Breakfast briefing; Commodities to the fore

Business / news

US eyes on upcoming CPI data; commodities for the green economy race higher; fusion gets big tick; Aussie mood stays dark; Aussie courts back gig contracts; UST 10yr 1.91%; oil stable but gold up; NZ$1 = 66.9 USc; TWI-5 = 71.2

10th Feb 22, 7:25am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news its a great time to be a commodities producer, hard or soft.

Firstly, the latest USDA WASDE review continues its reporting of lower US milk output and higher prices. Beef prices are unchanged in this February report.

There was another US Treasury bond tender overnight, for their 10 year bond, and this one was very well supported too. And it brought a much higher median yield, at 1.85% pa, compared to the 1.65% a month ago.

Markets are waiting for tomorrow's US consumer price index number. They expect a headline January level of 7.3%, up from 7.0% in December (and a 'core' rate of 5.5%, up from 5.0% in December). Outside these expectations, expect some market repricing. Locally, financial markets are awaiting Friday's RBNZ inflation expectations survey results.

But today is all about commodities.

The Aluminium price has raced higher to record levels. It has doubled in price since mid-2020. It is likely to go much higher because China (and others) are shutting capacity to meet environmental standards. Those left are in a prime position because this metal is key to many new technology driven 'green' products (like Tesla cars). Also rising for similar reasons are cobalt, nickel, and tin. Zinc is getting up there too. Surprisingly, coal is also in hot demand and its price is near its record high as France decides to use it rather than Russian gas or oil.

The spot carbon price rose sharply yesterday locally to now be almost $81/NZU. That's an +8% rise - in just one week. The background here is that soaring gas prices encouraged more power companies (in Europe) to swap to carbon-heavy coal, resulting in higher emissions and much higher demand for these carbon-offset contracts

And speaking of commodities and energy, we should note that overnight a test site for the giant ITER fusion facility being built in the south of France, produced results that almost guarantee nuclear fusion is now viable. These results transform fusion from 'a possibility' to an important future energy source.

In Australia, the apparent 'improvement' in their pandemic numbers was expected to improve the mood in the latest Westpac MI consumer sentiment survey. But it didn't. Opening up isn't a mood-changer, it seems. Australian consumers have moved on to worry about inflation and higher interest rates.

And there was a notable High Court decision in Australia out yesterday where they confirmed and earlier ruling: "The only kinds of rights with which courts of justice are concerned are legal rights. The employment relationship with which the common law is concerned must be a legal relationship. It is not a social or psychological concept like friendship." That means that judges can't set aside a contract just on some external social view. It also means that, in Australia, owner-operator, or contractor agreements will not be overturned to become employment agreements. The gig economy gets a boost from this ruling. And labour is confirmed as a contractable commodity.

In NSW, there has been a rise to 10,312 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 71,001 active locally-acquired cases, and another 20 daily deaths. There are now 1,905 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 9,908 more new infections yesterday. There are now 57,022 active cases in that state - and there were 21 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 6,902 new cases and 24 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 1671 yesterday and 2 deaths. The ACT has 475 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 601 new cases and two deaths. Overall in Australia, 31,113 new cases were reported.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.91% and -5 bps lower. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +58 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +91 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also a little flatter at +189 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -3 bps at 2.09%. The China Govt ten year bond is +1 bps at 2.75%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is +3 bps higher at 2.73%.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is up +1.0% in early Tuesday afternoon trade. Overnight, most European markets were up more than +1.5% although London was 'only' +1.0%. Yesterday Tokyo was up +1.1%, and Hong Kong rose +2.1%. Shanghai managed a +0.8% rise. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session up +1.1% while the NZX50 ended up +0.9%.

The price of gold starts today at US$1833/oz and up another +US$6 from this time yesterday.

However oil prices are little-changed at just over US$88/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$90.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will open today +½c firmer at 66.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at our lower level of 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 58.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today just over 71.2 as commodity currencies gain some favour.

The bitcoin price is +2.4% higher since this time yesterday and now at US$44,128. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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146 Comments

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 7:34am 1644431667

labour is confirmed as a contractable commodity.

How could it not be.

And are China really shutting operable Aluminium smelters due to environment reasons?

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 7:46am 1644432361

It is a way to drive living standards down. Business's are proven to use 'contracting' as a way to avoid employment costs. They take on people as 'contractors' but only pay them a normal wage. This wage does not then account for sick leave normal annual leave, ACC levies, work wear, hours of work beyond 40 and so on, make the people virtual slaves as their costs suck away most of their income. It is a practice that should be outlawed.

To earn around $50k per year the basic hourly rate is just over $24, but just to account for leave (4 weeks and 10 days sick) this needs to increase to over $27 and then there are all the other costs.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 7:51am 1644432660

When I was young I was employed as a contractor for doing a normal job, it really sucked. I got caught out because I didn't even know about paying acc and because I was late paying my acc, it wrecked my credit rating for a few years.

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 7:58am 1644433118

Oh yes, acc using debt collectors to communicate with their clients. And leaving a note on their credit rating, even when it was acc mistake or in action that caused the problem.

by Beanie | 10th Feb 22, 8:02am 1644433358

As a rule of thumb add 20% to a wage rate to get equivalent rate on contract. It does vary a bit depending on specific details.

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 8:06am 1644433582

I would recommend adding at least 50%. not all costs are predictable.

The use of 'contracting' will also mean that job security is limited to non-existent and that on it's own is worth another amount.

by Beanie | 10th Feb 22, 8:19am 1644434340

Good luck justifying adding 50% unless you are in a profession or working for a government agency. But yes you lose the protections as an employee, these vary between almost none to substantial depending on the employer.

On contract there can be legitimate tax deductible expenses you can claim v none as an employee.

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 8:15am 1644434125

If the employer is trying to shaft you by insisting on you being a 'contractor' but refusing to accept your offered rate, perhaps you should reconsider whether or not you want to work for them. They would not be looking to be a good employer.

by refactornz | 10th Feb 22, 9:16am 1644437783

In the tech world it's generally much more profitable to be a contractor. You don't have to deal with office politics either.

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 8:29am 1644434942

Job security these days is only as good as the notice period in your contract.

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 8:45am 1644435923

New house down the road built by young builder, LBP but only just, out of his depth. Relied on obtaining support from an employment agency. Saved him the paperwork one supposes and also rescued a few cock ups undoubtedly. But boy oh boy there was an ever changing work force and some of them not particularly welcome in the neighbourhood. Needless to say the house not completed for a long time, and then, many ongoing issues.

by linklater01 | 10th Feb 22, 8:39am 1644435584

murray86,

I have been following this quite closely for some time. Companies like Mainfreight, Freightways, the Post office and many others call their van and truck drivers Independent Contractors, but they are nothing of the sort. The terms under which they work are laid down by the company and while some may do very well, they are in my view, employees and should be classed as such.

Indeed, a couple of years ago, in the case of Leota v Parcel Express, the court found that he was an employee. It was considered sufficiently important for Freightways to have people in court throughout the proceedings. I am surprised that the IR has not yet stepped in.

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 9:27am 1644438466

Yes that case was in the back of my mind when i wrote these comments, as well as the experiences of a few people i know. People should be careful.

by Squishy | 10th Feb 22, 8:40am 1644435602

And are China really shutting operable Aluminium smelters due to environment reasons?

Yes. Aluminium takes a huge amount of energy to produce, which in China is fueled by coal, and is a low margin product. It isn't strategically important to be a major producer either for business or defence.

Consequently they're happy to taper production and outsource those emissions elsewhere. Wouldn't surprise me if the more modern plants where packed up and sent to Africa so that the emissions can be outsourced while profits aggregate back to China.

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 7:42am 1644432149

I wonder if this southern California omicron data was plugged in to the model that holds our country to ransom?

52,297 Cases, 88 admitted, 7 ICU, 0 ventilator, 1 death. Length of hospital stay, 3.4 days - 70% less than Delta

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 8:10am 1644433801

The mandates are the only way to prevent further restrictions - Trudeau

by theglc | 10th Feb 22, 10:45am 1644443129

Trudeau, he truly is a vile character

by dumbthoughts | 10th Feb 22, 11:25am 1644445505

What do you expect when your dad is actually Fidel Castro? ;)

by JKB | 10th Feb 22, 11:34am 1644446041

Justin Trudeau-Castro

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 3:23pm 1644459789

Justin Trudeau-Castro-Jagger-?

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 8:13am 1644433992

Perhaps you should check this article out Profile? It identifies that overall, there is a 55% increase in the risk of serious cardiac issues in people who have caught COVID and 'recovered'. Some salient quotes; "In a period starting 30 days after initial infection, and up to a year later, COVID patients were 72 percent more likely to experience coronary artery disease compared to those without SARS-CoV-2 infection. They were also 52 percent more likely to have a stroke and 63 percent more likely to suffer a heart attack." and “… most remarkably, people who have never had any heart problems and were considered low risk are also developing heart problems after COVID-19,” said Al-Aly. “Our data showed an increased risk of heart damage for young people and old people; males and females; Blacks, whites and all races; people with obesity and people without; people with diabetes and those without; people with prior heart disease and no prior heart disease; people with mild COVID infections and those with more severe COVID who needed to be hospitalized for it.”

Bottom line - don't catch it, and don't spread it.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/heart-cardiovascular-long-covid-d…

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 8:49am 1644436182

Covid has moved on bro - that article is not about omicron. These papers might give you some hope. I agree with you last sentence. Perhaps the laws around the spread of covid could be changed to match the laws around the spread of HIV?

Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this cross-sectional analysis of a large, population-based French cohort suggest that persistent physical symptoms after COVID-19 infection may be associated more with the belief in having been infected with SARS-CoV-2 than with having laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection. Further research in this area should consider underlying mechanisms that may not be specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A medical evaluation of these patients may be needed to prevent symptoms due to another disease being erroneously attributed to “long COVID.”

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/27858…

Children in the control group experienced significantly more concentration difficulties, headache, muscle and joint pain, cough, nausea, diarrhea and fever than SARS-CoV-2 infected. In most children ‘long COVID’ symptoms resolved within 1–5 months.

Conclusions: Long COVID in children is rare and mainly of short duration.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00431-021-04345-z

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 9:26am 1644438381

You're obfuscating Profile, which I find most conspiracy plunkers do. This study reviewed cases of people who had tested positive for COVID. You know what that is? A clinical test. So this is not people who just claimed they had it, but were proven to have.

But in the end I don't believe we can continually be given the mRNA vaccine as a booster, and we should quickly dial back to the NovaVax one as a booster, probably annually. But we also MUST stop spreading it. This sucker is much more dangerous than a cold or the flu.

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 9:48am 1644439726

Your lazy smear doesn't change the fact that the paper is not about the Omicron strain. What is your smear for the French and Danish papers? And what is is conspiratorial about linking some omicron data anyway? Try and keep it more classy old chap.

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 10:12am 1644441157

All right then - the first is about psychosomatic claims from people who claim to have had COVID (any strain) with no evidence of the actual infection. There is little indication that the claimed symptoms are real. But thee is a cohort in the population who just love to be sick - professional victims. The second is about children catching COVID (again any strain), and does identify that a small number do suffer long term last impacts. Again this is not a counter point to the article I referenced. But I do note that statistical analysis can usually be tilted to support almost any argument, but a 55% out come goes way beyond any statistical variation.

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 8:57am 1644436664

Interesting interview with Israeli immunologist. Amazing for a vaccine given EUA they couldn't ascertain basics like whether it prevented transmission or not before rolling it out on the general population.

"Professor Cyrille Cohen is head of Immunology at Bar Ilan University and a member of the advisory committee for vaccines for the Israeli Government. In a wide-ranging and forthright interview, the Professor tells Freddie Sayers:

The Green Pass / vaccine passport concept is no longer relevant in the Omicron era and should be phased out (he expects it to be in short order in Israel)
He and his colleagues were surprised and disappointed that the vaccines did not prevent transmission, as they had originally hoped
The biggest mistake of the pandemic in Israel was closing schools and education
Widespread infection is now an inevitable part of future immunity — otherwise known as herd immunity
Omicron has accelerated the pandemic into the endemic phase, in which Covid will be “like flu”

https://unherd.com/thepost/israeli-vaccine-chief-we-have-made-mistakes/

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 11:24am 1644445447

I'm not sure if definitions changed or not, but everyone expected a vaccine to offer immunity, which is reasonable but what we get as kids isn't called vaccination it's called immunisation and of great benefit because it gives immunity.

by linklater01 | 10th Feb 22, 9:41am 1644439271

murray86,

very interesting link. I have bookmarked it and will pass it on to others who think like profile. I find him fascinating. Obviously bright, but committed to a certain worldview which is predominantly the home of those to the Right of the political spectrum.

As well as being against all or almost all the measures that have been taken to subdue Covid in NZ, he denies or at least greatly downplays the reality of global warming. However, I have taken on the task of enlightening him on that issue.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 9:56am 1644440182

Worldviews aren't diseases. Also, note another interesting link:

https://effectiviology.com/backfire-effect-facts-dont-change-minds/

by PineTreez | 10th Feb 22, 10:24am 1644441895

Yes, I've done likewise.

I have a brother who, despite needing a quad bypass during the last year is still determined to aquire his 'immunity' via natural infection.

I've tried and failed many times to reason with him, and am totally lost as to why a guy with some background in science can buy into some of the anti vax nonsense, to the point that he gives some credence to the 'microcircuitry in the vaccine' nonsence.

There's definitely some strange psychological BS going on within his head. He's also anti lockdown, anti mandate, anti mask, despite the risk he may pose to himself and his very elderly mother.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 11:35am 1644446151

It would be interesting to know if the long term affects are different for the vaccinated.

Both of you pose the same risk to your elderly mother and at this point the vaxed have the greatest chance of spreading it, not the unvaxed.

This virus came from a germ warfare lab in China. The Chinese seem to be taking it very seriously indeed. It's an out of control living weapon that is indestructible but so far, for NZ, the prevention has been worse than the disease.

by Carlos67 | 10th Feb 22, 12:02pm 1644447772

You are correct but the problem is only more time will revel how bad the way we have handled this in NZ. What we have seen is the immediate highly visible impact of business shutting down and increased inequity but the mental cost of this will take years to play out and will be more than likely hidden by the media. We still do not know if any long term effects from the vax and continual boosters exist yet.

by dollar_bill | 10th Feb 22, 12:10pm 1644448257

Germ warfare lab - lol - shouldn't you be in parliament grounds taking on the cops?

by Zachary Smith | 10th Feb 22, 12:53pm 1644450794

I had a good old belly laugh as well.

by blobbles | 10th Feb 22, 10:49am 1644443371

This is a great article, thanks Murray. Shows exactly what most smart people should have expected, once we knew about long COVID. That the effects from getting COVID are spread over years and are long term, further evidence to support vaccination. Sure 1 in 2 million or so die of being vaccinated, but that's a hell of a lot better than the percentages indicated in the article...

"Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis is particularly high, estimated between 18- and 21-fold higher following SARS-CoV-2 infection,” the new Australian study noted. “Elevated risk have also been shown for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between 3- and 6-fold, ischaemic stroke at 3- to 10-fold, and venous thromboembolism at up to 8-fold. Notably, these risk estimates are higher than those imposed by other viral respiratory infections and vaccination."

I still reckon people are just scared of needles, so creating echo chambers of delusion to cover it up... it's the only logical explanation I can think of as to why people abandon logic.

by theglc | 10th Feb 22, 10:50am 1644443421

maybe the bottom line is dont expose yourself to the covid 19 spike protein at all if you can help it

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 8:32am 1644435165

You have to remember the 900 000 Americans that have died from Covid is probably largely the most vulnerable. The difference now is that it is healthy and young people getting omicron now.

Its a different enviroment to NZ

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 8:47am 1644436047

Shhh, people don't like it when you bring up that people die due to covid. It makes the mood all dour, none of the people I speak to that are alive have any issues with covid.

by northman46 | 10th Feb 22, 9:09am 1644437369

If only there was some sort of vaccine to lower the risk.

by dumbthoughts | 10th Feb 22, 9:28am 1644438522

And if only everyone who wanted it (or who didn't want it but got forced to have it anyway) had been given the opportunity to take it.

And if only everyone who was really worried about Covid had been given the opportunity to have another dose, just to make doubly sure they'll be fine.

Wouldn't that be nice? Then we might get to move on with our lives.

by northman46 | 10th Feb 22, 9:50am 1644439824

And I'm sure you'll be all open to relaxing the rules once boosters and kids hit their targets in a few months.

Just before the next variant, or the kids boosters, or our next boosters.

Two shots for summer, chur!

by dumbthoughts | 10th Feb 22, 9:57am 1644440224

Come off it lol.

The goalposts will simply be moved further and further.

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 3:39pm 1644460798

Well the PM reported under a headline this am, in Stuff confirming that the mandates will be removed when they are no longer needed. I kid you not. Firstly, if authentic, why would you utter such an aimless platitude and why would a journalist write it up as a headline. Of course it might all be satirical, in the frolicsome comic style perfected by the previous Labour PM.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 11:40am 1644446435

pfft 94% vaxed and you are blaming 6% of the pop. for ruining your life. Get real, we've all had the shots and still nothing changes. Blaming the unvaxed didn't age very well.

by dumbthoughts | 10th Feb 22, 11:48am 1644446890

My comment was very much meant tongue-in-cheek (as in 'everybody who wants a vax has been able to get one, it's time to move on').

Sorry if it didn't come across that way.

I don't blame the unvaccinated at all. Their choice, and I don't agree with the mandates. The only "hostage takers" are the government. As the UK has demonstrated, you can get rid of restrictions and go back to normal as/when you please, if there is political will to do so.

by LASSET | 10th Feb 22, 2:33pm 1644456811

1806 people dead from Covid in the past 7 days in the UK.

Feel free to ignore it, or accept the risks, that's fine.

But no country is just "getting back to normal" anytime soon.

by theoutlawtorn | 10th Feb 22, 4:17pm 1644463064

Deaths within 28 days of positive test

Latest data provided on 9 February 2022

Daily
276
Last 7 days
1,526
There has been a decrease of -298(-16.3%) compared to the previous 7 days.

Rate per 100,000 people: 2.2

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Edit: For context

In the week ending 28 January 2022 (Week 4), 12,401 deaths were registered in England and Wales; this was 375 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 3) and 9.3% below the five-year average (1,269 fewer deaths). [My emphasis - I thought this was very interesting when we consider COVID and excess mortality)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarr…

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 11:37am 1644446256

Calling BS on that, 900,000 Americans have died while infected with covid, covid didn't kill all of those people.

by Carlos67 | 10th Feb 22, 12:07pm 1644448025

The "Experts" in the USA still cannot figure out why the Americans are still dying in disproportionate numbers of 2000-3000 a day. Well I'm no expert but I can tell you its because they are an obese nation. I have never seen a country as full of obese people as the USA and that was back in 1990, it was totally shocking.

by dollar_bill | 10th Feb 22, 12:15pm 1644448548

Private institutions receiving public funds might have something to do with it.

by Pa1nter | 10th Feb 22, 12:28pm 1644449291

They also have a low vaccinate rate, less compliance to mitigation measures, and an unwavering desire for "freedom" at any cost.

by False economies | 10th Feb 22, 7:45am 1644432348

These results transform fusion from 'a possibility' to a viable future energy source.

while a positive step forward that seems a little optimistic based on the actual result. it still needs to be scaled up...

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 8:07am 1644433670

Why bother with solar panels, soon we will have fusion power!

by Squishy | 10th Feb 22, 8:30am 1644435044

Would a fusion reactor be allowed in New Zealand or would it violate the Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act of 1987? My thoughts are that it could be viewed as a weapon so would be prohibited.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 9:22am 1644438130

Simple. Get rid of the nuclear free law. What has it really done? Prevented some ships coming into harbour just in case they had a meltdown and irradiated the ports?

When was the last nuclear ship accident? Gave some people warm fuzzies because cold war bad?

by PineTreez | 10th Feb 22, 10:32am 1644442335

There are a number of nuclear subs lost in the oceans... and probably more that we don't get told of.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 11:36am 1644446167

Separate issue. The fear was that there would be a meltdown in a port in NZ. Lost subs in the middle of the Atlantic don't concern most people.

by Rob Reid | 10th Feb 22, 9:40am 1644439223

Yes probably. A weapon that produces waste helium, a known lethal explosive planet-destroying nightmare.

by Nzdan | 10th Feb 22, 1:54pm 1644454445

Run a bypass from the waste outlet and feed to a balloon filling outlet. Crisis averted.

by PineTreez | 10th Feb 22, 10:30am 1644442227

The fusion reactors are working with hydrogen and deuterium, a haevy form of hydrogen with and extra neutron, fusing them together into Helium.

There's no radioactive hazard or waste products. While deuterium is somewhat unstable at a nuclear level, it exists naturally, and is reported to be plentiful.

by Rob Reid | 10th Feb 22, 9:38am 1644439082

Yes, and looks like fusion is still 25 years away, as it has always been:

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Fusion-energy-record-at-JET…

"The European Fusion Development Agreement outlined a goal of bringing fusion electricity to the grid by 2050."

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 11:42am 1644446551

Hahaha yeah, this is classic fusion, always 25 years in the future, has been since the 60s or earlier.

by dollar_bill | 10th Feb 22, 12:21pm 1644448917

oh crap - should have read the content

by Let me be Frank | 10th Feb 22, 1:33pm 1644453187

And even the scientists conducting the test 'have to believe' fusion produced power will be a reality in their lifetime....and too late to avoid carbon induced climate impacts.

A low energy 5 second test in a lab is not a commercial power station.

by Nifty1 | 10th Feb 22, 8:00am 1644433205

ASB boss confident tough new lending rules will be eased so fewer home loan applicants are 'knocked out'

ASB has rejected about 7 per cent of home loan applicants who would have qualified before new lending regulations were introduced

What a joke...it doesn't sound like David Clark was calling the shots in the meeting. Folding in over a 6%-7% decline rate just after 2 months...

The show must go on...

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/127724784/asb-boss-confident-tough-new-l…

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 8:17am 1644434238

Another example of the Banks using their muscle to bully the Government. Somewhat better worded and more robust regulation is required.

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 8:53am 1644436425

Slightly ironic. The government being bullied that is. Presently our government has been exposed as bullying businesses, stripping RATs off them. As always a bully is very mighty, until they meet a bigger bully.

by Carinaz | 10th Feb 22, 9:06am 1644437189

Murray86, This government is smart, they create a situation where it seems that they are being bullied but reality is that they allow themselves to be bullied as they too actually behind public postering (political necessity) are in favour of what they are been blackmailed into.

They are too arrogant with absolute power to be bullied unless they want to.

by murray86 | 10th Feb 22, 9:21am 1644438094

Sort of agree with you re most business's but banks are a different fish. Eisenhower tried to rein them in in the 50's and failed miserably. To all intents and purposes the Government (and most world governments) have abrogated their power and responsibilities in at least part of the economy handing it to the banks, which are PRIVATE business's too. The Government (all iterations of it) have neither the courage or the political will to dial them back effectively. This is an example of the banks pushing back. Make no mistake the bank managers are smart cookies and they understand exactly what was intended by the government. They have just chosen to interpret in a way that makes the Government look bad to the unthinking average Joe Cabbage. This housing crisis, up front is caused 98% by the banks, but behind the scenes from a longer term failure of the Government.

by Carinaz | 10th Feb 22, 9:38am 1644439123

Agree

by Audaxes | 10th Feb 22, 9:09am 1644437361

Rationed markets are determined by the short- side principle: whichever quantity of demand or supply is smaller determines the outcome (as it is the smallest common denominator for transactions to take place; see Muellbauer & Portes, 1978). Disequilibrium and rationed markets create circumstances that immediately bring economics and politics together: the short side of any rationed market has allocation powers. In other words, the short side has the power to pick and choose with whom it is doing business and how resources are allocated, irrespective of the transaction price. In equilibrium, it is apparently neutral market forces that produce politically palliative outcomes. In disequilibrium, the reality of discrete and arbitrary decisions by allocators (read banks) becomes visible — allocators who can, if they wish, exploit their selection power to extract non-market benefits or ‘rents’...Link

by Notgreedykiwi | 10th Feb 22, 9:27am 1644438443

Private banking shouldn't get any concessions from the government. They should be tightly controlled and should have to report their financial health every month.

They are creating a society which is slave to debt and basically slaves to the banks. We are a small nation and we should take control of our financial systems. We are being fleeced by these profit controlled financial corporations. Their only motive is to have additional profits every quarter and they will do anything to make it happen. By hook or by crook.

But I am sure the current government which talks a lot about protecting the poor and vulnerable but do not really act on anything they say.

Public needs to take action in their own hands since the government they chose is not acting.

by dollar_bill | 10th Feb 22, 12:28pm 1644449333

you're welcome to use Kiwibank for your fleecing and daily floggings

by chebbo | 10th Feb 22, 7:55am 1644432908

Somewhat ironic that the push for "green" technologies in the west creates massive demand for environmentally destructive commodities elsewhere.

It's a bit like our recycling scheme really - out of sight, out of mind, and we can go on consuming with a squeaky-clean conscience.

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 8:04am 1644433461

Agree on the recycling, but EVs etc are been blamed for an overall increase in consumer demand. If it was EVs causing it, copper would be way up, but it's not. All those toys and gadgets have way more batteries in them than EVs do.

by chebbo | 10th Feb 22, 8:15am 1644434154

Nobody is claiming that those toys and gadgets are environmentally friendly, though.

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 8:29am 1644434972

EVs Claim they are enviromentally friendly because they are.

by chebbo | 10th Feb 22, 8:36am 1644435395

They are if the only place you measure environmental impact is at the exhaust pipe.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 8:48am 1644436131

Solardb - incorrect, 100%.

They may be more environmentally friendly than ICE vehicles (if you can find a way of conflating exhaust-gases with resource-extraction and disposal pollution) but they are NOT environmentally friendly.

A very important point.

by Advisor | 10th Feb 22, 9:41am 1644439272

This government's ban on O&G exploration will start to bite soon with a 20% increase in price coming for piped gas. More inflation on the cards; let's see how much more can the squeezed middle take.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127731982/consumers-set-to-pay-nearly-…

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 11:02am 1644444165

nothing is evr 100% correct or incorrect.

A Ev is more enviromentally friendly than a ice car. If somebody needs or wants a car , then having a EV is more enviromentally feindly than having a ICE. Therefore it is enviromentally friendly.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 11:44am 1644446651

Wrong, 100%

You conflate two different things - it's often done by those who need to convince themselves, but they go down a rabbit-hole of grotesque proportions. Indeed, this one has gobbled most of the GND types.

An EV is still environmentally unfriendly, just less so than an ICE car.

That does NOT make it environmentally friendly

by linklater01 | 10th Feb 22, 11:40am 1644446445

solarb,

I have an EV and have to disagree. Yes, they more environmentally friendly than ICE vehicles, but have you considered the construction process? They are made of metal, plastic, rubber and components ALL of which require fossil fuels.

Go and look at the process required for just the lithium in the battery. That's the irony of the green Revolution. It absolutely requires fossil fuels to make it happen. here is just one quote: "The irony of the Green Revolution is that for the short to medium term, we need a new supply of metals to be mined". Prof. Richard Herrington, Head of Earth Sciences at the Natural History Museum.

One more quote: Mining of metals is intimately dependent on fossil fuel based energy supply. Like all other industrial activities, without energy, mining does not happen". This comes from The Mining of Metals and the Limits to Growth report prepared for the Geological Survey of Finland.

by Hardly | 10th Feb 22, 12:18pm 1644448736

And ICE cars aren’t made out of ‘metal, plastic, rubber’.

by dollar_bill | 10th Feb 22, 12:38pm 1644449932

Same with bicycles - I mean even walking to the shop uses up part of the environment. Even if we go back to being hunting and gathering nomads, humans will always be environmentally "unfriendly". We don't even recycle ourselves very well.

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 12:54pm 1644450859

Good podcast on national radio last night . (just before 10 pm ). Pointed out fossil fuels enabled the advancement of mankind. That 1/4 o f all agricultural land was used to grow food for horses before the use of fossil fuels .

I strike this over and over in the wannabe greenies. I dont point out to my customers that they are wasting there time installing "green" solar on thier bach , because they use more energy driving down from Auckland in thier monster suv. They will do that anyway . We all see people driving to the recycling to drop off one plastic bottle.

Point is any improvement is worthwhile, and the defeatist arguments above are just excuses to do nothing.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 1:15pm 1644452158

I live on 300 watts of solar - don't equate my argument with 'doing nothing'.

But notice that the less you do, the better......

by Let me be Frank | 10th Feb 22, 1:37pm 1644453465

300 watts!!!...do you have an internet site where you outline how you achieve that?

by realterms | 10th Feb 22, 2:44pm 1644457449

Impressive. Cooking gas? Hot water?

by solardb | 10th Feb 22, 2:18pm 1644455881

good on you . But I do think your all or nothing comments can be taken by people as whats the point in doing anything.

by waymad | 10th Feb 22, 8:22am 1644434523

Perhaps we can reactivate the old Sb mine at Endeavour Inlet, to do our bit for the EV Revolution.....

by Squishy | 10th Feb 22, 8:47am 1644436057

Over the entire lifecycle of an EV it produces about half the carbon emissions of a petrol car. I would guesstimate it would be about 25% less carbon than a modern diesel.

It does depend on how you're producing the electricity though. If it's via coal or gas you may well be better off with the diesel.

by MortgageBelt | 10th Feb 22, 8:01am 1644433285

Red Light - the shadow lockdown with govt washing its hands / reducing small business support.

https://www.business.govt.nz/covid-19/financial-support-for-businesses/

by MortgageBelt | 10th Feb 22, 8:39am 1644435599

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/461218/auckland-hospitality-busine…

Open letter from hospitality to Finance Minister re dire situation for SMEs

by Carinaz | 10th Feb 22, 8:04am 1644433462

Slight indication that house price growth is stalling sends RBNZ and Politicians to panic mode and enact LEAST REGRET policy :

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/127729981/nationals-plan-to-fix-home-loa…

Housing ponzi in NZ will continue as Government and Opposition both are on the same page. When in October 2020 was evident that house price is taking off, approach was wait and watch and now it has only been a month since indication are that pyramid ponzi may burst and both the opposition and government are ready to act overnight without any delay - No more wait and watch.

Best part, it is all done in the name to protect FHB.

Ask Labour and National party, whom are they supporting by removing restriction on free distribution of money : FHB or their partner in crime - Speculators ( So called Investors)

by Nifty1 | 10th Feb 22, 8:16am 1644434196

Pathetic really...the alarm bells are ringing on the housing market - rising interest rates, unsustainable prices, affordability woes... and our political parties are trying to take away responsible lending policies...

by Roy1 | 10th Feb 22, 8:40am 1644435646

Labour government will be quick to accept national party request as deep down they too are shit scared, what if the house price bonanza really stops.

Credit to Jacinda Arden that this time she is not talking about solving housing crisis but been open of supporting the growth.

Now only, she should not change her tune before election and be open like National party = Housing crisis is a good crisis.

by HouseMouse | 10th Feb 22, 9:53am 1644440031

The major parties are nearly identical.

Both Key and Ardern waxed on about sorting housing out before they were elected, because it was an awful problem.

Once in power, it's all about keeping prices steady and 'sustainable' and it's a 'sign of success'!!!.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 9:58am 1644440294

Ditto productivity. The one thing that would raise the living standards of the whole country and politicians ignore it once in power.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 8:06am 1644433613

'produced results that almost guarantee nuclear fusion is now a viable energy source.'

David, that's a lightweight PR video. Five seconds? We need to stick to facts:

Fact 1 - energy is a growing global problem.

Fact 2 - the transformation of EVERYTHING to electricity (outside of burning something, that's all we've got; something-to-electricity) in un-do-able now. Take a look around you - imagine how long it took to empirically add all that fossil-energy-dedicated infrastructure. Yet we are already starting to address supply-chain falterings (RNZ interview this morning re buffering/storage/capacitance).

Fact 3 - In 30 years, they're up to 5 seconds. Whoopee.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 8:19am 1644434372

I am going to put all my faith in this technology, it's practically guaranteed. With energy too cheap to meter we can fix anything!

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 8:52am 1644436371

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/385207.Powerdown

Chapter 6, from memory. 'Waiting for the magic elixir' ...........

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 9:29am 1644438543

Can someone explain to me how the little experiment in France managed to create temperatures 10x hotter than the sun's core? Surely a fusion reaction 1 billion times larger than earth produces more heat than the head of a pin fusion reaction?

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 9:53am 1644439990

Good question but they are correct; the sun is BIG, rather than intense.

Your question mixes 'hotter' with 'larger' and 'more'.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 10:27am 1644442057

That's what I want explained. The fusion reaction in the sun is caused by its gravity, which is immense enough to keep Jupiter from flying out of the solar system.

Is it analogous to how a massive house fire generates a massive amount of heat, but still won't be as hot per gram as a piece of magnesium?

by kiwimm | 10th Feb 22, 11:10am 1644444654

Fusion reactors typically use very large magnetic force (as opposed to gravitational force in stars) to compress the gas into a plasma so fusion can occur. Using this method, they can compress the gas more than the sun leading to a hotter burn (due to more interactions occurring in a smaller space)

by Noncents | 10th Feb 22, 11:11am 1644444704

My rough understanding (gained from a BBC article) is that it is due to pressure. The Sun's gravity creates fusion via pressure (With heat as an output)

We cannot create that level of pressure on earth. So we use a combination of magnetic fields and heat to initiate the reaction. So far less efficient, but the aim is that once started it becomes self sustaining, and in theory would then require less heat.

Disclaimer: I am not a nuclear scientist, astrophysicist, or anything else in that industry.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 11:56am 1644447390

That is basically the problem with fusion reactors, they can create a fusion reaction but they can't make it self sustaining. Nuclear bombs are fusion reactions and they have been around for some time now. A fusion reaction requires immense amounts of energy input to start, either from massive gravity on the sun or the fission reaction that starts a nuclear bomb, or the electro magnetic field in a fusion generator. The holy grail is a self sustaining fusion reaction where the energy released can be collected efficiently enough to both provide energy to sustain the fusion and produce an energy profit, only then can you have 'fusion power'.

by blobbles | 10th Feb 22, 12:39pm 1644449977

Yep, the big barrier is "sustained". Getting past about 1 second has been very difficult, while China has done it in one of their reactors, it wasn't really at fusion temps so didn't count. This one is at fusion temps for 5 seconds, so quite a big breakthrough. The gap between 1 and 5s is huge, bigger than the gap between 5s and 5 minutes...

by Rob Reid | 10th Feb 22, 10:16am 1644441395

To add to PDKs reply, the fusion guys are using intense magnetic fields to contain the reaction, but the sun relies on good old fashioned gravity to balance the outward pressure from the energy produced by it's fusion.

by linklater01 | 10th Feb 22, 11:44am 1644446642

pdk,

Spot on. David's enthusiasm has got the better of his judgement.

by dollar_bill | 10th Feb 22, 1:47pm 1644454053

still an interesting experiment that could lead to a fascinating future - as opposed to a dour one.

by Stanhay | 10th Feb 22, 8:11am 1644433883

Had an email in the am from our friendly fertiliser co op , backtracking on the near vertical fert price increase a week or two ago . Blaming market volatility etc .

Funny that I had heard anecdotally last week from the transport company that fert orders and spreading had basically ceased because it had become too dear . Great how our co ops look after us so well , no profiteering here.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 8:22am 1644434528

Switch to Ravensdown!

by CWBW | 10th Feb 22, 8:22am 1644434551

"The employment relationship with which the common law is concerned must be a legal relationship. It is not a social or psychological concept like friendship."

Looks like we can take a cue from our Aussie mates on how not to run the country's economy woke. Employers agree but are not obliged to offer work; employees agree but are not obliged to take on work- fair deal.

No one owes another a living, everybody goes to work and the same applies to buying a house.

There's no such thing as a 'social contract'; no one was asked and no one signed it- choice was not given, opinions were not sought and a few makes the call for everyone in its prescription thereby making it null and void in an open and progressive society.

Perhaps this is the root cause of the many problems we have in the country today.

by blobbles | 10th Feb 22, 11:55am 1644447357

"There's no such thing as a 'social contract'"

We should be be collating a bunch of CWBW's quotes. They are wide ranging from eugenics to economics to social sciences. And each is seemingly as horrific as the last. Not sure what planet CWBW lives on, obviously well off enough to think poor people are scum who aren't allowed to breed nor have any employment rights or rights to support that we get in civilised society. Are you a libertarian per chance CWBW? Icing on the cake...

by GV 27 | 10th Feb 22, 1:03pm 1644451381

Guess there's also no reason for disaffected young people not to kick your door in in the middle of the night and beat you to within an inch of your life either.

I'm not exactly sure someone with your worldview is well-placed to articulate what does and doesn't cut the mustard in a 'progressive' society given the regressive 'got mine' garbage you parrot here.

by keithwoodford | 10th Feb 22, 8:27am 1644434867

I doubt whether the increase in the carbon price (NZUs now at $81) has much to do with European gas and coal. Essentially it is an internal NZ market that has been taken over by speculators.

KeithW

by CWBW | 10th Feb 22, 8:47am 1644436058

I think it's more of longer term investors than trading by speculators who are buying the ETS.

The price floor is set firmly as no producers can avoid it as a cost of production with limited supply controlled by the central government. The Green movement continues and will continue to be the driving force behind the prices of ETS as the country's economy is substantially weighted on agriculture and farming.

This present an attractive opportunity for investors to buy and hold ETS units in the mid to long term.

While the government operates like OPEC on ETS issuance, the trading in the open market can be seen as operations whereby the sum of it's participants determine the forward prices in the secondary and tertiary markets.

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 8:48am 1644436092

It is an outstanding policy - unless you are a young sheep and beef farmer.

"The global temperature departure from average in January fell from December to what is essentially zero, at +0.03 °C (+0.05 °F)."

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 8:54am 1644436495

Obviously a good time to pick cherries.......

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 10:01am 1644440499

They haven't come for the cherry farms yet PDK!. Though given the spectacular returns evident in carbon bludging why would you take the risk on a cherry crop - when you could sit in Martha's Vineyard, in a warm virtue signal glow, and milk the NZ fuel user?

by Hardly | 10th Feb 22, 8:30am 1644435049

Michael Baker is complaining about low QR code scanning. I’m all for QR code scanning but since the government isn’t reporting the vast majority of locations of interest I don’t know why people would bother.

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 8:58am 1644436695

Exactly. Matters are a bureaucratic farce. If Joseph Heller was around he would have so much material from here, for a sequel to Catch 22.

by HouseMouse | 10th Feb 22, 10:11am 1644441098

Kafka and Huxley too.

by WhiskeyJack | 10th Feb 22, 12:03pm 1644447826

I've stopped scanning in, I really don't want to go through all the BS, I will avoid getting tested too if that is possible. 50% of cases don't even have symptoms and there is no prize for getting a positive test.

by FCM | 10th Feb 22, 12:07pm 1644448055

MB is just trying get more headlines. Most people got the Vax, two or three shots to get some sort of freedoms back, that was the whole point right, that's what we were told. So I've given up scanning in, whats the point, so I can get a text to say you've been location of interest self isolate for 10 days and get tested..no thanks Michael.

by Foxglove. | 10th Feb 22, 1:33pm 1644453223

Sir MB, in waiting. Don’t you know.

by LASSET | 10th Feb 22, 2:44pm 1644457450

You do realise the reporting of locations of interest, is for the people who DIDN'T scan in?

If you scanned in at the "wrong place wrong time" as it were, the app will notify you.

I'd prefer to know, so I don't infect my friends and family like a selfish idiot.

by Hardly | 10th Feb 22, 7:53pm 1644476030

I doubt they are sending notifications of the app and not bothering to put it on the website. I bet neither is happening.

by Beanie | 10th Feb 22, 9:10am 1644437433

Watching the live stream at parliament grounds. Hats off to the police for their handling of it so far.

by Whatwillhappen | 10th Feb 22, 9:16am 1644437780

almost guarantee nuclear fusion is now viable

Nuclear fusion is only 20 years away. And always will be.

Hope I'm wrong, because solar and wind aren't the solution to our problems unless pumped hydro sites grow on trees all over the world.

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 9:22am 1644438153

A company backed by Amazon's Jeff Bezos is set to build a large-scale nuclear fusion demonstration plant in Oxfordshire.

Canada's General Fusion is one of the leading private firms aiming to turn the promise of fusion into a commercially viable energy source.

The new facility will be built at Culham, home to the UK's national fusion research programme.

It won't generate power, but will be 70% the size of a commercial reactor.

General Fusion will enter into a long-term commercial lease with the UK Atomic Energy Authority following the construction of the facility at the Culham campus.

While commercial details have not been disclosed, the development is said to cost around $400m.

It aims to be operational by 2025.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57512229

MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

New superconducting magnet breaks magnetic field strength records, paving the way for practical, commercial, carbon-free power

https://news.mit.edu/2021/MIT-CFS-major-advance-toward-fusion-energy-09…

by bender | 10th Feb 22, 4:32pm 1644463958

Since the country's village idiots have congregated at the Parliament Building, there is the opportunity to gather them up and ship them to an island that can never be predator-free or to their natural home, Epsom.

by powerdownkiwi | 10th Feb 22, 10:55am 1644443723

Salt them away, in other words?

Trouble is; they'll breed.

by blobbles | 10th Feb 22, 11:38am 1644446339

There's some hilarious statements coming out, like:

"Look around you, there's no pandemic. These (masks) are the pandemic."

I aren't sure how much more stupid you could get.

And it sounds like many of them want to execute people in the media. You can imagine if these people got their wish and they were put into power, how quickly the country would descend into a COVID ridden basket case... also of note is the sprinkling of gang members throughout the crowd, plus the protestor infighting... and the guy holding the sign that says natural immunity is 99.6% effective. Which is bulldust, not borne out by any stats. In fact the sister of a co worker in Ireland has caught every strain of it and is on her second round of Omicron.

by rastus1 | 10th Feb 22, 12:16pm 1644448588

The well intentioned but misguided will soon clear off as they start to realise they are on the side of bullies, gangsters and maori cause seekers who just like a fight.

by profile | 10th Feb 22, 12:19pm 1644448769

They are stupid - they should have protested against capitalism and then they could have stayed there for months like the trendy GFC Occupy movement in 2011 or camped out some private land owned by Fletchers and claimed it was theirs. . Now, where did I put my double standard?

by blobbles | 10th Feb 22, 5:21pm 1644466871

You are conflating people that have legitimate grievances (one against inequality, the other against a native peoples long standing argument about land) with people that have decided they are against the government for any reason they can find, many of them made up, with a few legitimate ones sprinkled in there to make the others seem more legitimate. If they were only against vaccine mandates, then go for it. But they seem to be protesting everything and anything, the media, three waters, the governments response to COVID, vaccine mandates, even protesting COVID itself somehow. And much of it is driven by rabbit hole conspiracy theory stuff... oh wait, I see who I am replying to, no wonder why you identify with them so much. The resident data misrepresenter, rabbit hole conspiracy theorist and conveyer of logical fallacies.

by FCM | 10th Feb 22, 12:38pm 1644449928

Are they the 3.2% unemployed? Maybe they are in "self isolation" for 10 days.

by GV 27 | 10th Feb 22, 1:06pm 1644451599

What point do you think you're making here? A bunch of these idiots are from all across the country. Epsom has nothing to do with any of this, time for the rest of the country to accept that dipshits walk amongst them.

by bender | 10th Feb 22, 5:24pm 1644467098

Of course they came from all over the country. Epsom seems their natural home/comfort zone based on the voting there and how they are so easily manipulated by one party.

by positivelywallstreet | 10th Feb 22, 1:27pm 1644452826

The US has a competing fission technology based on lasers, not magnetic fields, and the UK government has given them $500 million to build one in the UK at the UKresearch facility.

Strange but don’t bargain on fission deployed anytime soon.

edit ..Steam pistons, not lasers….strange stuff

by Zachary Smith | 10th Feb 22, 1:31pm 1644453088

You mean fusion?

by positivelywallstreet | 10th Feb 22, 1:38pm 1644453495

Oops, Ta

by Zen20 | 10th Feb 22, 3:35pm 1644460532

Maybe we could stop breeding so much?