Jeremy Couchman
Kiwibank economists are hoping the Reserve Bank can be deterred from its signalled 75 basis point Official Cash Rate hike and 'meet in the middle' with a 50 point rise
23rd Jan 23, 11:00am
62
Kiwibank economists are hoping the Reserve Bank can be deterred from its signalled 75 basis point Official Cash Rate hike and 'meet in the middle' with a 50 point rise
[updated]
REINZ says December's sales plummeted nationally to the lowest in years at 4,336; national median price slipped over 12% for the year. In Auckland the fall was 18%. In Wellington 20%. House prices now down around 15% from November 2021 peak
18th Jan 23, 9:00am
251
REINZ says December's sales plummeted nationally to the lowest in years at 4,336; national median price slipped over 12% for the year. In Auckland the fall was 18%. In Wellington 20%. House prices now down around 15% from November 2021 peak
[updated]
National's finance spokesperson scalds Government after long-running NZIER business survey records the weakest result in its history; ASB economists say economy has 'run into a brick wall'; BNZ economists see 'stagflation on steroids'
17th Jan 23, 10:23am
188
National's finance spokesperson scalds Government after long-running NZIER business survey records the weakest result in its history; ASB economists say economy has 'run into a brick wall'; BNZ economists see 'stagflation on steroids'
Kiwibank economists say the RBNZ is 'doggedly determined to deliver' OCR hikes and it is 'likely to be too much'; see bigger house price falls now, of 21%, taking prices back to 2020 levels
7th Dec 22, 8:08am
78
Kiwibank economists say the RBNZ is 'doggedly determined to deliver' OCR hikes and it is 'likely to be too much'; see bigger house price falls now, of 21%, taking prices back to 2020 levels
Kiwibank economists believe the interest rate hikes that have already been delivered will have a huge impact on households and discretionary income will evaporate for many mortgagees
28th Nov 22, 1:57pm
119
Kiwibank economists believe the interest rate hikes that have already been delivered will have a huge impact on households and discretionary income will evaporate for many mortgagees
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago
10th Oct 22, 11:50am
18
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago
Kiwibank economists believe that fixed mortgage rates have peaked
Kiwibank economists now see house prices falling 13% by the end of the year followed by a 'slow' recovery
24th Aug 22, 11:29am
77
Kiwibank economists now see house prices falling 13% by the end of the year followed by a 'slow' recovery
Latest labour market data showing 'severe capacity constraints and intensifying wage pressures' prompt change of view and perceived need for the Reserve Bank to do a little more against inflation
4th Aug 22, 9:46am
30
Latest labour market data showing 'severe capacity constraints and intensifying wage pressures' prompt change of view and perceived need for the Reserve Bank to do a little more against inflation
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the June quarter did see a rebound in consumer spending, but thanks to inflation, the growth in dollars spent is outpacing the volume of transactions
11th Jul 22, 10:57am
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the June quarter did see a rebound in consumer spending, but thanks to inflation, the growth in dollars spent is outpacing the volume of transactions
Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in forward economic activity indicators
4th Jul 22, 2:40pm
15
Kiwibank economists say the Reserve Bank may soften its tone around the outlook, acknowledging the waning strength in forward economic activity indicators
[updated]
The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
16th Jun 22, 10:54am
203
The economy shrank in the three months to March, contrary to the expectations of the Reserve Bank, which had forecast 0.7% growth
Kiwibank economists see mortgage rates ranging as high as 7.5% even though they don't see the OCR going as high as currently forecast
23rd May 22, 3:03pm
128
Kiwibank economists see mortgage rates ranging as high as 7.5% even though they don't see the OCR going as high as currently forecast
ASB economists say last week's 'big lift' in wholesale interest rates added to the upside pressure on mortgage rates
11th Apr 22, 2:21pm
107
ASB economists say last week's 'big lift' in wholesale interest rates added to the upside pressure on mortgage rates
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the March quarter spending was 'especially weak'
11th Apr 22, 1:11pm
24
Latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the March quarter spending was 'especially weak'
Kiwibank economists say exit of people from NZ could be similar to the Aussie mining-fuelled outflow back in 2011
28th Mar 22, 12:45pm
121
Kiwibank economists say exit of people from NZ could be similar to the Aussie mining-fuelled outflow back in 2011
Auckland spending has bounced after the loosening of Covid restrictions, but services spending is still well down, according to Kiwibank credit and debit card data
18th Nov 21, 11:30am
3
Auckland spending has bounced after the loosening of Covid restrictions, but services spending is still well down, according to Kiwibank credit and debit card data
Kiwibank economists, who have this year been highlighting upside risks to interest rates now say some wholesale rates have gone too far and will be 'pulled down'
15th Nov 21, 1:40pm
6
Kiwibank economists, who have this year been highlighting upside risks to interest rates now say some wholesale rates have gone too far and will be 'pulled down'
Kiwibank economists say there's currently an 'imbalance' in the wholesale interest rate markets and they see more 'upside risk' for mortgage rates
26th Oct 21, 3:15pm
28
Kiwibank economists say there's currently an 'imbalance' in the wholesale interest rate markets and they see more 'upside risk' for mortgage rates
Labour market and inflation figures 'strongly demand a more aggressive approach by the Reserve Bank'
BNZ economists say the RBNZ is now 'well and truly behind the curve' as inflation heads to 'a number well above 5%'
18th Oct 21, 2:56pm
46
BNZ economists say the RBNZ is now 'well and truly behind the curve' as inflation heads to 'a number well above 5%'
Data from Kiwibank economists shows a significant drop in spending during the latest lockdown - but much smaller than the drop seen at Level 4 last year
1st Sep 21, 11:53am
Data from Kiwibank economists shows a significant drop in spending during the latest lockdown - but much smaller than the drop seen at Level 4 last year
Kiwibank economists say housing supply should be able to meet demand by 2024 and we could even see an over-supply, leading to improved affordability; house price growth to fall to 1% by end of 2022
19th Apr 21, 3:33pm
41
Kiwibank economists say housing supply should be able to meet demand by 2024 and we could even see an over-supply, leading to improved affordability; house price growth to fall to 1% by end of 2022
Economists see the housing changes announced by the Government as having a chilling effect on investor demand and acting as a significant drag on house price growth
23rd Mar 21, 2:57pm
114
Economists see the housing changes announced by the Government as having a chilling effect on investor demand and acting as a significant drag on house price growth
Kiwibank economists say housing changes to be announced this week 'do have the scope' to cool the housing market but won't address the clear lack of affordable homes
22nd Mar 21, 12:02pm
118
Kiwibank economists say housing changes to be announced this week 'do have the scope' to cool the housing market but won't address the clear lack of affordable homes
Kiwibank economists say they have 'drastically revised up' their projected near-term house price peak before a cooling of prices later in the year; don't see LVRs as having as much impact on investor activity as previously thought
16th Mar 21, 10:39am
190
Kiwibank economists say they have 'drastically revised up' their projected near-term house price peak before a cooling of prices later in the year; don't see LVRs as having as much impact on investor activity as previously thought