Brian Easton says the Coalition Government has already used up what first-term room it had in the economy

This is a re-post of an article originally published on pundit.co.nz. It is here with permission.

There was no less razzamatazz about the 2024 Budget than about earlier ones. Once again the underlying economic analysis got lost. It deserves more attention.

Just to remind you, the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU), is the Treasury’s independent assessment and so can be analysed by other competent economists (although they may disagree with the underlying assumptions).

Moreover, the Treasury economists will be keen to get their forecasts right. Their changes between the September 2023 Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) and the May 2024  BEFU are the consequence of new evidence, not a change of political leadership. If the new minister gives a direction – as Nicola Willis did over the debt target – the Treasury reports the change and provides sufficient information for the analyst to trace its effect. In summary, EFUs are not politicians’ documents, but professional economists’ ones.

I am going to compare the May 2024 BEFU with the September 2023 PREFU because the earlier forecast is what the National Opposition had when it made the political commitments that have shaped their economic policy decisions in government. (Treasury always provides detailed comparisons with its previous forecast; in this case the December 2023 Half Year EFU (HYEFU).)

As reported in an earlier column, there had been much bad economics news coming in. That is reflected in the revising of the economic forecasts. PREFU23 expected a stagnation in the economy from (June year) 2023 to the middle of 2025. The Treasury forecast in BEFU24 rolls that trend out another 18 odd months to end 2026. The politically alert will observe that that means the Coalition Government is expected to be in charge of a stagnating economy for its entire first term. (In my judgement this is not particularly the fault of this government nor of the previous one.)

Let me tell you a secret about economic forecasters. They sweat to get their forecasts of the next six or so quarters as right as they can. Further out, they relax a little and tend to be more optimistic than perhaps is warranted. We all do. Pressed, I think we’d say something like, ‘the forecasting fan is getting wide the further out we go. There are so many uncertainties. So don't take the forecast precisely; it is there to help you think about the future’. I would add ‘yep probably we are too optimistic – that is the human condition’. The EFUs offer upside and downside alternative forecasts; I take more notice of the downsides.

BEFU24 nicely illustrates this with the discussion on its productivity assumptions. I remember looking at an earlier EFU and thinking the productivity growth assumptions seemed high. There has been hardly any growth for ten years, although the Covid era data jumps around a bit. BEFU23 assumed that productivity growth would return to the growing pre-2012 trend. I wondered what Treasury knew that I didn’t.

The productivity trend does not affect short-term forecasts too much but it matters increasingly further out. Since the BEFU23 forecast productivity has remained stagnant. In response BEFU24 has a productivity track more like the stagnation of the last decade. The one-page discussion is worth reading because it probably summarises a vigorous internal discussion. (Good on Treasury for having one.) The lowering of the productivity track adds to the gloomy prognosis.

A key purpose for Treasury forecasts is to get a good estimate of tax revenue which affects the size of the government deficit and the borrowing program. The poorer expected performance of the economy between PREFU23 and BEFU24 lowered expected tax revenue by about 3 percent or $16.6b in the four years from 2023/4 to 2026/7.

The Coalition Government’s tax changes reduced revenue by another $7.6b (net). The bulk of those reductions represented promises made in opposition when PREFU23 reflected the understanding of the economy. So the incoming government faced a far bigger challenge than it expected, especially as the new Minister of Finance promised to resign if she did not implement her promised income tax cuts.

She said that she would fund them without increased borrowing. Not true. PREFU23 forecast net debt at $190b in June 2027. The BEFU24 forecast is $205b. Some of the loss of revenue has been clawed back by cutting government spending, but the net debt is $15b higher.  It is arithmetically reasonable to say that the tax cuts are paid for from additional borrowing.

The Minister presented a table which purported to show that her tax cuts are not being funded by higher borrowing. For an accountant the tabulation is specious because it divides the financial transactions into separate accounts. It’s a bit like saying ‘I’ve paid for the overseas trip out of household income, but I’ve had to borrow to pay for the groceries’.

There amounts to a further accounting trick to keep the projected borrowing down. A private-sector forecaster will try to assess further future expenditure such as election promises not yet implemented (such as the expenditure on cancer drugs), spending to meet the unexpected (such as damage from natural catastrophes) and the effect of new and revised policy development (I would be making an allowance for the likelihood of some expenditure cuts becoming unstuck; I shan’t be surprised if they discover implementing their ‘social investment’ proposals proves very expensive in the short term).

The Treasury forecasts only future spending which has been agreed by cabinet. However, it includes a contingency ‘operating allowance’ for potential spending. It amounted to $9.75b for the three years to 2026/7 in PREFU23 but only $7.2b in BEFU24. That reduces the projected June 2027 debt level by over $2.5b.

Treasury is nervous about the projected operating allowance, warning that it will be difficult to keep within the allocated amount. The Minister’s response is that she will be making more spending cuts. They will add to the pain of the last round of cuts and while smaller will in some ways be harder, since the easier ones have been made.

In summary, the Coalition Government has already used up what first-term room it had in the economy. Its tax cuts amount to a free cup of coffee once a fortnight to a Superannuitant. Free beer will have to wait until after the 2026 election. The politics of BEFU24's economic strategy belongs to the next column.

*Brian Easton, an independent scholar, is an economist, social statistician, public policy analyst and historian. He was the Listener economic columnist from 1978 to 2014. This is a re-post of an article originally published on pundit.co.nz. It is here with permission.