Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that the big global housing markets are on the ropes.
In the US the only significant data out overnight was its October existing home sales outcomes and that was weak, like all recent housing data from there. They are now openly calling this market in "a slump", with volumes down almost -6% from the prior month and almost -30% from a year ago. The downshift is building as this is the ninth straight month of falls and apart from the pandemic, these sales levels are at decade lows. But at the moment, sellers are holding off making deals, so prices are holding for the sharply fewer buyers who need to buy.
The relatively sudden pullback by a range of large tech companies, and the resulting layoffs, may be starting a similar track on their labour market. Twitter is the icon here, but certainly not the largest.
In Canada, the pressure on producer prices is not easing, with unexpectedly strong hikes in October from September, and from a year ago.
The CPI inflation rate in Japan climbed to 3.7% in October from 3.0% a month earlier. This was the highest reading since January 1991, and comes amid high prices for food and raw materials, as well as persistent yen weakness.
In China, their housing market is retreating as well, with no sign buyers are ready to return to their damaged market, no matter now much Beijing throws developers in rescue funding.
Not helping is a surge in the pandemic spread there. China’s new daily Covid cases jumped above 25,000 yesterday and a six-month high. Guangzhou had the highest tally, with more than 9,000 new cases among its 19 million residents. It is not a high load, but the impact is enormous given their official response to any infection. It is a pall that hangs over the entire global economy.
There is a general election in Malaysia today, with four candidates vying for the top job. It will be close. Sadly for them, all the options are a recycled set. The former Malaysian prime minister jailed for egregious corruption, still looms large as his son is a candidate. For most of them, this is their last roll of the dice.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.82% and up +4 bps from yesterday and basically back to where it was a week ago. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -68 bps. And their 1-5 curve is a but less inverted at -74 bps. But their 30 day-10yr curve has now slipped into an inversion, now at -4 bps and the first since . The Australian ten year bond is unchanged at 3.64%. The China Govt ten year bond is also little-changed at 2.84%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up +3 bps at 4.22%.
Wall Street is ending its Friday equity session down -0.2% with the S&P500 heading for a -1.0% weekly retreat. Overnight, European markets were generally stronger and by about +1.0% although London only rose half of that. Yesterday, Tokyo closed marginally lower to end the week down -1.3%. Hong Kong ended down -0.3% for a flat weekly result, while Shanghai ended down -0.6% also for a flat weekly result. The ASX200 ended its Friday session up +0.2% and a flat weekly result, while the NZX50 rose +0.8% enabling it to post a +0.6% weekly gain.
The price of gold will open today down -US$7 at US$1752/oz. A week ago it was at US$1766/oz.
And oil prices start today down another -US$3/bbl from this time yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$86.50/bbl. These are net -10% falls for the week.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 61.5 USc and up +½c from yesterday, up a bit less for the week. Against the Australian dollar we are +¾c firmer at 92.2 AUc. That is our highest since April 2022. Against the euro we are also up +½c at 59.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.5 and up +60 bps to our highest since September.
The bitcoin price is now at US$16,557 and down -0.7% since this time yesterday and down -2.6% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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89 Comments
It’s taken a while but I think the building boom is about to collapse big time. A lot of developers will take a massive hit when they try and sell their current developments. Hopefully the government are smart enough to use the lull to build houses, but no chance of that if the right get elected. Act saying today that the market just needs to be left alone and they need to remove the brightline and reinstate interest deductibility, so the same old policies that got us into this mess.
A big residential development in Upper Hutt being built in tranches is moving along well.
From looking at it, 2/3 had been built by EOY 2021 with some nice cars parked up the drive ways.
Was down there last week for work and was told Kai.Ora purchased the remainder. All townhouses with tight roads and cul-de-sacs too.
Those blue or red Leafs & Rangers might need a more neutral looking colour soon..
The construction industry is overheated and needs a slow down.
All the trades in my local area increased their hourly rates from $60 +gst an hour to $85 plus gst an hour this year. I recently had to hire a gas plumber at short notice during the week, $98 an hour plus gst. A ridiculously huge amount.
I don’t live in Auckland either, I’m in the Manawatu.
they have been able to get away with it because demand is outstripping supply.
wont even mention the cost of building materials.
Cracks are also appearing in the renovation space as households pull back from discretionary spending.
Renovation expert Jen Jones, from Nine Yards Consulting, said demand for renovations had definitely slowed, and there were fewer new inquiries generally.
Tradies have in the past couple of downturns chosen to move overseas instead of dropping their asking rates. This time could be different with the usual destinations other in similarly dire if not worse economic shape.
Agreed. We normally DIY as worst case scenario we have access to free labour (family builders/registered electricians/plumbers) except for gas.
We managed to sort out a cash job for our Rinnai Gas Hot Water install but it was like pulling teeth to get the actual gas cert filled out. Labour cost was like $600, means nothing if you don't have a cert to give your insurance company.
Backdoor mortgage bailout for those losing jobs next year? #autumnstatement2022 Link
Next week is important with RBNZ meeting on Wednesday and could be an opportunity for Mr Orr to act atleast once out of his comfort zone.
Fed is at 3.75% now and in December could be 4.5% or 4.25%. Should RBNZ raise by 0.75% or 1% as will be the last bullet that RBNZ could fire and if it does not hit the target....wait of three months could prove to be fatal ........Least Regret approach is required by Mr Orr, now more than ever.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was and probably is today no fan of John Taylor’s regime. Among the former’s first missives produced at his post-retirement perch over at Brookings, Mr. Bernanke in April 2015 wrote:
“As a policymaker I often referred to various policy rules, including variants of the Taylor rule. However, it seemed to me self-evident that such rules could not incorporate all the relevant considerations for making policy in a complex, dynamic economy.”
Yes, but that’s the point in all this. The economy is too complex to direct from the top, and any effort trying to manage this way will be as it has always been doomed to fail. This is why the entire purpose of any central bank was narrow in scope, once constrained to Walter Bagehot’s ancient dictum.
Focus on the money, let the real economy undertake the real work. Being unable to do the first part leaves these pseudo-central bankers grasping at their own analysis of the details – such as divining inflation rates and output gaps. Links
Headline in nzherald today but doubts that Mr Orr will take Least Regret approach :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/preview-reserve-bank-set-to-deliver…
That's what makes a market!
We, too, had a T/D mature on Thursday. And we've already shoved it out for .....5 years @ 5%.
But for the first time ever, the question I asked myself wasn't "Where are % going from here?" but "Will I still be here to roll it over in 2027!".
(NB: There's ever possibility that % rates will go higher from here. But if the last 15 years has shown us anything, it's that the unexpected has become normal. A bit of hedging won't hurt)
Could you have bought a bond at 5%has coupon,and possibly picked up some cap.hains if OCR come back down substantially,before 3 years is up? Or a 10 year bond for that matter. It would be good to have some articles on bond trading, wouldn't it? Maybe we could have some Mr Chaston?
I want to pay cash for things like travel, cars, unexpected expenses etc. rather than get more debt.
And I don’t want to dig in to KiwiSaver in a financial emergency:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kiwisaver-hardship-withdrawals-rise-as-mo…
Sure that's fine, but earlier you said you are looking at 5.5% term deposit which is not the same as spending the money on cars travel etc… My point is that having a mortgage costing about 7% interest, whilst investing in a term deposit earning 5.5% minus tax = 3.85% net, does not seem a winning strategy to me because you're actually going backwards -3.15%. I would rather use the money that you're thinking about putting in a term deposit to reduce the mortgage.
HouseMouse, agreed there will be good times next year for buying stocks again on the dips. Re TDs, 15 months ago 2.99% for 5 years was available for mortgages but many missed the opportunity because they thought it could get even lower. We might soon be at a point where TDs wont get much higher, so if your reasonably happy with 5 to 5.25% TDs consider taking it. Its hard to pick the exact highs and lows. How many homeowners wish they had a 2.99% mortgage now with 3.5 years still to run...........
"How many homeowners wish they had a 2.99% mortgage now with 3.5 years still to run..........." Yvil for one.
Only if he had listened to The Prophet about Interest Rates going to 7%. First Mistake.
Interest Rates are going to 10% Next Year. Yvil has Not learnt from his First Mistake and is about to Repeat that again.
A Wise Man Learns from his Mistakes the First time.
Was thinking of placing some with Kiwibank at 5%, interesting in the Fitch credit rating upgrade recently "Sovereign Support Extremely Likely: Kiwibank's GSR and IDRs reflect Fitch's view of an extremely high likelihood of support from the New Zealand sovereign, if required. This is driven by the effective, and soon to be direct, 100% government ownership". In other words, Kiwibank already likely has deposits guarantee, ahead of the big 4.
... yes ... makes me wonder if holders are in denial , and are putting off selling out ... hoping for it to rebound first ...
The same thing could be said for houses in NZ ... even after recent falls , they're still incredibly overpriced ...
... the NZX is demonstrating the value of a freely liquid market , in the collapse of My Food Bag ... that stock has lost 70 % of its share price since listing 18 months ago ... and , rightfully so ...
... it wasn't just that it was overpriced ... why did they list it on the NZX ? ... so insiders could cash out !
89 % of the funds raised to list MFB went directly into the pockets of directors ... all but one sold out completely and scarpered with the money bag ...
11 % of IPO funds went into the existing company to repay debt , marketing & general operations ... 11 % !!! ... crikey ...
That's true ... but MFB was spruiked by Nadia & the underwriters ... alot of media attention , glitz & glamour ...
... a hook to land gullible investors & a few KF providers ( Milford Asset Mgt ) ... professionals should've known better , and decried the listing ...
Too much Eurasian fluff ... not enough substance ...
Exactly, of course what Simon Henry was saying was correct, but some didnt like the way he said it. There were many warnings about the float of MFB including by posters on this site, but along with many assets in 2021, people paid far too much in the hype. NLs 14 million would only be worth about 4 million now if she hadnt flogged them in the float.
Bitcoin resiliance is actually remarkable given what's happening
You have to remember that ol' ratty is down 75%. It could fall 50% from here. Done it before not so far back - either end of 2019 or early 2020.
But when you understand that 67% of BTC has not moved for over 12 months, maybe it's not such a surprise. It cannot be prised from the diamond hands who take if from the weak hands. That's what we see time and time again.
Wait until people find out that the banking system runs similar to FTX practices. It's amazing how this goes over their heads. Relying on blind trust. The minute it goes, so does the system.
Twitter will do well under Musk - as all his businesses do.
From what i hear 80%+ of staff were cruising and doing not a lot, same with the exec team. Was a loss making mess
The company only needs about 20% of its functionality to please 80% of its users.
So easy and fast to get rid of 80% of its costs by shaving 80% of staff and server resources which are surplus to reqs. He can simply lose 20% of users, sort the business model and massively increase profits and the business value.
Sounds good to me. He probably overpaid by a few tens of $billions. But in his world its loose change.. and he will make more back when its a profit machine in the next boom.. plus he will own his own marketing machine.. for his other businesses to benefit.. and likely lock out the other car/space companies from that channel
Mainstream media are drama queens who dont seem to even begin to look at strategies and long tetm visions..
Something about chickens and roosting comes to mind.
Taxpayers have been saddled with a £133bn bill after an accounting trick introduced in the wake of the financial crisis backfired. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that the Treasury will be on the hook to cover losses on the stockpile of government debt amassed by the Bank of England during the financial crisis and Covid pandemic. The then Chancellor, declared that income from these bonds could be used to reduce government debt......(However, today) “There is no doubt that the Bank did more QE for longer than they should have and we are now reaping the consequences.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/18/george-osborne-saddles-…
Which is why it makes me nervous when I see a picture of a successful property developer (Australia) like this.
The latest acquisition? Lindeman Island, that has had a string of developers 'have a go' at it over the last 50 years, and all have come out of it the same. Chastened.
Dressed up, aviator sunnies in front of a nice car. Immaculate.
Can't help but notice the dodgy looking deck taking up the bottom part of the photo. Warped boards, knots, hasn't been stained in years.
A visual metaphor for the structure of his development company?
Interesting. We already moved to Aussie back in June but still apply the math.
We are sitting on 300k deposit, if we were to buy a equavilent near where we used to rent it would cost around 1.1mil. Even with our deposit, the mortgage repayment per week is approximately $1100 per week. The place we were renting costed $650 per week.
The math suggests it's still too expensive to buy compare to rent. at least in our situation. Still think it's lucky we didnt buy a place back in 2021 despite having the ability to do so.
I was looking at places in 2021 for around 3. Now I could only pay 2.5 at a pinch. All the agents are ringing me up telling me they have the perfect property for our old budget. I explain the market has changed and say we will offer our new budget for the property in question. You really start to hear some desperation in their voice at that point.
Any one who stretched themselves in 2021 will be hurting.
Quite right.
But given the prevailing 'advice' that many of our young were given - "You've got your whole working life to benefit from being in the Growth Fund. There'll be ups and downs, but over time you'll be way better off. Just don't look at the balance, and you'll be fine" - I wonder how many Cash-Convertees there will be.
Discount retailers going gangbusters in the UK.
Full year profits for discount grocer Lidl have soared by more than 300% as shoppers continue to make the switch from traditional supermarkets.
In the 52 weeks ended 28 February 2022, the discount grocer saw a hike in pre-tax profits of £41.1 million, compared with £9.8 million last year. EBIT also saw an 80% rise to £79 million, from £44 million in the same period last year.
https://www.grocerygazette.co.uk/2022/11/17/lidl-profits-customers/
Chicken strategy is not to do it.
Best move would be to subsidise their first 10 massive stores in key locations in all key cities somehow via a special tax deal or some for of rebate. Guarentee them a level playing field for 3-4 years on product supply costs and product access on - the basis of a maximum profit of say 10% for initial5 years and some agreement after.
Let the market become the battlefield consumers need.
Best move would be to subsidise their first 10 massive stores in key locations in all key cities somehow via a special tax deal or some for of rebate. Guarentee them a level playing field for 3-4 years on product supply costs and product access on - the basis of a maximum profit of say 10% for initial5 years and some agreement after.
But the supply chain cannot exist as in the EU, U.S,, and Japan contexts.
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