In New Zealand, a multi-millionaire businessman leads a right-wing governing coalition determined to put economic growth ahead of most environmental and social concerns.
Polls show a majority of voters would reluctantly re-elect this coalition, despite poor approval ratings, perhaps because the weakened opposition is fronted by an unpopular centrist.
Meanwhile, the pro-environment party—fresh off its best ever election result—has just nominated a charismatic co-leader who even rivals begrudgingly admit has talent.
This ought to be fertile soil for Green growth in the polls. And, yet the party has not meaningfully increased its support since winning 11% of the vote in the 2023 election.
It's not like the party has hit a ceiling. It has proven capable of polling at 15% or higher and Chloe Swarbrick has even flirted with the idea of aiming for a Green-led government.
But it looks nowhere close to that dream today. A series of unfortunate events have plagued the party and blocked it from playing a leading role in the opposition.
There have been serious scandals: Elizabeth Kerekere accused of bullying, Golriz Ghahraman convicted of shoplifting, Julie Anne Genter censured for intimidating an MP, and Darleen Tana implicated in migrant exploitation.
But there have also been tragedies: the sudden passing of Efeso Collins and Marama Davidson’s cancer diagnosis. These were nobody's fault but difficult for everyone.
Adding to the upheaval was the long-expected resignation of the very popular James Shaw and, if you want to rub salt in the wound, an embattled Green mayor in Wellington City.
It has been a truly apocalyptic 12-months for the party. A third of its term in opposition has been absorbed by events which would not look out of place in a Lemony Snicket notebook.
Turnaround?
But perhaps the worst is now over. Swarbrick scored a significant win on Thursday night when the party membership voted to support the ousting of Tana from Parliament.
If you haven’t been following the news, a lengthy investigation concluded Tana was aware of alleged migrant exploitation at her husband’s e-bike business — although she denies it.
The MP resigned from caucus (when they were voting to expel her) but refused to leave Parliament, and has been sitting for several months as an independent member.
She has spent much of this time taking legal action against the party, disparaging its leadership, and sometimes relying on the Act Party to cast her proxy vote in Parliament.
Swarbrick has had to cope with this challenge almost solo, although Davidson has been forced to help fend off Tana’s attacks in between cancer treatments.
To kick the rogue MP out of Parliament and reclaim her seat, the Green Party has been forced to rely on a waka-jumping rule it has furiously opposed for years.
Swarbrick needed 75% of grassroots party members to support her plan to abandon the party's principled position in favor of a more ‘realpolitik’ approach to Parliamentary politics.
It was a risky gamble but it paid off. The new co-leader secured unanimous backing during a special general meeting on Thursday night, and immediately began the waka-jump process.
She said there was “robust” debate and not all members were wholeheartedly behind the idea. However, some were swayed by the support of former co-leader Metiria Turei.
This has been a trial under fire for Swarbrick but she comes out of it looking stronger. She has proven herself as co-leader and can now focus her considerable talents on winning votes.
Rental costs keep on rising, young people are losing their jobs, and offshore investors are gearing up to do seabed mining and tap new fossil fuel wells. Plenty to talk about!
After a lost year, it is time for the Greens to take a leaf from Christopher Luxon’s book and get the party back on track.
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