He's unstoppable now. The photographic images transmitted across the planet mere minutes after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, USA, are already icons. The former President, blood on his face, raises his clenched fist above his head in a gesture of fierce defiance, as the stars-and-stripes billows theatrically behind him. Together, these elements constitute a tableau that leaves absolutely no room for doubt. Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.
In a nation that still believes in a God that blesses America, the message taken from this deadly incident is easily intuited. Had the path of the assassin’s bullet deviated by even an inch, the Republican candidate’s head would have exploded, live, on national television. Instead, the bullet nicked his ear. Another rally-goer was not so fortunate, fatally struck by the shooter who had so very nearly killed the former President, and who, just seconds later, was shot to death by Secret Service personnel. Half of America will now be firmly convinced that the Almighty’s plans for Donald J. Trump are beyond the power of mere mortals to alter.
In the hours and days following the attempted assassination, the merest of these mortals will be the incumbent President of the United States, Joe Biden. Impressively fired-up before a hugely responsive rally of Democratic supporters in Detroit, Michigan, just 24 hours before the shooting, Biden had called Trump a “loser”. But losers do not dodge bullets. Losers do not create instant and iconic campaign posters a minute after being shot. Losers do not have the presence of mind to gesture defiantly to the crowd even as their Secret Service detail is bundling them into an armoured people-carrier. No, Donald Trump may be the person who was fired-at on 13 July 2024, but it was Joe Biden who got fired.
This shocking event has made the Democratic Party’s dilemma even more acute. The contrast between the two candidates, already skewed dangerously in Trump’s favour, is now untenable. Biden looks old. He has the tentative shuffle of the frail elderly. Deprived of his teleprompter, the look of incipient panic in his eyes is painful to observe. Overwhelmingly, politically engaged “progressive” Americans have come to the same conclusion: “We love you, Joe, but it’s time to go.” Now, they have no choice.
In the years following the American Civil War, the triumphant Republican Party won election after election by waving “the bloody flag” that flew over that unparallelled American tragedy. Over the next four months, the Republicans have only to re-play “the bloody footage” of 13 July.
At the time of writing, the full identity of the shooter and his political affiliations – if any – remain unknown. But, if the profiles of previous presidential assassins are anything to go by, then he is likely to be an embittered individual, in the play of whose life Fate has repeatedly refused to assign him a meaningful role. By killing the President, the assassin seeks to become the hero of a new and deadly drama of his own devising.
Abraham Lincoln’s assassin, the actor John Wilkes Booth, unable to win genuine renown on the battlefield, fighting for his beloved Confederacy, and, perhaps, sensing that the hated leader of the Union had already won admittance to the company of the immortals, sought vengeance, and a darkly kindred immortality, by shooting Lincoln dead with a Derringer in Ford’s theatre.
Lee Harvey Oswald was a left-wing extremist who, like so many American leftists, found his fellow citizens’ indifference to the political causes that moved him so reprehensible that he determined to punish them by taking the life of the young President so much of the nation admired and loved. Marksmanship was one of Oswald’s few personal accomplishments, and unlike Trump’s would-be assassin, he didn’t miss.
There will be many Americans who received the news of Trump’s attempted assassination without surprise. For many years now the polarisation of American society has been growing increasingly perilous. Inevitably, if enough people at the margins of political discourse become convinced that there is nothing to be gained by communicating conventionally with opponents they have come to regard as irredeemably evil, then the prospect of communicating with one’s enemies “by other means” acquires an ever-greater salience.
This is what makes the identity of the sniper seen scrabbling up the roof of the building overlooking Trump’s enclosure at the Butler agricultural showgrounds so potentially explosive. If the man shot dead by Secret Service counter-snipers turns out to be an “Antifa” (anti-fascist) extremist with an online history of violent anti-Trump rhetoric, then the baying of the Right’s attack-dogs will be deafening. Fox News will declare the entire American Left guilty by association.
In response, the Democratic Party will likely tack aggressively to starboard, leaving its “progressive” wing alone and unprotected. One-time darling of the Democratic Socialists of America, New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, might find her re-election chances in free-fall. It is unlikely that political aspirants proudly asserting their radical left-wing credentials would continue to attract the same level of enthusiastic journalistic support.
But, if the assassin turns out to be a right-wing extremist, then it’s the conspiracy theorists of the Left who will go hog-wild. (What even the extreme Right would have to gain by eliminating conservative America’s most effective champion since Ronald Reagan is not exactly clear – but then, if extremists acted rationally they wouldn’t be extremists, would they?)
Certainly, it is easy to picture the nuttier sort of leftist arguing that the shooter was a fanatical anti-abortionist who believed that Trump had “gone soft” on the rights of the unborn child. Handed a rifle with defective sights by the conspirators, and told that he would be permitted to flee the scene by “God’s people”, who would then spirit him out of the country, the “patsy” assassin, having missed his target, would instantly be shot to pieces by the Secret Service. The political consequences would be pure gold for these MAGA conspirators. Trump, bloodied but unbowed, would roll on implacably to a landslide victory.
The only aspect of the assassination attempt at Butler, Pennsylvania, that lends even the tiniest skerrick of credibility to this sort of wild speculation is the undeniable fact that somebody, hauling an AR-15 automatic rifle, was able to get on the roof of a building offering a clear shot at the former President of the United States without being confronted by a heavily-armed and body-armoured “Hawkeye” from the USSS’s tactical squad. It is Close Protection 101 that all potential “sniper’s perches” must be reconnoitred, located, and neutralised. The assassin, clearly visible to multiple witnesses on the ground, should never have made it as far as the building, let alone onto the roof. The deadly attack at Butler must, therefore, constitute the most egregious failure of the US Secret Service since Dallas.
Whatever the true story turns out to be regarding the attempt on Donald Trump’s life, its most crucial element is that it was just that, an attempt. Had the assassin’s bullet found its mark and killed the “deplorables’” champion, America’s descent into widespread and murderous violence – possibly spiralling-down into civil war – would have been immediate and quite possibly irreparable. The American Republic, upon whose survival liberty and democracy continue to depend, is certainly not out of danger, not yet. But, in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, 13 July 2024, the USA also dodged a bullet.
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
151 Comments
The first two paragraphs & the ninth, here convey exactly my first thoughts. A matter of an inch, a bullet that, one way or another, could have changed the history of the world. Conversely my second thought was black humour mostly arising from the ever increasing violence and mayhem published daily in the whole nation, - Agent 86 to Chief “missed by that much.”
The bullet that missed
https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/C377/production/_133493005_trump_nyt_payable…
Pic from CNN showing massive flag flown by 2 cranes. Std at USA political rallies.
https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/ap24195841316454.jpg?c…
"Fake photo".
That picture was taken by an Associated Press photographer from a lower level. The live feed was from higher up (with President Trump in mid frame) hence the sky and the flag are not seen.
That should put your conspiracy theory to rest though I suspect you've many more from where that one came.
John, I can certainly understand the compulsion, from those of a certain political bent, to want to discredit that photo. It's an immensely powerful image, one of the best, most memorable, ever taken; an election winner. It's right up there with the iconic one showing the planting of the American flag on Iwo Jima.
Trump comes across as heroic, courageous and defiant as he stands out from those there to protect him. The American flag against the blue sky; just perfect. The patriotic American people will be deeply moved by it.
Yet he had donated $15 to a Democratic-aligned political-action group? WSJ article
"On President Biden’s inauguration day, Crooks gave $15 to the Chicago-based Progressive Turnout Project, a Democratic-aligned political-action committee that rallies voters, according to Federal Election Commission records. Pennsylvania voting records show he was a registered Republican."
Hard to know what his real motivations are this early on, its probably best to refrain from any firm statements until further down the line when the facts are more solid. But at the end of the day if he's a republican, he's just one guy. And if he's a Democrat, he's still just one guy.
This overt willingness to view and define tens of millions of people by the actions of individuals is part of what's causing so much division. Neither side of the spectrum is a monolith. Neither side of the spectrum is a hive mind. A lot of money is being made from making the average person think otherwise.
"We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us."
- Jo Cox
Random impertinent questions; Is it possible in The USA to be registered as both a republican and a democrat? Or is it a mandatory either or situation? And how do you register for an alternative third party option?
In New Zealand one can be member of one or all political parties.
It's not exactly a new thing of having people take shots against presidents even when the US was less divided is it? There's always going to be crazy people doing stupid shit like this, the fact the secret service failed to stop this before it happened is the biggest surprise to me.
"When former President Donald Trump heard his supporters chanting “hang Mike Pence” during the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, White House aides said he told them the vice president “deserves” it, according to a former White House aide who testified Tuesday to what she saw and heard during the weeks surrounding the attack."
This was at a riot that was attacking the government, because the vote went against Trump. Trump said Pence deserved to be hanged because Pence did not overturn the voting results of the election. Trump had no substantial proof at all that the election was 'rigged'.
So Trump likes to toy with dictatorship and is not against inciting violence for political outcomes. He also uses the most inflammatory language possible in his speeches, believes he should be above the law, and lies so much that nobody bothers pulling him up on it anymore. All while playing the victim.
But yeah, it is all Bidens fault for some reason.
All of that is history, obviously. You can’t change history but history can change the future and that is the looming problem. Trump will reassume the Presidency in 2025. During his last term he wielded unprecedented power. Even more so than Jackson, Lincoln and the second Roosevelt marshalled. This time round it will be more extreme. The man is undoubtedly both infallible and unstoppable in his own mind. First up will be vengeance laced with vindictiveness and his accompanying expungement from all court convictions and proceedings. After that, four years of anything can happen.
Re Trump I agree. It was Winston Churchill who once stated "There is nothing so exhilarating as being shot at without result." With his exhibited character I shudder to think of Trump's attitude now that he has experienced that. I have no doubt he heard the bullet that missed, (and if he thinks about it, the impacts of the bullets that found people behind him) and one does have to wonder what effect that will have on his metal stability. But I don't doubt his ego will rise to take advantage of it.
What next is anyone's guess. I suspect that CTs expressed hope that the US dodged a bullet is not yet written in stone. There are plenty of others with the tendency to twisted reasoning who will still try to react.
As soon as you see that photo, you know it's game over. Trump looks like a gladiator in battle versus a dementia ridden frail old man who should be in care. All that was missing was a Bald Eagle flying over.
The Dem's are going to take a beating and then Hunters going to jail. Ukraine war ends, stock market booms.
The three Baltic States, Poland and possibly Finland know full well what to expect if Russia occupies Ukraine. They know too that it would be best to fight Russia in Ukraine, not their own land. There is nothing to stop them mobilising and putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. The threat of nuclear weapons is irrelevant. If Russia is prepared to strike in this territory then they will be prepared to strike in any territory they might choose thus inviting the resultant retaliation of like.
Who knows? It's not like the current war has been easy for Putin. I read somewhere that Hitler thought the conquest of France would consume a million men yet it "only" cost about 28,000. You can see how that might encourage someone but as far as I can tell Ukraine has been very costly for very little gain. People aren't sensible though.
An autocrat like Putin is going to surround himself with people that tell him what he wants to hear, and not necessarily the truth. So what he thought would be a quick coup is now a war of attrition. But his legitimacy relies on strength, so withdrawal or peace with too many concessions would be the end of him.
You are confusing the invasion of France with Operation Barbarossa (invasion of Russia). The current quarter back historians belittle Hitler for his actions in 1941 but most of the Allied command expected him to steam roll right through based in part on the Soviets appalling track record in Finland.
I don't see how you would think I am confusing the invasion of France with Operation Barbarossa with what I wrote. The conquest of France stunned the world as on paper France was Germany's equal or perhaps even stronger. My grandfather was in the BEF and evacuated from Dunkirk. I agree the Allies thought Germany would prevail over the USSR but that was because of the ease in which Western Europe was conquered and the perceived weakness of the USSR. The ease with which France was taken out of the game no doubt influenced the decision to attack the USSR. If Putin had conquered Ukraine easily and captured their weapons and factories like Germany did with France and Czechoslovakia other European nations would have much more to fear. It took even Germany six months to take the whole of Ukraine.
And it took Russia quite a bit longer than that to dislodge the Wehrmacht & Co from Ukraine. The entrance of Japan into proceedings allowed Stalin to re-deploy the Siberian force, and thus came Stalingrad. The Germans fought hard but the ill-fated attack at Kursk, two years after Barbarossa, coincided with Allied landings in Italy and the was the beginning of the end of it , all the way back to Berlin.
Lee Harvey Oswald was a left-wing extremist who, like so many American leftists, found his fellow citizens’ indifference to the political causes that moved him so reprehensible that he determined to punish them by taking the life of the young President so much of the nation admired and loved. Marksmanship was one of Oswald’s few personal accomplishments, and unlike Trump’s would-be assassin, he didn’t miss.
"I'm just a patsy"
- Lee Harvey Oswald
The bully and the outcast, Stuff has a post with pictures of the shooter and a fairly demonic looking Trump juxtaposed; I'm moderately sure Stuff does not appreciate the point that has been made
Maybe Trump will want everyone at public events issued with a side arm to take out shooters?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/21/donald-trump-solution-t…
Which is actually more likely.
Multiple reporters have asked about the presence of guns at the upcoming Republican National Convention.
The event is scheduled in Milwaukee, Wisconsin which is an open carry state - which means local law allows people to carry their firearms in public.
The Secret Service will ban guns within the federal spaces it controls within the convention, but a spokesperson said they cannot control "the soft perimeter outside of our federal jurisdiction".
Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson says that on a local level, the city "banned the items we could ban".
"Banning weapons within the outer perimeter, that is not within our purview," Johnson says.
Even before the attempted assassination on Donald Trump, there were concerns about the presence of guns in the vicinity of the Republican convention.
Trump might negotiate with Putin, but he will not be able to speak for Europe. And Europe will abandon the US as quick as Trump will toss them under a bus if he tries. The Europeans, including NATO have, albeit slowly, come to the realisation of just how much threat Putin really is. they will not now abandon Ukraine, late though that is. Without US aid of munitions, that may force the Europeans to commit forces themselves.
What can Trump do? His rhetoric suggests he will not settle for the status quo, so he can either fold for Putin or do what he did to Kim in North Korea. When Putin rattles his nuclear sabre Trump could choose to meet him head on and tell him that he will root Putin out with nukes if Putin escalates. Putin will be remembered for destroying his country not re-creating Tsarist Russia
If America abandons Ukraine the Europeans will do likewise, realizing that the plight of Ukraine was all due to its stupidity in allying itself with Russia's mortal enemy i.e. the USA. They themselves have nothing to fear from Russia. In any war between Europe and Russia it will be Europe which will be the agressor, as was the case in the 1940's.
The Europeans have realised they cannot abandon Ukraine, because to do so would allow Putin to move closer. NATO is now stronger and more resilient thanks to Putin's actions (the exact opposite of what he wanted to achieve), but if he secures all of Ukraine, and considering his ambitions, what do you think he'll do next? Will Europe quail in fear every time he mentions the NUCLEAR word? I doubt it.
The Europeans have realised they cannot abandon Ukraine, because to do so would allow Putin to move closer.
If Russia were to abandon her objectives in Ukraine it would allow NATO to move closer to her borders. They probably need to hold Crimea in order to be able to influence events in the Black Sea, which is something they would need to do for defensive purposes. And to keep Crimea secure they need to control the southern parts of Ukraine. They probably need Odessa as well, but they haven't got that yet. Ukraine have made no secret of their intention to regain Crimea - by force if necessary - once they they have driven Russia back to her own borders. And NATO would no doubt be eager to help them with such an enterprise.
Has Russia ever attempted to attack Europe since the overthrow of the Tsars. No. So why would they do so now. The idea is absolutely laughable.
It’s not so much invading as regaining. Peter the Great swept aside Sweden and created the huge expanse that Russia was as an empire. Both Napoleon and Wilhelm had a go at that territory but failed although in suing for peace (the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk) the Bolsheviks briefly ceded Ukraine itself and more, to Germany. Estonia then went to war with the Bolsheviks to retain its independence. Finland too was invaded. After WW2 Russia claimed dominance, The Warsaw Pact, over previously independent nations such as Hungary & Czechoslovakia in both of which they suppressed uprisings quite brutally. After that, don’t overlook Russia invaded Afghanistan and failed which led to the downfall of Brezhnev. Putin and henchmen have made no secret that Gorbachev subsequently failed to hold together the then existing sphere of Russian influence and control, and resultantly Russia has been deprived of territory over which it has a right of occupation and it is their ambition, quite overtly expressed, to get it back. So Russia has started on this right next door, Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia the military have ignored their own hard earned experience of how to conduct war in Ukraine. The Dnieper river is a formidable natural barrier and even in the Russian civil war it was found to be extremely difficult to advance northwards through the industrial and urban belt than runs west to east through the Donetsk region. That is why Kharkov in the north is the key and that is why the Wehrmacht and the Red Army fought 4 major battles for possession. With the length of the Dnieper intervening , Russia is not going to succeed in driving westwards until Russia occupies Kharkov. All of the rest of Europe, the NATO nations, know that and such a development will undoubtedly see mobilisation and engagement with Russian forces in Ukraine obviously because for them it is preferable to fight it out there, rather than on their own land.
What a load of distorted BS. NATO already bordered Russia in a number of areas, and now more since Finland and Sweden have joined.
"Has Russia ever attempted to attack Europe since the overthrow of the Tsars. No. So why would they do so now." Actually since the fall of the Soviet Union allowing all the subjugated countries outside of Russia to become independent and free of the KGB jackboot (and how did they become part of the USSR anyway?), Russia has invaded countries, Georgia and the Ukraine. How many countries have invaded Russia since then? Nazi Germany is a unique case and not representative of modern Europe. The bad actor in this scenario is Russia not Europe, and not so funny.
Georgia and Ukraine, lying East of the Black sea, I would not generally regard as being part of Europe. And the Warsaw pact countries were a sort of "buffer zone" created by Stalin to separate Europe from Russia and other Eastern countries, for Russia's protection.
As Bismark is reported as having said: to conquer Russia one would first need to sever Ukraine from Russia. That severance occurred in 2014 so Russia's concern is understandable, the more so since Biden, then VP, along with John McCane and Victoria Nuland, seems to have had a major role in encouraging that severance.
Ukrainian independence was a choice of the Ukrainian people not the US and Europe. Yes there were political plays going on, but in the end it still came down to a popular vote, and the people voted to move west, not north. Corruption, fed by Russia, was rampant in Ukraine, but the people's choice clearly enraged Putin. Corruption remains a problem there, but I think, thanks to the war it is a little easier to expose as corrupt Ukrainians and Russian agents choose sides. That corruption was the barrier to joining NATO. As they root it out the pathway to joining is being cleared.
Bismark came from a different age. No one in the modern world, who wasn't a dictator or autocrat, had aspirations to conquer Russia. Indeed the western view had been that a free and prosperous Russia was the best possible outcome (and that must include a functioning democracy). Unfortunately the only person who seems to have disagreed with that was Putin.
US withdrawal would be the best thing that could happen since it would bring this sorry episode to a swift conclusion. It will not happen however as long as as the US is ruled by a nutcase Russophobe like Joe Biden. Trump may have his faults but at least he seems to favour detente with Russia.
'In a nation that still believes in a God that blesses America.'
True Story
A NZ family member living in the States for many years was asked to give the closing talk at a business networking function, and the closing sentence was always 'God bless America.'
In their nervousness, they inadvertently said, 'God Defend America' as we would say in 'God Defend NZ.'
There was stony silence. Then a voice spoke up and said, 'In NZ you may need God to defend you, but in America, we can defend ourselves.'
The father bought the gun in 2013 apparently. The kid never made the school rifle team. A lousy shot, almost dangerously so reportedly. The AR15 in expert hands is accurate from up to 400 yards. To add to that effectiveness it has a three bullet salvo setting. If the kid had known what to do he would have ripped off as many quick squirts as possible to cover his target, or perhaps he thought he might be able to shoot and run. Likely never will be known what was going on in his head.
Zwifter .You don't know what you are taking about. At 140m the ar15(5.56/223) round is extremely accurate. For anyone who can shoot , a stationary target from the prone position 140 m is "touching ' distance".A sniper rifle' would likely be sighted in at at least double the distance and would probably miss if not compensated for. Serious questions need to be answered re how he was allowed to get this close and not be stopped. Then secret service "diversity "hires also did not acquit themselves well and will likely be fired.
Don. Yep, agree, an easy head shot at 140m. Your theory makes sense that the AR15 was sighted in at a longer range with the shooter probably aiming for a chest shot and the still rising round hitting high. Is a bit strange though that he wouldn't have factored in parabola trajectory effect if he knew he'd be shooting at such close range. Inexperience possibly, or perhaps an unplanned opportunistic attempt.
Remains to be revealed just what practical experience/expertise he had with the weapon. It is a popular rifle with hunters who are not exactly a marksman because they can fire a three bullet grouping off just the one trigger pull. That’s a bob three ways, sort of isn’t it. That he got up on the roof is in itself extraordinary let alone was able to shoot.He was hardly decked out like Rambo though was he. Forensics will reveal what went where but would suggest Trump’s survival is more due to the would be assassin’s deficiencies than anything else. Even so it was, a near run thing, wasn’t it.
Hmm, I'm with Don here Foxy - the AR15 is a very accurate weapon out to quite a long range. One fatal shot should have been easily achievable. They weren't all that popular for recreational hunting here in NZ when they were legal. Yes, no doubt all will be revealed on the shooters experience but safe to say he was incompetent. Compare his botched effort with Marine trained Oswald's skilled shooting with a low quality unzeroed rifle and moving target. Yes, astonishing that he was able to close in on Trump like that. Near run alright, I dislike much about the Don but am mightily relieved for Americas sake that he survived.
Aye and what motivates, what is on the face of it, an ordinary, nondescript youth to commit to such a suicidal heinous act. Recall the attempt on Reagan sprang out of a maniacal impulse to impress an unsuspecting celebrity. Perhaps something similarly stimulated this time too.
Could be, although early indications suggest severe social marginalisation rather than political activist motivation. We ought not to think NZ is immune from similar impulses. I'm not an Ardern fan, considering her easily the worst PM of my lifetime, but am appalled at the vile physical threats she and her family receive. That she requires a constant security detail indicates there are those in our own society who could be capable of similar actions.
I guess time will tell on that comment. Trump got a load of people killed on January 6th. Unfortunately he is going to win the 2024 election, if he doesn't there will be major carnage again. Not sure if it really matters anyway, the USA is in a downward spiral and it cannot be stopped.
When did Russia ever attack Europe (at least since Tsarist days)? In WW2 Russia was on the defensive against Germany. Even Churchill, at the end of the war wanted to continue the war, but against Russia. An "iron curtain", I would imagine, would constitute a pretty good shield.
IMO it would be Ideal if both Bidens and Trumps doctors found something wrong with them that forced them both not to stand, then the USA could have a second chance draw for presidential candidates, and its hard (but not impossible) to imagine them coming up with two worse choices.
I've been making mental notes of the people who say things like "it missed". These people are political radicals who would excuse violence to achieve their political aims. I don't care what you think of Donald Trump, if you think the method for dealing with him is a bullet not the ballot, then you are an extreme radical.
Join the dots. If people are led to believe believe Govts are manipulating election results they will boycott and resort to violent protest, including assassinations. I don't agree Trump is 'entitled' to make such claims. On the contrary I think he has an obligation to refrain from making such inflammatory accusations to the public.
Trump is many disagreeable things but his being labelled a 'literal' nazi by wet liberals is not cause for alarm it's cause for derision, revealing the labellers yawning knowledge vacuum as it does. Agree words cannot be inherently violent but reaction to them certainly can be. High profile speakers and statement issuers cannot pretend innocence and claim immunity from the foreseeable consequences of their words.
Putin, Xi, Kim and Modi must be thrilled at the near certain future for Trump. I don't fancy our chances for the next 50 years.
I can see no point in getting involved in Aukus.
The sane remaining countries of the west need to rearrange themselves without any reliance on the USA. Some of them also need to have a hard look at the way that they are running themselves to try and avoid the USA style mess. A lot less autocratic governance by the elite and a lot more true service in favor of the people.
So you see the BRICs emboldened and as a result 'don't fancy our chances for the next 50 years' but think we ought not to align ourselves with the US despite it being the only pacific power with the means to deter muscular Chinese expansionism. Help from our new 'rearranged' bloc of like minded allied nations might be a little while arriving.
We are not going to get any help from the USA in future. We are kidding ourselves thinking that we will. Just watch what happens to USA "allies" over the next few years.
He is anti Ukraine, anti NATO and just about every other western grouping. He is pro Putin and Xi who he looks up to and aspires to emulate. His latest rhetoric could be taken straight from Hitlers playbook right down to Reich references and his proud boy enforcers (read Hitler's brown shirts). He is solidly supported by his population. He is not some left field freak, so if not him there will be somebody else similar. We are kidding ourselves and need to wake up.
Sounds like you must have missed the sweeping reset the US has made to its pacific strategy in recent years that has seen it pivot strongly towards a far more active involvement in the regions security. NZ has few alignment choices as the two super powers vie for hegemony in our part of the world. The days of Helen Clark's 'benign security environment' have well passed. Neutrality is no longer an option.
Well he’s a fan of the Royal Family ( not the LA branch though) and this time round he may have less admiration for Putin in so much that he will see himself now as the self-ordained title of the indisputable heavy weight political leader of the world. There is though now no discernible answer to settle Ukraine. The European Nato members know now what Putin’s strategy is, and that Ukraine cannot be given up and they will mobilise and fight there should it become necessary.
My pick is that European boots on UKR soil will likely not be necessary for some time at least. Putins buffer zone creation offensive has largely failed. UKRs attritional strategy of modest incremental withdrawal while inflicting horrendous losses on Russian personnel and materiel will soon force a much depleted Russian offensive force to a standstill. The significant FAB guided bomb advantage RU has enjoyed is soon about to be negated when UKR gets a more effective F16 delivery platform for its own guided bombs such as the US JDAM family. There's about to be a significant shift in the the aerial war balance.
The USA is no better than China anymore, their contenders are all fuelled by millions of dollars from the Elite. The public just get to vote for one puppet or the other puppet while the quality of life for Joe Average goes down the toilet. Seems the same all over the world, the leaders at the top are getting worse by the year. Probably the only good thing Trump will do is stop wasting money in Ukraine and try and sort the mess out in their own back yard.
From a historical perspective, such high-profile political violence often leads to a hardening of partisan divides, increased political polarization, and a heightened sense of mistrust in democratic institutions.
We saw similar dynamics play out after the attempted assassination of President Reagan in 1981 and the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963.
In the current climate of intense political polarization, this event is likely to exacerbate existing tensions and lead to increasingly adversarial and uncompromising political rhetoric and behavior including and up to a point of civilian unrest or civil war.
There may be calls for expanded security measures, crackdowns on perceived extremist elements, and a general sense of fear and suspicion.
Depending on the specific circumstances and the political fallout, this event could also have significant implications for the balance of power, with potentially heated debates over issues like presidential succession, the role of the military and law enforcement, and the boundaries of executive authority.
Historically, such events have also sometimes been accompanied by conspiracy theories, misinformation campaigns, and a general erosion of trust in the political system.
This dynamic could further inflame divisions and make it harder for the country to heal and move forward in a constructive manner.
Ultimately, the long-term political ramifications will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the public's response, the actions of political leaders, and the broader socioeconomic and cultural context.
It is a situation that will require careful and considered leadership, as well as a commitment to upholding democratic norms and institutions.
This may also effect how other countries leaders appear to approach and do business with the United States.
The USA has an unquenchable appetite for conspiracy. We lived there during 911. Our usual gas station was manned usually by Indian Sikhs. They had to get out of it for a month or so. The local paper(s) ran column after column concerning “fifth column” types that had been identified in communities at every point of the compass. None of them were factual.
FG. Yes, I recall that. But significantly, blowback against the US muslim community in terms of violence to people and property was very limited. As an aside I was in NY on business not too long after 9/11 and my general impression from the people I met was predominately sorrow but also much puzzlement as to why it had happened.
We lived about two hours drive away and oddly were due in NY that day and would have been some way away down near Central Park but the occasion got cancelled the week before. On the day in our locality it went quiet, very quiet and subdued. But not for long the city and then the nation took the punch as if it was Rocky Marciano. The terrorists chose symbolic targets but those can be rebuilt and America can build. Sometime later came the random sniper shootings around Washington DC. That sort of subversive activity is actually more frightening to any one community. The thing is in America it is so vast that flooding in say Houston, or a hurricane in New Orleans doesn’t much interrupt activity and society anywhere up north, for example. Tend to overlook that ten US States in their own right have economies larger or equal to Russia and a few more not far behind. NZ’s economy in size equates roughly to that of the city of Phoenix, AZ.
I am going to postulate here on the possibility that after nearly taking a bullet, and having a man die immediately behind him as he shielded his family, that Trump might actually mature somewhat and become more than the petulant child he seems to us. this morning's nomination for a Vice- president is a little surprising considering his history, but offers some hope.
But in that photo above it is reported he is calling to the crowd "Fight, Fight". But he needs to understand, regardless of the optics, just what all the connotations of that word are. After all it could be argued that the shooter was doing just that. Words count and the President is very much expected to understand the implications of that and choose his words very carefully. Not something that Trump has much of a history of.
Trump appeals to the lowest common denominator...the kind of morons that invaded the Capitol and vandalised it...with his tacit approval.
He even gave a thumbs up to probably the planet's worst dictator...North Korea. A tyrant that imprisons millions and has regular public executions. While Fatboy lives high on the hog, one of the most despicable individuals since Adolf Hitler.
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