An average of recent voter polls shows roughly equal levels of support for the left and right political blocs, suggesting a hypothetical election held today could easily swing in either direction.
This should come with a clear health warning, as the three polls shifting the average are not the most high quality. One was leaked by Labour, another was a Roy Morgan poll which often has unusual results, and the last was done by a relatively new pollster.
However, all three show Labour and its allies picking up enough support to match or beat the Coalition parties if an election were held now. These polls mostly came after the hīkoi and around the Government’s one year anniversary.
National won 38% of the vote in October last year, easily beating Labour on 27%, but that gap has since shrunk almost seven percentage points to 33.5% and 30.5%, respectively.
The gap between the left and right blocs has narrowed from 11.2 percentage points in the election results to just 2.5 points in our latest average — close enough that a simple proportional allocation of seats would result in a hung Parliament.
Actual control of Government could come down to whether there was an overhang due to electorate results, or even the specifics of the Sainte-Laguë method used to hand out seats.
The change in the average has been driven by less support for National and more for Labour and Te Pāti Māori, while others have held fairly steady. This could suggest some centrists have moved back to Labour, while some on the left have shifted to Te Pāti Māori after the hīkoi.
Another explanation could be that those who supported National, expecting them to deliver better economic or health outcomes may be frustrated by slow progress on both fronts.
The Coalition increased funding for health in its first budget but that was not enough to offset through a raft of negative stories plaguing the portfolio.
It has scaled back plans for Dunedin hospital after it got too expensive, a commissioner was parachuted into Health NZ after it blew its budget on new nurses, and new cancer drugs were only funded after a big backlash.
An IPSOS poll from October found 62% of New Zealanders believed staff shortages were the biggest problem facing the healthcare system. Health NZ only offered jobs to half the nurses who graduated this year, much fewer than in previous years.
The proportion of people who thought a lack of investment was the main problem increased from 18% in 2023 to 25% this year, despite the funding increase.
Promises to fix the economy have also not amounted to much yet. It would not be rational to expect overnight fixes but voters were promised progress during the election campaign, and the clock is ticking.
The economy is about 0.3% smaller than it was on election day and unemployment is more than a percentage point higher. Inflation and interest rates have fallen as a result of these bad numbers, but the Government can’t take credit for one without the other.
Things are set to improve but nobody is predicting a boom. The Reserve Bank has forecast about 2.4% annual growth for the next few years, but the OECD expects a slower recovery with 1.4% next year and 2.1% in 2026.
Political players have been debating whether ongoing spending cuts will help or hinder the recovery. Macroeconomic theory suggests it shouldn’t matter. It is the Reserve Bank’s role to adjust interest rates to accommodate changes in government spending.
After all, money is simply a tool for organizing and exchanging resources, which make up the real economy. If the Government uses fewer of those resources, lower interest rates should encourage private entities to make up the difference.
But the real world is complicated and economic theory does not always pan out perfectly. It assumes the private sector is willing and able to step up immediately, which may not always be the case.
There may be barriers to entry that the private sector cannot overcome, particularly in areas dominated by the Crown, such as healthcare or infrastructure.
If the Government wants to pull back on spending without killing economic growth, it needs to make sure barriers to private sector investment are cleared — or else face an election defeat in 2026.
47 Comments
It is hardly surprising. One year on and the present regime can hardly boast of significant improvements that would make “the man on the street” feel his lot has significantly improved. At times like this incumbent governments are vulnerable to incidents and stories, think Bayley, that can be little more than trivial, but impact negatively beyond their scale and this is inevitably is more telling when a leader is more colourless than colourful. Two years left and yes certainly, this government needs to substantiate much more progress to regain both confidence and popularity from the electorate.
It is unprecedented, in NZ’s history at least, to enter parliament and at the end of your first term emerge as a Prime Minister. Yet Mr Luxon inherited a caucus in disarray, beset with scandals and exposure of some pretty unsavoury mps, and he certainly seems to have righted that ship, the crew discipline wise at least. Probably if he can now get the good ship New Zealand sailing well in the right direction he will lead into a second term. Had he though had a longer apprenticeship in parliament, before becoming PM he may have realised he is not a natural politician, nor an exactly articulate or proficient debater or interviewee. Six and a half years of it might be as much as he can sustain himself.
Or this one https://youtu.be/rMePrwQfT5I?si=5ITWnZk9rWV6mRM9
I've posted the RM NZ poll result link on Interest all year, whoever the results favoured.
On the most recent one, I also noted the inconsistency between the poll result & the Govt Confidence rating: "The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 18pts to 104 in November – the first time Government Confidence has been in positive territory above 100 for nearly three years since January 2022."
The polls are a waste of time, absolutely no accuracy whatsoever.
The ones that they poll are the ones that are demanding and normally lefties!
How anyone could possibly expect everything to be rosie in the first year when the books and other things Labour touched was decimated and for worse?
This was always going to happen. Labour were punished because of their covid response, especially by Aucklanders. Luxon should have won with Act as the only supporting partner. Because of Luxon’s inability to relate to women especially he got Winston. At the last election National needed a leader that was charismatic but they didn’t have one just like Labour. NZ needs an inspiring politician to lead us like we have needed before.
Being ecstatic about NACT extractists sucking any life left out of the NZ environment is a hard sell. I guess stupidity is genetic, because these people are clones of every ignorant born to rule prick throughout the ages.
Even when the evidence of biosphere collapse rises like a tsunami of pain ahead of us, it's pedal to the metal. Back on track. Duh!
"economic theory does not always pan out perfectly".
Perhaps the understatement of the year. How about; economic theory seldom pans out perfectly?
If anyone doubts that, try reading Econned by Yves Smith. To quote Robert Skidelsky; "A wonderful book which combines firsthand knowledge of financial markets with a devastating attack on the scientific pretensions of economics".
Exactly right Whitney. See all the characters in the research industry protesting right now. But they had produced anything useful they would not be worrying about their jobs. Would have been a good option to do that, but they went off piste.
Mind you many have done quite well with badgering government for money, rather thanby being useful. It's a path that often works.
Business confidence polls do, we haven't seen a "right direction" of regular people poll in positive territory for quite a while now.
The problem is business sentiment surveys always track National-led governments, but not actual favourable business conditions. If you look at the graph of business confidence against economic growth, it's not correlated one bit. During the last Labour govt business confidence only ticked positive briefly in 2021, but many businesses (say construction, real estate, domestic tourism) did their best trading ever in those years. I get that confidence implies they feel sure that the govt is in their corner, however it's debatable whether that helps them.
So far basically everything they have touched has turned to sh*t. Almost every metric is heading in the wrong direction. In summary - Economy worse, unmployment going up, migration to Australia highest ever, health waiting lists going up, infrastructure being cancelled, police numbers going down, crime increasing, boot camps failing, business closures highest in years, government deficit also highest ever and crown-maori relations going backwards, house building reversing...
But hey, at least Luxon has 9 comms staff to keep churning out the terrible social media posts to an ever decreasing audience of Nat fanboys.
Has any Government ever been so unprepared for power? I thought Labour in 2017 was bad, but they didn't do this much damage in such a short time.
Not really that surprising that the public sentiment is turning negative so quickly.
The problem is they never won with a landslide to do anything radical, but keep acting like they did. Labour did that too, but they actually did have a landslide win, it just didn't mean what they thought it did.
This coalition were brought in to right the ship but do little more. They then sunk the ship so it's not necessarily surprising the halo is wearing off. Incumbency is dangerous these days. I wouldn't be surprised if we changed government at every election for a while, as we seek out the least worst.
The least worst. A prospect that is hardly unlikely next election. Unless things change exceptionally though it is difficult to visualise the electorate being anymore enthusiastic about the alternative coalition on offer. Labour has not quelled the notion that the party is dominated by their Maori caucus. Combine that with the similar elements in The Greens and then TPM and you are not hard pressed to arrive at the perception of a faction come bloc, that will pursue policy based on racial selectivity. There was mounting indications of that direction already in Labour’s last term. Last time the electorate evidenced its reaction to such a prospect and as said, on present standings, is unlikely to differ next election.
I think a large part of the miscalculation of the current government is how much race policy was behind the change of govt. If you consider all the polling changes are due to race, why are people leaving the Nats for Labour instead of Act?
I suspect a large chunk of voters just don't care, or haven't reached the threshold to care. Least worst will come down to economy etc.
Surprised how patient NZ has been with Luxon’s coalition. It seemed clear from the outset that he would compromise just about everything for his new management gig. How many more times will he call us clients before they make the decision to roll him? Not much to replace him with will drag it on for another year perhaps.
Something I find interesting is both the extremes of the left and the right seek to demonise facts and expertise.
You see the right calling out the "activist judiciary", "legacy media", "career politicians", "so-called experts". In other words, people with facts at their disposal.
But a staple of every communist revolution was also discrediting/executing the "bourgeoisie", people with an education, anyone in government, landlords, teachers, lawyers. Anyone who might question the orthodoxy or quell the people's appetite for revolution. Communism is in theory a populist democracy, but that's something you see the nationalist right peddling more these days.
So yes, people with an education do tend to lean slightly left, often because focusing on an education doesn't pay. These people have time to edit Wikipedia. But once you veer further left to the anarchists and communists, it's a fair bet rational thinking has left the building.
So, whoever it is, be wary of anyone who seeks to push their message by ridiculing facts, experts and orthodoxy. It's a time-old tactic.
It's difficult to sell a story of economic success when unemployed rates are rising and the average worker doesn't feel better off. In the absence of any better ideas it appears government are hoping RBNZ slashing rates will do the heavy lifting as their policies have not.
You are going to get one next election if National don’t get rid of Luxon. A dead fish has more charisma than him. Women especially younger ones cannot relate to him at all. To remind us how rich he is was so dumb you have to worry about who advises him. I am wealthy but I don’t talk about it. Nothing pisses people off more. He only got to where he was because Labour were so unpopular post lockdowns. And who would you replace Luxon with? There is currently not one inspiring politician in parliament.
Actually, the palatable replacements for Luxon would probably be the likes of Bishop or Stanford. The thing is all three of them could easily be Labour leaders. A more conservative choice of leader would not have the skills to retain the centre swing votes that are the only reason any bloc ever wins an election, and would be self-destructive. Judith Collins comes to mind.
I've pointed out that according to this years polls the only demographic that doesn't majority support the Coalition is child bearing age women.
wrt perceptions of conservative parties his isn't a unique feature to NZ. I thought this Economist article raised quite a number of relevant points
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/03/13/why-the-growing-gulf…
A good point, however I've pointed out that there is no such thing as "supporting the coalition". The people didn't choose the make-up of the government, Luxon did.
National and Act voters tend to be wary of NZF with their slush funds, questionable connections, opposition to privatisation, and of course putting Labour in power in 2017.
NZF voters are also wary of National, being a fair slab of anti-vax, anti-UN, anti-woke and people who otherwise are unlikely to support National.
The supporters of parties in this coalition have different aims and wishes for the direction of travel. This is largely why the coalition is unable to push decisively in any given direction, the car is running two independent handbrakes this time.
In terms of "the people support it" through their vote, a coalition of Labour and National of course would represent the most votes, followed closely by National, Act and the Greens. The current mix would come third. So no, the people don't majority support these three parties in aggregate. Not even close.
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