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Electric vehicle sales surged in most parts of the world last month

Technology / news
Electric vehicle sales surged in most parts of the world last month
A full frontal view of the Toyota bZ4X. Photo: Juha Saarinen
A full frontal view of the Toyota bZ4X. Photo: Juha Saarinen

UK-based Rho Motion say its figures show November 2024 was a record month for electric vehicles, with 1.8 million units being sold worldwide.

The November numbers are a 100,000 higher than the October 2024 ones, which set the previous record.

Year-on-year between January and November, 2024 saw global EV sales jump by a quarter to 15.2 million. China remains the top market in the world for EVs, with sales increasing a massive 40 per cent to 9.7 million.

EV sales in North America increased to 1.6 million, up 10 per cent, whereas in the rest of the world they rose by a quarter.

Source: Rho Motion

Not all areas registered growth however. Even though 2.7 million EVs were sold in Europe between January and November, the market in that region shrank by three per cent in that period of time.

This is due to the major markets like Germany, France and Italy being down, whereas UK with its zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate grew by 17 per cent.

EV brands capitalising on the strong sales growth in China include Geely, Tesla and Changan; China also saw a doubling of plugin hybrid EVs (PHEVs) on a year-on-year basis, Rho Motion said.

For the US and Canada, Rho Motion expects continued strong growth toward the end of the year as consumers bring forward their purchases to take advantage of the Biden administration's tax credit, which president-elect Donald Trump intends to scrap.

Motor Industry Association numbers suggest full EV and petrol-hybrid EV sales in New Zealand were down significantly year-on-year in January-November 2024 compared to the same time period 2023.

 

Type Jan-Nov 23 Jan-Nov 24 Difference
BEVs 17,688 5508 -68.9%
PHEVs 8008 2729 -65.9%

 

Update The New Zealand numbers were misread and wrong in the earlier version of the story. Apologies.

 

Rho Motion tracks market trends for electric vehicles and batteries.

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127 Comments

Meanwhile in backwards NZ where we now pretty much penalise people for doing something good, but isn't part of the petrol head culture of driving ever larger trucks on them...
https://evdb.nz/ev-stats

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11

EV's are woke don't you know?

Meanwhile in Norway - 

Of the 2.8m private cars registered in the Nordic country, 754,303 are all-electric, against 753,905 that run on petrol, the Norwegian road federation (OFV) said in a statement. Diesel models remain the most numerous at just under 1m, but their sales are falling rapidly.“This is historic. A milestone few saw coming 10 years ago,” said OFV director Øyvind Solberg Thorsen.“The electrification of the fleet of passenger cars is going quickly, and Norway is thereby rapidly moving towards becoming the first country in the world with a passenger car fleet dominated by electric cars.”

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Yes, Norway is the global leader in this space. But, how did they do it? That's right, they used the money they generate from selling fossil fuels to fund infrastructure and massive government incentives for 2 decades. They also combined that with ever increasing taxes on ICE vehicles that have made them near impossible to purchase new except for the ultra rich. They also have most of their electricity generated by hydro at ~90% with wind making up the rest with a bit of gas as buffer. We could be on the exact same path as Norway if we had some sort of vision past the next 3yr election cycle. 

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We could be on the exact same path as Norway if we had shit loads of oil to sell to the rest of the world  

 

 

 

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That's weird as we were well on our way....?

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We were barely touching the surface.

There was an initial rush for people who wanted to be early adopters, but they've all bought now, and the rest of the market is a much taller order.

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BEV won't suit everyone but they are a better tech and affordable especially if your clocking up km's. I appreciate a percentage of petrol is tax and acc, but it can't complete with renewable electricity.

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We were doing much better when we had the clean car discount. We don’t need loads of oil money, we just need to charge people extra for buying a polluter and give that money to the people who don’t. 

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A lot of pollution created by making an electric car. Research it. Then burn that lovely coal so you can charge it.

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You used the research word to justify your point. Who funded your research big oil? Google how much energy goes into finding and refining crude oil so it can be burnt just the once whilst you sit in traffic on your daily commute. 

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Companies like BHP and their shareholders love EV's. Vehicle electrification requires 55% more copper mines by 2050 — study - MINING.COM

Disconnected western advocates pushing for products that are created by poisoning the poor people of other nations may need to rebalance their views. 'Cobalt Red' describes the 'horror show' of mining the element in the DRC : Goats and Soda : NPR

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We can recycle copper, companies like BMW all ready do. Glad you raised the cobalt issue its used to remove sulfur in the oil refining process. Like petrol it cant be recycled in a time frame that matters. If you want to be green don't own a car. If you need a car and want to save money invest in solar and a used BEV. 

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NMC batteries are the most common EV battery type and the C stands for cobalt.

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No shit Sherlock. 

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"It's the best time to buy an EV with the vehicles selling more cheaply than when the rebate scheme was in place..."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/535572/buy-now-for-a-well-priced-ev…

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I'm a bit confused on the NZ data. This is the actual YTD new registration data for NZ by power category: -

 

                    2023           2024

Diesel         8,270           6,790 

Petrol        41,049         35,712 

Hybrid       26,786         29,440

PHEV         7,999           2,729

BEV          17,650           5,518

 

When you add in all of the used imports that come in each year the data looks horrendous for BEV's as a percentage of new registrations (cars added to the fleet). BEV's as a percentage of used and new registrations YTD is only 3.8%. 

Tesla NZ is having a complete shocker. They are down a whopping -76% YTD with 1,037 registrations this year vs 4,340 for last year. Without some sort of government incentive I imagine that Tesla will be reevaluating its operations in NZ.

The transition to a BEV future in NZ isn't happening at the rate the mainstream media tells us it is. Remember, a BEV is the only true EV, everything else has an ICE as part of the complex drivetrain.

     

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The transition to a BEV future in NZ isn't happening at the rate the mainstream media tells us?

Are they telling you something else? Ideology driven NZ coalition is hell bent on slowing this uptake (and doing a great job) but regardless is going to happen anyway. We will just have some ICe clunkers around our roads for many years to come.

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100%. The challenge that NZ will face is the risk we face with infrastructure not being built out as a result of our slow adoption. Vehicle supply will change drastically when the UK/EU regulations start kicking in from 2035 and all hell will break loose in the global automarket. It will be fascinating to see it play out. I've got a foot in both camps with a BEV for day to day and a 911 for fun.

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That also highlights the issue.

The cost of these, is the higher than average price, PLUS the extra expense on the infrastructure to make it work.

We have not reached the point of it being a net financial approach.

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Most 2023 BEV sales happened in december , to beat the end of the rebate. 

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Definitely a lift in sales prior to the rebate being ended, but it's not as big as we were lead to believe. BEV's are actually cheaper now than when the rebate was in place. The slide in BEV sales actually started much earlier.

The bigger issue is peoples ability to finance a new car purchase. Most BEV purchases for private individuals were zero % mortgage offers (3-5yr) from banks for Sustainable lending. This caused a huge uptake in BEV sales and then people used the rebate to go on holiday in Fiji, no, I'm not joking.

Below is Tesla new sales for 2023: -

Jan   189

Feb   186

Mar   875

Apr   197

May  173

Jun   963

Jul    203

Aug  104

Sep  760

Oct   144

Nov  566

Dec  588

 

By QTR

Q1   1,232

Q2   1,333

Q3   1,067

Q4   1,268

 

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"Definitely a lift in sales prior to the rebate being ended, but it's not as big as we were lead to believe. BEV's are actually cheaper now than when the rebate was in place. The slide in BEV sales actually started much earlier."

I was curious about that and charted the 2023 EV sales totals month by month:

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BEV sales by QTR are as below. The peak of normal sales was 22 Q3/4 and it declined from there until the 23 Q4 before the rebate was ended. 23 Q4 was a combination of brought forward sales and dealers pre-registering BEV's so that they could claim the rebate for themselves. Dealers then used the cars as demo and later sold them after only a few months. 

So, the trend was going down before the rebate was ended with a one-off QTR result before the free money stopped.

The BEV market collapsed after the rebate ended and hasn't recovered. This is despite the range of vehicles on offer being being significantly greater than 2yrs ago and the out the door price being significantly lower than when the rebate was in place.

 

21 Q1:    851

21 Q2:    773

21 Q3: 2,550

21 Q4: 2,512

22 Q1: 2,820

22 Q2: 1,673

22 Q3: 5,378

22 Q4: 5,761

23 Q1: 4,567

23 Q2: 4,810

23 Q3: 3,660

23 Q4: 7,965

24 Q1: 1,081

24 Q2: 1,131

24 Q3: 1,974

 

 

 

 

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Interesting numbers. Seem to recall 3 or 4 years ago when Labour dis-incentivised utes the cheapest BEV then was the Leaf, ~$50k with a slightly more up market one at about $55k. Within 3 months or so after the BEV "subsidy" the bottom range leaf went off the NZ market. The well off jumped in to buy Tesla's. The majority of Kiwis were not in a position to buy a Leaf. No doubt Labour's chardonnay types availed themselves of the Teslas.

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You mean Luxys wife?

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I thought it was a ridiculous claim by Luxon that the Tesla belonged to his wife so wasn't part of his financial affairs when he was challenged about claiming the Clean Car Discount. Not a lawyer but surely the Tesla would be classed as matrimonial property.

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My recollection is Tesla like most manufacturing priced to the cut off. What the clean car rebate did was encourage importers to bring in cleaner vehicles. Some people like the smell of an internal combustion engine. Others understand it's toxic and and breathing in diesel and petrol exhaust isn't wise.

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I'd wager that part of the reason Tesla has bit the dust in NZ this year is that Kiwis have become lukewarm about Elon Musk - and his noteworthy association with Donald Trump.

TTP

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National still need to meet climate commitments, but without electric cars or trains they are not going to get close. Muppets. 

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As if they would save us.

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I mean it shouldn't be surprising to see EV sales increasing. As any new technology matures and gains public acceptance, there will be increased uptake. That doesn't necessarily make it a new paradigm, or mean that it's going to completely replace anything else.

What's unfortunate is how politicised the whole thing has become. If you drive an EV you're a woke lefty, if you don't then you're a far-right conspiracy theorist. Tesla owners who hate Elon Musk are having a full-blown identity crisis. It's just a car.

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But there will be hickups on the way.

For example the early adopters have adopted.

And now that road user fees (which would have had to come in at some point), will be affecting the net present value calculations.

And as the technology matures and perhaps converges on the most cost effective battery/ motor configurations, the previous cars will be worth even less than they are now.

And of course some manufacturers will go bust. Which will dramatically affect the residual values of their cars and may affect the desire to buy from manufacturers tainted by the ones who have gone bust.

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Bought a leaf 6 years ago as an import with a limited range. For 5 years it manged my daily commute of 88 km's. With the money I saved on fuel, I bought my very first brand new car a bev. Still saving money buy not burning fossil fuel. 

The leaf can still do 88 kms on charge at highway speeds in the summer just not the winter. Current generation and the last generation of batteries are worth every dollar.

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This can't be right, my mate says that the whole EV fad is over. :D

Like many things this government has done, they are setting the country back by slowing EV adoption. So we won't have the infrastructure in place we need for the future. Both public and private charging. EVs will continue to get cheaper, we are right on the tipping point now. Very soon you'll be paying more upfront for an ICE vehicle, rebate or no rebate. Progress and technology advances regardless of your feelings. It's coming. That future also includes a significant proportion of ICE manufactures going bust within the next decade.

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Nissan/Mazda just hanging on... Honda?

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The next surge will be commercial . 

LDV edeliver3's are going for $ 30k runout. I would say there is competition on the way.

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They're runout though. Because LDV have probably sold a hundred or so of these, while the country buys 2500 Toyota Hiaces a year.

Commercially they're still half baked. As soon as you add weight, you lose range, and commercially a vehicle that can go 500ks with a 60 second "recharge" is worth way more than one you fuel for less, that's on the road less. The LDV needs to be out of action for 2hrs before it can get the same range (and that's with it being empty). Factor in a driver not doing anything while it's charging (unless you have two edelivers with one always on charge), and it's a very expensive proposition, or only suitable for niche customers, who don't need the extra utility.

Hence, extremely little traction in EVs who's primary role is anything other than moving human bodies about - which is kinda low tier of most of our energy consumption. Most everything else you're doing is dependent on fossil fuels for either materials or transport.

That'll likely change, but it's a fair few years yet, and an LDV edeliver is a paperweight.

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LOl, you're doing great at making shit up today.

If a tradie is doing 300kms a day at an average speed of 80kph. (optimistic in Auckland) They've wasted 4hrs on the road instead of doing productive work. 

And you recharge overnight.  If you need a top up during the day it's not 2 hours, its 45mins to 80% on a DC charger, but chances are you won't need 80% you probably need an extra 20% or so to get you home so plug in, grab a pie and drink and by the time you you've finished your pie you're good to go.

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The LDV goes 220ks unladen. Practically, that'd be 150ks once loaded up with a full complement.

The average light commercial van does just over 100ks a day. So you're covered on the average, but not on days where you're going over (most tradies aren't travelling the same distance every day).

You can recoup travel time, an extra $100 fee for the time expended charging the vehicle could be a tall order to claw back.

If these stacked up commercially and practically then businesses would lap them up.

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Weight has far less of an effect than you think, the big problem would be if you added roof racks and ladders etc, and tried going motorway speeds.  Aero is the big killer.

Edit: I just went back and re-read the review I copied the text below about the e-deliver3 from and realized he's talking crack, no way is the 400km range possible in a van with a battery that size, they must be using something like the completely nonsense Chinese range standard.  The 243(Evdb)/227 km range is WLTP for the bigger battery, the small battery one was discontinued and would have been a dog of a thing.  Sorry.

****

Ps: The eDeliver 3 is available with a choice of batteries. The entry-level van gets a 35kWh battery which allows for up to 280km of range on a single charge, while the 52.5kWh option bumps this figure up to 400km off a single charge. Getting into the bigger-battery van will set you back an extra $5000.

So likely you easily get 220km range loaded up with gear, not this 150km figure you pulled out of your ass.

 

 

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Their website says 227ks.

Some studies evidence a 25% reduction in range, when a commercial EV is carrying close to it's capacity. Factor in the appendages you mentioned and temperature variabilities, 150 isn't unreasonable.

My comments aren't that outlandish. I run the numbers every 6-12 months for replacing some of my commercial vehicles. I can even buy some electric models used for less than the equivalent ICE version, but I can't get a vehicle that suits all my applications. I can get close, but then I'd still need a backup ICE for when the EV doesn't work.

Good to know a business can overcome range issues and downtime by inserting even more money though.

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New Zealand is being left behind. Like the ferries,  this was another bad move by this government to make EVs not really worth buying atm. 

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That's actually the manufacturers fault.

Concentrating on the wealthy higher end. Most people don't need motorised retractable door handles and a 17" centre console, they want cheap, reliable efficient transport.

The prices of EVs have dropped below what they were 2 years ago, when it had a  government subsidy. Basic economics says we should be selling way more of them, but the good people aren't buying. They can quickly do a cost benefit exercise and discount them as an option.

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Unsure on that yet as the govt is a majority shareholder in most of the gentailers, but they would have to take on large amounts of debt to fund the increased generation to support mass adoption, therefore is it really worth it?

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If you want a BEV, hybrid, PHEV then go any buy it. Don't rely on the govt to subsidise you including charging stations. 

I'd be happy to slap a 25% tax, excise duty whatever on any ICE car above 1.6l or hybrid. Nothing to do with emissions and saving the planet. Predominantly cutting the countries fuel bill

I'd suggest a very high percentage of cars can be considerably smaller than what's on the road now.

I use cars in the broadest sense and somehow exemptions need to be given on genuine businesses who need vehicles > ICE 1.6l engines

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That would be fine if we weren’t subsidising ICE either. But the crap coming out the back is killing us, they make a load of noise, and they seriously destroy our balance of payments. Not to mention the destruction of the planet. 

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As if the vast array of rare earth metals and other mining/refining which go into a high tech product like an EV isn't "destroying the planet" and killing people. The ethos that EV consumerism is a better kind of consumerism than ICE consumerism may be true on the margins, but on the whole it's just a more modern consumerism.

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As long as other countries are dieing our consumers are happy...

 

Win

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You either pay the premium for the imported BEV, or pay for a cheaper car, and gas.

It's a bit better now, but the break even point for EVs is often longer than the life expectancy for the car. Probably not now either, once you factor in the higher depreciation.

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The irony in China is all the coal driven electricity providers. Nothing's ever quite like it seems.

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Wrong again John

However, coal's share of China's total generation mix declined to new lows during the opening six months of 2024 as output from clean power sources scaled new highs. Fr

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Lies, damn lies, and statistics. While what you are saying is true, China continues to burn record or near record amounts of coal. China: coal consumption 2023 | Statista

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They are still building more coal powerplants than anyone else on earth.

So it's like having 10 cigarettes and thinking you can cancel it out by eating a carrot.

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I had a plug in hybrid and got rid of it before it was going to drop too much in value. Before I did that I was thinking seriously about going BEV but I changed my mind when I saw the huge very quick depreciation on BEV’s. So I have gone back to petrol. A car that someone will want to buy off me second hand. And I have a spare tire again which is great. People who buy electric to save some energy costs are going to be disappointed. The depreciation they will experience will far outweigh the cost of electricity versus petrol. I miss driving electric but I am not prepared to be slaughtered when I try to sell one or trade one in.

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The new technology is moving so fast it’s not holding its value, so I will invest in old technology. I’m not sure that plan will work either. Kind of like buying a Nokia when the iPhone came out because the iPhone would be superseded. 

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If the depreciation is as bad as you say it is. Why not buy a 2-year-old electric vehicle and take advantage of that depreciation?

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I would have to give it away as it’s third hand by then. I am not prepared to lose that much. Now I have a Japanese petrol car that will depreciate much slower than a bev. It has a full spare and is a very popular family car so it will be easy to shift in the future. (It’s not a RAV4.). When I was selling my PHEV I quickly found out that like BEVs they were not popular and you are going to take a large hit when selling them. As far as I am concerned buying petrol is far cheaper a cost than the depreciation electrics cars are currently being hit with. Throw in the extra tyre wear, extra insurance costs and road user costs you are well behind the eight ball. I have not talked about range anxiety and the time delays when recharging yet.

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Been driving EVs for 6 years you save money and don't have to worry about replacing anything other than the air filter current set of tyres are 55k km's. The only argument for buying a new ice car is to keep oil producing nations afloat. 

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The only argument for buying a new ice car is to keep oil producing nations afloat. 

Or if you live rurally, tow anything, drive long distances for leisure or work, value an established network of fuel stations etc etc. You can't tip a bucket of electricity into an EV and keep driving right away.

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Too logical

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I never even consider the resale of any car I buy, I don't treat them like fashion items, I drive them till they are knackered or till my needs change.  Half the cars I've owned left on a tow truck to the scrapyard, others were given to family members/friends.  Last one was mechanically sound but cosmetically very rough, sold that and it debuts in a new life as a racecar early next year.

You're also forgetting the servicing costs.  So far I'm out a set of tyres and a pair of wiper blades after 55k & 2.5years.

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You're also forgetting the servicing costs.

If you're buying a European car, maybe. But a well engineered Toyota or Honda should get by on a small amount of consumables. Except maybe oil changes, sparkplugs and oil.

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Yea this. I used to buy second hand less than $5k, but last vehicle was new and is seven years old. Very little to service and run and expect at least twenty years from it. Did still have an old 1991 bighorn $3500, used it for the last 23 years but just sold for $200. 

Resale worries are overrated.

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Have to agree with you on that, even for European cars.  Had an absolutely top spec 3.2 litre six-cylinder VW Passat.   Cost 24 k sold it for 1.5k after 10 years of great driving.  Could've had a Camry but ...

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..

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How many vehicles are you ripping through ? When I add up my resale loses on the few cars I have owned over my lifetime and I'm heading for 60 now they have been minimal. One car I owned for over 20 years I actually sold it for $500 more than I bought it for. People are losing more money on an EV just driving it off the lot than I have lost in lifetime. 

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Not many, last one I had for 8 years and put 150,000kms on. When I was younger I did own a couple of cheap bangers that we're already getting near the end of their lives when I got them.

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If the depreciation is as bad as you say it is. Why not buy a 2-year-old electric vehicle and take advantage of that depreciation?

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Check out the give away prices and financing in PRC, plus government sales subsidies and yet losing money on every sale. How long could this last?

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Well since some of their new models are just as good as Tesla ( but cheaper) quite far I suspect. It's all about scale.

China set a new record, with 1.3 million units sold in November 2024, which almost entirely came from battery electric vehicle sales (BEV) in that month, and brands including Geely, Tesla, and Changan sold the most.

China foresaw ICE death 10 years ago 

  • It is worth noting that, on an international scale, China is projected to generate the highest revenue in the Electric Vehicles market in 2024, with a staggering US$376.4bn.
  • This highlights China's dominant position in the global Electric Vehicles market industry.
  • China's electric vehicle market is booming, with government subsidies and a strong infrastructure driving rapid adoption
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and brands including Geely, Tesla, and Changan sold the most.

BYD. In China, no one comes close in sales volumes to BYD.

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Or profits. Most of these Chinese BEV makers are running losses, BYD being one of few exceptions.

So almost impossible for anyone else to sell BEVs, when it's a race to the bottom.

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Has anyone tried selling a 5y-old Tesla?! you might lose 20-40K  

I bought my petrol Rav4 last year and lost 2K  

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Yer but you won't spend $20k on fuel and maintenance in those 5 years ...

I think you meant sold and you lost $22k

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Yeah but you also paid 20 grand more for the Tesla.

Next up, Baywatch learns what a net positive return is.

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Is that my when I burn you off from 0 to hundred in 6 seconds  at the lights feeling?

Battery swaps are fast becoming a realty and 10 min charging...time for a coke and a pie and a quick comment on Interest.co.nz for some dopamine  hits.

 

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Battery swaps are not becoming a reality in NZ. The hoops that Tesla has to go through to get remanufactured packs into the country is ridiculous. They have managed to create a loophole that allows them to do it as they are required to offer an 8yr battery warranty as part of legal requirements. Good luck getting a battery replacement for a Tesla that is outside its manufacturers battery warranty. You can't get the remanufactured battery packs into the country as a private importer. Also, you can't replace individual cells because of the way that 3 and Y packs are made. Checkout any of the various 3 and Y battery teardown videos and you'll see why.

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Yeah, calling BS on this.

Let's see you cite the regulation which requires them to offer an 8 year battery warranty in NZ.

And LFP packs in the RWD 3 and Y aren't hard to teardown. (https://youtu.be/nWrmE25H1Gc).  That's 80% of the Teslas.  The long range and performance models are a bit harder, because they use cylindrical cells, and there's about 3000 cells so a shit ton of connections to separate and reweld if you need to.

 

I don't think Shanghai has moved to structural packs with 4680 cells, which is the pack that is unrepairable because it's just a lump of pink foam once it's sealed up. Pretty sure they are doing the CATL CTP with prismatic cells, which won't be much different to the LFP prismatic cells. But I wouldn't worry, there will be plenty of donor wrecks once you are outside of warranty.

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The issue for Tesla has been getting remanufactured replacement packs into the country. Trying to ship used car BEV batteries internationally is incredibly challenging and they have been given dispensation to do so because of the 8yr Tesla battery warranty that they globally offer. They simply stated we can't fulfill our legal obligations if you prevent us from shipping used battery packs to NZ.

Every battery pack that has been replaced in a Tesla is with a remanufactured (used pack). They take the age and milage of your vehicle when the battery failed and give you a remanufactured pack with simliar age and milage. Model X and S are notorious for this.

The video you have linked is great. It shows what the modules of an LFP battery look like. Now, pull the module apart and change a cell without inadvertently creating a bomb.....good luck.....

A prismatic cell is simply a bunch of pouches inside a metal outer.

In the US and EU, highly skilled independants can repair individual cells. The ones I have had dealings with are all ex Tesla employees. I doubt we have any in NZ.

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Who gave Tesla dispensation exactly, and what regulation exactly prevents import of battery packs? 

And only Tesla huh? What about all the other manufacturers with EVs in NZ?  There have been several Hyundai EVs that needed replacement batteries. https://www.hyundai.co.nz/battery-recall

And nobody repairs cells, they identify the failed cells and swap them out.  

And finally, why does it smell like I'm downwind of a large male bovine?

 

 

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Tesla had to negotiate with the shipping lines as they all refuse to carry used EV packs. They officially received dispensation because of the global warranty obligation. I imagine the shipping lines also didn't want to run the risk of losing the car business. 

The Hyundai battery recall was physically replacing old with new or a software update. You can ship new EV battery packs and components on the shipping lines.

Correct, people replace cells by opening up the module and removing the problem cell/s. Try doing that with a prismatic LFP battery and see how you get on.

Also, ask yourself why no manufacturer offers the service of replacing individual cells?

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Scale, time and liability.  Not worth training a guy or three,  setting up a workshop of gear in NZ for a handful of batteries a year.  Move it all to central point where there is enough volume to make it a full-time role for a few guys. And you aren't going to keep customers waiting months while you ship their pack to a central hub and back, so "here's one we prepared earlier"...

Maybe once the battery chemistry and designs have stabilised and volumes increased we'll get a battery refurb facility in Australia; and there will be private operators doing it outside warranty once we start getting decent volume of cars out of warranty,  (there already are for Nissan leafs and Prius hybrid packs)

And splitting a few spot welds, removing the bad cell, then reassembling doesn't look all that hard on the LFP packs.  But corporate elf and safety no doubt makes it much more difficult than it needs to be. And then testing etc.  Time consuming so you need scale to automate the process.

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Is that my when I burn you off from 0 to hundred in 6 seconds at the lights feeling?

If that's the most enjoyment that expense can buy you, I suppose.

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And the serenity...

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Not commuting at all is serenity.

This is a list of low value nice to haves. Unless you're wanting something for track day, that you can also have a whisper quiet conversation in. Huge market I'm sure.

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Whatever .

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The market doesn't favour off the mark acceleration and cabin noise, over utility, ease of use and cost of ownership. Otherwise way more Rolls Royces and sports cars would've been sold over the past few decades.

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As recently as three or four years ago I saw EVs as a woefully unready and underdone tech which would not be ready for prime time for another decade. Keeping an eye on EV developments out of China, I've been shocked at the lightning fast model and battery development going on there. Now I reckon EVs are going to be unstoppable from 2027 to 2028 on. But there are two huge caveats to this. In New Zealand our generation, transmission and distribution system will collapse if even every fourth house runs a 7KW AC fast charger. And secondly, anyone who buys an EV in the next year or so will be stuck with an obsolescent lemon once solid state batteries and much more advanced vehicle technology comes online. Being able to charge from 20% to 80% in ten minutes is going to be the standard. EV's aren't cars, they are closer to being mobile phones, and a five year old mobile phone has negligible resale value.

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It takes about 30 mins for a 7kW charger to replenish the typical drivers' daily kms.  There are a lot of 30min slots between 9pm and 7am.

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Yeah sadly most people are lazy and don't want to manage their vehicles range.

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But will drop a hundy each week and buy a pie and coke at the same time...go figure.

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What are you on about?   Grab charger lead, plug it in.  Unplug before you leave.  Takes about 4 secs if you have a charger installed in a sane place.

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This already excludes over half the cars being used. 

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Wtf do you mean?

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That's the number of cars that aren't parked in a garage.

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You don't need a garage.  I don't have a garage, seem to get along just fine.

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You really need to stop thinking things through and start putting the barriers up like most of the sheeple.

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Yeah, it's amusing watching people tell me that things I do regularly are not practical.   

 

Still waiting for my EV to spontaneously burst into flames. I did have marshmallows put aside for the event, but I am weak willed and ate them.  

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I don't know how practical a person you are, but I can't really argue that what you're doing isn't practical, for you. But it's the height of naivety to assume your experience is something everyone else will want to (or can) replicate.

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Gradually, Then Suddenly

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Something has to dramatically alter the value proposition first.

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Go back and read it again, you missed the point 

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Which part, the bit where you think your situation is infinitely replicable, or the strawman you're arguing against who thinks fire potential is a big detractor?

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Yep, we're done.  Not wasting any more time on you.

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Apart from writing that, instead of nothing.

I'm pleased it's working out for you. If the benefits of these were obviously innate then the sales would be higher. Understanding why they're not (aside from you needing to think the only reason they're not is people's partisanship), could offer useful insight into what extra needs to be done for things to change in a substantive way.

Spose it's just better for you to think it's just because everyone else is somehow stupid or inferior.

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What, like thinking the only reason people aren't falling over themselves en masse to buy one is because the gummint took away a subsidy?

It's hard to deny the advances in tech here are impressive, but it's also short sighted to not identify these don't solve everyone's problems in their current incarnation.

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People buy EV's because they think they are going to save money. Saving the planet has nothing to do with the purchasing decision, its just a woke ideal. EV's will get there, the technology is getting better but right now most people will stay with ICE.

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They just want the latest tech and justify the purchase with dreams of saving the planet, cost of ownership and having access to green loans. It's the same people who have to have the latest iPhone becuase they just do. It's like they can't be seen in public without one.

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Ok let me guess you drive a shiny Ute or SUV?

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I have a Model Y performance as a daily and a 911 for fun. I like to drive and the Tesla gives me zero joy, but it is great at what it does. Every time I know i'm going to drive my 911 I get excited. The looks, smell, sound and handling is like nothing else. It's a proper event every time. I also understand that I'm not the norm and most people simply want something that gets them from A to B. My kids prefer the car that has Netflix in it.....

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People buy EV's because they think they are going to save money. 

Christmas shopping reminds me that plenty of people still hold on to the ethos of "the more I spend the more I save."

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And the great transition to way less travel continues...

 

Especially private use.

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That we're lagging with transport electrification shouldn't really be a surprise, given the lack of a concrete development path for our public transport (that would let us leave our cars at home) or decarbonising heavy and long-haul freight.

The highlights:

  • There's the odium attached by some to the virtue signalling involved in ostentatious and evangelical EV use, now not offset by a subsidy.
  • Public transport that is hopelessly fragmented, meaning useful inter- and intra-city transport co-ordination is close to non-existent: try checking surfboard or a drop-saw and toolbox on to a bus that will drop you miles from where you actually need to go.
  • A terrible EV charging network, and a power grid that's got capacity and reliability issues already. Coupled to battery heavy freight vehicles, that would have driven network improvement, being impractical because battery mass eats too far in to payload: the charging station network isn't going to improve any time soon.
  • The high purchase price and savage depreciation in comparison to used ICE vehicles that so many need to participate in work and wider society, because our city forms, underwritten by rigorous professional ideology, are so heavily zoned.
  • That many of the EVs don't meet our tastes. Example: we have one of the highest rates for tow-bar fitment in the world and many EVs have marginal tow ratings at best.
  • A rail network that seems to be being ground down by fiscal paralysis, ideological absolutism, and special interest patronage all grappling with each other, so there's no real prospect of a fully functional rail system, let alone electrification that would decarbonise freight - admittedly at a hell of a cost.

 

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One issue with the economics is the expenses are all in slightly more efficient versions of what already exists.

The jump from no roads or rail, to having personal and public transport at a much greater speed and range than a horse, is significant. The added benefit of upgrading rail to electric, or a car, is very marginal.

Global EV sales have been climbing, but that's driven by China, who are still building car ownership from a relatively lower base, and have adopted an aim of leading in EV manufacturing, at an economic loss (which helps drive sales via low prices).

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I think you're right: virtue signalling aside, what practical advantages of use do EVs offer?

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Potentially to the "Average" person they will be seen as a simpler solution with less service costs to getting about for A to B. If you are a mechanic however and know how to look after an ICE vehicle because you have been doing everything yourself on them for the last 40 years you will run screaming from an EV. An EV just doesn't tick any of the boxes for me, maybe one day when they start making decent affordable single seater or two seater sports cars I will look at one. The battery tech and the weight of them has a long way to go, I think we will end up getting lightweight ICE cars when we are finally forced that way due to declining fossil fuels before ICE finally dies. The good news for ICE owners is that EV owners are extending the enjoyment for us rowing the 6 speed manual gearbox.

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I've driven a couple of BEVs, and just have to say that fun and driver involvement is definitely well down the list of designer priorities.

Then again, that's true of most modern cars: very good but joyless. A bit like driving a cellphone.

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The Ionic 5 N looks like fun, but that's because it's mimicking the experience of an ICE with a manual gearbox.

But yes most modern cars (of any propulsion) are leaning way more towards disposable fashion items.

Every vehicle today should be made to last 40-50 years with nominal servicing. Instead it's closer to 10, because we've prioritized fashion over durability.

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Well, my load hauler is a 30 year old 4WD Hiace that seems set for another few years yet and is more useful than a Swiss army knife. But it's a commercial Toyota so built to do enormous mileages.

On 478kW the Ionic will certainly shift, but will it be fun? And I'm not sure about a heavy vehicle on narrow sidewall tyres on NZ roads: I've blown a couple of those on a relatively light hatchback on the seal, and destroyed others on metalled roads. The faux-gearchanges and piping an artificial sound-track in to the cabin suggests they know they have an issue with sensory engagement.

The most fun cars I've driven have been light, nimble, simple and not particularly powerful. The old Alfa Sud, Fiat 127, Lotus Elise, and MX-5 all make me grin.

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Your missing the point ..many if us don't want to drive at all!

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And for those of us who have to, and want to enjoy the process?

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For new tech to achieve mass market adoption, they usually have to offer a much superior experience, ideally at a lower cost.

For something like Spotify vs Physical Media, Digital vs film cameras, the advantages are fairly distinct, outside of niche instances. The electric car, is not quite there.

We'll know when that happens, because they'll dominate new car sales.

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I'll have what he is having...

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Paint thinners, aisle 12 at Bunnings..

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Hah, so not capable of a reasoned discussion with me, but more than happy to fling some poo.

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Sorry your the guy at the BBQ were your partner recognizes your angst and moves in to save you.

Let's pick up this conversation this time next year and again see how wrong you are...as with many things which we can track daily.

 

 

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Reasoned?  When you are doing nothing but loading the dice.   Hmmm, no, got far too "20 miles in the snow uphill both ways" for me.

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