OCR
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
27th Jun 24, 7:45am
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
ASB economists expect 'a considerably more modest inflation impact in NZ' than during the pandemic spike in shipping costs, but say the latest rise 'will further crimp NZ and global household demand'
26th Jun 24, 11:49am
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ASB economists expect 'a considerably more modest inflation impact in NZ' than during the pandemic spike in shipping costs, but say the latest rise 'will further crimp NZ and global household demand'
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
26th Jun 24, 7:43am
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months
25th Jun 24, 10:23am
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Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months
The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker. Oil prices continue to push higher
25th Jun 24, 7:33am
The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker. Oil prices continue to push higher
Softer than expected PMI data across Europe contributed to a fall in German bund yields. In contrast, US PMI data was relatively robust with the composite index remaining near two-year highs. The US dollar was broadly stronger
24th Jun 24, 7:25am
Softer than expected PMI data across Europe contributed to a fall in German bund yields. In contrast, US PMI data was relatively robust with the composite index remaining near two-year highs. The US dollar was broadly stronger
There has been plenty of news to digest but market movements have been well-contained. The BoE opened the door for a first rate cut this cycle in August while the Swiss National Bank cut rates again
21st Jun 24, 7:38am
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There has been plenty of news to digest but market movements have been well-contained. The BoE opened the door for a first rate cut this cycle in August while the Swiss National Bank cut rates again
New Zealand’s inflation was more driven by product and labour shortages than other countries were, RBNZ says
20th Jun 24, 8:30am
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New Zealand’s inflation was more driven by product and labour shortages than other countries were, RBNZ says
Markets confined to narrow ranges with the mid-week US public holiday impacting activity. Japan considering issuing bonds with shorter maturities as the Bank of Japan reduces its JGB purchases
20th Jun 24, 7:48am
Markets confined to narrow ranges with the mid-week US public holiday impacting activity. Japan considering issuing bonds with shorter maturities as the Bank of Japan reduces its JGB purchases
[updated]
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
19th Jun 24, 9:49am
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
A weaker than expected US retail sales report supported US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year rate down to as low as 4.20% and pushed down the USD, reversing earlier strength. The AUD has outperformed after a more hawkish than expected RBA update
19th Jun 24, 7:48am
A weaker than expected US retail sales report supported US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year rate down to as low as 4.20% and pushed down the USD, reversing earlier strength. The AUD has outperformed after a more hawkish than expected RBA update
US equities have continued their record-breaking run while, after last week’s strong rally, US Treasury yields are modestly higher. European markets have settled after last week’s selloff, with French assets recovering
18th Jun 24, 7:33am
US equities have continued their record-breaking run while, after last week’s strong rally, US Treasury yields are modestly higher. European markets have settled after last week’s selloff, with French assets recovering
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. US consumer confidence weaker than expected. Global bond yields moved lower
17th Jun 24, 7:25am
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. US consumer confidence weaker than expected. Global bond yields moved lower
Much softer than expected US PPI data and a further increase in jobless claims supported US Treasuries, taking yields down 7-8bps across the curve. Concerns around France remain the focus. Some flight-to-safety evident
14th Jun 24, 7:52am
Much softer than expected US PPI data and a further increase in jobless claims supported US Treasuries, taking yields down 7-8bps across the curve. Concerns around France remain the focus. Some flight-to-safety evident
The US Fed left rates on hold for a seventh straight meeting as was unanimously expected. Officials signaled they expect to cut rates by 25bps this year, down from 75bps at the March FOMC. US CPI data for May was softer than expected
13th Jun 24, 7:47am
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The US Fed left rates on hold for a seventh straight meeting as was unanimously expected. Officials signaled they expect to cut rates by 25bps this year, down from 75bps at the March FOMC. US CPI data for May was softer than expected
There has been more fallout from French President Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections, with a flight to quality within European assets. US rates have pushed lower ahead of the key US CPI report
12th Jun 24, 7:56am
There has been more fallout from French President Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections, with a flight to quality within European assets. US rates have pushed lower ahead of the key US CPI report
Latest spending data from the country's biggest bank highlights the extent to which Kiwis have put their wallets away as rising costs and higher interest rates have taken their toll
11th Jun 24, 11:36am
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Latest spending data from the country's biggest bank highlights the extent to which Kiwis have put their wallets away as rising costs and higher interest rates have taken their toll
The outcome of European Parliament elections has been the key driver of markets. Elsewhere, markets holding until US CPI data and the Fed’s policy updates later in the week
11th Jun 24, 7:44am
The outcome of European Parliament elections has been the key driver of markets. Elsewhere, markets holding until US CPI data and the Fed’s policy updates later in the week
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth pushed global bond yields sharply higher. The USD made broad gains. Markets trimmed expectations for Fed easing, pushing back a cut to December
10th Jun 24, 7:22am
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth pushed global bond yields sharply higher. The USD made broad gains. Markets trimmed expectations for Fed easing, pushing back a cut to December
[updated]
ANZ economists say 'meaningful progress' in inflation war around the corner, meaning the OCR could be cut earlier than they previously forecast
7th Jun 24, 11:17am
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ANZ economists say 'meaningful progress' in inflation war around the corner, meaning the OCR could be cut earlier than they previously forecast
Net market movements have been mostly small, with signs of consolidation across equities, bonds and currencies. European rates are slightly higher after the ECB’s “hawkish cut” and US Treasury yields are little changed
7th Jun 24, 7:47am
Net market movements have been mostly small, with signs of consolidation across equities, bonds and currencies. European rates are slightly higher after the ECB’s “hawkish cut” and US Treasury yields are little changed
Buoyant investor risk sentiment underpinned global equities with the S&P up nearly 1% and retesting its record high. US service ISM rebounds strongly from contractionary levels in April. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps
6th Jun 24, 7:59am
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Buoyant investor risk sentiment underpinned global equities with the S&P up nearly 1% and retesting its record high. US service ISM rebounds strongly from contractionary levels in April. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps
US Treasury yields fell for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising emerging market election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data
5th Jun 24, 7:36am
US Treasury yields fell for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising emerging market election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data
Weaker than expected US manufacturing ISM data contributed to a rally in US treasuries and a weaker US dollar. Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced plans to phase out its production cutbacks
4th Jun 24, 7:32am
Weaker than expected US manufacturing ISM data contributed to a rally in US treasuries and a weaker US dollar. Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced plans to phase out its production cutbacks
US Treasury yields reversed course after their rise this week, encouraged by weaker data releases overnight. The 10-year rate is down 7bps to 4.54% with a slightly flatter curve
31st May 24, 7:43am
US Treasury yields reversed course after their rise this week, encouraged by weaker data releases overnight. The 10-year rate is down 7bps to 4.54% with a slightly flatter curve