OCR
The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
18th Jul 24, 5:00am
The drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.3% sees economists adopt a near-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will begin interest rate cuts in November. But an earlier start is seen as possible
David Hargreaves says still 'sticky' domestic inflation may convince the Reserve Bank to sit tight on the Official Cash Rate at least for now
17th Jul 24, 11:22am
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David Hargreaves says still 'sticky' domestic inflation may convince the Reserve Bank to sit tight on the Official Cash Rate at least for now
The US Treasury yield curve flattened and currency markets are little changed. Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce. US equities advanced following unexpectedly strong retail sales data
17th Jul 24, 7:51am
The US Treasury yield curve flattened and currency markets are little changed. Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce. US equities advanced following unexpectedly strong retail sales data
Powell looks to rate cuts, but without saying when. The US treasury curve has continued to steepen. 30-year yields are above 2-year yields for the first time since November. China’s Q2 GDP data was weaker than expected
16th Jul 24, 8:07am
Powell looks to rate cuts, but without saying when. The US treasury curve has continued to steepen. 30-year yields are above 2-year yields for the first time since November. China’s Q2 GDP data was weaker than expected
Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual growth has fallen below 1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling
15th Jul 24, 2:16pm
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Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual growth has fallen below 1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling
Markets looked past strong US PPI data. UST 10-yr yields dipped below 4.2% a level which has contained the downside in recent months. The yield curve continued to steepen. The US dollar remained under pressure particularly against the yen
15th Jul 24, 7:31am
Markets looked past strong US PPI data. UST 10-yr yields dipped below 4.2% a level which has contained the downside in recent months. The yield curve continued to steepen. The US dollar remained under pressure particularly against the yen
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the Reserve Bank’s dovish turn would have been based on fresh forecasts which show a much weak economy than in May
14th Jul 24, 9:01am
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ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the Reserve Bank’s dovish turn would have been based on fresh forecasts which show a much weak economy than in May
David Hargreaves assesses the prospects for the June quarter inflation figures due to be released this coming Wednesday and which will be pivotal for the Reserve Bank in deciding whether to cut the Official Cash Rate sooner or later
14th Jul 24, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves assesses the prospects for the June quarter inflation figures due to be released this coming Wednesday and which will be pivotal for the Reserve Bank in deciding whether to cut the Official Cash Rate sooner or later
Another benign US CPI result drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields. USD weakness wasn’t sustained however, except for a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected
12th Jul 24, 7:53am
Another benign US CPI result drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields. USD weakness wasn’t sustained however, except for a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P trading above 5,600. Markets were largely subdued lacking catalysts. Investors are looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening
11th Jul 24, 7:43am
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P trading above 5,600. Markets were largely subdued lacking catalysts. Investors are looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening
Powell’s testimony largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle in financial markets. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened
10th Jul 24, 7:49am
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Powell’s testimony largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle in financial markets. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened
Market movements well-contained, with little impact from the shock French election result. Key equity markets show small changes, the US 10-year rate is down slightly, the NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker
9th Jul 24, 7:39am
Market movements well-contained, with little impact from the shock French election result. Key equity markets show small changes, the US 10-year rate is down slightly, the NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
8th Jul 24, 1:45pm
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Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
Weaker than expected US labour market data saw investors bring forward expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition has unexpectedly won the French election raising concerns about the fiscal backdrop
8th Jul 24, 7:26am
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Weaker than expected US labour market data saw investors bring forward expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition has unexpectedly won the French election raising concerns about the fiscal backdrop
The Reserve Bank's likely to cheerfully ignore the growing clamour for some public indication of when the Official Cash Rate will be cut when it has its next review of the OCR in the coming week
7th Jul 24, 6:30am
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The Reserve Bank's likely to cheerfully ignore the growing clamour for some public indication of when the Official Cash Rate will be cut when it has its next review of the OCR in the coming week
Global markets subdued in shadow of US holiday. Polling that projects Marine Le Pen’s failure supported sentiment towards European assets. Market focus turns to upcoming key US labour market data
5th Jul 24, 7:37am
Global markets subdued in shadow of US holiday. Polling that projects Marine Le Pen’s failure supported sentiment towards European assets. Market focus turns to upcoming key US labour market data
ASB brings Official Cash Rate cut forecast forward three months and warns that the risk of damage to the economy is growing
4th Jul 24, 11:31am
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ASB brings Official Cash Rate cut forecast forward three months and warns that the risk of damage to the economy is growing
A series of weaker than expected economic prints, headlined by services ISM which slumped to a 4-year low, strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts this year. US treasury yields fell and the S&P closed at a fresh record high
4th Jul 24, 7:44am
A series of weaker than expected economic prints, headlined by services ISM which slumped to a 4-year low, strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts this year. US treasury yields fell and the S&P closed at a fresh record high
Fed Chair Powell sees recent fall in the PCE ‘really good progress’ but still needs to see more progress. US job openings unexpectedly rise. European CPI slowed
3rd Jul 24, 7:39am
Fed Chair Powell sees recent fall in the PCE ‘really good progress’ but still needs to see more progress. US job openings unexpectedly rise. European CPI slowed
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
2nd Jul 24, 10:55am
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BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
US dollar generally firmer amid higher UST yields. China 10-year bond yields fell to a record low. Risk premia on European assets have reduced on lower chance of far-right victory in France
2nd Jul 24, 7:41am
US dollar generally firmer amid higher UST yields. China 10-year bond yields fell to a record low. Risk premia on European assets have reduced on lower chance of far-right victory in France
Investors cautious ahead of France’s elections. The spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to the highest level since 2012. The US Fed's preferred gauge of inflation decelerated in May. UST yields ended higher
1st Jul 24, 7:22am
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Investors cautious ahead of France’s elections. The spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to the highest level since 2012. The US Fed's preferred gauge of inflation decelerated in May. UST yields ended higher
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
27th Jun 24, 7:45am
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
ASB economists expect 'a considerably more modest inflation impact in NZ' than during the pandemic spike in shipping costs, but say the latest rise 'will further crimp NZ and global household demand'
26th Jun 24, 11:49am
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ASB economists expect 'a considerably more modest inflation impact in NZ' than during the pandemic spike in shipping costs, but say the latest rise 'will further crimp NZ and global household demand'
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
26th Jun 24, 7:43am
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD