12:40pm 1702338027

This can only end badly.

I've expressed similar sentiments but everyone at the water cooler just yawns. They don't care anymore.

- Not enough infrastructure to cope and the subsequent deterioration in the quality of life (migrants and existing citizen). And all the social decay that comes with people desperate for shelter, food, money.

- More exploitation of migrants (most NZers don't care about these people) and related fraudulent behavior from the slave masters.

- More transformation of suburban housing into boarding lodges / hotels and greater emergence of slum lords.

by JimboJones | 12th Dec 23, 1:48pm 1702342121

No one ever talks about the country they come from. Poor countries spend lots of money skilling people, then we poach them so we don't have to spend that money.

by 1689 Baptist | 12th Dec 23, 2:02pm 1702342928

Philipines and Lebanon are countries that actively encourage their citizens to work overseas. At one point, 75% of Lebanon's GDP was repatriated funds from citizens working elsewhere.

by HughJorgan | 12th Dec 23, 3:10pm 1702347048

I watched a great video on exactly this point. If you want to help people, you should encourage the most skilled people to stay put.

As a country we know what it is like to keep losing skilled people, imagine the impact on less fortunate countries.

by JohnTrz | 12th Dec 23, 12:34pm 1702337642

Labour's insanity. Winston, speak up!

by Palmtree08 | 12th Dec 23, 1:28pm 1702340931

Not just Labour, the whole political spectrum and the lobbyists and media apologists below them.

by Baywatch | 12th Dec 23, 1:39pm 1702341574

National could shut the door now.....but nothing will happen as they are "business friendly" government.

by JimboJones | 12th Dec 23, 1:49pm 1702342153

Its not as important as renaming Waka Kotahi.

by Hamish | 12th Dec 23, 2:40pm 1702345251

Tobacco friendly

by Te Kooti | 12th Dec 23, 12:44pm 1702338291

On the brighter side, my son and I had some fantastic Indian food out of a small food truck the other day. He's hooked now.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 12:51pm 1702338702

On the brighter side, my son and I had some fantastic Indian food out of a small food truck the other day. He's hooked now.

I see this as a sad thing. Pakeha and Maori look at migrants as people who have better food.

by Te Kooti | 12th Dec 23, 12:57pm 1702339020

It's a positive externality, please don't assign anything more than this to it.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 1:05pm 1702339542

It's a positive externality, please don't assign anything more than this to it.

It's a positive externality.

We like to think we're all cosmopolitan, In reality we're an island of hicks at the end of the world. Characters like Anthony Bourdain will never come from NZ.

by Te Kooti | 12th Dec 23, 1:14pm 1702340067

Well now he's dead it could be a challenge.

FWIW Gordon Ramsay came to NZ and cooked with Monique Fiso and he absolutely loved it. I gcouldn't imagine having such a permanent downer about your home as you seem to.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 2:04pm 1702343043

Ramsay is an Anglo Saxon buffoon. Nothing on Bourdain when it comes to understanding culture, food, and the world.

by BigOldWeapon | 12th Dec 23, 4:34pm 1702352068

Lol. Back to the water cooler with you.

by DMC45 | 12th Dec 23, 5:01pm 1702353705

My assessment of that amusing exchange is that Te Kooti adroitly managed to insert JC into a water cooler.

by mfd | 12th Dec 23, 12:59pm 1702339140

Variety is the spice of life.

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 1:32pm 1702341155

Nice play on words! And yes, absolutely.

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 1:33pm 1702341194

"I see this as a sad thing. Pakeha and Maori look at migrants as people who have better food"

They do have better food, much better, open your mind JC.

by Nzdan | 12th Dec 23, 7:48pm 1702363706

Many also have better work ethics and attitudes.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 12th Dec 23, 1:17pm 1702340236

Keith,

Weren't many farmers crying out for more labor?

Surely that sector at least will be thrilled about this?

Or is it the wrong sort of labor for them?

by keithwoodford | 12th Dec 23, 2:01pm 1702342911

Yes, migrants have been very important to the dairy industry. And they have been highly regarded for the way they work. But...

KeithW

by bibi | 12th Dec 23, 2:51pm 1702345876

1 - Labour in the dairy industry could be very adequately supplied by guest workers, not migrants

2 - Many/Most of them live on site, so they don't contribute much to any of our housing issues

by Richardfromauckland | 12th Dec 23, 1:55pm 1702342520

Absolutely. Add into the mix Luxon's claim they'll get a FTA with India in the next year. India's trade negotiations (for quite sometime) have included greater movement of people. They're really not required (by in large immigrants from India recently have been weighted towards lower end jobs, or students).

by streetwise | 12th Dec 23, 2:09pm 1702343391

Keith

"This can only end badly."

I intuitively agree with you. But could you please explain and expand upon just why and how this could end badly.

Many Thanks

by DonKerrBab | 12th Dec 23, 2:37pm 1702345070

At a glance on numbers if you import low skilled labour assume they earn minimum wage. That would suggest on average their contribution to government (taxes etc) would be less than what they would receive from government in the form of services provided (health, infrastructure any welfare etc) . So that would mean in the medium term government subsidises imported low skilled immigration. That spending needs to be attained from somewhere else. Where else? Right now debt.

by keithwoodford | 12th Dec 23, 2:54pm 1702346045

Streetwise

The answer would require an article rather than just a comment. I may look at doing that over the summer.

KeithW

by streetwise | 12th Dec 23, 9:02pm 1702368178

Keith

That would be great if you could do an article on immigration.

It's true we are being inundated with immigrants, especially from India. I encounter them every day.

But it's also true the public are not being supplied with any impartial account of the consequences from any of the "experts" out there such as bank economists.

I feel that we should know what skills the country is gaining compared to what skills the country is losing. Apparently, the statisticians and politicians deem it unnecessary for the general public to know such information. Or they could be just incapable.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Dec 23, 9:26am 1702412788

Thanks Keith. An article 'direct from the farm gate' would be both insightful and helpful.

by AdamJay1990 | 12th Dec 23, 12:09pm 1702336180

This can't be good for inflation right?

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 12:34pm 1702337687

This can't be good for inflation right?

The ruling elite believe that more people will raise aggregate demand and make them look like good economic managers. It's not a left/right thing. They're both equally as desperate and don't give a rats about the social consequences.

by Blackbeard | 12th Dec 23, 12:59pm 1702339189

It’s the same play book that most western countries read from…it’s the go to lever when your economy can’t sustain itself. One thing is for sure, global warming will go ballistic with all the added migrants soaking up the carbon rich western lifestyle.

by JimboJones | 12th Dec 23, 1:50pm 1702342237

Its "good" for labour inflation.

by xingmowang | 12th Dec 23, 12:17pm 1702336628

there are not many ways that NZ can go forward and up ard economically other than importing labours to build then sell it to rich immigrants, and sell off NZ's assets to foreign ownership.

we will observe both going rampant during this government.

by Baywatch | 12th Dec 23, 12:26pm 1702337174

Finally X...something we agree on. Looking forward to the roll back on tax cut promise..or something worse?

by John Mendel | 12th Dec 23, 12:50pm 1702338650

Kiwis are already lost the battle

by Te Kooti | 12th Dec 23, 1:03pm 1702339393

You're a New Zealander now John, as te reo Kiwi has been removed.

by xingmowang | 12th Dec 23, 1:04pm 1702339499

some Kiwi start to taste what Maori tasted 250 years ago.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 12th Dec 23, 1:19pm 1702340364

So true.

But this time it being by the rich ... No wait! ... It was the rich back then too.

by huttman | 12th Dec 23, 12:25pm 1702337132

so it is size of 1.5 Palmerston North.

by Larry76 | 12th Dec 23, 12:36pm 1702337783

Yup, and they will almost all stay in Auckland....but our clever new leaders say no more money for trains, regional roading or investment in water infrastructure. Welcome to the new capital of the banana republic.

by Te Kooti | 12th Dec 23, 1:10pm 1702339859

I was in Wellington last week and it occurred to me how much nicer it is than Auckland. For $1m you can still buy a house walking distance to town, it had more of a buzz about it. You can get paua and crays 10 min drive from CBD. It was even warmer than Auckland that day. I really struggle with Auckland, it's a poor mans Sydney/Melbourne with worse weather and traffic.

by Baywatch | 12th Dec 23, 1:42pm 1702341736

Sorry have recently returned to Auckland from Welly the weather will drive you slowly insane in Welly.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Dec 23, 2:30pm 1702344606

Agreed

100% correct that Auckland has all of the big city life problems with few of the benefits considering inferior infrastructure, public transport etc ... but Wellington's weather is so grim (having spent a fair bit of time there) that I'd go slowly insane there too.

As far as cities go, I still maintain that Christchurch is the best place in NZ for the average person insomuch that you've got reasonably affordable housing options with a lot of modern housing - by current standards - a variety of employers (Wellington too dependent on government jobs, as they might be liable to find out soon), decent enough weather although the norwester is admittedly tedious, and good proximity to nice beaches, skifields and so on. Also good connections internationally via the airport.

Downsides are the night life is a bit dull, fewer events than Auckland or Wellington, and obviously half the CBD is taken up by empty lots or Wilson's car parks.

Having lived between Wellington and Chch for family reasons, I don't feel that Chch is that far behind in terms of 'things to do'. There's only so many times you can look at the giant squid in Te Papa before you get bored.

by huttman | 12th Dec 23, 4:12pm 1702350746

they mayor already blows it.

by K.W. | 12th Dec 23, 12:28pm 1702337338

I hope they all send a thank you card to Jacinda and Chippie.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 12:41pm 1702338072

I hope they all send a thank you card to Jacinda and Chippie.

Cindy reached cult leader status. Her followers believe her leadership was akin to the birth of a religious deity and that she's only gone because of evil forces (the internet, conspiracies, the devil, etc). These people seem to believe that life under Ardern's rule was some kind of utopian Wonderland - as good as it will ever get for (wo)menkind.

by Larry76 | 12th Dec 23, 12:43pm 1702338207

Another old fart who couldn't cope with someone that didn't look like him or has a different viewpoint from him. It's OK now mate, nasty Cindy is gone and the "rightful" party of government is back headed up by John Key 2.0, Old Guy and Mr Feebles.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 12:54pm 1702338884

Another old fart who couldn't cope with someone that didn't look like him or has a different viewpoint from him.

What was Cindy's "viewpoint"? Be kind? How did that work out?

Personally I think she's a fraud. And in light of immigration, I don't think she or her govt showed much understanding about the objective of immigration.

by Baywatch | 12th Dec 23, 1:43pm 1702341797

Everyones a fraud really..especially on this site..

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 2:15pm 1702343732

Can only speak for myself. That must mean Everyone -1. And Keith Woodford. And Audaxes. So minimum -3.

by Colonial Viper | 14th Dec 23, 2:53pm 1702518780

A heck of a lot of people however are excellent at projection. Just saying.

by number8wired | 12th Dec 23, 4:14pm 1702350848

Literally no one has said this. I've never spoken to anyone, even the most die hard Labour supporter who speaks like this. Neither does anyone talk like this about Luxon. The only group in the west that talk about leaders like this is the MAGA crowd. They're also the ones who project comments like yours on others.

Do you not have enough legitimate issues to criticise that you make up weird statements like this? Or is this what Hoskings tells people is happening? It boggles my mind.

by Colonial Viper | 14th Dec 23, 2:56pm 1702519005

They don't frame it in this way but you get the same thing from die hard Labour supporters. If you can get them to admit any of Jacinda's failings its simply because she had a tough run of it due to COVID, terrorist attacks, natural disasters etc, nothing at all to do with her or her government being inept frauds out mountain cycling during lockdown and who constantly refused to take responsibility even if they did personally cause the car crash while drunk. I trust that you're not this sort.

by Larry76 | 12th Dec 23, 12:44pm 1702338258

Actually, try blaming all the whinging employers who couldn't cope with only accessing NZ labour pool and paying higher wages following the lockdowns. It was a blatant subsidy/welfare support to businesses, followed by looking the other way on our growing infrastructure deficit - noted in that report quoted here a few days back. A true Labour Party would never cave in on such matters.

by K.W. | 12th Dec 23, 12:49pm 1702338543

People and businesses are always going to whinge and whine - like spoilt children demanding things from their parents. Its the Govt's role to be the parent and make decisions that are in everyone's best interests, not pander to the demands of those who throw the biggest tantrums. They could have put more money into training programmes and focused on getting the huge increase in the number on the dole/SPB into jobs, but instead they completely disrupted the vocational training institutes, increased welfare payments, removed benefit sanctions for not looking for work, and imported a ton of people to do the jobs that 362,000 people thought werent worth getting off a benefit for.

by ACB | 12th Dec 23, 12:50pm 1702338634

Best comment of the day. Privatise profits and socialise costs of mass immigration.

by Chaosinflesh | 12th Dec 23, 1:23pm 1702340624

600k people think it's not worth getting off super for either (the other 300k take the work and their super, thank you very much!).

And half those 362k you're bemoaning are considered too ill/disabled to work.

Not that I want any of these groups working - increasing pay for those here increases the tax take, increases what we [are willing to] spend on the aged/ill/infirm. Shame that it reduces the share going to the capitalists, but hey, that's fixable with mass migration!

by K.W. | 12th Dec 23, 5:35pm 1702355708

Most of those claiming to be ill are suffering from made up problems. There has also been a massive increase in the number of people on the disability benefit in the last couple of years so its clear its being rorted. Its simply too easy to fake a stress disorder, anxiety or depression or claim to be autistic or ADHD or something. This is why the new Govt is overhauling the doctors handing out the free benefit passes.

by agnostium | 12th Dec 23, 7:02pm 1702360945

"Most of those claiming to be ill are suffering from made up problems"

I assume you can back this up by solid evidence or do you mean the thousands of super benefit claimants that clog our hospitals with their imaginary ailments?

by Nzdan | 12th Dec 23, 7:54pm 1702364052

These superannuants all wanting the latest high tech gadgets to treat them in hospital after they've Biden'ed off their e-bike. Why back in their parent's day there were none of these high tech whizz gadgets. People pedaled everywhere, and if you got sick you just made a hot toddy and got on with it. Bunch of soft pensioners these days I tell you.

by Flying high | 13th Dec 23, 7:18am 1702405131

https://youtu.be/wDcPxrl5b-o?si=aMwr88NJUhfUEoh6

Before you get exasperated, it wasn't a cake walk in the 80s 90s

by pacifica | 13th Dec 23, 2:25am 1702387540

If you are unaware of conditions like MS, MD, ME, EDS Autism and ADHD, CFS, CP that is your ignorance. You are just advertising that you have such a wide gap in basic medical understanding that you think conditions that kill people before they make it to 50 are made up... it speaks more to your lack of ability to read and learn which shows a greater lack of basic education in you than anyone with those conditions. Don't worry I will give you a short time to try to do a simple lookup on google and reconsider your statements before writing you off as too stupid to ever take seriously. Fun fact many incurable degenerative autoimmune conditions are triggered by viruses, oh did we just have a massive pandemic why yes I think we did. Average time to diagnosis for men is around 4 years, for women it is 4 times longer due to many autoimmune and neurodiverse conditions, especially those that affect the brain, have no clear and easy diagnostic tests and we have scientifically proven (and really easy to test for) medical bias in diagnosis. For decades many medical professionals did not even think it was possible for women to have neurodiverse conditions, rather they put even serious medical illness that would kill in a matter of years down to hysteria.

Another reason you see more disabled people now than say in the 60s, 70s and 80s is because most are no longer taken from their parents to be imprisoned and then tortured and raped as children until they die young. This was true for many with neurodiverse & learning disorder conditions. In case you were wondering about 250000 children were affected and considered by the Royal Commission but it is hard to count how many more when many were put into unmarked mass graves on the properties. Just lookup Sir Robert Martin's history. NZ has never had a good record and when it comes to disabled people we have rather they be out of sight, out of life and out of mind attitude. Much like your attitude its ok for them to die of torture and neglect just so long as you don't have to have them in your community. You were ok with men being sold time to rape children in a hospital who also had their teeth removed without painkillers but how dare just one of them tries to live in your community, attend school and then try to have an independent life. Somehow I think you need to take a really good look at your mortal soul because I know where you will be going.

I have left out most details of disability treatment during those years because most is really gruesome and inhumane. Sadly even a dispassionate statement of the facts well established is underlining just how little NZ was capable of human rights for disabled people. Some social groups will protest now for minor qualms but it pales significantly to what disabled people still have to put up with and survive through everyday without a public voice.

Over 50% are denied access to education, employment and training. Think on that, that for more than 10% of the population it is worse than flipping a coin to have access at all. Many will have zero income support so abusive relationships are the only way they can survive and usually they die young. Compare that with a pension beneficiary with a non means tested benefit over the age of 65 because a birthday is considered more disabling than actual disabilities.

by interesting1234 | 13th Dec 23, 8:36am 1702409818

If you are unaware of conditions like MS, MD, ME, EDS Autism and ADHD, CFS, CP that is your ignorance. You are just advertising that you have such a wide gap in basic medical understanding that you think conditions that kill people before they make it to 50 are made up

While we all read your passion and feeling of wrongdoing, it is not asserting a point by calling many ignorant and uneducated. If we were to continue down that road you would be considered to be insulting everyone who is not medically trained or had a level of medical knowledge which would constitute a large portion of our society.

by Hastings | 13th Dec 23, 8:47am 1702410455

Pacifica, your response should awaken the humanity of everyone who bothers to read it. Well said💪

by Colonial Viper | 13th Dec 23, 4:48pm 1702439335

You are mixing and matching a whole lot of very different conditions, many of which are mild to moderate in most people allowing them to lead 99% normal lives, to make what point exactly? The fact of the matter is that family is what people need to rely on not an impersonal state bureaucracy which is happier to spend a billion dollars on weapons and military jets than on helping the disabled into meaningful work.

Further it doesn't negate the point that we now have a society where the development of a disciplined work ethic serving the common good (or even just for the good of one's own self and family) is seen as anachronistic. As a result too many flakey and erratic people are given a pass to continue being flakey and erratic. Why do you think employers love employing hard working immigrants?

And before you decry the state of our health and social support system - which everyone here knows is failing everyone and not just the disabled - spend some time in an actually poor country where there is virtually no health or social support system.

by pacifica | 14th Dec 23, 2:39am 1702474758

Fun fact with accessibility and access to medical support they ALL CAN LEAD NORMAL LIVES. While there is no cure for all of them access to education, housing, access to medical treatment or support available even in Australia, and access to employment means they all would have the opportunity to lead normal lives.

Try living in a country where you can be earning 150k and not have housing access in any city, none being homeless. Try seeing how easy it is to stay in a job while the homeless hovel or car you are in floods. Try getting work without transport access to any work. Try getting a job after being denied education leading to little to no ability to read and write. Try getting a job when no employers will hire you because of your disability or worse yet denial of medical treatment leading to regular sepsis events and near death multiple times. We have current human rights abuses right here at home. No one who leads a normal life would ever be able to do so if they had to put up with one ounce of the bullshit discrimination and denial of access disabled people do. Not even food support is funded by the health department in NZ for disabled people (unlike the support they offer the elderly). Think on that, that we have disabled people who often do starve to death when they do not have rescue from outside 3rd parties and charities because in NZ our health dept (and in turn that means us), we do not believe that disabled people have the right to access cooked food.

The conditions above have been applied to people of all those conditions equally. In fact that is one thing we do achieve equity on which is disability discrimination can be applied across the board. Hence even though there is really simple basic support and treatment for all those conditions in NZ many are denied access to even the same medical support your "normal" people have and even access to living necessities leading to premature deaths below 50. Even recently one women under 30kg had to be rescued from a hospital to allow her to have access to food. Many with paralysis were left trapped in their own feces with lack of access to the medical support they paid for due to deliberate understaffing and overcharging (ensuring the claimed hours are still charged while leaving someone without access to their meds, a bathroom, food & water for days) with no heads up they would do this and no support to get outside help. They only thing separating you from living that life is the luck of the draw. Because at anytime you can become sick with a degenerative disease and while some are more susceptible due to genetics some conditions can start later in life, be de novo, be triggered by illness or injury that is not supported by ACC e.g. TBI, stroke.

by Colonial Viper | 14th Dec 23, 2:51pm 1702518715

All you are telling me is that life is hard for most people in society and that the state does not do what it should to help. Is there any news there.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Dec 23, 1:09pm 1702339754

Don't necessarily disagree with you, but blame ultimately rests with Labour.

They had an absolute majority, could do whatever they wanted to do with zero actual need to kowtow to the business/cheap imported labour lobby.

Business owners are a relatively small slice of the population. Labour would have lost nothing by telling the even smaller slice of business owners crying for more cheap labour (not all business owners/employers think the same ... for example I have no staff so no need for cheap imported labour) to get on their bike and take a ride.

It's actual pathetic, to be the party that claims to stand up for the average worker, to be in a position to resist the screeching of those wanting often wanting to undercut the average worker, and then to back down when there was probably no downside to staying resolute.

by Chaosinflesh | 12th Dec 23, 1:27pm 1702340841

and that's part of what lost them the election - they were shown to have no fortitude.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Dec 23, 1:37pm 1702341466

100%.

Had Chippy and team shown some guts here I think it would have been enough to swing the election (or at least make a material difference to the outcome and position well for the next time around).

Genuinely pathetic display.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 2:26pm 1702344396

It's Chippy's fault? I think he was thrown under the bus.

by dumbthoughts | 12th Dec 23, 2:31pm 1702344693

He was the party leader wasn't he? He had an opportunity to stamp his mark. I do agree he was somewhat thrown under the bus, but then again he had a hand in a great deal of the previous leader's policy anyway.

He could have turned a hospital pass into something good ... and for a while it looked promising with all the 'bread and butter' talk. But alas.

by J.C. | 12th Dec 23, 3:01pm 1702346498

He could have turned a hospital pass into something good

Yes he could have. Like Moses parting the Red Sea. It was a big ask given what Team Cindy had achieved with 5x more time. And he was an integral leader in Team Cindy.

by Colonial Viper | 13th Dec 23, 4:30pm 1702438250

That's odd, I thought Labour showed an immense amount of fortitude and backbone when they locked millions down under extended house arrest, damaged hundreds of thousands of childrens' education by preventing them from going to school for months, caused numerous family separations and splits along COVID issues, abrogated NZ citizens' right of return home, and destroyed longstanding family businesses left and right which could have operated quite safely the entire time. Maybe Labour just go weak at the knees on other issues?

by tomjones_04 | 12th Dec 23, 12:37pm 1702337825

My daily commute is noticeably more of an endurance event.

by Eschaton | 12th Dec 23, 2:48pm 1702345705

Its shocking and stressful.

by cromulent | 12th Dec 23, 4:14pm 1702350872

It's not just the week now - parts of the motorways are regularly at a standstill at the weekend.

During the week is awful enough but i shudder to think how bad it would be now if most companies didn't have a WFH policy like pre covid.

by K.W. | 12th Dec 23, 12:42pm 1702338134

Rent index is out tomorrow. Should be a hot one (Nov will probably be even worse after October's record net inflow of people). Currently rental listings are really low, about half what they usually are. In Blenheim, a town that already had a severe rental shortage that usually has 11 rental listings - has just 3.

by wingman | 12th Dec 23, 12:45pm 1702338332

This should send property prices in Auckland up.

by Zwifter | 12th Dec 23, 1:22pm 1702340541

Probably not according to some on here, apparently none of these immigrants can afford to buy a house so the DGM's are safe from rising house prices.

by interesting1234 | 12th Dec 23, 1:45pm 1702341957

Do remember though, that Auckland isn’t the whole of NZ. If a large proportion of immigrants want to live there then it will be it’s own little busy, slow-moving bubble.

by singautim | 12th Dec 23, 10:31pm 1702373478

Maybe not houses but CBD apartments.

by John Mendel | 12th Dec 23, 12:48pm 1702338482

Awesome news for those who have several houses (Luxon/other Parliament members?!)

Don't expect the new GOV to decrease house prices

by wingman | 12th Dec 23, 12:47pm 1702338427

Get on board then.

by Noncents | 12th Dec 23, 12:48pm 1702338493

One million, two million, three million... four. Five million, six million, seven million, more.

by K.W. | 12th Dec 23, 12:51pm 1702338662

"Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

by Piggy | 12th Dec 23, 12:56pm 1702339018

Brilliant - more the merrier it is good for NZ.

by rastus1 | 12th Dec 23, 1:04pm 1702339455

Meanwhile at Te Papa....we have the distraction the media keeps feeding us.

by Averageman | 12th Dec 23, 1:11pm 1702339891

What was the last Govt thinking. Without completing massive upgrades to water, sewage, hospitals, schools, roads and related infrastructure, this is just ruining whatever was left of the mess that Auckland is already. No one voted for the last million to arrive, and no one is voting for this to unfold without the requisite infrastructure being addressed.

Just sad.

by FCM | 12th Dec 23, 1:36pm 1702341400

Media will be on to this, all the immigrant stories who can't find a house, if they can, four families will move in, can't afford petrol etc etc as many have mentioned the social issues will be huge. Promised the world no doubt, only to arrive and find it sssoooo expensive compared to their home countries.

by Colonial Viper | 13th Dec 23, 4:59pm 1702439985

If our media had been doing their job as the fourth estate of holding political parties, civil servants and their self-proclaimed expert advisors to account over the last couple of decades, this nation would not be in the mess that it is in now. I hardly think that they are going to become part of the solution any time soon.

by singautim | 12th Dec 23, 10:33pm 1702373620

For a decade I actively voted against population increase / high rates of immigration. Problem is political parties do not keep their word.

by John Mendel | 12th Dec 23, 1:11pm 1702339868

I wonder.. if most Kiwis are moving overseas for better salaries and the vast majority of employers in NZ are Kiwis,

Whose fault is it?

by Averageman | 12th Dec 23, 1:41pm 1702341664

Kiwis are moving overseas because the opportunity to work hard and get ahead is being held hostage by idiot govt regulation and bloat, and stupid cost of shelter/housing.

Business owners are caught between customers wanting to pay less, and higher costs in rent and wages thanks to inflation- thanks Adrian Orrfull. Throw in aging power and water infrastructure resulting from decades of council incompetence aka Wellington, all demanding more and more tax and rates, why would you stay if your skill is easily transferable. Que most freshly minted medical students. As things tighten business owners that can do math will have only one option to stay afloat - less staff and investment in automation again removing jobs. Those that can't do math will be... bankrupt. So whose fault...very hard to avoid massive bloat in the cost of shelter and food, and long term under investment in infrastructure.

Suggest the answer is found by looking at the generation responsible for the last thirty years of governance. Rhymes with tumor....

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 1:22pm 1702340559

😳 WOW 😳

by MikeM | 12th Dec 23, 1:23pm 1702340612

Prepare for a surge in unemployment.

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 1:29pm 1702340986

It's a strange world when Labour floods NZ with foreigners and National tightens the tap...

by JimboJones | 12th Dec 23, 1:53pm 1702342427

They have tightened the tap? Last I heard they wanted to loosen it further with ACTs immigration policy.

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 2:02pm 1702342950

Nope, Luxon said the level of immigration is unsustainable, but it will take more that 3 weeks to draft up a new sound immigration target policy.

by Eschaton | 12th Dec 23, 2:49pm 1702345799

He ruled out a target yesterday.

by morepork | 12th Dec 23, 3:16pm 1702347414

The previous government were good at talk and announcing announcements too. Let's wait until the numbers actually come down before congratulating them

by the Joneses | 12th Dec 23, 3:20pm 1702347641

Luxon says a lot of things... https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/04/christopher-luxon-calls…

by agnostium | 12th Dec 23, 3:43pm 1702348981

You're dreaming mate. If they wanted to to they could stop immigration dead today. They will let it run and run. The only reason Labour opened the floodgates was because they were getting pressure from business and agriculture lobby and they thought if they didn't it would harm their election chances. It was another example of Chris H trying to appease the room to save votes rather than doing the right thing and it backfired.

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 4:47pm 1702352841

OK, let's see in 6 months time.

If National does not curb immigration, I will admit being wrong

If National does reduce the number of immigrants, you admit being wrong.

Fair ?

by agnostium | 12th Dec 23, 7:06pm 1702361167

Sounds good. Although when immigration falls it has to be clearly be related to policies the coalition has introduced to curb inflation like caps on immigrant numbers not a natural decline.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 13th Dec 23, 9:21am 1702412517

Keep calm. The effects of these migration surges are vastly overstated.

Depending on the age mix of the new immigrants, it takes at least a year for there to be any noticeable effect on house prices. And they affect house prices in different sectors (e.g. they're quite happy with apartments). And it depends where they all spread too. And spread they will.

And don't forget to factor in that Auckland is building 12,000 new dwellings per year with little or no immigration for a 2 year stretch. (Nationally it is ~47k.)

But hey, just ignore me.

"House prices are going to skyrocket !!!"... spruikers gotta spruik, right?

Edit: Sorry. Should have been 12k per year. See https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116242/new-home-construction-auckla…

by danicriss | 12th Dec 23, 2:08pm 1702343327

And don't forget to factor in that Auckland is building 12,000 new dwellings per month

I thought you added an extra zero by mistake, but the comma shows it's intentional

Unsure if you mean that every given moment there are 12,000 new dwellings in the process of being built. If you mean that 12,000 are being completed per month that's completely wrong - that's closer to the annual figure

by rastus1 | 12th Dec 23, 2:19pm 1702343983

..and don't forget the new immigrants are on NZ wages - which are insufficient to purchase a NZ hovel.

I expect many will put up with a garage to live in, send the cash home and then head back themselves to live in the family home they have financed from NZ.

by GetFeeling | 12th Dec 23, 4:16pm 1702350990

1,200 doesn't seem right either as it understates what is being completed. That said, I don't disagree with the thrust of the comment.

by MikeM | 12th Dec 23, 6:05pm 1702357504

Consents are well down in Auckland just like the rest of the country. There's a lot needing to happen before building activity returns to anything reasonable. In the meantime, more building related businesses will go bust next year and we'll have a return to 20 people living in a garage like we had ten or so years ago.

The problem is, the government are so slow responding to demands for extra labour that they've implemented new immigration policy after the economy has began slide and we no longer need more workers. There seems to be no happy medium; it's one extreme or the other.

by K.W. | 12th Dec 23, 5:47pm 1702356476

I think you mean 1200 per month. Maybe less as previous Interest article states "That pushed the average back up to 1100 new homes a month"

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116701/new-figures-suggest-resident….

Barely a drop in the ocean when there are 130,000 people arriving. Unless you plan on them all living 10 to a house.

by DDSQL9822 | 12th Dec 23, 2:00pm 1702342829

Sounds like pent up demand for efficient workers is now getting satisfied. More competition in labor market will give struggling businesses better options. It should be a good offset for our aging population.

by JimboJones | 12th Dec 23, 1:55pm 1702342500

With everyone being paid less we may spend less money at struggling businesses

by Yvil | 12th Dec 23, 2:03pm 1702343029

This means that exorbitantly high rents have only one way to go; UP.

by danicriss | 12th Dec 23, 2:10pm 1702343438

Yes, we're fostering a rentier economy. Way to go!

by Colin Cameron | 12th Dec 23, 2:35pm 1702344902

And what will this do to the inflation numbers across the board. So as usual Joe average kiwi will get hit again.

by DDSQL9822 | 12th Dec 23, 2:56pm 1702346209

Well the average Joe will never stop complaining! The matter of fact remains that the poor fiscal and monetary decisions of recent past is now coming to haunt us which is further fueld by a strong USD. Immigration as a singular factor is likely to remain statistically insignificant on consumables with limited impact on housing inflation.

by Eschaton | 12th Dec 23, 3:19pm 1702347541

What in the world!

by Small Kev | 12th Dec 23, 3:42pm 1702348964

This country needs more people.

by tis i | 12th Dec 23, 6:03pm 1702357407

No it doesn’t

by 21Trillion | 13th Dec 23, 10:32am 1702416727

So let's focus on why born kiwis aren't staying and those who stay aren't having kids.

I have a hunch, just a hunch, it could be property, the lack of stability because of property.

Importing immigrants just pushes this problem deeper.

by Hummy | 12th Dec 23, 9:06pm 1702368373

and labour was so against immigration when national was in government.

by sadr001 | 13th Dec 23, 10:50am 1702417841

The mix of those leaving (Doctors & nurses) vs those arriving (lower skilled) is a worry. I don’t think it is migration settings that is causing it so much as the relative value of those professions within NZ and overseas. Our Doctors and Nurses are worth about 8x an Aussie bus driver’s pay in Aus but only 2-3x a kiwi bus driver’s pay whilst in NZ. This means we value lower skilled professions more (thus encouraging them to come here) and higher skilled professions less (sending them overseas)

by pacifica | 14th Dec 23, 2:34am 1702474471

Be very afraid of the aged care sector. There is a reason why our HDC is so useless and ineffectual and why most the staff leave because they cannot live on minimum wage long term.

by Colonial Viper | 14th Dec 23, 2:44pm 1702518240

Health care assistants i.e. not even nurses, in the aged care sector earn $50K to $65K per annum depending on their certification.