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Voters cast their ballots as the Presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may come down to a photo-finish in crucial swing states

Public Policy / news
Voters cast their ballots as the Presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may come down to a photo-finish in crucial swing states
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the campaign trail
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the campaign trail

By Dan Brunskill and Ella Somers

Good morning and welcome to our live blog of the 2024 US election.

The race to become the next President of the United States looks likely to be a photo finish with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck-and-neck as voters cast their ballots.

Either winner would be historic. Harris would be the first woman president, while Trump would be the first convicted felon and only the second candidate to serve two non-consecutive terms. 

Harris led in national polling by about 1.5 percentage points but Trump was narrowly ahead in enough state polls to win the Electoral College. Prediction models say the race is a coin toss; it's literally too close to call.

Voting closes in various states throughout New Zealand’s afternoon and the first results can be reported. Often there has been a clear winner by the late evening but it can take weeks to count ballots cast by mail and resolve the outcome of a close election.

We’ll keep you updated throughout the day. Read on…

12:00am

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency betting market, gives Donald Trump a 62% chance of winning the election. This is much more favourable than most traditional polling averages and prediction models.

 

Polling guru Nate Silver’s forecast model gave Kamala Harris a “50.015%” chance on the eve of the election, as did the FiveThirtyEight model. The Economist’s prediction was 56% in favour of Harris, largely due to a rush of last minute polls showing her ahead in key states. 

A shock poll by famous pollster Ann Selzer showed Harris with a clear lead in Iowa, a state which Trump won easily in the past two elections. This may have been an outlier but it caused a big reaction in betting markets, with the odds swinging towards Harris.

There had been a growing consensus that Trump was likely to win and many Wall Street investors were making trades likely to pay off in that outcome; but that suddenly looks less certain. 

Iowa was not on the list of seven states expected to swing the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  – DB

9:12am: Things that happened while NZ was sleeping

  • Trump cast his ballot in Florida. (Harris voted by mail ahead of election day, casting her ballot to California.)
  • The Election Lab at the University of Florida says over 85 million people voted early. Of the advance votes cast before election day, over 46 million were in-person and over 39 million were via mail. 
  • A man was arrested by police for trying to enter the US Capitol with a flare gun and torch. Authorities say the man smelled like petrol. The Associated Press says authorities are on heightened alert for security issues around the Capitol building in Washington due to it being attacked by Donald Trump supporters in January 2021. 
  • The FBI says it’s aware of bomb threats to polling locations in several states but none of the threats have been determined to be credible “thus far”. According to the FBI, many of the bomb threats appear to have originated from Russian email domains.  – ES

9:20am:

A cartoon from Matt Wuerker, the staff cartoonist and illustrator for POLITICO. – ES

10:10am:

Yahoo Finance reported earlier that Trump Media & Technology Group stock (DJT) had been “briefly halted” because of trading volatility. Here's where the share price was at when the stock finished trading for the day in the US. – ES

10:38am:

CNN says US stocks rallied on election day, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, the Nasdaq rising 1.4% and the Dow up over 1%. This is the sixth US election in a row where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have posted gains on election day. – ES

 

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53 Comments

Please keep commenting civil today. Everyone has a view, but try not to disparage others' views. Robust commenting is ok, but please be respectful of others.

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12

Nah let's get completely bent out of shape and abuse each other about an election the vast majority of us can't even vote in. That's totally normal behaviour.

At least we can now argue about something that isn't "is house market line going up or down".

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5

Quick out the of blocks to add zero value this morning - while at the same time giving the impression that you like plonking yourself right at the top of the moral high ground. You do realise that you aren't forced to comment if you have nothing constructive to say :-)   

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3

Based on your username, you can presumably 'add value' because if you are a USKiwi I guess you can vote?

For someone like me who can observe but not participate, what actual value can be added? This is a discussion thread about the US election, and I find it genuinely strange how worked up people get about an election they cannot participate in (fair play if you are able to participate). That, to me, is more interesting of a phenomenon than either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

For the record I don't like either candidate. Gun to my head in a hypothetical scenario where I could vote in the US election, I would have voted for RFK pre joining Trump's team - despite him being bat$hit crazy - purely because I can't recall any other political candidate anywhere, ever, who has raised the elephant in the room of needing to improve the public's overall health (doesn't mean I agree with his more conspirational theories). 

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0

Nope, can't vote. Set up my username when I was based in the US working for a few years. I think anyone interested in global trade (all NZ export businesses) and anyone interested in international security will likely be quite interested in the outcome of this election. Our history with the US is significant - allies in two world wars, and who knows - they could lead us into a third. So personally, I think it's an important election regardless of whether you can vote or note.      

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3

What exactly do you want politicians to do about your health? Put taxes up on unhealthy food/activities? They already tax the legal drugs a lot and restrict advertising. Make you go for a jog? Make visibly fat people go for a jog? More cycle lanes, I heard those are not popular? Outlaw cigarettes? We tried that, but political donations go a long way these days.

RFK wants to end vaccines and remove flouride from the water supply. He should not be anywhere near control of a countries health.

Or is this just actually a ploy to further restrict healthcare access to those considered not worthy?

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0

It's just an extension of our great Kiwi pastime.  Completely hating on some stranger on the internet because they vote National or Labour, flinging all sorts of witty and humorous blended insults and hyperbole to compensate for whatever insecurities one is battling with.  

We haven't been involved in a global scale war in a long time, so the enemy is no longer some communist country halfway around the world, it's the "communist" voter down the street.  

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1

There's been a run on pitchforks and lanterns....

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0

Hope the results are clear and there will be no riots/court action. That will dictate the markets.

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0

Turnout will be key , and Trump drives people to vote, for and against him.

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1

Hope there’s a clear and uncontested result. Hope female voters determine it.

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6

I actually think it will be determined by the large block of Latino/Black US voters flocking to the Republican side, in historically record numbers.

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3

Correct. Demographics supporting Republicans have changed, voter registration favours republicans particularly in Pennsylvania. US public also has the same or worse opinion of Biden-Harris as NZ public did of Ardern-Hipkins going into last election. Inflation has hurt Americans possibly worse than here, and 80% say the country is on the wrong track. So this points to a Republican victory, and possible a clean sweep with them odds on you take the senate. I don’t know the statistics but I think it would be unlikely that a party has ever been re-elected when they are so far behind in all of the key metrics the public care about (economy, inflation, crime, border disaster being the top four) Of course I could be wrong, but I think it’s very unlikely the democrats will get back based on ‘Joy’. They haven’t been able to campaign on their record, which is very telling. I was a huge Bill Clinton fan, but democrats have gone down hill quickly through the Obama-Biden terms. They are very different now, a shadow of what they were. If they lose look for a big reset from them.

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2

Trump’s win in 2016 was carried in part by the anti establishment vote. Whatever he was, offered a clear alternative. Would seem that sentiment has re-emerged and of late possibly strengthened because Biden was very much deep in the establishment and his presidency perceived as such and Harris did not or could not get out of the shadow of that. She remained as unsubstantial and offered no significant change. As pointed out there is nothing like the financial hurt of inflation or other grievances such as immigration to motivate the people to be anti establishment.

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2

If they vote. Then there is the Puerto Rican comment , obviously hurt Trump with puerto ricans , but how many other latino minority voters will think , could be talking about us .  I think they could probably call the elelection early (media that is ), based on who they observe voting, if the young black men turn out, Trump has a chance , if its mainly women , harris is president.

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0

NZGECKO - yus we agree on something

 

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1

Why do you want females to determine it?

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2

Presumably because majority of women favour Harris and they would like her to win.

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@here - why are they favouring Harris? Policy or just cause she is a woman?  (i kind of think that perhaps woman would vote for Harris cause they don't like Trump) however Trump played a blinder yesterday check out youbtube Megan Kelly Joins trump at PA rally.   I think it was a great move by trump 

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2

"why are they favouring Harris?"

Trump's history and comments about women might have something to do with it too

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1

Fair enough - i guess i am just trying to understand if people voting because they don't like trump or they care for policy?  Maybe both.  who would you say does more for woman?  Trump or Harris?  and an example will be great?

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The right want to outlaw abortions outright, and are doing all they can to make that a reality. It is a main talking point in the election.

 

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What is the bet that Trump announces he has won way too early, before enough votes have been counted? 

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3

I'd say the only way it will be uncontested is if Trump wins. The allegations of vote tampering have been pre-loaded by Trump's campaign, so if Harris wins there will be fireworks. November 5 is Guy Fawkes Night, after all.

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1

Trump has already lodged legal challenges across multiple jurisdictions. Musk and Trump have already started complaining about vote rigging. This is the Trump strategy. 

Undermining people's faith in the democratic process is the whole thing. He'll attempt to undermine any and all written and non-written institutional norms to win. If the Democrats do the same they lose, if they don't they are disadvantaged. The only safeguard is the American people's moral compass. Brownlee made Luxon Apologise for similar tactics yesterday. I'm not sure Americans have that same moral compass at the moment.

Trump is a convicted felon and an adjudicated rapist. These are facts. He has to win, the alternative is likely prison (if the rule of law holds). Musk is in a similar position now with his lottery, there is a strong chance he will be adjudicated to have breached election laws. That's why they are trying to undermine the legitimacy of the rule of law. Pretty much every move they make is about undermining the institution of the American Government. It's the same playbook to almost every despot through the ages has used to get to the top. 

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1

It's all about the economy, the economy, the economy (and a sprinkle of border security). On that basis, I think Trump wins. 

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Which is interesting, because a lot of objective measures have the US economy doing well at the moment, or at least a lot better than other advanced economies. Why is it that people think that it isn't great? 

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4

I would suggest the massive inequality has a lot to do with it. If you put Bill Gates and me in a room the average person is a billionaire but I'm no better off.

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3

Jobs and inflation. 4% unemployment rate in an economy the size of the US is a lot of people out of work in absolute numbers. While inflation is coming down, people have been stung hard by this and have long term memories when it relates to their pockets. 

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0

The only thing that is certain at this point is that the Americans will get exactly who they deserve, and all the consequences will be what they voted for whether they like it or not.

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4

I find the electoral college malarkey, which basically sidelines every vote outside a few counties in a few states, ridiculous. Where is the one person, one vote democracy in that?

May the best woman win.

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5

The electoral college is there deliberately to prevent states from having an unfair say in election outcomes (as each state is effectively self governing within the US system) with the federal government over the top. Generally democrats lose the popular vote nationwide if the California vote is removed (its skews heavily to democrats in that state). So electoral college limits the amount of pull that that state has (along with large republican states like Texas) in the overall result.

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California also has the highest population of the states so you are removing around 11% by discounting Californians.

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That’s the system. That’s why it’s like that. Yes, unusual, but that is what they decided way back when, if I remember rightly as one of the conditions of forming the republic to begin with.

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Another question the; I think it was in the election that Trump won a piece of information came out that suggested that the Electoral Colleges are not bound by how the voters in their area voted. Is that true? How is that monitored?

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0

Yes , its true , and vice president has last say.

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States apparently have the choice to take a winner takes all approach to how the electors assign their electoral college votes. California, as an example has 54 votes, that they can contribute to a candidate (that must obtain 270 to win). I am guessing that the vote there will be 60% Harris, 40% Trump, but regardless, Harris will receive the 54 votes towards the 270, and trump will get zero even though he gets 40% of the vote. Some states assign them proportionately, but that is uncommon, and I do not think they can just decide on a whim (that would have be decided and confirmed by their state government).

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1

I'm flabbergasted! The opportunity for abuse has got to be huge! The entire principle underlying a democracy of one man/woman, one vote is undermined here by this extra layer. 

Why do they tolerate it?

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0

That's why it comes down to the swing states. Trump hardly campaigns in California (no chance of getting the 54 votes). Harris never campaigns in Texas (no chance of her getting the 40 or so votes from there). They visit, but nothing serious happens there. So most states are RED or BLUE. There is no in between so the election is decided in swing states. There are exceptions, such as when Reagan won 49 states to Carters 3, but that does not happen a lot. That's why it is a race to 270. It is not about winning the popular vote (that is just a bonus).

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0

what we do know is there will be an election, one will win and one will not.

And the one who wins will be the winner... and the winner will not be the one who didn't win.

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2

I think this was wittier in your head 

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9

either way it is ridiculous.

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My understanding of the polls is that they have been herding their results to be a tossup with the Selzer poll being more reflective of the raw data than the majority of others.

So I predict Harris will win (probably via Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) with Dems taking back the house and losing the senate.

Can't see Puerto Ricans putting up with the island of garbage joke.

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1

Yes , maybe they should publish the raw data, but that would be egg on their face.

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People can vote for whoever they want.

BUT the thing that I really can't understand is that people voting Harris say they are voting for "change". Like what sort of nonsense is that? Literally a month ago on the view she said "There is not a single thing" she would change about the Biden administration. 

So, she is the candidate of "change" from the same party and administration. Whilst Trump who is the actual  opposition is not?? 

The irony is driving me nuts...

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5

I saw some clip of her claiming staple food prices (ground beef etc) were up 50% since Covid and she was campaigning on change.  The same 3 years that she was Vice President under Biden.  

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3

Boring as to note, but turnout will be key....higher than typical turnout and Harris should win.

 

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0

I wouldn't put much stock on the crypto betting market as a predictor, I would say Republicans are far more likely to bet and be into crypto as compared to Democrats 

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5

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that votes for Trump
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That voted not for Trump this election day.

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0

Landslide for Kamala, she will take all seven swing states.

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2

Either winner would be historic. Harris would be the first woman president, while Trump would be the first convicted felon

Enough said!

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2

Kamala is a young, black female or at least by todays standards that's what she identifies as so she will pull more young, black female votes. Trump on the other hand is an old stale white male and a convicted felon and felons cannot vote. Its all coming down to identity politics and self inflicted issues that should never even be election issues and really they are at the bottom of the barrel in terms of a true democracy. Personally I think they are screwed either way, its more the blowback effect in other countries that I'm worried about.

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0

Therein lies a very serious situation for Trump. If he wins he either wipes the prosecution slate clean or defers cases he can’t, for at least another four years. If he loses though, the DOJ & state prosecutors will be at his throat and the GOP reps will not help much, particularly if they don’t carry either of the houses. 

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0