Yen
Commodity and Asia-pacific currencies underperform; NZD, AUD, CAD, Asia Dollar index fall to year, or multi-year, lows. US retail sales data conveying robust consumer spending
18th Dec 24, 7:47am
Commodity and Asia-pacific currencies underperform; NZD, AUD, CAD, Asia Dollar index fall to year, or multi-year, lows. US retail sales data conveying robust consumer spending
PMI data show rising momentum across the services sector in Europe, with the US continuing to outperform. US Treasury yields near session highs after the data; 10-year rate at 4.41%; US equities stronger
17th Dec 24, 7:55am
PMI data show rising momentum across the services sector in Europe, with the US continuing to outperform. US Treasury yields near session highs after the data; 10-year rate at 4.41%; US equities stronger
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
16th Dec 24, 8:25am
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
The selloff in US treasuries continued. US dollar stable overall. Soft tone for Asian equities after Chinese policy makers failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus. Chinese 10-year bonds reach a record low
16th Dec 24, 7:24am
The selloff in US treasuries continued. US dollar stable overall. Soft tone for Asian equities after Chinese policy makers failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus. Chinese 10-year bonds reach a record low
US PPI data higher than expected but friendly undertones. ECB cuts policy rate by 25bps, but not as dovish as expected. Stronger Australian employment report hoses down rate cut expectations
13th Dec 24, 7:53am
US PPI data higher than expected but friendly undertones. ECB cuts policy rate by 25bps, but not as dovish as expected. Stronger Australian employment report hoses down rate cut expectations
US CPI data matched expectations clearing the way for a 25bp rate cut by the Fed next week. Canada cut rates by -50 bps. NZD hit on talk about China yuan policy
12th Dec 24, 7:41am
US CPI data matched expectations clearing the way for a 25bp rate cut by the Fed next week. Canada cut rates by -50 bps. NZD hit on talk about China yuan policy
RBA makes a dovish pivot after recent softer data; market brings forward path of easier policy, driving down Australian rates and the AUD
11th Dec 24, 8:04am
RBA makes a dovish pivot after recent softer data; market brings forward path of easier policy, driving down Australian rates and the AUD
China's Politburo shifts from a "prudent" to a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance. The announcement triggered a turnaround in sentiment, with a stronger yuan seeing the NZD and AUD bounce-back
10th Dec 24, 7:48am
China's Politburo shifts from a "prudent" to a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance. The announcement triggered a turnaround in sentiment, with a stronger yuan seeing the NZD and AUD bounce-back
Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
9th Dec 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
US non-farm payrolls matched consensus but a rise in the jobless rate raised expectations for a 25bp Fed rate cut later this month. Treasury yields declined led by the front end while US equities edged higher
9th Dec 24, 7:34am
US non-farm payrolls matched consensus but a rise in the jobless rate raised expectations for a 25bp Fed rate cut later this month. Treasury yields declined led by the front end while US equities edged higher
Markets in holding pattern ahead of the US employment report. Bitcoin blasts up through USD100,000. No adverse reaction to French political crisis. OPEC+ pushes back plans to lift production
6th Dec 24, 7:49am
Markets in holding pattern ahead of the US employment report. Bitcoin blasts up through USD100,000. No adverse reaction to French political crisis. OPEC+ pushes back plans to lift production
US services ISM fell sharply contributing to lower treasury yields and a softer dollar. The Korean won recovered after martial law order lifted. Weaker than expected Australian GDP weighed on the AUD
5th Dec 24, 7:42am
US services ISM fell sharply contributing to lower treasury yields and a softer dollar. The Korean won recovered after martial law order lifted. Weaker than expected Australian GDP weighed on the AUD
Political crisis in Korea, but little spillover. Chinese yuan falls to a fresh low for the year. Fed speakers suggest December meeting live, but dependent on jobs report
4th Dec 24, 7:49am
Political crisis in Korea, but little spillover. Chinese yuan falls to a fresh low for the year. Fed speakers suggest December meeting live, but dependent on jobs report
US economic data continues to positively surprise, with gains in PMI indicators. French political crisis helps the USD, but JPY is the strongest of the majors
3rd Dec 24, 7:39am
US economic data continues to positively surprise, with gains in PMI indicators. French political crisis helps the USD, but JPY is the strongest of the majors
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
2nd Dec 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
Global asset markets ended November on a positive note with the S&P reaching a fresh record high and US treasuries rallying. Investors have made record inflows to US equities over the past four weeks
2nd Dec 24, 7:20am
Global asset markets ended November on a positive note with the S&P reaching a fresh record high and US treasuries rallying. Investors have made record inflows to US equities over the past four weeks
AUD supported after RBA reiterates inflation still too high. NZD steady. RBNZ MPC members rolled out in post MPS interviews. Lower NZ rates follow global moves
29th Nov 24, 7:40am
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AUD supported after RBA reiterates inflation still too high. NZD steady. RBNZ MPC members rolled out in post MPS interviews. Lower NZ rates follow global moves
Monthly rebalancing flows forced the US dollar index down -1% with economic data matching expectations. The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds reached the highest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2012
28th Nov 24, 7:47am
Monthly rebalancing flows forced the US dollar index down -1% with economic data matching expectations. The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds reached the highest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2012
Markets digest President-elect Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of his term. US consumer confidence rose to the highest level since January
27th Nov 24, 7:49am
Markets digest President-elect Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of his term. US consumer confidence rose to the highest level since January
Bessent for US Treasury Secretary is taking the top of US interest rate risk post-election. Oil prices eased on prospect of a cease-fire agreement in Lebanon
26th Nov 24, 8:01am
Bessent for US Treasury Secretary is taking the top of US interest rate risk post-election. Oil prices eased on prospect of a cease-fire agreement in Lebanon
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
25th Nov 24, 8:46am
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Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies while supporting the USD
25th Nov 24, 7:21am
Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies while supporting the USD
US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight. Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle
22nd Nov 24, 7:49am
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US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight. Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle
US equities weaker, awaiting Nvidia's results. UST benchmark yields ignore rising Ukraine tensions
21st Nov 24, 7:40am
US equities weaker, awaiting Nvidia's results. UST benchmark yields ignore rising Ukraine tensions
Risk-off & volatility were generated by geopolitical factors, but they quickly settled. US equities firmed, UST yields softened. Commodity currencies rose
20th Nov 24, 7:43am
Risk-off & volatility were generated by geopolitical factors, but they quickly settled. US equities firmed, UST yields softened. Commodity currencies rose