By Gareth Vaughan
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visiting India before China could be seen as an insult in China, Beijing-based New Zealander David Mahon says. But he says China's recently announced strategic partnership with the Cook Islands, through which NZ was kept in the dark, shouldn't be viewed as insult to, or provocation of, NZ.
Mahon, who is Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management and has lived in China since 1984, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast.
Luxon, who before the 2023 election said achieving a free trade agreement with India would be a major strategic priority for a National government, is set to visit India next month. He's yet to visit China as Prime Minister, but is expected to do so this year.
"If the Prime Minister had gone to China and conferred upon it as a great power the respect it deserved in the last year or so of his tenure, it'd be fine. But it's almost a statement of a diplomatic insult not going to China before going to India," Mahon said.
He said potentially the prospects for NZ products in China over the next two to three years are very good, with China retaining a great need for protein, wanting to buy seafood, and NZ logs still selling reasonably well.
However, Mahon suggested after a good relationship with China for many years, highlighted by the 2008 Free Trade Agreement (FTA), NZ is now seen as "a country of diplomatic infidelity."
"And for most of my life we've been the opposite of that. Under Helen Clark, John Key, Jim Bolger, we were the country that was respected. Now people are scratching their heads and saying, 'what's wrong with New Zealand? It seems to have lost its sincerity, its sense of loyalty'."
The recent signing of a China-Cook Islands comprehensive strategic partnership, which the NZ Government was kept in the dark over, shouldn't be viewed by NZ as an insult or provocation from China, Mahon said. The Cook Islands is a self-governing state in ‘free association’ with NZ with its citizens having NZ passports.
"...what China is determined to do is to make sure that it retains this relationship with New Zealand, although New Zealand is struggling in many ways to hold up its end."
"We shouldn't be too peevish that they [the Cook Islands] want to do a deal with someone with more money than us," Mahon said.
"In the end, China is going to invest throughout the Pacific, where it can. Part of it is that it wants to express its influence."
The Cook Islands-China agreement reportedly includes plans for co-operation on seabed mining, the establishment of diplomatic missions and preferential treatment in regional and multi-lateral forums, but excludes security ties.
An attraction of the Cook Islands deal for China will "definitely" be minerals, Mahon said.
"If you go back to the technological revolution, which is really what's occurring in Chinese manufacturing, they need these minerals very much," said Mahon. "China is actually very poor in resources."
'China is full of DeepSeeks'
Meanwhile, Mahon said recent surprise around Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company DeepSeek highlights westerners taking their eye off China and its burgeoning technology sector.
"China's full of DeepSeeks. There are companies in China, the names of which we just have never heard of, that are about to change major sectors that influence our lives."
So DeepSeek is like the first, I don't want to say shot across the bows because it makes a sort of military metaphor, but it is a flare, a signal."
"This is what China's been focused on in the last 10 years. Getting away from making nylon socks and teddy bears and cheap stuff and making really good technology, really sophisticated technology. And so this is what's going to come out of China now in waves and make all our lives cheaper in terms of buying stuff that's important to us," said Mahon.
"And it's going to be a major challenge to the major tech companies of the West, creating the kind of competition that markets run on. Innovation's driven by it. So this should be perceived as a positive thing."
In the podcast audio Mahon talks about these issues in more detail, plus this week's meeting between President Xi Jinping and Chinese business leaders, the "shameful scandal" of NZ immigration and visas "violating the spirit" of the FTA, China's relationship with the United States in the time of Donald Trump's second presidency, tariffs, trade war, and the "ghastly concept" of potential military conflict between China and the US, possibly over Taiwan.
"China doesn't want a war. China doesn't want to invade Taiwan. If China were to invade Taiwan, it would be out of the global financial system within hours. China within six months would face a massive economic crisis," he said.
*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.
31 Comments
"China doesn't want a war. China doesn't want to invade Taiwan. If China were to invade Taiwan, it would be out of the global financial system within hours. China within six months would face a massive economic crisis," he said.
Interesting interpretation of reality, by interesting I meant stupid.
Did Russian collapse over Ukraine war? and Russian economy is only size of Guangdong Province in China, and Russians only meant oil to the 'global economy'.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visiting India before China could be seen as an insult in China
not sure this is the case. China is more sensitive for NZ become part of AUKUS than our PM visiting India first.
and the Cook Island deal, I think it's partly because China not fully understand Cook Island's relationship with NZ, and it's linked to the Taiwan issue somehow.
"A veteran taxi driver in Beijing has a much deeper and broader understand of the world than almost all so called experts in the West."
That's terribly funny, xingmowang.
Every time I've said to taxi drivers, anywhere in China, of any age, that I'm from NZ, and in perfect Mandarin that my Chinese wife has drilled into me, they know absolutely nothing about NZ. Some of the wealthier do. And only because they've been looking for holiday destinations.
But taxi drivers? Nope.
My impression of taxi drivers in China was not good at all. Mostly pretty thuggish. One picked me up with spirits on his breath and drove like it too….haven’t been as worried for my life for a long time
Some of my Chinese friends have similarly dim views of Chinese taxi drivers
I took a lot of taxis in Shanghai and they terrified me. They drove like maniacs and in all of them, the seatbelts were jammed behind the seat, so unavailable. However, having spent much of my life in Glasgow, the taxi drivers there had opinions on everything, so the same may be true in China.
For the seventh year in a row, Singh has topped the list as the most common family name given to newborns in New Zealand.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/singh-the-most-common-surname-for-…
I thought this bit was somebody making an ironic joke. But alarmingly Mahon is serious.
"......Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visiting India before China could be seen as an insult in China, Beijing-based New Zealander David Mahon says. But he says China's recently announced strategic partnership with the Cook Islands, through which NZ was kept in the dark, shouldn't be viewed as insult to, or provocation of, NZ........"
How would things change if Xi had a "stroke" tomorrow, what would happen if China pivoted to a less wolf warrior position (still protecting its interests). Place your bets, but hold your hedges too.
Xi will pass, its clear to me that he clipped the wings of tech elite like Ma, but then asked them to fly again last week.... much face loss?
He also misplayed covid-19 unlock and allowing the real estate and tofu dreg construction BS
Like a Aussie CEO visiting a bank floor, the plebs have scrubbed all surfaces clean weeks before he arrives , his eyes can never ever see anything but what he instructs his managers to present. A Shame this was also the downfall of Mao, as the peasant starved.
According to Article 19 of China's Company Law, a CCP party branch may be established in a company when there are more than three CCP members. This applies to Chinese state-owned enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises in China, and Sino-foreign joint ventures. Given how seriously Party officials enforce such absurd regulations—despite the "may" in the clause—rather than turning a blind eye to the 3,075 flights the PLA flew to harass Taiwan over the past 8 months while declaring on behalf of Xi that China has no intention to invade, it would be quite intriguing to know who serves as the head of Mahon Investment’s party branch, especially since their website clearly indicates they have more than three employees.
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