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Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday that affect New Zealand, with news markets are cheering signs the growth momentum is easing in the giant American economy.
Firstly, there were no surprises in the American non-farm payrolls data for December. Those payrolls grew +233,000 in December to 153.7 mln in the headline series. Markets had expected a +200,000 gain. But as regular readers know, there are two related surveys, the widely-reported Establishment (employer) survey, and the parallel Household survey. This second survey shows there is a 159.2 mln employed workforce, more than +15 mln higher than the employer survey. It has recorded that larger level before the pandemic, the difference fell away during the pandemic, and in 2022 is back to the same +15 mln additional. That extra is almost certainly the unincorporated self employed.
(In December the Household data rose an impressive +717,000 from November on the same seasonally-adjusted basis as the Establishment data. It tends to be much more volatile survey, and gives rise to some low-level conspiracy theories touted about the quality of positive American employment stats.)
Average hourly earnings rose +0.3% from the prior month, to US$32.82 in December (NZ$51.80/hr or NZ$108,000 pa) following a downwardly revised +0.4% gain in the prior month and below market forecasts. This was the smallest growth in average hourly earnings in four months.
This reinforces the fact that the momentum in the American labour market is slowing, and the Fed will take heart from that. Financial markets did too.
Employment data tends to lag economic activity however, and this may be a high-water mark to start 2023. A leading indicator wasn't so positive, factory orders. In November they dipped -1.8% from October to take them back to just +6.8% higher than year-ago levels and struggling to account for inflation. A -0.8% fall was anticipated, so this is a worse result. And that was largely due to low orders in the month for civilian aircraft.
Perhaps we should also note that 5.8% of all American cars sold in 2022 were EVs. That is up from 3.2% in 2021. For perspective, total car sales fell -8% in 2022.
Also falling away much sharper than expected is the widely-watched ISM services PMI. It was expected to come in slightly less positive (55 index level from the November 56.5 level), but in fact it dived into a minor contraction in December (49.6) in a sharp shift no-one saw coming.
At the same time, American inflation is biting households. Even though petrol prices are no longer adding to inflation, rents are. In a December survey, more than half the respondents said their rents rose by +$US100/month. Four percent said their increase was more than +US$500/month.
The same survey showed more than 35% of households used credit cards or loans in December to cover spending needs in the prior week. That’s up from around 32% in November and just 21% in April 2021, when they first started collecting this data.
In Canada, they also reported labour force data for December. Their employed labour force grew +104,000 in the month and far more than the +8,000 expected. Most of it (+84,500) was for full-time jobs. It is also a good result for them, and like the Americans, both their participation rate rose and their jobless rate fell. It probably means that more big rate hikes are coming from the Bank of Canada. For perspective, their employed labour force is 19.8 mln, so only 12% as large as their giant southern neighbour.
In Japan, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to a seven-year high of 0.5% yesterday, hitting the Bank of Japan's new upper limit in just weeks as other buyers shy away from the asset. The BOJ surprised the market on December 20 by widening its target band for 10-year yields to 0.5%. Investors lose on rising yields and are no longer buying.
In China, an importer has placed an order for Australian coal, providing clear evidence of the lifting of an unofficial ban imposed more than two years ago.
The EU released its December inflation report, and for the Euro area it came in at +9.2%. This was far less than the expected 9.7% and much lower than the November 10.1%. From the prior month, inflation is slowing fast, running at an annualised -4.2% deflation rate now. Much of this can be attributed to the success of their efforts to insulate themselves from the Russian energy stand-over tactics.
EU retail sales however showed some surprise strength, rising at a +10% annualised rate in November from October.
Germany reported its December retail sales data and said it will have grown +8.2% in 2022, but that will be less than inflation. They also reported some rather grim November factory order data.
The UST 10yr yield started today at 3.57%, and and down a sharp -15 bps from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is less inverted at -70 bps. But their 1-5 curve is much more inverted at -99 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is also much more inverted, now at -62 bps. The Australian ten year bond is -12 bps lower at 3.71%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +2 bps at 2.90%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting at 4.40% and up +3 bps.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is up +1.9% so far in its Friday trade and heading for a weekly rise of +1.3%. European markets all closed about +1.3% higher, although London was the laggard. Yesterday, Tokyo rose another +0.3%. Hong Kong fell -0.3% and Shanghai was up a mere +0.1%. The ASX ended up +0.7% for a weekly gain of +1.2%. The NZX50 closed down -0.2% for a weekly gain of +0.8%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1865/oz and up +US$32 from yesterday in a continuing yo-yo pattern, dancing to the USD tune.
And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday's levels at just over US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$79/bbl and still near its 12-month lows.
The Kiwi dollar has risen back more than a full +1c to 63.4 USc. Basically, we are back to week-ago levels. Against the Australian dollar however we are unchanged at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 59.4 euro cents with a +¼c up-blip. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.1, up a net +50 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,846 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just +/- 0.5%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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(In December the Household data rose an impressive +717,000 from November on the same seasonally-adjusted basis as the Establishment data. It tends to be much more volatile survey, and gives rise to some low-level conspiracy theories touted about the quality of positive American employment stats.)
Here Comes The Job Shock: Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs "Overstated" By At Least 1.1 Million
Inside The "Strong" Jobs Report: Full-Time Workers -1K; Part-Time Workers +679K
What does this mean on a longer-term basis, i.e., going back to that infamous month of March which we first flagged as the moment when something broke in the jobs data, and extending through Dec 31? Here too we find something striking: the total number of full-time jobs has declined by 288K in the past ten months, which however has been more than offset by the 886K increase in part-time jobs.
This means that contrary to conventional wisdom, some 684K jobs added in the past 10 months were not the equivalent of 684K workers finding a job, but 684K workers finding more than one job to afford life during this latest episode of soaring inflation.
What does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Well, the Philadelphia Fed's observations still stand, and while the BLS may claim that payroll prints were accurate (at least until next month's wholesale Establishment survey revision), digging deeper reveals once again that the quality composition of these jobs was far more dubious.
Forget payrolls. Unemployment rate is always off. Not only is labor data lagging, they are old news. ISM new orders absolutely plunged. *Services* industries. This economy is in deep trouble. No wonder curves have ignored Fed hawks. That's not a misprint below. Link
In an environment of declining mortgage applications and property values, now we have a cry for help from the co-founder of "The Mortgage Girls" https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/300772076/my-mortg…
Any guessing on who's next?
"We are the last bastion of virtuous, impartial journalism and always stand for the truth and what's right ... now slap some cash in our begging bowl if you can see past the ads, and please turn a blind eye as we take government money that totally isn't influencing our output".
Ditto. The Christchurch Press had some credibility & dignity in its earlier life. It has now descended into woke platitudes and at times plain nonsense. They can’t even keep it out of the daily quizzes. Newspapers are meant to be there to inform people, not instruct them.
And that, folks, shows exactly why Stuff, despite its woke socialistic pretensions, is just as invested in this obscene property ponzi as any other MSM outfit…
The property ponzi is an important revenue source for the NZ MSM. For Granny Herald, it's their crown jewel I guess.
Wondering if they will allow Ashley Church to do a Spiritual Matters / Armageddon section.
...total car sales fell -8% in 2022.
There remains 3 to 9 month backlog on many popular models. Despite prices ramping up substantially manufacturers are a long way from having any slack available.
As for any sign of US recession or pullbacks I always try to keep an eye on the Sahm Rule:
"When the 3-month average unemployment rate rises a half percentage point above the low of the prior 12 months, the economy is in recession, or is about to be."
We are nowhere near that scenario:
Still a chip shortage in Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-17/hot-chip-shortage-nsw-due-to-sev…
Gave me a chuckle. Same in NZ where the ministry in-charge of economic prosperity labels the entire manufacturing sector as "advanced", certainly as directed by our PR spin government.
The main items this 'advanced' sector produces in MBIE's release are whole milk powder and meat.
If the OECD member states are a bunch of school kids, NZ is probably the slow one that goes hysterical on receiving a participation trophy.
Germany reported its December retail sales data and said it will have grown +8.2% in 2022, but that will be less than inflation. They also reported some rater grim November factory order data. Indeed:
The Bundesbank has noted residential real estate accounts for 80% of total fixed asset valuations in Germany - a country once noted for it's prodigious industrial output.
Larry Summers is busy trying to hide the fact that he was an advisor to crypto company Digital Currency Group (DCG), which is struggling to pay people and possibly filing for bankruptcy. All Larry Summers cares about is Larry Summers.
https://protos.com/larry-summers-gives-up-advisory-role-at-crypto-firm-…
by HW2 | 7th Jan 23, 11:34am
"Dear Mr Orr... please keep the interest rates rising in '23 so I can gain an ounce of credibility"
Never thought of it that way, desperate commenting on your part I think. Anyway, its good that you've finally come to the realization that higher interest rates mean lower house prices. Think of those with term deposits!
by Retired-Poppy | 19th Mar 18, 2:10pm "in January I took out a TD @ 4.27% with interest paid monthly which I reinvest - Rabobank
Banked :)
HW2, its a given that 2023 and most likely 2024 will also be good years for TD's. That will make it a trifecta. I'm about to take out a decent sized 12-month TD @ 5.5% with the same bank.
Bargain asset prices (I mean real bargains) are on the horizon....I hope this helps to clarify my hopeless investment strategy.
"A portend for '23 perhaps" notibly absent are the fundamental reasons to support this. Please tell me this is more than just luck🍀 Anyway, who was it who made reference to a suckers rally?
Clearly opposing this view, you're not on record as having purchased US equities at the low point....I'll leave you to have the last word.
The price of gold will open today at US$1865/oz and up +US$32 from yesterday in a continuing yo-yo pattern, dancing to the USD tune.
I suspect the volatility of real yields has more impact on the price of gold than the USD.
I suspect the volatility of real yields has more impact on the price of gold than the USD.
Yes. OTOH, you also have dark forces supressing the price of gold. Deep state conspiracy stuff I know. But plenty doesn't seem to add up.
Can this claim be refuted?
So it turns out Blackrock is a major investor in ampol Australia that bought Z energy from our government with the previso that they shut down Marsden Point, That makes more sense than the crap we were told at the time and why pie guts wood would not listen to common sense. Link
It seems it can be...
https://fyi.org.nz/request/19630/response/74324/attach/3/16.06.2022%20L…
I may well be wrong on this but thought Blackrock were an asset management firm along the lines of Vanguard (obviously Vanguard is kind of unique with it's mutual ownership model)?
I'd thus interpreted all those 'OMG Blackrock is buying all the houses' conspiracy theories as a misunderstanding of ETF basics, figuring Blackrock offered a property investment fund and investor inflows were spurred the buying.
So back to your question, if Blackrock DO own the company that owned and mothballed Marsden point, do they do so as an asset management firm .. vs as a vulture capital fund, asset stripping M&A deal, or Schwabbian death cult?
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/buying-houses-facts
I think people were confusing Blackstone with Blackrock.
Your other question no doubt is to Audaxes?
Aha yes that sheds some light. And yeah other question was for Audaxes... Ampol is a listed company (ASX / NZX). If Blackrock seem to own a large number of Ampol shares, it would likely be on behalf of a multitude of investors via their iShares index fund / ETF products. Am I missing somthing?
Any speculation on where the next bull market in NZ is going to be?
I have this feeling that the flourishing of the NZ stock market since the emergence of sharesies is going to drive a bubble in stocks after the recession.
Also IoT in agriculture seems to be a big rising star.
I suspect any of the good opportunities in agtech will accrue to private equity.
Your feeling about the emergence of DIY investing via the likes of Sharesies is possible. But I wonder how solvent the likes of some of these businesses are. I have a minor investment in Emerging Mkt EFTs through Sharesies but I need to take the time to better understand what access I have to those holdings through a share registry. I'm more comfortable with direct access to a share registry. The only reason I used Shareses is because I don't have direct access to buy on the relevant exchange.
I also wonder about the business viability of EasyCrypto as well. A platform I rarely use but I get the feeling that their function is little more than an onboarding of fiat into crypto for newbies.
New fuel tech
How this car promises to make petrol – and batteries – history - News - Driven
https://www.driven.co.nz/news/how-this-car-promises-to-make-petrol-and-…
Unbelievable. Also from from the same article;
"The Quantino TwentyFive is not ready for sale yet – and may never be offered to the public.. But it does show that there are green car possibilities beyond what you can find in today’s showrooms"
Hardly a Tesla. I'm sure this minor detail won't (or didn't) prevent them seeking funding from the gullible.
Watch this space.
Starting over a century ago, there are many more fictional "concepts" listed here;
https://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=785
As a teenager in the 80s, I initially fell for the 100mpg V8 one. What was preventing its mass production? Apparently, the great oil companies felt their existence was threatened. They paid off the makers and bought the patents - (or something along those lines)
Unbelievable, just before the crash of 29 this one appeared. "October 5, 1929 Collier’s pages, 10-11, 300 miles to the gallon !
But-but your cute little 2-seater car can somehow carry 250L of fuel, delivering a range of 2000km and still accelerate to 100 kph in a jaw dropping 2.5 seconds!
Why walk away (back pedal) based on something as trivial as four electric motors? The specs on this vehicle are unbelievable😂
The median salary in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2022 was $1,041 per week or $54,132 per year.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/average-salary-information-for-us-worke….
I guess they have a lot of highly paid execs etc that boost up the average.
Most Americans believr France to be an economic laggard, and the base stats do concur.
However, remove the top 1% wealthiest from both countries' stats and they end up neck-and-neck. Remove the top 10% and France comes out ahead of the US across many economic metrics.
Sad isn’t it. I’m all for capitalism, but people also need a moral compass and an understanding that excessive money will not make you interesting, happy, loved or a winner. If I had more money than I could ever need I would take much more pleasure out of giving it away than spending it on yet another yacht.
In case you do not subscribe, they say: "Our lives have changed for the positive" since buying their first home 17 months ago
Home Truths: First-home buyers face pressure as house values fall, interest rates rise
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/home-truths-first-home-buyers-face-pressu…
Be quick or you will miss out forever.....
Those who buy at the top will be spending hard earned money on interest for the next 25 years, Those who wisely buy at the bottom of the valley will be having overseas journeys to Thailand, Malaysia, Canada etc, travelling the world every year......
Come on HW2… my last comment was funny, even you can admit that? I was hoping you took out a New Year’s resolution to be more socially calibrated and less coarse on Interest. Might have been a pipe dream on my part. Anyway, happy new year to you and the family (meant sincerely), a week late but cestlavie
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