Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the global economy is clearly splitting between the US-oriented economies, and Chinese-oriented ones.
First, the giant American economy is ending with mixed economic signals, but consistent with the easing inflation pressure the US Fed is trying to manage consistent with a 2023 soft landing. Certainly the American economy is in far better shape that most analysts and pundits had assumed, both at the start of 2022, and even just three months ago. The resilience is impressive.
US durable goods orders however came in much lower than expected. They were down -2.1% in November from October and their worst month-on-month result since the 2020 pandemic shock. However they are ending the year +6.3% of year-ago levels and keeping up with inflation. Capital goods orders were up +4.6% on that same basis and not quite keeping up.
Meanwhile inflation's impulse seems to be moderating there. Their widely watched PCE price index was up +5.5% in November, a notable reduction from the +6.1% rate in October. "Better" still the month on month rise was at an annualised +1.5% rate, the least in four months and well below the annualised +5% rate in October from September. In November, incomes are still rising at a +5% annualised rate, so faster than expenditures. Overall, these trends are positive.
Also positive was the rise in new home sales in November, up +5.8% from October when a fall was expected. But that can't hide the fact that they are running substantially slower than year ago levels, about -15%. Still, there was an unusual boom over the pandemic, so they are really just lack to pre-pandemic levels again.
And the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey not only confirmed the rising mood, it came in above their flash result. Although it is not back to year-ago levels, it seems to be on its way. Helping are the American petrol prices which continue to edge down. And at this time of year heating oil prices are important for many families and they too are now well off their June highs and back to February 2022 levels. Administration management of these pressures seems impressive in hindsight.
The massive spending bill just approved by Congress (8% of GDP) will flow through their economy in 2023, much of it in local industrial production, not insignificantly because to get Republican support, an outsized part was for the Pentagon. There will be international flow throughs however, not the least being enhanced support for Ukraine's defence.
Across the Pacific, Japanese inflation rose to 3.8% in November, its highest in more than 40 years. Their price rises are broadening and will pressure the Bank of Japan to ease off on its long-running and massive stimulus. In fact the Janapnese government bond yeild turned solidly positive today and a building trend that markets see a change in policy coming.
In China, they reported foreign direct investment growing less than +10% from November a year ago, which is a fast reducing pace. They are calling it 'stable".
They also reported (in released minutes, which differs from their official reporting) that more than 30 mln people are being infected daily there, and nearly ¼ bln people contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December. City streets remain empty as the economic toll builds. This is going to be bad and have global consequences. It will hasten the disengagement of the Chinese economy from the West as even more firms re-orient their supply chains away from the Middle Kingdom. Authorities are hoping this pandemic surge will peak in "early January". But upcoming travel around Chinese New year in late January is likely to turbocharge the spread.
Taiwanese industrial production is under pressure from the full-court press by the Beijing team, and came in down -4.9% from the same month a year ago. Beijing's economic freeze is taking its toll, and now China's natural demand pull is softening fast too.
Taiwanese retail sales are losing out too as their citizens grow worried about the China grip. They are now barely above year-ago levels and not even making inflation's expansion now.
In Germany the mood is brightening as we have reported earlier in the week. But there remain questions about whether this will translate into higher personal spending in the face of threats on their borders. The German savings instinct may crimp their economy.
We should also note that insurers are now pulling back from covering ships that trade with Russia, and this is likely to roil oil and gas markets.
The UST 10yr yield started today at 3.75%, and up +9 bps from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at 3.48%, so a substantial +27 bps rise since then. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -58 bps. But their 1-5 curve is noticeably less inverted at -81 bps, while their 30 day-10yr curve has moved back positive, now at +4 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +1 bp at 3.83%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 2.89% and a one-month low. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today unchanged at 4.40%.
Wall Street is in its Friday session up +0.7% and reversing some of yesterday's drop. For the week it will end down about -0.5% and still on track to be almost -20% down for all of 2022. Overnight, European markets closed in a range of +/- 0.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo fell -1.0%. Hong Kong was down -0.4%. And Shanghai fell -0.3% in its Friday session. The ASX200 ended down -0.6% and the NZX50 ended its Friday session down -0.3%. You can find much more detail on the NZX50 capitalisation, financials and share price movement in our unique resource here.
The price of gold will open today at US$1798/oz and up +US$3 from yesterday and up +US$8 for the week.
And oil prices start today up +US$2 from this time yesterday at just under US$80/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$84/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$75 and US$80 respectively.
The Kiwi dollar opened today at 62.9 USc and up almost +½c. But that is almost -1c lower than a week ago. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 59.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.3. A week ago it was at 72.6.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,836 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. But we have ended almost exactly where we were a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low again at just under +/- 1.0%.
We are taking a short break. The next update will be on Wednesday, December 28, 2022. Enjoy your Christmas celebrations.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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212 Comments
https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-46.asp
So what is the economic impact from adverse reactions? Keep in mind that with the VAERS system it is considered to be at best 90% under reported.
Calculating from that data the chance of severe adverse reaction is 1:3223 per dose. Looks to be close to linear also, so if you have four doses then a 1:800 chances of severe adverse reaction.
Again what is the cost? Should we know the cost? I know they count the cost with particulate matter in regard to respiratory infections.
Is a severe reaction a permenent injury, so a person therefore suffering lowered productivity for the rest of their life? 65,000 people of consequence, assuming the same person doesn't get an adverse reaction twice.
This will be an ongoing cost too, since the vaccine campaign is ongoing.
5 million would not have died but yes science does help us live longer.
Living longer is worth it if it's not just to keep alive but rather enjoyable.
The advancement of science should always be the goal and we should always strive to learn everyday. Adult human brain doesn't learn easily. For it to learn something new, it has to fight against un-learning old things they already knew.
So true ... I thought , if Mr S can play fast & loose with the stats to back his argument , so can I ...
... what the anti-vaxxers forget , is that by the time they were 5 & are heading off to school for the first time , they've already received a number of jabs for a wide range of diseases ...
Medical science wants us to be happy & healthy ...
Having worked with vaccines in the past, I feel that there are vaccines and vaccines. Vaccines developed with one goal, to solve a health problem, at little or no profit to all concerned, for the benefit of mankind. Then there are "vaccines" developed for the purpose of enriching all those involved. from Fauci, to Bill Gates, to the top guys at Pfizer, and many others. You will already know that practically all anti vaxxers are not against all vaccines, just the ones that appeared about 4 days after the research into them started. just the ones that are sold for 40 bucka a pop, plus 40 bucks for the businesses doing the jabbing. Just the ones that have MSM backing them to the hilt, which makes people suspicious straight away. Just the ones that have anyone questioning the mass multiple Covid vaccination at 80 bucks a pop, demonized and criminalised. First time ever, in the history of vaccinations. Very questionable. Are we still legally allowed to question the narrative?
Having just spent a four figure sum getting travel vaccinations for a trip to Africa for my wife and I, I wish they were only 80 bucks a pop in NZ. This includes yellow fever vaccine which is literally a requirement to travel to our destination - no vaccine, no visa.
- people should live healthy lives of physical activity and balanced nutrition
- because health is so important to people, the health industry is profitable, and operates like any business
- modern medicine is capable of feats previously impossible
- not every sick person put themselves in their position
You are struggling to distinguish between these.
Now is a better choice, because if you want you can go live in a cave like a feral, or enjoy as much of today's scientific advancements as possible. Like the digital device you are posting with.
Very few people in the western world live 'healthy lives', totally lack nutrition, then physical activity becomes impossible.
The health industry is profitable because the western world is obese, diabetic and the chemically sprayed lifestyle is now chronically cancerous.
Modern medicine has cured nothing. Their 'feats' are reliant on drugs that only prolong the poor quality of life.
Every sick person puts himself in that position. Diet is hereditary, not disease.
You are struggling to distinguish between reality and what much of today's scientific (covid mRNA gene therapy experiment) experts tell you.
Good luck and I mean that. I live in the cave (with my digital device), my choice and I like what it has taught me.
Modern medicine has cured nothing.
Modern medicine is the reason our leading causes of mortality are now aging/lifestyle related issues. 100 years ago they were diseases and ailments science has now largely either eradicated or mitigated.
It's nice you and everyone close to you has managed to avoid requiring medical science to help them overcome or manage serious ailments.
Sounds like you'd be perfectly happy with your child or maybe gandchild crippled by polio (I am old enough to have known kids who actually were), dead from smallpox or diptheria.
It is a real shame that the idiocy of anti vcaccination has taken such a hold of gullible people, it probably won't be them pays the price directly, but their descendents. They are gonna love you for that.
I think you have a better chance of getting polio with vaccination and the crappy western world diet (vaccine derived polio, shoush don't mention that), than raising my child vaccine free and on a healthy diet. My choice. I do not attack the idiocy of the vaccine movement, by the gullible people or your sick immune Big Pharma dependent descendants.
This data is only for people that took the time to submit a report to CARM. Reporting isn't mandatory. It is not known what rate of submission is. In the USA it is known to be no better than 10%, and probably closer to 5%.
One thing I said at the outcome of this was that the only way we will know the true outcome is with hindsight looking at all cause mortality. I expected it to take longer, but already all cause mortality does not correlate with CARM. One or the other is off, and all cause mortality is a fact that can be relied upon.
Lots of all cause mortality is unexplained, around 4000 deaths last year I think is what Profile has been posting. What is the true ratio of severely injured to deaths, if deaths have been under reported?
International studies I believe have shown myocarditis to be at a rate of around 1:800 for the vaccine. A good percentage of those are yet to die, can take upto 5 years.
Another study shows that everyone who has the vaccine shows elevated levels of troponin. This indicates everyone who has had the vaccine has suffered some degree of heart damage.
We are " over " random keyboard warriors who peddle conspiracy theories & misinformation ... who think they're smarter than the millions of medical scientists & researchers worldwide who work independently from one another , and come up with useful solutions to an actual problem ...
Your argument of lack of reporting just as easily could apply to people who have had long covid. Is there even a long covid register? My partner developed a severe radiculoneuropathy 4 weeks after getting covid with normal MRI findings. It resolved on its own 6 weeks later. Likely a post covid effect but it’s a diagnosis of exclusion. Certainly wouldn’t have been recorded as a long covid effect.
No it isn't. The risk of long covid is less for vaccinated. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01453-0
Google is your friend.
Google is the enemy. Google as in any website (NZ stuff) are either controlled by big business (Big Pharma) or government. Google has become a way to control the masses. I prefer observation and my own research and conclusions. And from what I see from my cave is pharmaceuticals, vaccines, cancer treatments all slowly kill people. Nutrition, exercise and sunlight promote immunity, to prevent disease from our toxic western world diet.
"I prefer observation and my own research and conclusions".
I doubt that in reality but it makes a good slogan. I hope you never seek medical care, ever, because your 'observations' will cure you of that sepsis, cancer or any other ailment that will potentially afflict you, regardless of how much sunshine you get.
Anything is possible. Nothing is 100% certain in life. But look for scientific proof of things before making up your own narrative.
So far the benefits of the covid vaccinations have been shown to far outweigh the negatives in many different studies around the world.
Big Pharma has done a lot of bad stuff around the world in the name of profit, like the prescription opiate problem. But the Covid vaccines are not one of them.
I doesn't come down to the provided "proof" at the end of the day it comes down to whether you believe it or not. Personally I stick to known facts, my age, physical fitness, my illness history etc and then make the decision. Did the benefit of the vax outweigh the risk ? in my case no its as simple as that. I wouldn't trust big pharma or our current government as far as I could kick them. The best you can hope for as far as the "Success" of this vax is concerned is that you never hear the words I told you so.
The Pfizer experiment still has a long way to go. The benefits of this experiment are inconclusive, as shown by a 10% rise in all cause deaths. Who funds the studies around the world? And are you sure the covid vaccine is not another Big Pharma money making scam? As my buddy said in the USA, who was disappointed I never got jabbed. He had just bought a bunch of Pfizer shares.
Is that sarcasm Gummy, its hard to tell. The whole vax campaign was driven by fear, its a very effective weapon. Looking back now the virus should have just be left to run its course, the cost has simply been far to high. Yes a few immune compromised people, elderly people and those with a pile of pre existing health conditions would have died, but they would have all died in the short term anyway. People are still dying of Covid and you have to dig pretty deep now to even find the numbers. Those dying now of Covid would have died 2 years ago anyway. Time for society to harden up.
I am very critical of the government's handling of Covid19 ... they chose fear and compulsion to browbeat folks into submission ... but , it doesn't alter the fact that vaccines save lives ...
... I'd rather they had used " carrot " instead of " stick " ... and that hysterical epidemiologists & modelers were told to shut the F up ....
Simple facts & a calm measured response ... less politicizing of the pandemic ...
... and I'd add ... less trashing of the economy to overcome a nasty flu virus ... the government's response was totally OTT ... and much of that , for political gain ...
I voted ACT in 2020 ... and , I'll do it again in 2023 ...
Piss off Jacinda , bugger off Labour ... you are cruel , not kind ...
As of 31/10/21 there were 2515 recipients of the Herman Cain award ...
... it's a shame that " dead men tell no tales ", because it'd be hilarious to ask them , " dontcha feel a bit stupid now , as you were such a vocal anti-vaxxer , Covid19 denier ... and now covid has killed ya " ....
Wow 5 million lives saved from the original Pfizer covid19 vaccine with absolutely no evidence. Zero. Follow the medical science and you will find increased deaths, with cancers, infections, blood clots or any underlying condition accelerated because of a weakened immunity through mRNA therapy. Do not get jabbed ASAP and definitely do not get 'bolstered'. The medical science with the ongoing profit driven, experimental Pfizer therapy folks, shows it does not stop infection, does not stop transmission, causes numerous adverse reactions and the manipulated medical science, driven by government sponsored media, promoting fear of a mild cold virus that won't kill me and I love the odds.
Just thank god it never got to the compulsory vax stage Fossil, it was getting pretty close but stopped just sort. Massive pressure was applied to get it to keep your job and huge pressure from friends to take one for the team, well f**k that just because you are in a position you are near forced to take it, I have a choice thanks.
My goodness Scarfie, comprehension can be a bit of a struggle for you at times.
Reread the article you posted a link to.
If you really think a headache or nausea are akin to a lifelong debilitating condition with devastating economic consequences then I urge you to stick to lemonade tomorrow.
……or was your post sarcasm? Not really very good at spotting sarcasm.
If you really think a headache or nausea are akin to a lifelong debilitating condition with devastating economic consequences
You'll remember back at the end of last year, Ashley Bloomfield stood up to remind us all, with dramatic pause, that "long. covid. is. real". He referenced a study fresh out of the University of Oxford, which showed that 1 in 3 people infected with the virus would suffer from long covid:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/09/30/long-covid-is-real-dr-bloomfield-war…
This wasn't the first study done on long covid - far from it - but it was the first study to show anything like a 30% prevalence of long covid in infected people. Every study prior to that (and in fact, ever since) has shown a much lower rate.
It's worth finding that study and reading it, because when you do, it becomes obvious why their findings were so high. Since there is no medical definition of "long covid", it's up to each study to define it themselves. The University of Oxford's definition was broad enough to include things like "anxiety and depression", something which hadn't been considered a symptom of long covid in other studies (for obvious reasons; viruses are not responsible for anxiety or depression). In fact, the most prevalent symptom recorded in long covid sufferers according to this study was - you guessed it - anxiety and depression.
Worth thinking about, before you start trying to characterize long covid as "a lifelong debilitating condition with devastating economic consequences".
Long Covid definition - lack of nutrition, exercise, sunlight, through locking people in isolation, starving them of human interaction, promoting fear from the government knows best sponsored media, pleading with people to not talk to their neighbors.
Is Long Covid where young people took paid sick leave (to party), because their buddies did, only to test positive weeks later and happily get stood down again on a positive test they had no idea they had. Yep. Long Covid.
Same could be said about many elderly smokers, do you assume smoking is not detrimental to health? What is a terrible diet? Were they also eating said terrible diet when children and teens?
I would suggest that there aren't 'never eat or drink' items but a heavy skew towards natural unprocessed food away from special occasions. Specifically, plenty of red meat with fat, eggs, along with cruciferous vegetables (eaten raw) and some fruit but not a whole heap due to its high sugar content. I would also add in intermittent fasting (say 15+ hours without eating but flexible to suit lifestyle). For me the fasting seems to be the key to lowering overall energy intake by allowing my body to switch to fat burning mode without feeling hungry nor losing energy.
The stats in those medsafe reports show the vax as protective against both death and serious side effect. You have about half the chance of dying for the next 21 days after the vax and lower than background for any serious side effect. Some with strong confirmation bias might assume its it's an "elixir of life" but there are really just too many confounds in the data to use it for anything useful.
There almost nothing usable in there, terminally ill people (most likely to die) don't get vaxed and when your incidence rate is 2000 times less than some of your background rates something is broken there too (how should we account for this?). The only clear signals are Myocarditis/pericarditis and Bell's Palsy/facial paralysis but even those look like the background rates if your not thinking about it.
Gummy, you seem to dislike the governments response, which is totally in line with your vaccine rhetoric. Stick to your craft brews, way better for you than an unproven, experimental drug from a Pharmacuetical company, immune from profit, striving for profit above people's 'health'.
Three years ago NZrs enjoyed Xmas & NY without any great premonition of the gathering pandemic in China, which the WHO couldn’t admit to being a pandemic for ages. And now China is still stricken and resultantly all the gorgon knots that interweave and bind international finance and trade are still entangled and strangling the globe. Begin to wonder if it might have been better all those years ago if Nixon & Kissinger had simply stayed at home and left China to its own devices. And ditto for Reagan & Thatcher and globalisation.
... there is one story causing the Gummy nipples to spin this Christmas/NY ... and , it's the new Otago hospital being built on the old Cadbury factory site in central Dunedin ...
Due to the Ardern government's time wasting , the project's completion date has blown out , and costs have escalated $ 200 million ... Labour are congratulating themselves for throwing in an extra $ 110 million , leaving a $ 90 million shortfall ... which will necessitate cutting back on beds , operating theatres , MRI machines ...
... could a government be any more useless than Ardern's ... pathetic ...
Interestingly billions spent on some fictional covid response as if all businesses would have shutdown due to some lock down.
But penny pinching when it comes to health and wellness of the same population.
Very interesting too see that they want business to survive but a sick person to wait for hours to get good medicine and support at the hospital.
We need visionary politicians who can build a better future not just make policies to win today.
First, the giant American economy is ending with mixed economic signals, but consistent with the easing inflation pressure the US Fed is trying to manage consistent with a 2023 soft landing.
Even the 3m Tbill stuck right around RRP, below IOER. Despite ultra-hawk Jay Powell, these "floor" rates, such huge demand for bills that also can't be blamed on falling prices at the long end. And now the auction rates today which were just insane. Buckle up, here we go again. Link
That second paragraph is a doosey
easing inflation pressure the US Fed is trying to manage consistent with a 2023 soft landing. Certainly the American economy is in far better shape that most analysts and pundits had assumed, both at the start of 2022, and even just three months ago. The resilience is impressive.
With rising consumer confidence, it bodes well for the near term
HW2, there were many "wise" people just like you wandering around in the 20s after an unusually long period of prosperity. Greed is still greed and there will ALWAYS be a fear when the unintended consequences kick in.
"We will not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes, leading British economist, in 1927
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929.
These people and others tripped over what they also thought were "green shoots". Its highly likely you will too.
If you believe in a soft landing scenario for house prices you need to put forward a convincing case for interest rates to quickly return to Nov-21 levels with little accompanying collateral damage. At current prices, they're still unaffordable especially with inflation now turning up more broadly in everyday essentials soaking up any household financial buffers.
Yep and by the time house prices have decreased to the point you can buy one you find you have lost your job. Its a no win situation, you need a really decent high paying job these days with a skill set that is in high demand or you are screwed. Its always a good time to buy a house as long as you earn enough.
87 new auckland rentals yesterday. This close to Xmas, I would have expected that count to be close to zero or what you could add on one hand
Total available has dropped dramatically by over 1000 in the last few weeks as the number of new arrivals flooding the country continues. The numbers of net arrivals from offshore compares with numbers from January and February 2020 when 50,000 kiwis suddenly turned up imho
HW2, you're deflecting again. If you want others to believe in your soft landing scenario, you need to put forward a convincing case for how interest rates will quickly return to Nov-21 levels without serious collateral damage to our economy. How is this going to take shape? What do you see that I don't?
Nobody is irate here buddy. Just popcorn in hand waiting for your convincing counter argument that is more forward thinking rather than backward looking (it always has so it always will) which could be interpreted as perhaps more simple minded than anything else. How can you expect others to take what you say seriously? How long are you going to keep this irate alcoholic in suspense?
If you want others to believe in your soft landing scenario, you need to put forward a convincing case for how interest rates will quickly return to Nov-21 levels
You are repeating yourself, is that intentional. Or you have alzheimers
And you're talking shit making up your own talking points. If you're so fixated on it then do it yourself or refute it
You're obviously hitting the sherry bottle, sooner or later you'll fall asleep and it will be a Silent Night
Meanwhile inflation's impulse seems to be moderating there. Their widely watched PCE price index was up +5.5% in November, a notable reduction from the +6.1% rate in October.
The most important part of today's US GDP. Big shift in consumer price pressures corroborating various data series showing the same thing. Markets had this all along, and GDP (goods) deflator is only up to the end of September. Slower and lower in Oct/Nov. https://youtube.com/watch?v=AULDDC
But people think the Government should have stepped in and subsidized private businesses. I imagine the same people would have baulked at the cost of bailing out Marsden Point, and we would never hear the end of how Governments should stay out of private business affairs.
It generally is what it is most places. Our cost of living is about 8% more than Sweden's. Pretty good, if you factor in remoteness and market size.
It's also the most expensive time of year to buy summer fruits and veges, with a lower than average yield this season most places. Shit is super expensive at the moment but cans are still pretty cheap. I think the late summer harvests will be pretty massive though, and things will become affordable around Feb (freak weather phenom aside).
The extra difference I guess is Sweden has higher salaries also. And a decent arms industry.
In the Gummy garden : walnuts , apples , pears , figs , grapes , peaches , plums , olives , peas , leeks , corn , pumpkins , mint , raspberries , blackcurrants , globe artichokes , asparagus , blueberries , lemons , kale , rhubarb , chives , thyme , tomatoes , chilis , basil , feijoas , kangkong , parsley , melons , cape gooseberries , kumi kumi ... all comfortably in a 870 m section ... plus a house/garage/tool shed/sleepout ...
In our 12th month here, we have so far planted for on 1010m section:
Apples, passionfruit, strawberries, raspberries, lemons, potatoes, courgettes, lettuce, fejioa. That's off the top of my head, my wife does all the garden work. Some stuff is growing very well, others I think it takes a couple of so seasons for the trees to start sprouting their goods.
A copper spray in winter sorts the peach leaf curl out ... easy ...
... I like Black Doris & Stanley plums ... I steep the Damsons in gin to make delicious pink gin ... the Sloe should fruit this year , too ...
Still got room for roses , hydrangeas , lillies , and a lawn ...
Adrian Orr , infact , for the 75 bp hike ... Robbo will whack us with an extra 12.5 cents/litre on our petrol ... another 12.5 cents atop that in April ... fuel tax back up to where it was .. ... and , the potholes will be all repaired after that ..
.. yeah , right !
... will pressure the Bank of Japan to ease off on its long-running and massive stimulus... markets see a change in policy coming.
Why don't commentators get tired of being wrong about Japan? There is no change in policy coming - they have just adjusted the bounds of their ruthlessly effective yield curve control strategy. In other news, Japan are gearing up for a huge investment in the infrastructure they need for the rest of the 21st century. Imagine that.
Half a quadrillion yen in bank reserves, no correlation whatsoever with consumer prices. The only that changed in those was 2021 supply shock, the same that got repeated all over the world regardless of bank reserves in any location. '14 VAT tax + '21 COVID > every QE ever. Link
The passing comment on the oil price bump is what should be keeping central bankers awake tonight. If Russia play hardball on the oil price cap and / or the Saudis decide to increase their gate price, we will be seeing inflation back on the rise next year. Remember that our CPI index tracks the YoY change in the international oil price with a 3-month lag. You don't hear that talked about much of course - as people like to think that our tiny little central bank can control NZ prices by fiddling with the OCR.
A big Christmas thanks to the staff at Bunnings , Marshlands , who bailed up the boss about traditional Xmas carols playing on an endless loop all day on the PA ... enough they said , no more ....
... when I went in yesterday , Led Zeppellin was belting out loudly ... the staff were in good spirits , the customers looked happy & were spending up ... me too ...
Interesting to see Williams Corp arbitrarily extend the pay-back date of $150m of investor loans.
A quick look at their website shows
- 1000 places under construction
- 500 of those are sold
- They sold 400 total last year
So even if they sell as many this year as last (they won't!) they still aren't clearing the decks.
Rising construction costs, falling sales prices, falling sales rates, run by under 30 year olds who drive a Rolls, and use private Jets.
I wonder how this ends....
Quite a good list maintained by the good folk at this fair website is https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list
RBA warning: Our supply-side problems have only just begun
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-wa…
The innate desire of consumers to keep spending and drive inflation has really surprised me this year.
At the beginning of the year many commenters, including myself, assumed that a small change in interest rates would allow Reserve Banks to manage inflation back to the target range. They haven't even made a dent yet in inflation in reality, every time we could have underestimated consumers willingness to keep spending we did and rapidly wore through ever excuse in the book for inflation.
Something I heard a commentator say earlier this year when confidence had dived to new lows
"This could be the first ever 'consumer led' recession"
It didn't happen at the time and helped me realise how consumers are peons who spend to their capacity. Something needs to happen to take the money out of their hands to stop them spending.
Merry Christmas to everyone @ interest.co.nz ... the Gummster got a big box of Behemoth beers ... Mrs G knows what I like ....
.... for 2023 , let's make NZ a great , cool & funky place to be , again : let's demand from our politicians policies that are good for everyone ... policies that assist in improving our lives ... no more pork barrel vote buying rubbish ... a clear vision for the nation is needed ... Let's do this !
Merry Xmas to all, even the Labour voters!
New Zealand General Election - Sworn In Government
Settled in the next sworn in government of New Zealand after a General Election for the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. All in betting. If no majority achieved, will be settled on party of Prime Minister.
National $1.65
Labour $2.20
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/next…
... very conservative odds ! ... I'm picking a landslide win to Gnats/ACT ... anecdotally , when I talk politics with friends , co-workers , family ... everyone has had a gutsful of Jacinda Ardern & of her government ... mention " Nanaia Mahuta " and tempers flare ... theres alot of angry people out there , fed up with being lied to , fed up with policies to advance some at the expense of many others ...
Its gonna be exciting in 2023 ... the lamingtons will be flying thick & fast ...
There is nothing like the mention of co-governance to bring out the paranoia in kiwis. They may do a better job.
GBH. I'm surprised you are such a national supported considering that Brownlee managed to turn what was New Zealands most attractive city into a parking lot. Maybe you never knew Christchurch.
We generally know what we're going to get with Labour, which makes a mockery of people who continually complain about Labour's performance. A bit like making fun of the disabled kid.
Meanwhile the National Party are supposed to be the competent, business savvy party. When they don't live up to their egos, that is much more deserving of criticism, yet so often that criticism is responded with "You're a Labour fanboy".
... no we dont ! ... did we know that Ardern would shut down our offshore oil & gas exploration in 2018 ? ... it was a bombshell , no one knew ... the industry was totally unaware ... did you know about 3 waters or co-governance ? ... nope , another bolt from the blue ... mega $ billions for a separate Maori health authority ... centralising the polytechs ... smashing 23 DHB's into just 4 ...
With Labour we usually dont know what we're getting , and dont want it when we do ...
It's pretty simple.
Labour is the destination for academics and advocates at the pinnacle of their careers. Getting to experiment with cultural and social engineering, and attempting to eradicate any business activity with negative consequences.
National is the destination for commercial has-beens, lacking much in the way of vision or acumen, but capable of running by-the-numbers spreadsheet economics. Little cut there, little austerity here, sell off some assets over there....
... I could not have put it better , my feeling exactly ...
I'd sent an email to the Gnats telling them their tax cuts for the rich was a barking mad bloody stupid policy : No reply ... they ditched it after the Liz Truss insanity ...
.... boot camps too , another brain fade by Luxon ... ... he's not as stupid as Ardern , but pretty close to it ...
My understanding re the Covid vaccines is as follows- mRNA, which reads the "recipe book," so to speak, for all biological processes in the human body, has been used as the vehicle to introduce the recipe /code to make the Covid spike protein. This is not something the human body would ever make naturally as it is AN ENEMY. I think one of the reasons the vaccines we have taken for Covid hadn't finished/passed testing and the pharmaceutical companies and governments would take no liability, is that the permutations and computations of - for the first time in medical history- forcing the human body to produce AN ENEMY would be vast and take a life time to start to understand. This is a radically new thing and different from all other vaccines of the past. In the past (simplified version) a tiny bit of live or dead virus would be introduced into the body (injected) and the body would then respond with antibodies. Setting about introducing a recipe/code to mRNA is not new. Some people have a heart condition where their bodies don't produce a necessary protein and scientists have cleverly developed the code for this protein and used the body's mRNA system to introduce it to the body solving the problem. Amazing. But to attach a recipe/code for something toxic to the human body causing it to actually manufacture it is something entirely different and as yet the full implications are unknown.
There is a difference between accusing witchcraft and not wanting a fairly experimental vaccine that performs poorly on a fairly benign virus. I had the vaccine when Delta was around, mainly to help prevent its spread and get back to a normal life. But I wouldn’t have bothered for Omicron mainly because the vaccine does bugger all and I’m not old and vulnerable. At some stage the risk of the vaccine does exceed the reward, and i reckon that is the case with Pfizer now.
I would say I’m about 99.9% confident that Pfizer is harmless, but I’m also about 99.999% sure it won’t save my life.
There's also financial costs involved being taken out longer than necessary. Less of an issue if someone else is paying you to be ill.
End of the day if we all waited extended periods to do our own scientific monitoring you wouldn't be very productive.
If people don't want to take it that's not really an issue for me, but the bulk of the rationale I'm reading isn't very good logic.
I’d say I’m very pro science but it isn’t always right. For example do you think margarine is healthier than butter like scientists do? Maybe eating margarine could save you from a heart attack, or maybe taking poisonous rape seed and processing the crap out of it isn’t a great idea. Personally I eat margarine because I prefer the taste and texture.
... by your definition , what is a " bad " vaccine ? ... the MOH went out of their way to purchase " good " vaccines ... Pfizer spent $US billions coming up with a " good " vaccine ...
Very sorry that the MOH & Pfizer cannot reach your exceedingly " high " expectations ...
All of a sudden, the IMF has decided that Aussie has a bubble of epic proportions. Wonder what they make of Nu Zillun and what shrieks of protest would surface if they tried to suggest something similar existed. Well, actually, they do suggest that.
Property prices in Australia may be as much as 50 per cent above what an average household can afford as interest rates rise, a global analysis has revealed while warning the market is at risk of a major crash as interest rates are pushed up to bring inflation under control.
In a report on housing stability and affordability, the International Monetary Fund said Australia’s property and rental markets are some of the most “misaligned” in the developed world.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-misaligned-housi…
The article is based on an IMF report from Dec 14, 2022. It sounds like you want to launch into a howl of protest. When you see measures like 70% bandied around, I can understand why.
Quote: In 2022, housing prices may be as much as 70 and 50 percent above what a median household can afford in New Zealand and Australia, respectively,10 and the average household would need to spend more than 40 percent of its disposable income to afford housing priced at the median.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/I…
I'm not sure how you found what I said so hard to comprehend.
The IMF have been talking about overpriced housing for many years, in virtually most advanced countries. Read their site instead of the news.
Nothing sudden about it. Will the whole system go pooh? Maybe. More likely it'll fracture.
Do you understand what "reversion to the mean" means?
I'm starting to wonder if the whole idea of 'reversion to mean' is a little redundant, particularly as it pertains to property bubbles. Do we need to go back to some kind of long-term trend based on a ratio of price to income for ex? All it needs is a steady supply of credit creation (money supply) and a willingness for the punters to do the donkey work.
Sure, it's a cornerstone of value investing. It's been absent for some time, some say we're heading back there, some say it may be gone across many areas.
I have up trying to make sense of this market long ago.
Maybe the issue is the time scales we think in. A human's life is short so has a finite net income ability of decades. A company may run smaller profits over centuries. Compounded if money is being inflated (or deflated depending on how you slice it).
Chris Joyce goes full Mad Max for 2023 https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/prepare-for-an-economic-bus…
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