Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news that although the Russia-Ukraine headlines dominate the general news, the global economy is continuing its recovery, one which is supercharging commodity demand.
Last week's American jobless claims rose marginally to 238,000 for the 7 days, taking the total number of people on these benefits to 1.975 mln and below pre-pandemic levels because more people found jobs or their benefits expired. The seasonally-adjusted level is near an all-time low.
Labour shortages, cold weather and timber shortages have all meant that US housing starts fell in January, and that was not expected. But building permits rose and to their highest level since 2004. They want to build but supply chain issues are holding them back.
The Philly Fed's wide-watched factory survey in the powerhouse Pennsylvania manufacturing heartland suggests the same supply-chain issues. Strong order levels eased a bit, but labour availability remains very tight. These firms now report that they are successfully passing on the higher costs they face.
And we should note that although its growth has flattened out over the past month, the US Fed's balance sheet is still inching up, now almost at US$8.9 tln, essentially built up over the past two years to be 37% of annual US GDP. The March Fed meeting is expected to cap that, and start reducing it.
Japan has reported some very encouraging machinery orders in December, up +5.1% year-on-year and +3.6% of that in December alone. This data confirms the strong machine tool order data we had earlier. They need their capital goods sector to fire because imports are rising sharply (especially oil).
In China, their currency is appreciating against the USD, now at ¥6.33 to the greenback. But it still has some way to go to reach the ¥6.06 level it was at in 2013. Interestingly, the yuan is still only used in 2.3% of all international trade, although that is up from 2.1% two years ago. Of course, use of their currency in trade settlements is one thing; the real indicator is what the underlying transactions are priced in, and there the USD remains supreme.
The aluminium price has powered to a new record high yesterday, US$3307/tonne (NZ$4935), up +18% since the start of the year.
Australia added +13,000 new jobs in January when none were expected, but it actually isn't great news. That is because it lost -17,000 full time jobs and gained +30,000 part-time jobs. Their jobless rate stayed at 4.2%. The switch to part-time jobs helps explain that hours worked fell by almost -9% between December 2021 and January 2022. Rising sick leave is also being cited. But looking past the detail, it is clear that Omicron did not really affect their labour market that much in January, overall.
In NSW, there has been 9,995 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 109,989 (revised) active locally-acquired cases, and another 14 daily deaths. There are now 1,478 in hospital there, now well off their high. In Victoria they reported 8,501 more new infections yesterday, a little higher. There are now 50,042 active cases in that state - but there were 9 deaths there. Queensland is reporting 5,665 new cases and 39 deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 1624 yesterday and 2 more deaths. The ACT has 537 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 680 new cases and no deaths. Overall in Australia, more than 27,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 15 cases stopped at the border, plus 1573 new cases reported in the community, another new record.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.98% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today little-changed at +48 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at +84 bps and their 30 day-10yr curve is flatter at +195 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down -3 bps at 2.21%. The China Govt ten year bond is -1 bp softer at 2.80%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down by -1 bp also at 2.82%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down -1.2% in their Thursday afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets all closed lower. Paris lost the least (-0.4), London the most (-1.0%). Yesterday, Tokyo ended down -0.8% after the prior day's huge rise, Hong Kong was up +0.3% and Shanghai was up a lesser +0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session up +0.2% and the NZX50 rose a stronger +1.1%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1897/oz and up another +US$32 from this time yesterday. For the week so far, gold is up +3% and a 35 week high.
And oil prices are down -US$3 to just on US$90/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just under US$91.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today ¼c firmer at 67 USc. Against the Australian dollar we up at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 71.3 and +20 bps firmer.
The bitcoin price is down -3.4% since this time yesterday and now at US$42,114. Volatility over the past 24 hours has high at +/- 3.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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150 Comments
Parliament protest: New poll shows 30 per cent of Kiwis support anti-mandate protest | Stuff.co.nz
30% support for protesters.
Every day they are there they gain more legitimacy.
Every day they are there the government and police look more like fools.
If the government and police cannot handle that circus, you can see why gangs operate with such freedom.
Government and police are 🤡
The Police are whinging about the fights that will break out as it will turn into a riot. They don't care about the crime zone they've let develop, or the economic damage with the major disruption to public transport. At the rate their extremist camp is expanding they will be camping inside the Police National HQ in a matter of days.
We need a new Police Commissioner.
You're setting a pretty high bar for almost any law to be enforced if we don't enforce them against people literally blockading our parliamentary precinct. If I were a Wellington resident, I'd be seriously questioning why I should ever pay for parking again... People getting speeding fines for being single-digits over the speed limit, but you can apparently just ignore trespass notices at a core democratic institution and it's fine?
What is reasonable force when enforcing a criminal trespass order? I would have said 'removing someone who refuses to leave after being served one' is more than reasonable. People piss and moan about the rule of law when sports stars get light sentences, but this is arguably far worse - it shows that if you pose enough of a threat in this country, you can do whatever you want. Why should the rest of us keep playing ball?
I know the first day (when there were 60 odd arrests) some things happened. But in the modern world of social media and the need to record every little interaction. I am finding it hard to believe the purported level of aggression and intimidation are still happening given no apparent footage/evidence (more so given the Government's assertation that it is widespread).
While our Police may be "soft" in their approach. Given the very stern instructions from the PM it seems odd that they wouldn't be making more arrests if there are assaults of school kids happening.
.Very true indeed. Those nasty images worldwide instantaneously. New Zealanders fighting themselves and all the selected headline grabbing collateral damage. The government must surely be embarrassed enough already. Aren’t Justin & Jacinda bound by common aspirations. Such connection would have warned our PM of the Ottawa outcome giving her the insight to display some leadership by convening the requisite bodies and authorities to manage the arrival of the protestors and keep things under control. Thinking ahead is just something about which this government has proven, time after time, of being completely incapable.
But when they do use sufficient force, people crop the video removing all context and post the snapshot online.
Like the teenager who had an officer with both hands on his head. Would like to know what the events were leading up to it, conveniently left out of the video. You'd have to be doing a fair bit to warrant that sort of response.
And then they interview him a few days later. "Aww dinn du nuffin, i was just minding my business and then boom on the ground".
Ironic really. How nowadays, propaganda cuts both ways. Many might suggest the government has wilfully used this tool to their advantage throughout the pandemic, manipulating the media and spinning facts like googlies. But now there are hundreds of phones at the ready to capture scenes that might erupt if there is a forceful attempt to remove the protestors. Enough footage immediately available, most definitely, for the protestors to Tik Tok etc their own propaganda globally and thus return fire. We have many friends in many places overseas and without exception the view they are getting of the status in NZ re covid, is making our nation out as a hapless, back water in denial of reality. A broadcast of a civil upheaval concerning violent eviction of protesters will only worsen that perspective. This our government must know, and of course the protestors know that they know, don’t they.
Police have operational discretion but there is going to need to be a review of how decisions have been made and the outcomes that have resulted.
The whole law and order systems operates based on a belief that if you commit a crime the police will take action and you will be punished. By ignoring rampant lawlessness the police have lost that belief and consequently the behaviour of breaking the law has increased. This is increasing the severity of the action police will need to take in the future not reducing it.
And Andy Foster. Who is almost completely absent as an advocate for Wellington and in ensuring the council are supporting the response. Andy wants tax payers to support businesses in the area. No, how about that money comes from council and police budgets? The council and police are the ones accountable for enforcing parking and traffic laws. They should bear the costs of their decisions to let this fester. They should have closed off this area before the protest even reached parliament. They could see what happened in Ottawa and the arrival was forewarned.
It's only peaceful because these idiots are being allowed to get away with committing a criminal offence. The police have capitulated, it's pretty to be peaceful when you're above the law and no one is actually challenging you on your behaviour. The Americans would consider this an insurgency and send in the National Guard.
Bar the hoons and yahoos I have some sympathy for the protesters. Its unfortunate there are the genuine protesters spoilt by a few. The time is now over in preventing Wellingtonians going about their normal business. A heavier hand is now required. There's been adequate time to prepare.
I wonder what's happened to John Minto. Thought he'd be down there making sure he's prominent in front of the TV cameras or is he now a backroom person plotting the protestors next move.
I appreciate your views VTHO, but please don't refer to "Police" as clowns. Sure some decision makers within the 'Police Organisation' are certainly lacking in a big way but your average front line cop who gets a camera shoved in his or her face is just performing the job they are told to do, the same job that would involve confronting a meth head with a machete breaking into your house. I'm sure a lot of them aren't too happy with some of the decisions being made either.
(A) it’s definitely a difficult problem
(B) the issues are definitely with leadership rather than front line.
Police aren’t clowns, but there does need to criticism of an approach that isn’t working.
It’s also been evidenced that police are under resourced. This has been evident for a while. Despite National and Labour promising more police.
This is a false choice that is not helping. It’s not a question between doing nothing and hitting someone with a baton. Police need to exert control over the area - the entry and exit. They also need to tow cars. None of that requires hitting anyone.
The other day a protestor ran around parliament and was able to harass MPs and the save the children people. Clearly that shows police are not effective in controlling the area.
Unless they're hitting back. I imagine it may be difficult to exert control when people are stubborn and potentially violent, why not give the police the tools to have the upper hand? We're not talking about "fighting like a gentleman".
Unfortunately a bit of tough love might be needed to put some of these people in their place, if kind words and gentle physical persuasion is not effective.
Correct Frank. And make no mistake, the Police will be collating a massive amount of intelligence on all the players on site. They will already know who the main players are and the relationships between them. I wouldn't be surprised if some are even inserted within. They will have prosecutions ready to go when they decide to start plucking the worst elements form the crowd.
Don't underestimate NZ Police - they are world class. A lack of swinging batons does not men they are failing.
I have worked for the Police, they are a well trained group but this current leadership is not serving them well.
This incredibly poor choice to interpret the law and in essence neglect their primary law-enforcement role will have many ramification far, far in excess of this current situation. The lack of control allows the gangs much more license and influence, and unfortunately this comes at the worst of time as the gangs are swelling with recently returned charismatic and experience members from Australia looking to expand not just territory but end to end influence.
Anyone with children will regret this time as the future will be much more lawless and unfortunately more corrupt. (see GC).
Don't stop there, keep pulling the string, why are the laws so weak? Look at the source, the poison well at the centre of our society, an Academia that without any justification has an out-sized sway on political discourse. So many of today's ills come from the astonishingly uninformed views of a few self-important academics pursuing unrealistic and frankly regressive social policy. Keep pulling and the lack a spiritual and community base to our belief set means rather than work together on social outcomes people are focussed on the self, the time that could be spent furthering common goals are are spent in introspection.
This is a fair comment. My description was broadly aimed at the higher ups and not your average front line officer.
However the image of police being projected right now to the whole country is what we see at the protest. And while on an individual level the officers are probably doing a good job, the headlines seem to be increasingly favouring the narrative that the police are weak and are making empty threats (see towing cars) which lead to my comment.
Following this, if you have been the victim of petty crime or have gang activity in your area, you will no doubt have a bad taste left in your mouth with little being done about it. Again, not questioning the work of the individuals, but the effectiveness of the organisation as a whole. I do sympathise with the lack of funding and man power, this undoubtedly has a significant impact. In which case, the government is very much responsible and probably a better target when I feel like name calling. Surely you can get behind that angle!
Coffee too strong this morning jfc what a ramble..
Sorry to disappoint. Go ahead, call me lame..
Reddit NZ (and Reddit in general) is chock full of some of the most tragic types you'd ever come across.
If you want a laugh, go on Reddit NZ at 1pm when the Covid figures get released, just to see how agonised and worked up they get over every single case. In fact any Covid-related thread on /r/nz is worth reading, if only to see the true insanity of some of those who walk among us.
If you want to understand why Reddit is full of such people, go and Google "reddit meetup pictures" and then you'll immediately understand.
I think Covid gives this bunch of misfits a chance to feel superior to others, and seek revenge on an out-group (in this case the unvaccinated,anti-mandaters).
The attitude of the average r/nz user to anyone facing the challenges of MIQ has been disgusting.
Doesn't matter what the circumstances, every time it's a chorus of "well you get what you deserve for being overseas", or "haha you should have known your dad/mum/whatever was going to die before getting on a plane".
I suspect - for what it's worth - the average r/nz user has never ventured further than their nearest vape shop or comic book store. If you live in mum's basement, why would you ever care about those who spend time overseas.
I have strong views about the attitudes of Kiwis overseas who don't pay tax here but expect the whole country to be set up as a summer resort for their benefit, and the fate of the people who actually live here and risk levels they are exposed to be damned. The attitude of some Kiwis overseas has been totally tone-deaf to how tough some in NZ are copping it from the massive increases in living costs and financial effects of lockdowns and restricted trading. That, frankly, is their attitude problem to solve, not mine.
But even with that massive chip on my shoulder, the management of MIQ two years into the pandemic, the shambles that is priority allocation and the sheer failure to even bill people correctly when they have left within a few months as clearly agreed beforehand is just a mess. It is past the 'we're doing the best we can to deal with a suddenly unfolding situation' of 2020 to now 2022 and MIQ is still a disaster zone. I do feel sorry for Kiwis still trying to navigate what should be a far more effective and refined system that only seems to be overhauled when the opposition starts getting traction.
Many police actually quietly support the anti-mandate viewpoint as they’ve seen many of their colleagues walk away from their job due to the mandate. Same within the army. All the Wellington towing firms support the protestors. The NZHerald poll was quickly taken down as 49% of voters supported the protesters within 2 hours. Horizon 30% support.
If the general NZ public quietly support the general intent of the protestors - and they are popping up in Picton Christchurch Dunedin etc then the govt will be forced to respond. The govt actions via Mallards actions, and Michael Woods hate speech in parliament and the PM avoiding all questions is turning kiwis against the govt and tacit support to the protest.
This is a global protest movement so months to run yet.
The only way to know the populations position is for a general referendum. Certainly niche surveys will simply tell you the time with your own watch. You watch may still be the wrong time.
If only the protest could narrow down their issues to a set of two or three this might be possible.
The streets being blocked are hardly vital thoroughfares (other than the bus interchange) and given the amount of WFH and isolation events, the traffic and the people impacted is significantly down on what you would expect on normal business days.
It would appear the Taranaki testing centre is having a bigger impact than the protest on ones ability to navigate through the CBD.
I guess it's down to whether the vaccine mandates and lockdowns are lawful or not. I am not against vaccine and lockdowns. If they are not lawful in first place, then why can't people protest against them? I am not a law expert, but it seems to me that bill of right clearly states the rights not to be subjected to medical or scientific experimentation, right to refuse to undergo medical treatment and freedom of movement.
The courts get to decide what is legal or not. People can take their case to court. My understanding is people have taken employment cases related to vaccine mandates and these haven’t been successful.
But even if something is lawful people can protest against it. They just need to do that without parking illegally and wrecking structures on parliaments grounds.
I am not sure it's actually illegal parking or not if a rightful protest is happening. If New Zealand law enable people to protest, then the protest will need to occupy public road and car parks (if they are on public road) most of time. You can't protest by just sitting at home and sending emails right? If you are saying setting up tents and staying over nights as "wrecking structures on parliaments grounds", then yes, otherwise where can they stay then while protesting?
If Jacinda and her government are really for its people, then they need to start listening and send someone to engage the protest. Simply saying "illegal protest" "river of filth" "imported" is not gonna help with the situation. I don't agree with David Seymour most of time, but I think he made a good move by trying to engage the protestors with conditions. A democratic country shouldn't be only for majorities but also for minorities. If you can engage minorities in society and passing laws for their benefits, I am sure you can engage a protest with 30% support of New Zealanders to hear them out...
Pity Arden didn't tap Seymour or Peters to be a proxy to talk to the protestors. That way if things go well, she can take credit for doing something. If it turns to custard, she can blame the proxy...
Pity her degrees in political science and journalism didn't teach her such flexible thinking.
And she should make an example of Mallard, who's always been a jerk but now has shown he is a king of jerks and hurt the govt. It's a bad example of leadership.
Seymour telling the protesters "get rid of all your vehicles and tents then we can talk" is never going to fly.
If it was "oust anyone protesting anything other than mandates, or inciting violence, then we can talk about mandates" then it could work.
We need to quickly deplatform the dangerous crazies that have gate crashed the anti mandate protest before they become more emboldened.
The courts get to interpret the legislation in line with common law. You are right people have tried to raise an injunction against an enforcement of this law Legal battle to put a stop to mandatory vaccination dismissed by High Court | Newshub and yes it was dismissed.
People can lawfully protest until they are trespassed and then they need to move their protest elsewhere. Or in this case until some other non-legal random event happens in the banana republic of NZ
Quad vaxxed Israel showed the judgement was a farce. One lawyers ill informed judgement blew away the Bill of Rights Act.
"Overall the conclusion that is properly drawn from all the evidence is that the vaccine is effective at reducing the transmission of the earlier variants of the virus, and that it is also effective at reducing symptomatic infection and the detrimental effects of the Delta variant.
… There is no need for proof on a scientific basis. I am satisfied that it is likely that vaccination contributes to preventing the risk of transmission."
https://www.courtsofnz.govt.nz/assets/cases/2021/2021-NZHC-3012.pdf
I am not sure if I am the only person with access to Google.com but you should try it. After searching for "vaccine mandate nz legal" the very first entry was this one.
My Vaccine Pass – work vaccination mandate — business.govt.nz
And that has a link to this legislation
This took me 20 seconds.
Also this link
Legal battle to put a stop to mandatory vaccination dismissed by High Court | Newshub
So is it lawful? Yes.
This is the headline law pertaining to mandates etc. There are some pretty wide powers being granted here.
https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2020/0012/latest/LMS344134.h…
We only have to wait until 13 May 2023 as it will be repealed on this date if not repealed sooner. And all other orders issued under this one are most likely repealed as well.
Interesting how it coincides with the official trial date, data collection and emergency use approvals of said vaccines.
The widespread transmission of covid in Israel and 90% vaxed NZ shows the judgement was a farce. The judgement only went through because the judge erroneously believed the vaccines significantly reduced transmission. If he had any class he should reverse the judgement in light of rampant transmission amongst vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.
"Professor Cyrille Cohen is head of Immunology at Bar Ilan University and a member of the advisory committee for vaccines for the Israeli Government. In a wide-ranging and forthright interview, the Professor tells Freddie Sayers:
- He and his colleagues were surprised and disappointed that the vaccines did not prevent transmission, as they had originally hoped
- The Green Pass / vaccine passport concept is no longer relevant in the Omicron era and should be phased out (he expects it to be in short order in Israel)
- The biggest mistake of the pandemic in Israel was closing schools and education
- Widespread infection is now an inevitable part of future immunity — otherwise known as herd immunity
- Omicron has accelerated the pandemic into the endemic phase, in which Covid will be “like flu”
https://unherd.com/thepost/israeli-vaccine-chief-we-have-made-mistakes/
What do you expect ? the social contract that exists in NZ has been broken by drastic and unjust laws rushed without proper public consultation. They have created a 2 tier society breaking apart families, friend and communities. Those that comply and those who do not. Those unjust laws simply need to go.
1. The Government's first response was to be dismissive and arrogant - which triggered and galavanised the convoy even more
2. Ignoring them makes them even more obstinate and paints the government as elitist. More and more Kiwis are seeing them that way, and that explains why the support for the protesters is growing
3. Not wanting to meet the protestors (admittedly they should have organised a spokesperson) or even entertaining the thought of meeting the protestors once they elect a representative comes across as weak. A PM should face the protestors, and show steely courage and stoicism.
4. Failure to see this as an organic grassroots movement (all the more confirmed by its chaotic, aimless and disparate membership) and dismissing it as "imported" also comes across as elitist and out of touch. Perfect breeding ground for a populist to rise up.. which can be nipped in the bud with decisive response and dialogue.
5. Letting it drag out this long makes the government look ineffective and lame.
6. Not using a minister or party leader as an interface with the protestors or even selecting someone from the opposition parties is a failure of leadership and political tactics.
By using a proxy, Arden would still maintain control over the situation, yet not be directly involved and still work towards a resolution, instead of letting it drag out. Then she and even the opposition party would come out on top. But now there's a potential that someone else will steal the political thunder and credit (if it ends well).
She has misread and miss-stepped at every point of this protest.
She needed to send out a Labour MP (Hipkins as Covid Minister would have been best) on day one. She didn't.
Now all options point to a protester victory (even if Pyrrhic)
- She can't change narrative, as her rhetoric (and that of her cabinet) was/is too offensive and extreme.
- She can't use a proxy (especially not an opposition MP) because any positive change will be their victory, not hers. Conversely any negativity will be hers, not theirs.
- If she goes hard, she is a dictator.
- If she caves-in, then she was wrong.
- If she does nothing, then she clearly can't lead.
I sense a prolonged sit-in, that will only grow with each and every additional mistake the govt make.
Sometimes, an action is better than no action. And the longer she does not take action, the worse this will be.
Soon, there'll be enough anger and resentment on both sides (the protesters not being spoken to and locals fed up with the disruptions) and there'll be a clash.
What will the PM and the police do then? And what credibility will they have?
First step towards de-escalation is to make an example of Mallard - Have him apologise, and if he refuses to, fire him. Ignoring the protesters is the worst thing you can do - any negotiator will tell you that.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/02/housing-affordability-in-n…
CoreLogic said 48 percent of gross household income was now required service an 80-percent loan-to-value ratio mortgage, based on the average property value, with the mortgage over a 25-year term.
Yes this is definitely sustainable and definitely not insane.
CoreLogic said 48 percent of gross household income was now required service an 80-percent loan-to-value ratio mortgage, based on the average property value, with the mortgage over a 25-year term.
Do you ever read anything properly? My previous calculation was based on a 30 year mortgage months ago. Corelogic in this report is assuming a 25 year in this report months later.
In the mean time, mortgage rates rose and they shorten a 30 year mortgage to a 25 years for computation.
Looks like rodent math doesn't account for mortgage life cycles and reporting time-lines.
Or people are cottoning on that pushing out mortgage lengths to maintain a veneer of affordability is a transparent attempt to paper over the damage dipshit investors have caused to our living standards?
Mortgages used to be 25 years as standard. Don't piss your pants because people won't move the goalposts to suit your crappy argument.
I've got bad news for you about the kind of social unrest that will come with locking up 50% of people's gross incomes for 40 years, because that money sure as hell won't be spent in businesses that keep people employed.
Perfectly easy to be smug about it now, different story when some methed out maniac is standing at the end of your bed with a knife because they need a fix but can't pay rent. Good luck bro, you'll need it.
That is nuts. The first home is a starter home. People need time to buy a home, pay it off, buy a better home, pay it off, and save enough money for 30 years of retirement. How are they going to do that if they exhaust all their financial resources on small house with a 35-40 year mortgage.
How do you come up with this?
“40 years is only half the average life span”
You do realise that the first 20 years is childhood right? Those 5 year olds aren’t saving for their retirement at primary school.
The working lifespan is about 22-65 for most people, just 43 years. So simple maths, if you have a 40 year mortgage for your first two bedroom starter home, you won’t have time for a second home let alone saving for retirement.
‘People still manage to retire’
Yes, the entitled boomer generation is able to retire. They had dirt cheap houses, no student loan, lowered their own taxes while placing user pays on younger generations, they support a much smaller population through retirement (around 1:5 ratio compared to the coming 1:2). When considering the madness you are proposing you need to calculate the costs for this generation. It’s already hitting fertility and consumption as others point out. House prices are a massive tax on the whole economy and they will either reduce or bring it to its knees. Nobody can afford to be a policeman or a nurse because if you don’t earn over $120,000 you can’t afford a roof over year head.
That's why rental is a great alternative.
Based on 2020, the median household income was $86,576 and the median rent was $490.
Renting only costs 29% of household income.
I think that's an absolutely affordable housing option.
I feel like you're dangerously close to understanding why affordability stats are bullshit but just flat out refusing to get it.
Imagine the affordability stats if they were framed in terms of the income people actually have available to spend after tax/student loan and KS deductions. Jeez, I wonder what that would tell us about how easy it is to service a mortgage or save a deposit on take-home pay.
The problem is extending the mortgage 5 years does little to the weekly repayments. The savings are minimal when compared to the total cost of paying that amount for another 5 years. Did the math years ago and that's why I went for a 15 year mortgage, that extra $50 a week slashed years off the mortgage term.
Imagine if it was only say 25% and all that extra money could be spent in the economy on things like eating out and recreational activities. Maybe all these businesses wouldn't be crying out for support. Na mate, I'd rather give it to an Aussie bank as interest. What an absolute shit show.
And apparently in the US the average homebuyer loan size is hitting records.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/housing-mania-results-homebuyers-taki…
"A new report by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) caught our eye by highlighting an unfortunate reality of low-interest rates: while they initially make homebuying affordable for middle- and working-class Americans, cheap money flooding into the market for an extended period will cause housing affordability issues as home prices soar."
""Prospective buyers still face elevated sales prices in addition to higher mortgage rates. The heavier mix of conventional applications again contributed to another record average loan size at $453,000," said Joel Kan, an MBA economist."
"In a separate report, CoreLogic shows home prices climbed across the country as demand outstripped supply. In December, prices nationally jumped 18.5% year over year, one of the fastest increases in years. The housing boom is at an infection as buyers take on too much debt, many are priced out of markets, and others are forced to rent because of affordability issues.
When it comes to first-time homebuyers, the National Association of Realtors said their mortgage payments in the fourth quarter jumped to 25.6% of their household incomes, the highest in three years and up 3.2 percentage points from the same quarter last year. Homebuyers generally follow the 28/36 rule, a personal finance guide that limits how much money should go to housing costs and monthly debt payments, shouldn't exceed 28% of a household's monthly pre-tax income and 36% of total debt; this is also known as the debt-to-income ratio. The increase in debt service payments was mainly due to homebuyers purchasing homes at record high prices and locking in mortgage rates at higher levels."
In China, their currency is appreciating against the USD, now at ¥6.33 to the greenback. But it still has some way to go to reach the ¥6.06 level it was at in 2013.
China 3 USA 0 – Beijing inflicts a severe economic defeat on America
It is all getting a little out of hand for this government. Omicron is here it will not asked for your vax passport in fact as people check passports at bars restaurants coffee bars all this will do is help pass on virus. With over 90% of people double jabbed mandates are a waste of time, track and trace system is not being used as much because people don’t want to be lockdown for weeks as huge amount of people with omicron don’t know they have it. The government should be investing funds into healthcare paying good wages for health workers.
Family member at a A&E clinic tells me they nearly closed doors this week - not enough nurses available. Ended up with some behind the scenes deal with the few on site to do even more extra overtime - demanded and got more $ than mngt offered.
Swabbers also quitting - sick of being abused by public, rubbish thrown at them etc. The goodwill has been exhausted.
No idea why anyone would voluntarily work in Frontline Health. Unfortunately, the abuse isn't even really aimed at them. It is just they are the only ones around to actually hear it....
I mean, have you seen what happens if you try and raise any real issues with this Government?
European, Australian and US farmers paid for sequestering soil carbon but NZ farmers soil carbon is specifically excluded in the ETS - and the billions in carbon slush funds flow to largely foreign owned pine trees instead. A rural coup.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/116369097/foreign…
Paying down the current account deficit.
Notable the interim financial statements of the New Zealand Government - six months ended 31/12/21 recorded a net loss of $3,481 million on the Emissions Trading Scheme, only to be out done by an ACC loss totalling $4,102 million.
"In China, their currency is appreciating against the USD, now at ¥6.33 to the greenback. But it still has some way to go to reach the ¥6.06 level it was at in 2013. Interestingly, the yuan is still only used in 2.3% of all international trade, although that is up from 2.1% two years ago."
The appreciating USD on CNY further enable China room for monetary easing to uplift their economy. The US is now cornered on the economic front in terms of trade deficits and China will almost be the single sole beneficiary of US tightening.
With the rapid and advance development of RMB CBDC, we're expecting more rapid adoption of CNY in the global trade with the share taken out from USD.
Maybe what is happening in Wellington will throw a more intense spotlight on our government actions and lack of . If the protesters ramp up in the next few days then the government may have some really serious problems, a four year term won't be the worry, surviving a three year one will be front and centre .
Friends in Queenstown getting slammed by this outbreak. Told them to quit whining and suck it up. I do sympathise but also remind them that we in Auckland had months on end of lockdowns while they went about every day lives like normal. Time for them to have a go I guess?
Have you been to Queenstown recently? They are really struggling. I was there over Auckland Anniversary weekend through to Waitangi and in spite of the holidays I've never seen it so dead. Eateries empty at lunch, pubs and restaurants a third full on Friday night , and every other shop had a "help wanted" sign on it. It's not just Auckland and Northland feeling the pain. (From an Aucklander)
For businesses it's worse. When we were locked down in L4 businesses got financial support from the Govt to keep above water. That support is gone and whilst technically they are open to the public, the punters and foreign workers who they rely on for labour aren't there.
I have extreme doubt that retail businesses shut under L4 were better off than Queenstown businesses at Red/Orange. Remember, under the rules of the business support scheme, any business anywhere in the country qualified for support of they were adversely affected by Auckland being locked down - not just Auckland.
I have interests in five businesses in QT. Red light just as crap as level four. We have a far different visitors/locals ratio than most localities. Under Red Light government ignorance, dissonance, and insults, like the Minister of Tourism being here for a week and refusing to talk to any locals beggars belief. Each week some more businesses pull the pin. The only cheerful bit has been our extremely successful Vaxfree market days.
Thanks for the insights at ground zero. I would have thought more Aucklanders would have been trying to get down to Qtown while they could but maybe there is less money to go around at the moment and trips to resort destinations are the first thing cut from the budget.
I haven't been for about 1 year, but see regular images from town, it is very quiet right now. It's almost like a town that relies on tourism for 95% of its revenue doesn't do well in a pandemic and when everything is too expensive. They had a good run for 15-20 years bleeding tourists for every last cent and currently they are not having a good time. Everything ebbs and flows, they will be back at some stage. Financially strong/prudent/innovative business's will survive and the others will perish. Such is the way of capitalism.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127788592/majority-of-homeowners-ahead…
This is interesting. Average time ahead on repayments is 11 months
I'm gonna have to look at this...might be a decent investment if we get a drop--
You can pre-buy up to 1,000 litres of Z Diesel, Z91 Unleaded or ZX95 Premium Unleaded at a time, and store it in a virtual fuel tank until you are ready to use it. You can purchase up to 12,000 litres across all fuel types in a rolling 12-month period.
David,
Last week's American jobless claims rose marginally to 238,000 for the 7 days, taking the total number of people on these benefits to 1.975 mln and below pre-pandemic levels because more people found jobs or their benefits expired. The seasonally-adjusted level is near an all-time low.Last week's American jobless claims rose marginally to 238,000 for the 7 days, taking the total number of people on these benefits to 1.975 mln and below pre-pandemic levels because more people found jobs or their benefits expired.
I wouldn't characterize these government payments as "benefits"-any more than US Social Security as "benefits". Each Employer (or Self Employed) pays into State Unemployment Insurance Fund. From 1.5% of Payroll up to 15% of Payroll if that Employer has adverse layoff history. Only employees whose employers contributed to Unemployment Insurance received this compensation when out of work. Unlike this country it is not means tested--if your partner is still making good money you still get your "insurance payment". Minnesota for instance is just repaying the Federal Treasury $2.7 Billion borrowed to refill their Trust Fund due to 20% of all workers during height of Covid were laid off. However, eventually Employers will repay and refill the Insurance Trust Fund for each State as happened last time --2008 to 2013 during the GFC. This system results in much higher or lower payments when you are laid off--depends what you contributed through your employer (or you the Self Employer). 30 million GIG workers in 2020 of-most of whom were non-compliant and not paying their State Unemployment Taxes found they were out of luck--and had to wait for Congress to pass a bail them out with a "benefit" or they would have been on the bread lines.
Like retirement -with Social Security -its is users pay, and unemployment and retirement do not come out of General Tax Funds--rather pools of Insurance Trust Funds.
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