The first political poll of the New Year shows the Labour Party ahead of the National Party for the first time in almost two years.
A Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll conducted in early January and released on Friday afternoon showed Labour rising to 30.9%, up four points from the group’s previous survey, while National fell by a similar amount to 29.6%.
Labour last polled ahead of National in April 2023 when Chris Hipkins took over the leadership and enjoyed a short honeymoon ahead of the election campaign. The party ended up with only 27% of votes by election night, well below National’s 38%.
However, some of these voters appear to be swinging back towards Labour as the economy worsens and watches the coalition struggle with a handful of thorny issues. These include Health NZ’s budget troubles, the inter-islander ferry fiasco, historic Treaty protests, and an inability to balance the Crown accounts.
While the Coalition has been delivering on its promises, such as with income tax cuts, and working steadily on structural economic reforms, voters don’t seem happy with the progress.
Recent polls have shown the gap between the Government and the opposition narrowing, and a leaked internal poll from November even showed Labour nudging ahead. The TPU–Curia poll released on Friday seemingly confirms National has been losing support.
The results of the poll wouldn’t see a change in government, if an election were held today, as the three party coalition would still win enough seats to hold a narrow majority.
It showed the Act Party down two points at 10.8% and New Zealand First up almost 3 points at 8.1%. The Green Party was up 1.2 points at 9.5% and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2% to 5.3%. Vote counts for smaller parties can appear volatile due to margins of error.
The poll also found 53% of respondents thought the country was moving in the wrong direction, with only 39% thinking the opposite. That’s a net wrong direction result of -14%, down a whopping 17 points from the December poll and at its lowest level since the Coalition formed in 2023.
Individual polls are just a snapshot in time and have a 3.1% margin of error, which means party support could be significantly higher or lower than these numbers suggest.
Interest.co.nz’s own polling average shows National in the lead with 32% support to Labour’s 30% but the gap between the political blocs is the closest it has been since before the election.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.