ECB
The financial market has increased expectations for a US Fed easing. The 2-year treasury yields dipped below 4% for the first time since October, declining after soft consumption data
3rd Mar 25, 7:24am
The financial market has increased expectations for a US Fed easing. The 2-year treasury yields dipped below 4% for the first time since October, declining after soft consumption data
Trump to push ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% tariff to be imposed on Chinese imports. USD broadly stronger on that news; weaker yuan spills over into the NZD and AUD
28th Feb 25, 7:54am
Trump to push ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% tariff to be imposed on Chinese imports. USD broadly stronger on that news; weaker yuan spills over into the NZD and AUD
Trump pushed out the start date for Mexico and Canada tariffs to 2 April, says tariffs on products from the EU like autos and "other things" will be 25%. US equities recover after recent fall. US 10-year Treasury rate pushes down to a fresh 2025 low
27th Feb 25, 7:44am
Trump pushed out the start date for Mexico and Canada tariffs to 2 April, says tariffs on products from the EU like autos and "other things" will be 25%. US equities recover after recent fall. US 10-year Treasury rate pushes down to a fresh 2025 low
US equities down for a fourth consecutive day, US Treasury yields down for a fifth day, with the 10-year rate down 10bps and probing fresh 2025 lows, all on increased policy uncertainty. Safe haven currencies higher, commodity currencies underperform
26th Feb 25, 7:53am
US equities down for a fourth consecutive day, US Treasury yields down for a fifth day, with the 10-year rate down 10bps and probing fresh 2025 lows, all on increased policy uncertainty. Safe haven currencies higher, commodity currencies underperform
Initial gains for US equities fade after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index undershot expectations. 10-year treasury yields return to the bottom of the 2025 range at 4.39%
25th Feb 25, 7:38am
Initial gains for US equities fade after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index undershot expectations. 10-year treasury yields return to the bottom of the 2025 range at 4.39%
Weak US services PMI contributed to a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in US equities. US treasury yields tumble. Brent crude prices drop 3% to near US$74 per barrel
24th Feb 25, 7:30am
Weak US services PMI contributed to a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in US equities. US treasury yields tumble. Brent crude prices drop 3% to near US$74 per barrel
Equity markets are weaker, retreating from recent record highs. UST yields slip. USD broadly weaker. Commodity currencies get a boost on trade deal talk. JPY outperforms as JGB yields rise to fresh highs
21st Feb 25, 7:49am
Equity markets are weaker, retreating from recent record highs. UST yields slip. USD broadly weaker. Commodity currencies get a boost on trade deal talk. JPY outperforms as JGB yields rise to fresh highs
European equities retraced from record high after hawkish comments by an ECB official. European bond yields move higher. Trade tensions stay in focus. Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports
20th Feb 25, 7:46am
European equities retraced from record high after hawkish comments by an ECB official. European bond yields move higher. Trade tensions stay in focus. Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports
Weaker US homebuilder sentiment, an uplift in UK wage inflation, and an upward surprise in core Canadian CPI inflation. RBA kicks off easing cycle with 25bps cut. The cautious policy outlook was also not particularly surprising
19th Feb 25, 7:42am
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Weaker US homebuilder sentiment, an uplift in UK wage inflation, and an upward surprise in core Canadian CPI inflation. RBA kicks off easing cycle with 25bps cut. The cautious policy outlook was also not particularly surprising
European equities rise to a fresh record highs. President Xi meets with Chinese IT leaders, a strong signal of a turnaround from his crackdown on the sector. RBA widely expected to kick-start easing cycle later this afternoon
18th Feb 25, 7:19am
European equities rise to a fresh record highs. President Xi meets with Chinese IT leaders, a strong signal of a turnaround from his crackdown on the sector. RBA widely expected to kick-start easing cycle later this afternoon
US retail sales significantly weaker than expected. This data contributed to lower US Treasury yields and weighed on the US dollar. NZD/USD traded back above 57 USc and to its highest level since December
17th Feb 25, 7:22am
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US retail sales significantly weaker than expected. This data contributed to lower US Treasury yields and weighed on the US dollar. NZD/USD traded back above 57 USc and to its highest level since December
Ukraine war negotiation talk supports risk sentiment. Higher than expected US PPI data but weak components that feed into PCE deflator; US Treasuries rally, reversing some of previous day's move
14th Feb 25, 7:44am
Ukraine war negotiation talk supports risk sentiment. Higher than expected US PPI data but weak components that feed into PCE deflator; US Treasuries rally, reversing some of previous day's move
Much stronger US CPI data drive US rates up; just one Fed rate cut this year now priced in. Stronger USD post CPI reverse course. NZD recovers
13th Feb 25, 7:50am
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Much stronger US CPI data drive US rates up; just one Fed rate cut this year now priced in. Stronger USD post CPI reverse course. NZD recovers
Powell reiterates the Fed in no hurry to cut interest rates in his semi-annual Senate Testimony. Little impact on market pricing for Fed policy. EU says it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it
12th Feb 25, 7:55am
Powell reiterates the Fed in no hurry to cut interest rates in his semi-annual Senate Testimony. Little impact on market pricing for Fed policy. EU says it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it
Global equity markets advanced in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Powell’s Congress testimony. Gold prices hit a record high above US$2900 per troy ounce
11th Feb 25, 9:13am
Global equity markets advanced in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Powell’s Congress testimony. Gold prices hit a record high above US$2900 per troy ounce
Resilient US labour market data support the Fed's caution on further policy easing. US consumer inflation expectations rise to highest level since 2008. Fed easing expectations pared. US treasury yields higher supporting the USD
10th Feb 25, 7:32am
Resilient US labour market data support the Fed's caution on further policy easing. US consumer inflation expectations rise to highest level since 2008. Fed easing expectations pared. US treasury yields higher supporting the USD
BoE cuts policy rate by 25bps to 4.5%. US 10-year rate up modestly overnight but down from NZ close pre-Waitangi Day. Treasury Secretary Bessent targets lower 10-year rate; US ISM services survey underwhelms
7th Feb 25, 7:47am
BoE cuts policy rate by 25bps to 4.5%. US 10-year rate up modestly overnight but down from NZ close pre-Waitangi Day. Treasury Secretary Bessent targets lower 10-year rate; US ISM services survey underwhelms
Investor risk appetite has recovered after news of delayed tariff implementation on Mexico and Canada. China retaliated but the scope was limited. US job openings fell to a three-month low in December
5th Feb 25, 7:55am
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Investor risk appetite has recovered after news of delayed tariff implementation on Mexico and Canada. China retaliated but the scope was limited. US job openings fell to a three-month low in December
Large fallout from Trump tariffs pared back after delay for Mexico announced. Less reaction in the rates market due to offsetting forces; UST curves show mild flattening. NZ rates show notable fall
4th Feb 25, 7:44am
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Large fallout from Trump tariffs pared back after delay for Mexico announced. Less reaction in the rates market due to offsetting forces; UST curves show mild flattening. NZ rates show notable fall
Despite the whipsaw price action, absolute moves against the USD were modest for most G10 currencies
Volatile end to the trading week as confusion over US trade policy roiled markets. US dollar ended stronger. The S&P reversed initial gains to close lower
3rd Feb 25, 7:25am
Volatile end to the trading week as confusion over US trade policy roiled markets. US dollar ended stronger. The S&P reversed initial gains to close lower
US economy grew at a 2.3% in Q4 driven by strong consumer spending. Eurozone growth was flat in Q4. ECB cut rates and signalled more easing ahead. Gold prices reached an all time high
31st Jan 25, 7:45am
US economy grew at a 2.3% in Q4 driven by strong consumer spending. Eurozone growth was flat in Q4. ECB cut rates and signalled more easing ahead. Gold prices reached an all time high
Global asset markets in holding pattern ahead of the FOMC. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp. Australian Q4 CPI softer than expected increasing the chance for a RBA rate cut in February
30th Jan 25, 7:40am
Global asset markets in holding pattern ahead of the FOMC. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp. Australian Q4 CPI softer than expected increasing the chance for a RBA rate cut in February
US technology stocks stabilised after significant downgrade. Safe haven bid for US treasuries fades with yields modestly higher across the curve. USD consolidates after tariffs threat gains
29th Jan 25, 7:52am
US technology stocks stabilised after significant downgrade. Safe haven bid for US treasuries fades with yields modestly higher across the curve. USD consolidates after tariffs threat gains
Sharp falls in US tech stocks amid concerns about valuations. Risk off tone brings safe haven demand for US treasuries. Defensive currencies outperform. China’s manufacturing and service sector PMIs weaker than expected
28th Jan 25, 7:51am
Sharp falls in US tech stocks amid concerns about valuations. Risk off tone brings safe haven demand for US treasuries. Defensive currencies outperform. China’s manufacturing and service sector PMIs weaker than expected
Trump says he'd rather not increase tariffs on China, adding to the sense that tariffs aren't an immediate threat to the economy/market. USD extends losses for the week; Soft US PMI services index adds to the downdraft
27th Jan 25, 7:26am
Trump says he'd rather not increase tariffs on China, adding to the sense that tariffs aren't an immediate threat to the economy/market. USD extends losses for the week; Soft US PMI services index adds to the downdraft