David Chaston

US jobless claims rise, factory surveys improve; US rural sector suffering; China bank lending improves; Aussie inflation expectations stay elevated; UST 10yr at 4.16%; gold stays high; oil drops hard; NZ$1 = 57.4 USc; TWI-5 = 61.5

US jobless claims rise, factory surveys improve; US rural sector suffering; China bank lending improves; Aussie inflation expectations stay elevated; UST 10yr at 4.16%; gold stays high; oil drops hard; NZ$1 = 57.4 USc; TWI-5 = 61.5

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Westpac makes rate changes, busy rental market in Auckland, granny flat rules in effect, household savings fall, S&P warns in way NZ should notice, swaps fall, NZD stable, & more

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Westpac makes rate changes, busy rental market in Auckland, granny flat rules in effect, household savings fall, S&P warns in way NZ should notice, swaps fall, NZD stable, & more

US data mixed with dodgy aspects; China trade surplus huge; Japanese machine tool orders jump; South Korean surprise; global growth stable; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold up , silver zooms again; oil on hold; NZ$1 = 57.5 USc; TWI-5 = 61.6

US data mixed with dodgy aspects; China trade surplus huge; Japanese machine tool orders jump; South Korean surprise; global growth stable; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold up , silver zooms again; oil on hold; NZ$1 = 57.5 USc; TWI-5 = 61.6

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; ANZ ups its floating rate, property signals turn mostly positive, better labour market signals, better milk powder prices, swaps up, gold up, NZ$1 = 57.3 USc, & more

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; ANZ ups its floating rate, property signals turn mostly positive, better labour market signals, better milk powder prices, swaps up, gold up, NZ$1 = 57.3 USc, & more

US inflation unchanged; US jobs weak; sentiment surveys waver; Japan data good, snap election likely; Australia sentiment eases; UST 10yr at 4.17%; gold stable, silver higher; oil up; NZ$1 = 57.4 USc; TWI-5 = 61.6

US inflation unchanged; US jobs weak; sentiment surveys waver; Japan data good, snap election likely; Australia sentiment eases; UST 10yr at 4.17%; gold stable, silver higher; oil up; NZ$1 = 57.4 USc; TWI-5 = 61.6

Although the rate of increase has tailed off over the past two years, residential construction costs remain very high with the pandemic rises now baked in. But builders sense better demand in 2026

Although the rate of increase has tailed off over the past two years, residential construction costs remain very high with the pandemic rises now baked in. But builders sense better demand in 2026

2026 kicks off with our largest home loan lender raising its floating rate (as a profit improver) but others are not likely to follow

2026 kicks off with our largest home loan lender raising its floating rate (as a profit improver) but others are not likely to follow

Bogus claims against Fed boss being watched closely; Indian CPI stay low; Australian household spending rises; Google's AI chops power its valuation; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold hits new record, oil stable; NZ$1 = 57.7 USc; TWI-5 = 61.7

Bogus claims against Fed boss being watched closely; Indian CPI stay low; Australian household spending rises; Google's AI chops power its valuation; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold hits new record, oil stable; NZ$1 = 57.7 USc; TWI-5 = 61.7

We look at the forces that will influence our borrowing interest rates in 2026. Some of the significant ones are out of our local control, but others are not

We look at the forces that will influence our borrowing interest rates in 2026. Some of the significant ones are out of our local control, but others are not

Make it a habit. Give our weekly quiz a go, joining a growing group who love the challenge

Make it a habit. Give our weekly quiz a go, joining a growing group who love the challenge

Eyes on some big key US decisions including for tariffs; better balance for Canada jobs; strong Indian loan growth, Taiwan exports; EU cements huge new FTA; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold zooms, oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.3 USc; TWI-5 = 61.4

Eyes on some big key US decisions including for tariffs; better balance for Canada jobs; strong Indian loan growth, Taiwan exports; EU cements huge new FTA; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold zooms, oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.3 USc; TWI-5 = 61.4

Interest rates will fall in 2026 only if the economy fails to pick up steam AND inflation falls from here. The combination seems unlikely as we start the new year. More likely, savers will be in demand

Interest rates will fall in 2026 only if the economy fails to pick up steam AND inflation falls from here. The combination seems unlikely as we start the new year. More likely, savers will be in demand

US data weakish across the board; Japan household spending rises; China inflation stays low; Indian loan growth rises; EU retail rises; huge new trade bloc formed; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold zooms, oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.3 USc; TWI-5 = 61.4

US data weakish across the board; Japan household spending rises; China inflation stays low; Indian loan growth rises; EU retail rises; huge new trade bloc formed; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold zooms, oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.3 USc; TWI-5 = 61.4

US jobs data soft ahead of payrolls report; US trade data weaker; China property declines; German factory orders jump; air cargo rises fast except in the US; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold on hold; oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.5 USc; TWI-5 = 61.5

US jobs data soft ahead of payrolls report; US trade data weaker; China property declines; German factory orders jump; air cargo rises fast except in the US; UST 10yr at 4.18%; gold on hold; oil firms; NZ$1 = 57.5 USc; TWI-5 = 61.5

US hiring weak, job openings at 14 month low; US services PMIs differ; China to follow loose monetary policy; Australia CPI dips; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold dips from highs; oil down at 5yr lows; NZ$1 = 57.8 USc; TWI-5 = 61.8

US hiring weak, job openings at 14 month low; US services PMIs differ; China to follow loose monetary policy; Australia CPI dips; UST 10yr at 4.14%; gold dips from highs; oil down at 5yr lows; NZ$1 = 57.8 USc; TWI-5 = 61.8

Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices were both lower in December on seasonality factors but lower prices ate into their mountain of stock as both sellers became more realistic, and more townhouses became available

Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices were both lower in December on seasonality factors but lower prices ate into their mountain of stock as both sellers became more realistic, and more townhouses became available

Commodities surge, including dairy prices; US services sector cools, car sales modest; China car sales hit record; notable China climate shift; UST 10yr at 4.18%; precious metals all up sharply; oil lower; NZ$1 = 57.8 USc; TWI-5 = 61.8

Commodities surge, including dairy prices; US services sector cools, car sales modest; China car sales hit record; notable China climate shift; UST 10yr at 4.18%; precious metals all up sharply; oil lower; NZ$1 = 57.8 USc; TWI-5 = 61.8

Stock of houses for sale hits a 10-year December high. But average asking prices barely match year-ago levels, but beat general inflation over the past decade

Stock of houses for sale hits a 10-year December high. But average asking prices barely match year-ago levels, but beat general inflation over the past decade

US factories contract; US flu season 'moderately severe'; China service sector expands slower; EU fully adopts CBAM to international grumbles; UST 10yr at 4.16%; gold up sharply; oil low & stable; NZ$1 = 57.9 USc; TWI-5 = 61.9

US factories contract; US flu season 'moderately severe'; China service sector expands slower; EU fully adopts CBAM to international grumbles; UST 10yr at 4.16%; gold up sharply; oil low & stable; NZ$1 = 57.9 USc; TWI-5 = 61.9

Test yourself with our quiz. Go on, you've got the time. Join the hundreds each week who are up for the challenge

Test yourself with our quiz. Go on, you've got the time. Join the hundreds each week who are up for the challenge

China pushes internal growth plans, restricts silver exports; Korean exports rise fast; US factories stutter; Aussie house price growth shows signs of exhaustion; UST 10yr at 4.19%; gold up slightly; ditto oil; NZ$1 = 57.7 USc; TWI-5 = 61.7

China pushes internal growth plans, restricts silver exports; Korean exports rise fast; US factories stutter; Aussie house price growth shows signs of exhaustion; UST 10yr at 4.19%; gold up slightly; ditto oil; NZ$1 = 57.7 USc; TWI-5 = 61.7

US trapping itself in stagflation; China stuck with subsidies for internal growth; Korean exports star; India holds expansion; EU turns down; UST 10yr at 4.19%; gold little-changed; oil stays low; NZ$1 = 57.6 USc; TWI-5 = 61.7

US trapping itself in stagflation; China stuck with subsidies for internal growth; Korean exports star; India holds expansion; EU turns down; UST 10yr at 4.19%; gold little-changed; oil stays low; NZ$1 = 57.6 USc; TWI-5 = 61.7

After three straight years of building back term deposit balances, savers took a break in 2025. Lower rate offers and better alternatives caused the pause

After three straight years of building back term deposit balances, savers took a break in 2025. Lower rate offers and better alternatives caused the pause

US Fed minutes show expected divisions, likely 2026 rate cuts; regional surveys negative; Korean data dips; China moves on local support; UST 10yr at 4.13%; precious metals recover some; oil stays low; NZ$1 = 58 USc; TWI-5 = 62.1

US Fed minutes show expected divisions, likely 2026 rate cuts; regional surveys negative; Korean data dips; China moves on local support; UST 10yr at 4.13%; precious metals recover some; oil stays low; NZ$1 = 58 USc; TWI-5 = 62.1

2026 is likely to be a year of growing instability in global financial markets, washing over our shores in stronger waves. Time to record your 2026 predictions - and check how you did last year

2026 is likely to be a year of growing instability in global financial markets, washing over our shores in stronger waves. Time to record your 2026 predictions - and check how you did last year