The first political poll of the New Year shows the Labour Party ahead of the National Party for the first time in almost two years.
A Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll conducted in early January and released on Friday afternoon showed Labour rising to 30.9%, up four points from the group’s previous survey, while National fell by a similar amount to 29.6%.
Labour last polled ahead of National in April 2023 when Chris Hipkins took over the leadership and enjoyed a short honeymoon ahead of the election campaign. The party ended up with only 27% of votes by election night, well below National’s 38%.
However, some of these voters appear to be swinging back towards Labour as the economy worsens and watches the coalition struggle with a handful of thorny issues. These include Health NZ’s budget troubles, the inter-islander ferry fiasco, historic Treaty protests, and an inability to balance the Crown accounts.
While the Coalition has been delivering on its promises, such as with income tax cuts, and working steadily on structural economic reforms, voters don’t seem happy with the progress.
Recent polls have shown the gap between the Government and the opposition narrowing, and a leaked internal poll from November even showed Labour nudging ahead. The TPU–Curia poll released on Friday seemingly confirms National has been losing support.
The results of the poll wouldn’t see a change in government, if an election were held today, as the three party coalition would still win enough seats to hold a narrow majority.
It showed the Act Party down two points at 10.8% and New Zealand First up almost 3 points at 8.1%. The Green Party was up 1.2 points at 9.5% and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2% to 5.3%. Vote counts for smaller parties can appear volatile due to margins of error.
The poll also found 53% of respondents thought the country was moving in the wrong direction, with only 39% thinking the opposite. That’s a net wrong direction result of -14%, down a whopping 17 points from the December poll and at its lowest level since the Coalition formed in 2023.
Individual polls are just a snapshot in time and have a 3.1% margin of error, which means party support could be significantly higher or lower than these numbers suggest.
Interest.co.nz’s own polling average shows National in the lead with 32% support to Labour’s 30% but the gap between the political blocs is the closest it has been since before the election.
72 Comments
My thinking is that nz thought they were getting John Key 2.0. but luxon just can't relate to people. In other words he aint another smiling assassin. Just doesn't have the compentance to sell himself to everyday people. His PR team is shockingly inept. No matter what party is in its difficult to sell people on making do with less.
Really I have three of the younger gen, if I get taxed anymore the easy option is to tell them it will come straight out of what I was going to leave you when I pass...so decision all theirs...I'm fairly confident on which way they will vote once I spell that out to them.
Meritocracy is about the individual gaining credit and status/power because the skills/talent/motivation they possess themselves, not that which is handed to them with a silver spoon.
In fact I would suggest the majority of kids receiving sizeable inheritances are less likely to have meritous traits. If you think that a meritocracy is to do with the family passing on wealth/power/status, the word you are looking for is oligarchy.
I'm not going to beat up on you for this statement, but this is an extremely obvious example of how policy should not be made. Large inheritance is an exceptional individual circumstance that quite literally only applies to those who have substantially more than they need. Those scenarios are already far more influential in our tax and political policies than they ever should have been.
FCM,
"if I get taxed anymore" You cannot seriously believe that this is a high tax country. Just look across the pond and you will see a country with a higher top rate on income, with a CGT and with property taxes. How about the UK? All these and an Inheritance Tax.
If i was being uncharitable, I would suggest that you are simply greedy. You no doubt want all the benefits of an advanced economy; good education, healthcare, transport, social services etc, but you just don't want to pay for them. Sounds as though you are an ACT supporter.
David Seymour wanting to have a debate, which is a principle of democracy going back thousands of years vs TPM who believe that screaming at people in Te Reo is the way forward. Nice one TPM. Oh, and the Greens and Labour pretty much doing the same but without so much vigor.
This is the beginning of 2025not the beginning of election year 2026. All the usual partisans to the fore on here as inevitable just should keep their powder dry. Personally I am disenchanted with the whole damn lot, the parties themselves, on offer which at least makes the choice simpler as per Mr Trotter’s cynical advice - vote for the least worst.
Is it really a surprise that Luxon is weak? He was parachuted into a safe seat, never having faced a serious political challenge in his life. He was rushed through as leader and as it turns out, was clearly promoted above his ability.
He has yet to get National above 40% in any poll. A feat I dont think any elected prime minister in the MMP age has failed to achieve. John key on his worse day didnt poll below 40.
If the opposition actually get their act together, the next election will be seriously competitive.
If the opposition actually get their act together, the next election will be seriously competitive.
Would be nice if it was a competition for best party/PM, rather than least worst like the last couple of elections. I prefer not to have to choose between different flavours of excrement.
The problem is that there are mainly two demographics: dyed-in-the-wool boomers who vote for the same party regardless, and millenials who vote personality politics.
The upcoming Gen Z voters will basically vote for whoever Taylor Swift endorses.
Nobody votes policy.
Labour ahead of National, but still unable to form a government? Really?
Stuff reports that:'Based on these results, seats in the House would see National down six seats to 38, with Labour gaining five seats to 39. The Greens would gain one seat to 12, while ACT would drop three to 14 seats. New Zealand First would pick up 3 seats to 10, and Te Pati Maori would remain on seven seats.'This means the centre-right coalition would be down six seats to 62, still enough to govern, while the combined seats for the centre-left bloc would be up by six to 58.'
But hey, Winston's about to surrender his deputy PM job to Seymour, and his continued enthusiasm for the present coalition can be doubted. And maybe Labour might be more comfortable with NZ First as a partner than Te Paati Māori.
A Labour-Greens-NZFirst coalition (39+12+10=61) could form a government, with TPM (7) raging on the very-cross benches, leaving a diminished committed-capitalist opposition of National and Act (38+14=52).
I've been thinking about the potential foreign property buyers scheme. They say it won't affect regular Kiwis because of the price level but what about the below situation:
1. The Kiwis that currently buy $5m houses get outbid by foreigners who are willing to pay $6m. It only needs a small amount of sales to set the new market price.
2. So these Kiwis have to look at the current $4m properties and before long bid them up to $5m as that's what they can afford.
3. The Kiwis that previously bought at the $4m level get outbid by the above and so they look at the current $3m properties and before long those properties are bid up to $4m.
4. This sequence continues until those that could afford a basic house get outbid by those that could previously buy nicer houses.
In the end the Kiwis end up with a worse house and some miss out completely.
Is this a likely reality or am I missing something?
Are you really surprised ? They dumbed the whole education system down after the dropped SC & UE, its that simple. I have been banging on about it for years. Eventually they will reintroduce it or an even more universally accepted standard like the Cambridge exams, at which point they will discover the standard of teachers is no longer up to the task either.
Long may the wokesters, "gender" nutters, and racists in the Labour/Green/Racist parties stay out of power.
Hipkins and half of his stooges don't know what a woman is.
The Racists want to see NZ turned into a Maori Ethnostate, and
The identitarian nutters believe that everything done by white adult human males who wear men's clothing is inherently racist, sexist, and 'phobic in every way possible BECAUSE they are white, male, and adults.
Why would ANYONE actually vote for any of those?
We need 'None of the above' as an option.
You don't get to choose who you vote for atm, just which flavour you want. All your candidates were chosen from a pool of psychophants who kissed the right arses to get to be the candidate nomination.
What would NZ look like if the electorate revolted and voted in all [ahem, were there many last time?] the independent candidates instead?
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