Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news Omicron is now bending global economies, undermining expansions everywhere.
But first, we can report that dairy prices rose strongly again in the overnight auction. They were up +4.1% in USD terms and up +6.4% in NZD terms. This time, the rise was led by the key WMP price. Volumes offered were marginally more than at the same auction a year ago. Overall prices however are up +28% over the same time frame, and that is leading the FAO world dairy price index which is up +17% in the same period. (But having noted that, they are not quite yet back to their 2008 all-time highs. And the highest GDT level was at an auction in April 2013 and we are still -8% below that.)
In the US, there is a warning that the January jobs numbers will be 'ugly' as Omicron sweeps over the country. Illness absences count as job losses in their upcoming non-farm payrolls report, and that will have an outsized impact on the numbers due on Saturday NZT. Jobs growth under these conditions will be stunted, perhaps as low at +150,000 in the month.
The latest factory PMI readings indicate American factories got off to a slower start in 2022 with both the main indexes reporting a drop in their expansion levels. The widely-watched ISM PMI noted they are still in a "a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment" but that new order growth is slowing and backlogs are easing. The internationally-benchmarked Markit one pointed to "soft demand conditions and labor shortages".
The Dallas Fed factory survey retreated more than these national measures.
However, the American retail impulse rose last week, as measured by the Redbook survey. The year-ago base is lowish, so that colours the results, but it is a continuing good result for them.
But German retail sales stumbled in December as Europe's largest economy struggles to come to terms with the Omicron pandemic.
In Australia, retail sales dropped -4.4% month-on-month in December as Omicron kept consumers from spending on goods and services, posting its biggest monthly fall since April 2020. The latest reading was also the first decline in monthly retail activity in four months, reversing sharply from a +7.3% rise in November. The data fits with reports of falling consumer confidence and credit card spending in December. This December 2021 level is however +4.8% higher than December 2020 - before any inflation adjustment. All of 2021 is +5.3% higher than all of 2020, and +12% higher than all of 2019.
And late yesterday, the RBA confirmed it is about to stop its QE bond buying program. But it did push back on expectations that rate hikes are about to start there in 2022.
In NSW, there were 12,818 new community cases reported yesterday, similar the prior day, now with 129,942 active locally-acquired cases, and 30 daily deaths. There are now 2,779 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 11,311 more new infections yesterday. There are now 72,710 active cases in that state - and there were 34 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 7,588 new cases and 10 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1505 yesterday with 3 more deaths. The ACT has 522 new cases, and Tasmania 699 new cases.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.79% and unchanged. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today a little steeper at +63 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +84 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also unchanged at +175 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate has stayed at 1.90%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is +1 bps firmer at 2.60%.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down a minor -0.2% to start their Tuesday trading. Overnight, European markets were all up about +0.9% led by Paris. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +0.3%. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed already for their week-long holiday. Yesterday the ASX200 rose +0.5% while the NZX50 rose +1.4%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1803 and up another +US$7 from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday at just under US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today +½c firmer at 66.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at our lower level at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9 and a small recovery.
The bitcoin price is up just +2.4% since this time yesterday and now at US$39,004. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.