OCR
Stronger than expected US GDP data supported the soft-landing narrative, and US equities have consolidated after yesterday's tumble. Currency markets have remained erratic
26th Jul 24, 7:54am
Stronger than expected US GDP data supported the soft-landing narrative, and US equities have consolidated after yesterday's tumble. Currency markets have remained erratic
US stocks tumble, led by the mega cap and IT stocks. However, it doesn’t seem like a classic risk-off event, with the UST 10yr rate up and the curve steepened significantly. The Bank of Canada cuts again, by 25bps. The yen continues to outperform
25th Jul 24, 7:43am
2
US stocks tumble, led by the mega cap and IT stocks. However, it doesn’t seem like a classic risk-off event, with the UST 10yr rate up and the curve steepened significantly. The Bank of Canada cuts again, by 25bps. The yen continues to outperform
The RBNZ hasn't reduced interest rates with domestic inflation this high in the past 20 years and is likely to delay until November, according to UBS analysis
24th Jul 24, 3:48pm
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The RBNZ hasn't reduced interest rates with domestic inflation this high in the past 20 years and is likely to delay until November, according to UBS analysis
US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are slightly lower. Of note is that lower commodity prices continue to drag down the NZD and AUD, while the yen remains flavour of the week
24th Jul 24, 7:43am
US equities are flat and US Treasury yields are slightly lower. Of note is that lower commodity prices continue to drag down the NZD and AUD, while the yen remains flavour of the week
US equities have rebounded, recovering from last week’s hiccup, driven by the tech sector. Market reaction to Biden’s withdrawal from the Presidential race has been muted, with only small changes in the USD and Treasury yields
23rd Jul 24, 7:40am
US equities have rebounded, recovering from last week’s hiccup, driven by the tech sector. Market reaction to Biden’s withdrawal from the Presidential race has been muted, with only small changes in the USD and Treasury yields
'We are hitting the point where the RBNZ’s worries should switch from the risks from cutting the OCR too soon to the risks of keeping it too high for too long'
22nd Jul 24, 2:50pm
28
'We are hitting the point where the RBNZ’s worries should switch from the risks from cutting the OCR too soon to the risks of keeping it too high for too long'
Financial markets ended last week on a soft note, with weaker global equity markets, higher global rates and lower commodity prices. Volumes were light as trading activity was restricted by the global IT outage
22nd Jul 24, 7:33am
Financial markets ended last week on a soft note, with weaker global equity markets, higher global rates and lower commodity prices. Volumes were light as trading activity was restricted by the global IT outage
As we await the start of cuts to the Official Cash Rate, David Hargreaves questions what damage may have been done by the recent heavy-handed and sledgehammer-like interest rate hiking cycle
21st Jul 24, 6:00am
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As we await the start of cuts to the Official Cash Rate, David Hargreaves questions what damage may have been done by the recent heavy-handed and sledgehammer-like interest rate hiking cycle
Global equity markets declined for the second consecutive session. Equities are beginning to price in more political risk. The US dollar gained against G10 currencies
19th Jul 24, 7:46am
Global equity markets declined for the second consecutive session. Equities are beginning to price in more political risk. The US dollar gained against G10 currencies
Three quarters of annual inflation was due to cost pressures outside the control of the RBNZ’s monetary policy
18th Jul 24, 12:47pm
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Three quarters of annual inflation was due to cost pressures outside the control of the RBNZ’s monetary policy
Key Fed officials suggest greater confidence in the disinflationary trend. Technology stocks led declines in global equities amid concerns about tighter restrictions from the US government on exports to China
18th Jul 24, 7:33am
Key Fed officials suggest greater confidence in the disinflationary trend. Technology stocks led declines in global equities amid concerns about tighter restrictions from the US government on exports to China
The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
18th Jul 24, 5:00am
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The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
David Hargreaves says still 'sticky' domestic inflation may convince the Reserve Bank to sit tight on the Official Cash Rate at least for now
17th Jul 24, 11:22am
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David Hargreaves says still 'sticky' domestic inflation may convince the Reserve Bank to sit tight on the Official Cash Rate at least for now
The US Treasury yield curve flattened and currency markets are little changed. Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce. US equities advanced following unexpectedly strong retail sales data
17th Jul 24, 7:51am
The US Treasury yield curve flattened and currency markets are little changed. Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce. US equities advanced following unexpectedly strong retail sales data
Powell looks to rate cuts, but without saying when. The US treasury curve has continued to steepen. 30-year yields are above 2-year yields for the first time since November. China’s Q2 GDP data was weaker than expected
16th Jul 24, 8:07am
Powell looks to rate cuts, but without saying when. The US treasury curve has continued to steepen. 30-year yields are above 2-year yields for the first time since November. China’s Q2 GDP data was weaker than expected
Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual growth has fallen below 1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling
15th Jul 24, 2:16pm
13
Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual growth has fallen below 1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling
Markets looked past strong US PPI data. UST 10-yr yields dipped below 4.2% a level which has contained the downside in recent months. The yield curve continued to steepen. The US dollar remained under pressure particularly against the yen
15th Jul 24, 7:31am
Markets looked past strong US PPI data. UST 10-yr yields dipped below 4.2% a level which has contained the downside in recent months. The yield curve continued to steepen. The US dollar remained under pressure particularly against the yen
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the Reserve Bank’s dovish turn would have been based on fresh forecasts which show a much weak economy than in May
14th Jul 24, 9:01am
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ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the Reserve Bank’s dovish turn would have been based on fresh forecasts which show a much weak economy than in May
David Hargreaves assesses the prospects for the June quarter inflation figures due to be released this coming Wednesday and which will be pivotal for the Reserve Bank in deciding whether to cut the Official Cash Rate sooner or later
14th Jul 24, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves assesses the prospects for the June quarter inflation figures due to be released this coming Wednesday and which will be pivotal for the Reserve Bank in deciding whether to cut the Official Cash Rate sooner or later
Another benign US CPI result drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields. USD weakness wasn’t sustained however, except for a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected
12th Jul 24, 7:53am
Another benign US CPI result drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields. USD weakness wasn’t sustained however, except for a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P trading above 5,600. Markets were largely subdued lacking catalysts. Investors are looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening
11th Jul 24, 7:43am
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P trading above 5,600. Markets were largely subdued lacking catalysts. Investors are looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening
Powell’s testimony largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle in financial markets. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened
10th Jul 24, 7:49am
2
Powell’s testimony largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle in financial markets. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened
Market movements well-contained, with little impact from the shock French election result. Key equity markets show small changes, the US 10-year rate is down slightly, the NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker
9th Jul 24, 7:39am
Market movements well-contained, with little impact from the shock French election result. Key equity markets show small changes, the US 10-year rate is down slightly, the NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
8th Jul 24, 1:45pm
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Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
Weaker than expected US labour market data saw investors bring forward expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition has unexpectedly won the French election raising concerns about the fiscal backdrop
8th Jul 24, 7:26am
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Weaker than expected US labour market data saw investors bring forward expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition has unexpectedly won the French election raising concerns about the fiscal backdrop