Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news of an unexpected US jobs report.
The rise in US non farm payrolls for November was a sharp disappointment, with the headline number rising just +210,000 when a rise of +550,000 was expected. It is the lowest monthly rise of 2021. But again, we need to question the seasonal adjustments being made. The actual data shows payrolls rising to 150 mln for the first time since the start of the pandemic, an actual rise of +778,000 from October. Recall we noted a +1,576,000 rise in October from September, and +638,000 in September from August in the actual data. This +3.5 mln swelling in four months of actually employed payrolls tells quite a different story to the reported seasonally adjusted numbers. The pandemic twists may have undermined those calculations. However, it is the seasonally adjusted result that markets are reacting to, although now others are cottoning on to the oddities we have been pointing out.
Average weekly hours worked rose. Their participation rate rose. Average weekly earnings in November were up +5.6% from a year ago, and that is above the 2021 average. None of this data really supports the weak payroll number reported.
The Fed is likely to overlook today's headline jobs numbers.
US factory orders were reported +1.0% higher in October than September, and +17% above year ago levels.
And the widely-watched ISM services PMI rose very sharply in November to an all-time high (and after a fall was expected from its already high level). Strong demand, labour shortages, and high prices all feature in this survey. The Markit services PMI for the US shows similar attributes, even if it isn't at a record high.
In Canada, their November payroll data beat expectations, and by some margin. Even if you discount that half of the big gain was for part-time jobs, the full-time jobs rise was double the overall expected increase.
In China, Evergrande said: "In light of the current liquidity status of the Group, there is no guarantee that the Group will have sufficient funds to continue to perform its financial obligations." Local government authorities have descended on the company to see if they can save it. Kaisa is teetering too. The collateral damage could spread widely.
Despite low consumer confidence, the Japanese service sector PMI rose in November to its highest in more than two years. Meanwhile, the private Caixin services PMI for China expanded more slowly with a lame result, and one that was weaker than the official services PMI. But the same services PMI survey in Australia is reporting a rising expansion. (We don't get the November PSI for New Zealand until Monday, December 13, 2021.)
EU retail sales volumes surprised on the upside in October data released overnight. It isn't running hot, but it is expanding modestly and the September data was revised up as well.
In Turkey, the president has dismissed his finance minister as the currency collapses and ration queues start to form for subsidised bread.
Global wheat prices are near ten year highs on struggling northern hemisphere production. They are likely to rise from here because Russia is contemplating an export limit this year. Australian production is strong and they have the most to benefit.
In Australia, pandemic cases in Victoria were 1188 reported yesterday. There are now 12,913 active cases in the state - and there were another 11 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 337 new community cases reported yesterday, a jump, with 2851 active locally acquired cases. They had no deaths yesterday, but there is a growing Omicron outbreak in Sydney. Queensland is reporting three new cases. The ACT has 4 new cases. Overall in Australia, just over 87% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus a bit over 5% have now had one shot so far.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.36% and -10 bps lower from this time yesterday and a 72 day low. Bond markets are taking the jobs data at face value. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter yet again at +77 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also flatter at just over +89 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is down at +134 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate has fallen -11 bps to 1.57%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +1 bp at 2.92%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is down another -3 bps at 2.35%.
Wall Street is finishing the week on a down note with the S&P500 -1.0% lower in late Friday trading. That means it is heading for a -2.1% weekly retreat. European markets finished their Friday sessions all lower as well, down an average of -0.4%. Frankfurt shed -1.6% for the week, Paris was down -1.0%, but London gained +1.1% for the week. Tokyo ended its Friday session up +1.0%, Hong Kong was flat on the day, while Shanghai rose +0.9%. For the week the changes have been -1.1%, -0.6% and +2.2% respectively. The ASX200 ended yesterday up +0.2% and limiting the weekly fall to -0.5%. The NZX50 ended Friday flat, for a weekly gain of +0.4% with most of that earlier in the week.
The price of gold will start today at US$1782/oz and up by +US$15 from this time yesterday. We started the week at US$1786/oz.
And oil prices are still languishing, just marginally firmer at just over US$66.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 and now just under US$70.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today softer yet again at 67.5 USc and almost a -¾c fall from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar however we are firmer at 96.4 AUc. Against the euro we are -½c softer at 59.7 euro cents and it lowest since early October. That means our TWI-5 finished the week at 72.4 and a 100 day low.
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$55,039 -2.1% below the level at this time yesterday. Essentially, it hasn't recovered from the big -8% correction of a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.7%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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111 Comments
However, it is the seasonally adjusted result that markets are reacting to, although now others are cottoning on to the oddities we have been pointing out.
But professional money dealers' actions confirm Bloomberg is ill-informed.
OK, Your Euro$ Curve Has Inverted, Now What?
Put it this way: if it takes quite a lot of bad vibes just to get the curve, any curve, inverted just the bare minimum (like yesterday) in the first place, what level of pessimism, skepticism, and downright risk aversion must there be hidden from within the shadows to keep it there for any length of time at any depth?
The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter yet again at +77 bps
Bloomberg: Odd Wagers on Negative Rates Return as Fed-Hike Bets Are Pared
This is the main culprit - U.S. Dollar Index Cash (DXY00) - a general shortage of shadow banking eurodollar credit creation manifests itself in higher USD currency pair values.
... the latest Roy Morgan political poll is out , and it's not kind to Jacinda ! ... a National-ACT-Maori coalition would be marginally ahead of Labour-Greens .... oh dear , how quickly the glow of Jacindamania has waned ...
.. she still has some friends ... women particularly support her ... Tova ... then Jessica ... no , not you , Barry ... the guys are backing ACT ...
The Maori Party would have as much inclination of joining a National Act coalition as you sleeping in a Labour Party flag. Still now that the Adern government have officially cordoned off public roads, effectively sanctioning policing by the public and creating internal borders in our country, a kingdom might arise within that territory and surprise us all. After all Scotland, up north over there, by way of precedent is seeking just that isn’t it. Divide and rule, now what was the origin of that, Indian Mutiny?
I see misogny is still alive and well. I'm finding that most of the vitriol spewed at Ardern is by men who feel that they have been emasculated by the advent of women in power roles.
Vietnam seems to be the current destination for men who find themselves emasculated and overwhelmed by NZ women taking their rightful place at every level in all institutions.
But what has surprised me is that men's groups are said to be in the process of inviting some Taleban leaders to their conferences to advise on how to put women in their place.
Jacinda started her long-term poll decline the day she spewed forth with the same pathetic contradiction to campaign policy as John Key:
"People expect the value of their most valuable asset to keep rising"
The Salvation Army; at the coal face of societies problems, had a better media take on the matter, made on the same day as her revelation:
“It is likely that without substantial changes in housing policy New Zealand will experience the equivalent of the intergenerational scarring which resulted from the labour market reforms in the 1980s."
The Salvation Army Party! Has a ring to it, don't you think? As long as they don't morph into the liars ALL the rest of them are, we could be onto a winner!
Thankfully, having a licence has stopped drivers from killing people on our roads....
GOVERNMENT scientists have warned that the new Covid variant spreads rapidly, can be transmitted between fully vaccinated people...
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/16870973/warning-covid-omicron-less-eff…
Incorrect. The only people in America that 'Locked Down' were those that wanted to, (as it should be). Do you think the truckers stopped driving coast to coast? Urban areas choose to stay at home, while rural areas from Oklahoma to Montana (personal experience), hardly knew there was a cold virus circulating. Apparently, they heard it on CNN when one of the kids accidently flicked on the wrong channel! More 'Covid' deaths would have happened if the CDC could include suicides, drug overdoses (100,000 in 12 months) and homicides. Perhaps they did!
808,056 according to the CDC 'foundation', a private corporation working on behalf of Big Pharma and the vaccine industry, that profit from the spread of disease. Go down that rabbit hole! Why so high when I live here and observed only one death in a 90 year-old client? Heavily indebted hospitals are government funded for 'Covid patients', FEMA pays $9,000 towards funeral costs (through the CARES ACT), suddenly everybody has Covid, from the motorcycle death, to patients with co-morbities, to the patients with a cold, no test required, we will just assume it was "Covid". Crunch the numbers (not CDC statistics) and you will find it is eerily similar to the flu. Driving on a crowded interstate for most people in the USA is way more life threatening than Covid (personal experience). And correct we will wait until NZ (years under your heinous dividing mandates) has had 'contact' with this cold virus and I am sure you will find it will be just another virus, although somewhat more infectious.
Dick
The CDC is the national public health agency of the United States; it is a United States federal agency, under the Department of health and Human Services.
It is NOT a "'foundation', a private corporation working on behalf of Big Pharma and the vaccine industry, that profit from the spread of disease".
It seems that it is you that needs to climb out of the rabbit hole.
Wow! Talk about going down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, then suggesting others join you? Your rants look to be almost exclusively unverified opinion or complete bulls#$t sprinkled with little bits of truth.
It's truly frightening that people would listen to such inane ramblings.
The CDC foundation is one of two ways a corporation can legally provide funds to the CDC. Direct gifts to the CDC are also 'legally' allowed. (Big Pharma lobbying). Corporate influence over the CDC. CDC and their researchers own patents! CDC buys and sells vaccines, making them a subsidiary of Big Pharma. Does that not make it a privately run corporation, for profit? CDC should not be allowed to accept any gifts or donations, on top of their $8 billion dollar budget, or participate in the market. The cronyism within the Medical Industrial Complex is toxic. If they were serious about saving humanity, why not share the vaccine technology (unproven gene therapy) and production with the world? No money in that.
Chebbo, you have an absolute right to drive on the right hand side of the road with or without a license, so long as it is your own private road. On public roads, however, you don’t and if you insist you will only drive on the right you can bloody well walk! Is that a better comparison for you or is anyone who disagrees with you labeled disingenuous?
Almost 40% of the country would suggest otherwise. Vaccine passports are no different to Aussie and certainly if you want something to really complain about head over to Europe where mandatory vaccination appears to be gaining traction. I certainly won’t be voting for Jacinda but compared to most other comparable countries our health response to this ever changing pandemic has been exceptional.
Unhealthy obese people with co-morbidities are the ones dying (and taking up hospital beds). As they always do, the true 'Pandemic'. Vaccine passports could be extended to a weight for age mandate and keep them out of all fast food 'restaurants' (I like that terminology) and fish and chip shops. Then we could alienate them also, make them stay at home like the unvaccinated.
... we've had a sugar pandemic building up since the 1960's ... the toll on human lives , misery , clogging up arteries & hospitals is multiples of what covid will ever be ... obesity ... diabetes 2 ...
Yet ... we hit the panic button & allow gloomsterizing modelers & epidemiologists to tear down our normal way of life because of a nasty flu virus ...
DTRH,
You might just find that many other countries with governments of the left and Right, are doing the same thing. This is a public health issue and I for one, want to stay away, as far as is possible, from those who choose to remain unvaccinated.
There is much for which this government can be rightly criticised and the list keeps growing, but vaccine passes is not one of them. To be blunt, if you are one of the unvaccinated, you're an idiot in my book.
Just because other countries are having vax passports does not make it right. What are you going to do If to have that passport the government requires you to have more vaccines starts using it to track your movements bank accounts. I am not against jabs just don’t agree with vax passports once you start giving away your freedoms this can go down a slippery slope.
Feeling lied to yet....??
Admission from MOH that their figures are inflated....
.https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/126942505/why-our-covid19-hosp…
MoH lying. Chicken feed. Second nature. Remember way back, when they were instructed to test all border staff, decided for themselves not to, but lied that that they were. Why would you need to have any concern about being caught lying when you can see off, ignore & deny the ombudsman, the high court, the minister of health, and run a tender for saliva testing that was completely corrupted.
Ok, how bout this to challenge your immense logic ... how many of the NZ breakers team could potentially go where you can ????... hint... all double inoculated ...
Yip , they all can. Well done.!!
Now how many are currently covid positive?
Hmm 9 + ???
Time for you to spout some rubbish me thinks....
... that argument is 180 degrees back to front ... I'm OK , I'm vaccinated ...if I catch covid it'll be a mild reaction for me ... so , I'm cool with that ...
As a Pfizer kid , I could pass covid to an unvaccinated person , and harm them greatly ...
... the unvaccinated ought to be paranoid of us double jabbies ... and of each other ... I wouldn't wanna be in their shoes ...
There is certain logic in that. NZrs were led to believe by this government that the 90% target was meaningful. Otherwise why set it (albeit reluctantly) in the first place. A general take at the time of those announcements, was that said level would suffice to alleviate risk on the hospitals etc. In other words it was always accepted that there would be a percentage of unvaccinated & the 90% set the above ratio for sufficient mitigation accordingly. Not so, not so at all. Total deception, otherwise it would not have become necessary to introduce draconian measures to segregate those unvaccinated numbers that were always recognised as going to be present, once 90% was achieved in relative localities.
... oh dear , Mr F ... I do believe Minister Hipkins & PM Ardern lied to us ... big fat fecking hairy lies ..
We obliged & obeyed , meekly followed their directives .... and , still we got T-boned at the Red Light ... who'd have foreseen that they'd BS us ( snigger snigger ... we all saw that coming ! ) ...
Yip
The narrative is a bungling mish mash of crap , half truths and plain Deception ....
Michael Baker on news saying 3 to 4 years more vaccines!!!
Yip freedom is coming!
Just watch the kickback from your 7th booster everyone.. I've heard its nasty (despite no trials...)
Exactly, the people have been blinded by those unruly, disease spreading, unvaccinated idiots... Government mandates are then easy to apply, using the government funded media. Tracer apps are just surveillance, vaccination passports will be used to allow your movements (rationed consumption), road blocks will become permanent (east, west Germany), non-conformists will be fined (tax). Government control has become stifling, under the disguise of a few unruly, filthy, mutants (Jews)... Next will be a digital currency, where all purchases are controlled, travel will be limited, under the 'Green Initiative'. The writing is on the wall, that is why the heinous vaccine passport needs to stop (it will be the vaccinated who will be controlled, 90%, gotcha)). Farmers beware, you will be next.
The people who are unvaxed are your fellow humans your friends family if you are vaccinated how does that hurt you. At what point do you decide people who don’t want a jab for whatever reason are aloud back into society and what happens if six months you need more booster and other drugs when are you going to say that’s enough to the government or are you just happy to stay doing everything government dictates .
... the unvaxxed cannot harm me : I'm a double jabber ... I feel very relaxed about covid ...
The unvaxxed are the vulnerable ... they risk serious illness ...or worse .. they oughta be pooping their pants at the thought that anyone in society , jabbed or otherwise , could transmit covid to them ...
The CCP still persists with an elimination strategy yet the incoming variants are looking highly transmissible, beyond control. Couple that with financial & economic disquiet of the mammoth proportions of Evergrande & others, China is thus poised at crossroads indeed. Will the CCP resultantly draw the bamboo curtain tighter, introspectively speaking or will they embark on foreign “adventures” India, Taiwan, Mongolia for instance to distract the unsettled querying minds, millions of them undoubtedly, on the home front.
I believe EVER and Ever Grandee...will invade Waiheke as they cannot beat the down fall.. (Maybe they just come cash and cap in hand)...what the hell do I know..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/waiheke-homes-make-six-times-more-money-i…
I believe EVER and Ever Grandee...will invade Waiheke as they cannot beat the down fall..
The link from Granny Herald is really just highlighting the ludicrous extremes of the bubble. You can look at far less salubrious communities where house prices are outstripping the sheeple's ability to earn on an annual basis.
What's far more interesting is when ('when' not 'if') the realization emerges that our national wealth is little more than a fiction and we've duped ourselves by thinking we can just lend more money into existence to pretend that we're rich.
... we have an unvaccinated guy at work ... I told him that if he transmits covid to me , the odds are I'll get a minor flu from it .... whereas , if double jabbed me transmits covid to him , he'll likely get very sick , maybe even be hospitalized ... he should be very afraid of me , the Pfizer Kid ...
Be afraid unvaccinated people ... be very very afraid !
... he turned several shades whiter than he usually is ... but accepted it's his choice ... good man ...
Here's the go : the mandates / traffic lights / covid passports / Iwi roadblocks... all are a complete waste of time ... the threats to businesses of gaol & $ 12 000 fines for not checking passports ... just complete brain fades from an incompetent government ... we're 90 % jabbed ... stop the BS , Jacinda !
he'll likely get very sick, maybe even be hospitalised
Is he over the age of about 75, and/or with underlying health conditions? Because if not, "likely" is a very misleading word to use here.
It has got to be almost impossible now for anyone to have an informed opinion around anything related to COVID-19. There is too much misinformation coming from extremists at both ends of the spectrum.
We don't use small, isolated sample sizes when looking at statistics, especially when there are hundreds of millions of cases worldwide to draw data from.
COVID-19 has got to be the most widely recorded, studied virus now in human history. We have the figures, they are all publicly available. There is no excuse for believing that COVID-19 is "likely" to make you very sick unless you happen to fall within a high-risk group.
MOH fudging their numbers....https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/126942505/why-our-covid19-hosp…
Sad your fear has overwhelmed you. It is your right to have an unauthorized experimental, gene therapy synthetic drug, injected into your bloodstream, from a profit seeking, free from litigation corporation, convicted of too many felonies to list here. Just not for me. Your fear should be real. My golf game in Colorado just recently, with my infected, vaccinated friend, resulted in me with a minor cold, sore throat and a couple of days in the lazy-boy. Luckily for me, I was unvaccinated or I could have ended up in hospital or perhaps even died!
That is the upper respiratory system fighting back (does fog your brain), building my anti-bodies for the next mutating invasion that they will hopefully recognize. The next virus that comes along won't stand a chance (antibody levels will be stronger) and hopefully I will be less transmissive. Doing my part for society. Sadly Pfizer missed out on a potential client, to natural immunity (no money in that). Pfizer kid rolled the dice and took his chances, I took mine, we are both in the same spot. Pfizer kid now has the prospect of never ending 'booster shots', that does not seem very appealing to me and anyway I hate needles.
Gummy you sound proud almost like you are looking forward to infecting someone why are you being like this to someone who will not cause you any harm.you don’t know why people choose not to get jabbed and it is not your business. I guess thats why you are called gummy bear as you you have a habit of talking to people like that.
... prior to Covid-19 I kept myself fit ( for my age ) , and was careful about my diet ... and dont I feel glad about that now .. .
So , you're completely wrong in your personal assessment of me ... not sure why you made such wide of the mark stabs in the dark ...
... fit as a fiddle !
USA Economy: Very sad for the Western world when the USA has such an obviously unsuitable disabled President harming the economy and the wider democratic worlds’ reputation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/bidens-support-fading-fast-as-cnbc-surv…
Even the MSM is starting to shelter Biden less from realistic critique now.
to borrow from bw often here, a direct consequence of a whatever it takes determination driven exclusively by political ambition and self interest. Undeniably the USA desperately needed to reset but they get a President in his sunset and a Vice President of both awkward & unknown quantity.
.. hey frazz ! ... politics is never about perfection , it's about an overall balance of the basket ... clearly I'm not in accord with Chris Luxon's views on religion nor abortion ... I'll watch with interest if his skills as a team builder recreate the Gnats into a viable shadow government ...
Or ... I'll just vote ACT , again ...
Local government authorities have descended on the company to see if they can save it.
Just because something can be saved doesn't mean it should be saved. Ask Irish taxpayers about bank bailouts and NAMA. Clearing excessive and speculative leverage is a normal part of the market cycle.
US data confuses the market.
Lol
What will you tell about reserve bank governor's who taking the que from fed governor is fooling the market and average citizen that inflation is temporary.
Interesting time. Fundamentals are ignored and in the name of saving economy are actually trying to save their arse by trying to delay the inevitable, hoping to kick the can beyond their term be it bureauacrats, reserve bank or politicians.
So US DATA IS JIST FOLLOWING THE DICTAT FROM THEIR MASTERS.
NZD still on way down this coupled with inflation will create a spiral effect and power that be will have to raise interest rates more to protect NZD we all know this is brewing for a massive crash get out sell as quick as possible before negative equity is with you
Bitcoin also taking a tumble now under 50k would be hard to take if you jumped in at 65k to tank this much large players are selling they’ll jump back in once it goes down around 46k then sucker in more new investors with FOMO this will go on till US government starts up us digital dollar at that point fed will take Bitcoin down as will not want competition.
You still got time, RBNZ got them some wiggle room (0.75% interest) and anyway they can extend QE under the disguise of the 'Omicron contagion'. The long term 'Keynesian' experiment is unravelling. What our governor failed to understand is; we ain't got the world's reserve currency and thus a license to print.
Submissions to RBNZ by Monday for a new Digital currency
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/notes-and-coins/future-of-money/cbdc?fbclid=Iw…
Crikey, who are these wonks...
Executive summary
At the Reserve Bank of New Zealand – Te Pūtea Matua (the Reserve Bank) we characterise our mandates, roles and responsibilities in terms of the Tāne Mahuta narrative (depicted in the following Introduction). In this metaphor, central bank money forms part of te Toto, the sap of the tree representing our financial system (Tāne Mahuta). We have a role in ensuring that te Toto is healthy and resilient, thereby supporting the rest of the Reserve Bank’s strategic roles and mandates as represented by other parts of Tāne and his ecosystem.
This stuff is everywhere now. Waffle waffle waffle. I read a stategic plan the other day and came away thinking they have no idea what they want to get done and less on how to do it. The word salad was just a homage to the moral high grounds of the day. Made think twice about any involvement.
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