OCR
[updated]
After the welcome 2023 run-up, term deposit rates eased back in 2024. We provide some perspective and look ahead to 2025
20th Dec 24, 10:01am
29
After the welcome 2023 run-up, term deposit rates eased back in 2024. We provide some perspective and look ahead to 2025
Modest recovery in US equities after their slump following the Fed's hawkish rate cut. US 10-year rate rises to its highest level since the end of May; curve steepens
20th Dec 24, 7:59am
1
Modest recovery in US equities after their slump following the Fed's hawkish rate cut. US 10-year rate rises to its highest level since the end of May; curve steepens
Global asset markets in a holding pattern ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this morning. US dollar generally firm against G10 currencies
19th Dec 24, 7:24am
Global asset markets in a holding pattern ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this morning. US dollar generally firm against G10 currencies
Commodity and Asia-pacific currencies underperform; NZD, AUD, CAD, Asia Dollar index fall to year, or multi-year, lows. US retail sales data conveying robust consumer spending
18th Dec 24, 7:47am
Commodity and Asia-pacific currencies underperform; NZD, AUD, CAD, Asia Dollar index fall to year, or multi-year, lows. US retail sales data conveying robust consumer spending
PMI data show rising momentum across the services sector in Europe, with the US continuing to outperform. US Treasury yields near session highs after the data; 10-year rate at 4.41%; US equities stronger
17th Dec 24, 7:55am
PMI data show rising momentum across the services sector in Europe, with the US continuing to outperform. US Treasury yields near session highs after the data; 10-year rate at 4.41%; US equities stronger
The selloff in US treasuries continued. US dollar stable overall. Soft tone for Asian equities after Chinese policy makers failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus. Chinese 10-year bonds reach a record low
16th Dec 24, 7:24am
The selloff in US treasuries continued. US dollar stable overall. Soft tone for Asian equities after Chinese policy makers failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus. Chinese 10-year bonds reach a record low
US PPI data higher than expected but friendly undertones. ECB cuts policy rate by 25bps, but not as dovish as expected. Stronger Australian employment report hoses down rate cut expectations
13th Dec 24, 7:53am
US PPI data higher than expected but friendly undertones. ECB cuts policy rate by 25bps, but not as dovish as expected. Stronger Australian employment report hoses down rate cut expectations
US CPI data matched expectations clearing the way for a 25bp rate cut by the Fed next week. Canada cut rates by -50 bps. NZD hit on talk about China yuan policy
12th Dec 24, 7:41am
US CPI data matched expectations clearing the way for a 25bp rate cut by the Fed next week. Canada cut rates by -50 bps. NZD hit on talk about China yuan policy
RBA makes a dovish pivot after recent softer data; market brings forward path of easier policy, driving down Australian rates and the AUD
11th Dec 24, 8:04am
RBA makes a dovish pivot after recent softer data; market brings forward path of easier policy, driving down Australian rates and the AUD
China's Politburo shifts from a "prudent" to a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance. The announcement triggered a turnaround in sentiment, with a stronger yuan seeing the NZD and AUD bounce-back
10th Dec 24, 7:48am
China's Politburo shifts from a "prudent" to a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance. The announcement triggered a turnaround in sentiment, with a stronger yuan seeing the NZD and AUD bounce-back
Kiwibank joins BNZ with some home loan rate cuts and hikes, matched with term deposit rate cuts (but no hikes)
9th Dec 24, 10:54am
14
Kiwibank joins BNZ with some home loan rate cuts and hikes, matched with term deposit rate cuts (but no hikes)
US non-farm payrolls matched consensus but a rise in the jobless rate raised expectations for a 25bp Fed rate cut later this month. Treasury yields declined led by the front end while US equities edged higher
9th Dec 24, 7:34am
US non-farm payrolls matched consensus but a rise in the jobless rate raised expectations for a 25bp Fed rate cut later this month. Treasury yields declined led by the front end while US equities edged higher
Markets in holding pattern ahead of the US employment report. Bitcoin blasts up through USD100,000. No adverse reaction to French political crisis. OPEC+ pushes back plans to lift production
6th Dec 24, 7:49am
Markets in holding pattern ahead of the US employment report. Bitcoin blasts up through USD100,000. No adverse reaction to French political crisis. OPEC+ pushes back plans to lift production
US services ISM fell sharply contributing to lower treasury yields and a softer dollar. The Korean won recovered after martial law order lifted. Weaker than expected Australian GDP weighed on the AUD
5th Dec 24, 7:42am
US services ISM fell sharply contributing to lower treasury yields and a softer dollar. The Korean won recovered after martial law order lifted. Weaker than expected Australian GDP weighed on the AUD
Online mortgage bank Heartland pushes all its fixed home loan rates down to the lowest level of any bank
4th Dec 24, 10:02am
12
Online mortgage bank Heartland pushes all its fixed home loan rates down to the lowest level of any bank
Political crisis in Korea, but little spillover. Chinese yuan falls to a fresh low for the year. Fed speakers suggest December meeting live, but dependent on jobs report
4th Dec 24, 7:49am
Political crisis in Korea, but little spillover. Chinese yuan falls to a fresh low for the year. Fed speakers suggest December meeting live, but dependent on jobs report
Although BNZ's latest home loan rate moves are not to especially unique levels, their raising of rates at the long end signal a different shape in the rate curves
3rd Dec 24, 8:44am
15
Although BNZ's latest home loan rate moves are not to especially unique levels, their raising of rates at the long end signal a different shape in the rate curves
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr is forecasting that the OCR will be cut to 3% next year and says rates were too high for too long
3rd Dec 24, 8:25am
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Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr is forecasting that the OCR will be cut to 3% next year and says rates were too high for too long
US economic data continues to positively surprise, with gains in PMI indicators. French political crisis helps the USD, but JPY is the strongest of the majors
3rd Dec 24, 7:39am
US economic data continues to positively surprise, with gains in PMI indicators. French political crisis helps the USD, but JPY is the strongest of the majors
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold sees the possibility the Reserve Bank may start to raise the Official Cash Rate again as soon as 2026
2nd Dec 24, 11:49am
15
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold sees the possibility the Reserve Bank may start to raise the Official Cash Rate again as soon as 2026
ASB cuts fixed mortgage rates, and term deposit rates, signaling a final December push for precious housing sale transactions
2nd Dec 24, 7:30am
29
ASB cuts fixed mortgage rates, and term deposit rates, signaling a final December push for precious housing sale transactions
Global asset markets ended November on a positive note with the S&P reaching a fresh record high and US treasuries rallying. Investors have made record inflows to US equities over the past four weeks
2nd Dec 24, 7:20am
Global asset markets ended November on a positive note with the S&P reaching a fresh record high and US treasuries rallying. Investors have made record inflows to US equities over the past four weeks
AUD supported after RBA reiterates inflation still too high. NZD steady. RBNZ MPC members rolled out in post MPS interviews. Lower NZ rates follow global moves
29th Nov 24, 7:40am
1
AUD supported after RBA reiterates inflation still too high. NZD steady. RBNZ MPC members rolled out in post MPS interviews. Lower NZ rates follow global moves
Monthly rebalancing flows forced the US dollar index down -1% with economic data matching expectations. The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds reached the highest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2012
28th Nov 24, 7:47am
Monthly rebalancing flows forced the US dollar index down -1% with economic data matching expectations. The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds reached the highest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2012
The Reserve Bank says it will likely cut the Official Cash Rate to 3.75% in February, if economic data plays out as expected
28th Nov 24, 5:00am
67
The Reserve Bank says it will likely cut the Official Cash Rate to 3.75% in February, if economic data plays out as expected